Core Viewpoint - Baidu's second-quarter advertising revenue is expected to fall short of Deutsche Bank's previous forecasts due to a faster-than-anticipated shift in search behavior towards generative AI search [1] Group 1: Advertising Revenue - The transition from traditional search to generative AI search has impacted the commercialization aspect of Baidu's advertising revenue [1] - Deutsche Bank has lowered its 2025 revenue forecast for Baidu by 4% to reflect a weaker advertising outlook [1] Group 2: AI and Cloud Business - Baidu is exploring commercialization strategies for new AI-generated search traffic, but improvements in advertising revenue may take time [1] - The cloud business segment is expected to maintain strong momentum, supported by sustained strong demand for generative AI and its underlying models [1]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a five-day decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,339 points, down 0.02%[19] - The Hang Seng Index fell 0.53% to 23,258 points, while the KOSPI in South Korea rose 1.2% to 2,670 points[24] - U.S. markets saw all three major indices decline, with the Dow Jones down 0.58% at 42,098.7 points and the S&P 500 down 0.56% at 5,888.6 points[12][8] Economic Indicators - Global economic growth is expected to continue its downward trend in the second half of 2025, with inflation becoming a key variable due to tariffs potentially causing a rebound in U.S. CPI[6] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates no more than twice this year, with a possible cut in September[6] Commodity and Currency Trends - Oil prices rebounded over 1%, with WTI crude oil rising to $61.84 per barrel and Brent crude to $64.90 per barrel[30] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.4%, while gold prices slightly declined, reflecting a cautious market sentiment[30][29] Corporate Earnings - NVIDIA reported Q1 revenue of $44.1 billion, exceeding expectations and showing a 69% year-over-year increase, with data center revenue up 73%[10] - Baidu's cloud business showed strong growth, although its online advertising faced challenges during the AI transition[10] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on trading opportunities across various asset classes amid high volatility, with a preference for gold over copper and oil[6] - The technology sector, particularly companies involved in AI, is expected to be a key investment theme in the latter half of 2025[17]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's previous expectation of a rebound in Baidu's core advertising business this year may be delayed, as the growth rate for core advertising in the second quarter is likely to further slow down [1] Advertising Business - Analysts, including Gary Yu, predict a 10% year-over-year decline in Baidu's advertising business for the second quarter, primarily due to the ongoing transformation towards AI advertising [1] - Confidence in the recovery path for the advertising business continues to weaken amid soft revenue and increased investments in AI and autonomous taxi services, which may pressure profit margins [1] Cloud Business - The cloud business is expected to maintain a growth rate of 20%-30%, but its scale remains limited compared to peers [1] Price Target Adjustment - The target price for Baidu's American Depositary Receipts has been lowered from $100 to $95 [1]