光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日市场全天窄幅震荡，三大指数涨跌互现。个股跌多涨少，沪深京三市近 | | | | 3000 股飘绿，今日成交 2.12 万亿。截止收盘沪指涨 0.13%，深成指涨 0.02%， | | | | 创业板指跌 0.37%。近期各部位密集出台经济调控政策，对指数形成基本面 | | | | 支撑。近日，发改委召开国新办发布会，表示：（1）研究设立国家级并购基 | | | | 金 加强政府投资、基金布局规划；（2）综合整治"内卷式"竞争，将进一步 | | | | 规范地方经济促进行为；（3）正在谋划推进一批"十五五"时期高技术产业 | | | | 标志性引领性重大工程等内容。上周，央行将下调各类结构性货币政策工具 | | | 股指 | 利率 25BP。结构性货币政策工具以定向支持社会特定融资需求为主，科技 | 震荡 | | | 创新、普惠养老、碳减排等近期股市热点题材均涵盖其中。本次降息体现了 | | | | 央行在保持总量稳定的基础上，对于特定 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index futures: Volatile [1] - Treasury bond futures: Relatively strong [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market continued to fluctuate, with the Wind All - A index down 0.23% and a trading volume of 3.26 trillion yuan. The food and beverage sector led the gains. Various economic control policies have provided fundamental support for the index. The central bank's interest rate cut on structural monetary policy tools helps guide funds into relevant sectors and push up valuations. The market has entered a high - level volatile mode, and short - term fluctuations have increased. In the medium and long term, the risk of a significant decline in the index is low [1]. - Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. In the short term, due to the continuous introduction of growth - stabilizing policies, the bond market lacks the impetus for continuous strengthening, and the pattern of interest rate range - bound fluctuations continues [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Research Views Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market fluctuated. The CSI 1000 index fell 0.8%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.97%, the SSE 300 index rose 0.76%, and the SSE 50 index rose 1.65%. Recent economic control policies have provided fundamental support. The central bank's interest rate cut on structural monetary policy tools helps guide funds into relevant sectors. The adjustment of the minimum margin ratio for margin trading has increased risk - aversion sentiment, and the market has entered a high - level volatile mode [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 354 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 143.8 billion yuan. In the short term, the bond market lacks the impetus for continuous strengthening, and the interest rate range - bound fluctuation pattern continues [2] Daily Price Changes - For stock index futures: IH rose 1.97%, IF rose 1.08%, IC fell 1.21%, and IM fell 0.58%. For stock indexes: the SSE 50 rose 1.65%, the SSE 300 rose 0.76%, the CSI 500 fell 0.97%, and the CSI 1000 fell 0.80%. For treasury bond futures: TS remained unchanged, TF rose 0.00%, T rose 0.04%, and TL rose 0.07% [3] Market News - In the context of interest rate decline and the "relocation" of residents' deposits, "fixed - income +" funds have become popular again. As of the end of 2025, the scale of "fixed - income +" funds reached 2.74 trillion yuan, a record high, and secondary bond funds contributed the main increment. In 2026, "fixed - income +" products are still expected to be an important tool for funds to enter the market [5] Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and the monthly basis trends of IH, IF, IC, IM [7][8][9][10][11] Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, the inter - period spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [14][15][16][18][19][22] Exchange Rates - The report presents the central parity rates of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, the 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the US dollar and the euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, the euro against the US dollar, the pound against the US dollar, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen [24][25][26][28][29]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced continued fluctuations, with Wind All A index down by 0.23% and a trading volume of 3.26 trillion yuan, while the food and beverage sector led the gains [9] - The CSI 1000 index fell by 0.8%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 0.97%, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.76%, and the SSE 50 index increased by 1.65% [9] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced, providing fundamental support for the indices, including the establishment of a national-level merger fund and the regulation of local economic promotion behaviors [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to advance significant high-tech industry projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [9] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25 basis points, aimed at supporting specific financing needs in sectors like technological innovation and carbon reduction [9] - This rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, enhancing their valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [9] Market Sentiment - The recent adjustment in the margin requirement for financing securities from 80% to 100% has increased risk-averse sentiment among investors, leading to a high-level fluctuation mode in the market [9] - The current bull market is driven by breakthroughs in technology sectors and geopolitical uncertainties, with a low risk of significant index declines in the medium to long term [9] Bond Market - The bond futures market saw slight increases, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.07% and the 10-year main contract up by 0.06% [10] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 354 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4%, maintaining a stable liquidity environment [10][11] Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a