分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨赛特新材（688398.SH） [Table_Title] 关注国内冰箱能效标准升级带来的景气增长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司披露 2025H1 报：实现收入 4.69 亿，同比增长 3.7%，归属净利润 0.12 亿，同比下降 78%。 [Table_Author] 范超 李金宝 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490516040002 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BVZ972 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 赛特新材（688398.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 关注国内冰箱能效标准升级带来的景气增长 公司披露 2025H1 报：实现收入 4.69 亿，同比增长 3.7%，归属净利润 0.12 亿，同比下降 78%。 事件评论 ⚫ 预计 2025-2026 年业绩 0.6、1.4 亿元，对应 PE 为 58、28 倍，买入评级。 风险提示 1、VIP 板渗透不及预期； 2、真空玻璃进展不及预期。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Saitex New Materials Industry Overview - The new refrigerator energy efficiency standards will be implemented on June 1, 2026, significantly raising efficiency level requirements. The previous national standard's first-level efficiency will only correspond to the fifth level under the new standards, prompting refrigerator manufacturers to adopt VIP (Vacuum Insulation Panels) to enhance volume efficiency and insulation performance. [2][4][11] Key Points and Arguments - The new standards introduce the concept of volume efficiency, directly impacting refrigerator energy consumption calculations and increasing the application of VIP panels, which are essential for high-efficiency refrigerators. Each refrigerator requires approximately 2-5 square meters of VIP material, depending on size and efficiency level. [2][6][7] - There is a significant difference in VIP panel penetration rates between domestic and international markets, with Japan and South Korea at 70%-80%, Europe and the US at 40%-50%, and China at only 20%-30%. The new standards are expected to gradually increase the average usage area of VIP panels in domestic refrigerators. [2][8] - Existing compressor and electronic control technologies have limited potential for improving energy efficiency. Saitex New Materials, as a VIP panel supplier, stands to benefit from the new energy efficiency standards, as its products can effectively support refrigerator manufacturers in meeting these standards. However, there has not yet been a large-scale production line commitment from refrigerator manufacturers to produce new models incorporating Saitex products. [2][3][17] Market Dynamics - Saitex New Materials holds a significant market share among leading refrigerator manufacturers, with some being sole suppliers, reflecting recognition of its product quality and scale advantages. However, the overall market share has not yet reached 50%. [3][18][19] - Sales and order conditions for VIP versions have remained strong in the first five months of the year, driven by energy efficiency improvements, an increase in innovative products, and national subsidy policies. [20] - The production capacity utilization rate for Saitex in the first five months of the year was nearly full, with the Anhui production base's utilization rate improving but not yet reaching headquarters levels. [21][22] Future Developments - Saitex currently operates three vacuum glass production lines, with an expected annual capacity of 500,000 pieces in the second half of the year, primarily focused on home appliances and construction materials. [23] - The company plans to expand into new areas over the next three to five years, including insulation for new energy vehicle batteries, industrial equipment, and construction materials, aiming for diversification in products and customers to promote revenue and profit growth. [24] Additional Insights - The new energy efficiency standards will not require major adjustments in refrigerator manufacturing processes, as Saitex's VIP panels are integrated into the internal structure of refrigerators, necessitating only minor procedural adjustments. [15] - The acceptance of VIP panels among mid-range refrigerator manufacturers remains low, with high-end models (priced above 5,000 yuan) being more likely to adopt VIP technology due to cost considerations. [15][16]

Summary of the Conference Call for Saitex New Materials Industry Overview - Saitex New Materials is a leading company in the Vacuum Insulation Panel (VIP) industry, benefiting from the improvement of refrigerator energy efficiency standards and changes in domestic consumption structure, leading to high growth in sales and revenue in 2023 [2][8] - The new Chinese refrigerator energy efficiency standards will be implemented on June 1, 2026, which are stricter and expected to improve product quality and increase the penetration of VIP materials, replacing traditional polyurethane foam insulation materials [2][5] Core Insights and Arguments - In 2024, domestic VIP revenue is expected to grow significantly, but the increase in domestic revenue proportion will lead to a decline in gross margin, with the net profit margin decreasing by 4.37% year-on-year to approximately 8% [2][9] - The global VIP market sales are approximately $1.7 billion, with Europe accounting for about 40% and China and the US together accounting for about 45%, with the Chinese market size around 2.2 billion RMB [4] - The company has developed self-research technologies for core materials, barrier films, and adsorbents, launching innovative products such as ultra-thin VIPs and shell-type VIPs, entering the automotive battery insulation field [2][7] - The company has achieved self-sufficiency in adsorbent production, effectively reducing costs, having started research in 2008 and fully replacing imports by 2015 [2][12] Financial Performance - Saitex New Materials has shown stable revenue and profit growth, with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45% and 75% from 2016 to 2021 [8] - In 2023, the company’s sales and revenue rebounded strongly due to the increase in demand for VIPs driven by energy efficiency standards [8] - The expected net profits for 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 105 million RMB, 143 million RMB, and 182 million RMB, maintaining a "buy" rating [23] Market Position and Customer Structure - Saitex New Materials is a leading player in the VIP industry, with 8 out of the top 10 global refrigerator manufacturers as clients, 6 of which consider Saitex as a major supplier [7][13] - The company has a high customer retention rate due to stringent certification processes, making it difficult for clients to switch suppliers [13] Product Innovation and Capacity Expansion - The company has launched ultra-thin VIPs and shell-type VIPs, leading the VIP 2.0 era, and has expanded production capacity significantly [7][21] - A subsidiary, Weiyaji, was established in 2022 to enter the vacuum glass market, with an investment of 854 million RMB to build a production capacity of 2 million square meters [4][21] Cost Structure and Cash Flow - The overall expense structure of the company is showing a downward trend, with stable sales expenses due to high customer concentration [10] - Cash flow has remained stable, maintaining over 40 million RMB since 2018 [10] Research and Development Progress - The company has shifted from aluminum films to more efficient non-aluminum films (EVOH composite materials) and has successfully developed superior performance nano-films [11] - The company’s R&D expenses have remained stable at around 5% from 2019 to the first quarter of 2025, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [12] Market Expansion and Future Prospects - The company is exploring new markets beyond refrigerators, including new energy vehicles, energy storage, high-temperature appliances, and LNG insulation [14][16] - The potential market size for insulation materials for new energy vehicle battery packs is estimated at approximately 480 million RMB if 50% of existing products are replaced [16] Conclusion - Saitex New Materials is well-positioned in the VIP industry with strong growth prospects driven by regulatory changes and innovative product development, despite facing challenges related to profit margins and market competition [2][9][23]

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating report indicates that Fujian Sait New Materials Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Sait New Materials") maintains a stable credit rating of A+ due to its technical and industrial chain advantages in the vacuum insulation board industry, despite facing challenges such as declining net profit and increased production costs in 2024 [3][5][6]. Financial Performance - As of March 2025, the total assets of the company are 20.87 billion, with a net profit of 0.10 billion, showing a decline from 0.77 billion in 2024 [3][4]. - The company's total debt stands at 6.75 billion, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 37.05% [4][5]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 is reported at 0.05 billion, down from 0.66 billion in 2023 [3][4]. Business Operations - The company is primarily engaged in the research, production, and sales of vacuum insulation boards, which are mainly used in refrigerators and freezers [9][18]. - In 2024, the company achieved a production volume of 1,058.81 million square meters of vacuum insulation boards, a 15.47% increase from the previous year [21]. - The sales revenue from vacuum insulation boards accounted for over 98% of the total revenue, with a sales increase of 11.39% in 2024 [16][18]. Market Environment - The demand for vacuum insulation boards is expected to grow due to the upgrade of energy efficiency standards in the home appliance sector and government policies promoting the replacement of old appliances [12][13]. - The company faces risks related to high customer concentration, with the top five customers accounting for over 65% of total sales [18][20]. - The international sales revenue constitutes 43.09% of the total, exposing the company to foreign exchange fluctuations and international trade tensions [6][7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to expand its production capacity and improve its product structure with the completion of new manufacturing projects [5][22]. - The credit rating agency maintains a stable outlook for the company, anticipating continued business sustainability and revenue growth as new capacities come online [5][6]. - However, the company must navigate challenges related to production costs, market competition, and the successful implementation of new projects [24][25].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 934 million yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.16%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 77.16 million yuan, a decline of 27.27% year-on-year [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 246 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10%, but the net profit decreased by 65.96% to 9.758 million yuan [2][4]. - The revenue performance is relatively stable, but profit performance is poor, mainly due to losses from certain subsidiaries. The company's VIP revenue for the year is expected to be 920 million yuan, with a 13% increase in sales volume [4][11]. - The company anticipates that new business segments will provide incremental growth by 2025, particularly in the ultra-thin VIP market for battery insulation in electric vehicles [11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects total revenue of 934 million yuan for 2024, with a gross profit margin of approximately 29% [4][15]. - The projected net profit for 2025 and 2026 is 132 million yuan and 173 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 18 and 14 [5][15]. Market Dynamics - Domestic sales are expected to reach 530 million yuan in 2024, a 41% increase, while international sales are projected to decline by 13% to 400 million yuan due to geopolitical tensions affecting logistics and shipping costs [4][11]. - The company is seeing improved order signals driven by the "old-for-new" policy in China, particularly in the refrigerator segment [11]. Product Development - The company has successfully applied its VIP boards in the battery insulation sector for electric vehicles, with recognition from major automotive and battery manufacturers [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue increase in 2024 and Q1 2025, driven by the vacuum insulation board business, but faced a significant decline in net profit due to rising costs and decreased gross margin [1][2]. Revenue Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 934 million yuan in 2024 and 246 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 11.2% and 10.1% respectively [1]. - The revenue growth in 2024 was primarily driven by the vacuum insulation board segment, which generated 915 million yuan in revenue with a sales volume of 9.97 million square meters, reflecting year-on-year increases of 11.4% and 13.1% respectively [1]. - Quarterly revenue for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 was 265 million yuan and 246 million yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 6.9% and 10.1%, attributed to increased demand in downstream home appliance sectors [1]. Profitability and Cost Analysis - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 29.1%, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by a decline in high-margin export sales and rising raw material costs [2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 25.1%, down 9.4 percentage points year-on-year, but improved by 1.5 percentage points from Q4 2024, likely due to efficiency gains at a subsidiary [2]. - The operating expense ratio for 2024 was 18.0%, up 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by increased management and financial expenses [2]. - The net profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 8.3% and 4.0%, reflecting declines of 4.4 and 8.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Cash Flow and Investment - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was 65.65 million yuan, down 12.7% year-on-year, primarily due to lower profitability [3]. - In Q1 2025, the net cash flow from operating activities was 5.11 million yuan, a significant decline of 82.3% year-on-year, mainly due to reduced tax refunds [3]. - The company invested 324 million yuan and 58 million yuan in fixed and intangible assets in 2024 and Q1 2025, representing year-on-year increases of 22.4% and a decrease of 35.2% respectively, indicating ongoing expansion projects [3]. Future Outlook - The company is a leading provider of systematic solutions in the vacuum insulation energy-saving sector, with ongoing advancements in product and process iterations, and new application developments [3]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 98 million yuan, 137 million yuan, and 183 million yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 25, 18, and 13 times, reflecting a cautious outlook due to margin pressures [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue growth is recovering, driven primarily by its main business of vacuum insulation panels, which achieved a revenue of 915 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.4% [8] - The gross profit margin is under pressure due to a decrease in export sales and rising costs, with the overall gross margin for 2024 at 29.1%, down 3.9 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company is actively expanding production capacity and optimizing product processes, with significant investments in fixed and intangible assets [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 933.54 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.16% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be 77.16 million yuan, a decrease of 27.27% year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 0.46 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.43 [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to 1,138.94 million yuan by 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 22% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to recover to 97.92 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth of 26.90% [1] - The projected EPS for 2025 is 0.58 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 24.76 [1] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is 14.45 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 2,424.91 million yuan [5] - The stock has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.35 [5] Operational Insights - The company is focusing on new application development, particularly in the field of battery insulation, which is expected to drive future growth [8] - The company is also working on the installation and debugging of new production equipment, aiming for trial production in the first half of 2025 [8]