peak of 5,594 USD/ounce before a rapid decline, indicating high market bullish sentiment but also the risk of profit-taking [11] - The gold-silver ratio is around 46.2, with significant volatility expected in silver prices, while platinum and palladium are experiencing high-level fluctuations [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market was in high - level oscillation yesterday. Wind All - A dropped 0.68% with a trading volume of 3.28 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 Index fell 1.24%, the CSI 500 Index declined 0.97%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.57%, and the SSE 300 Index increased 0.1%. Recent economic regulation policies provide fundamental support. The central bank cut the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools by 25BP last week, which helps guide funds into relevant sectors and push up valuations in the long - run. The adjustment of the minimum margin ratio for margin trading may increase risk - aversion sentiment. The market is in high - level oscillation with increased short - term volatility, and the risk of a significant index decline is low in the medium - to - long - term. The overall view is "oscillation" [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year main contract rose 0.20%, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.02%. The central bank conducted a 1505 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase on January 26. After the central bank's structural interest - rate cut, fiscal policies continue to exert force. In the context of continuous introduction of growth - stabilizing policies, the bond market lacks the driving force for continuous strengthening, and the pattern of interest - rate range oscillation continues. The overall view is "relatively strong" [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 26, 2026, compared with January 23, IH rose 0.67% (20.4 points), IF increased 0.22% (10.2 points), IC dropped 2.17% ( - 188.2 points), and IM declined 2.67% ( - 227.4 points) [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 rose 0.57% (17.4 points), the SSE 300 increased 0.10% (4.5 points), the CSI 500 fell 0.97% ( - 83.5 points), and the CSI 1000 declined 1.24% ( - 105.3 points) [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.03% ( - 0.026 points), TF dropped 0.03% ( - 0.03 points), T declined 0.01% ( - 0.015 points), and TL rose 0.19% (0.21 points) [4]. 3.2 Market News - The ChiNext Index fell more than 1%, the SSE Composite Index dropped 0.2%, and the SZSE Component Index declined 0.81%. Sectors such as semiconductor chips, commercial spaceflight, robotics, and AI applications led the decline. Nearly 4000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets fell [6]. - In 2025, domestic residents' travel trips reached 65.22 billion, an increase of 9.07 billion compared with the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. Among them, urban residents' domestic travel trips were 49.96 billion, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%; rural residents' domestic travel trips were 15.26 billion, a year - on - year increase of 22.6% [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Contract Trends**: Charts show the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts from January 2025 to January 2026 [8]. - **Basis Trends**: Charts present the trends of the current - month basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM from January 2025 to January 2026 [9][11]. 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Contract and Yield Trends**: Charts display the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts and treasury bond spot yields from January 2025 to January 2026 [15]. - **Basis, Spread, and Interest - rate Trends**: Charts show the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, cross - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest - rates from January 2024 to January 2026 [16][19][23]. 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - **Exchange - rate Trends**: Charts illustrate the trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange - rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen from January 2025 to January 2026 [25][26][29][30]. 3.4 Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. His futures practice qualification number is F3060829, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0015271 [32]. - Wang Dongying, an equity index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index financial report analysis, and market fund - flow tracking. His futures practice qualification number is F03087149, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0019537 [32].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that in 2025, China is expected to establish 70,392 new foreign-invested enterprises, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.1%, while the actual utilized foreign capital is projected to be 747.69 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 9.5% [1] - In terms of industry, the actual utilized foreign capital in the manufacturing sector is 185.51 billion yuan, while the service sector sees an actual utilization of 545.12 billion yuan [1] - High-tech industries are expected to attract 241.77 billion yuan in actual foreign investment, with significant year-on-year growth in specific sectors: e-commerce services (75%), medical instruments and equipment manufacturing (42.1%), and aerospace equipment manufacturing (22.9%) [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of investment sources, actual investments from Switzerland, the UAE, and the UK have increased by 66.8%, 27.3%, and 15.9% respectively [2]

在全球经济增长乏力、不确定性持续上升的背景下，中国经济走向正成为国际社会高度关注的重要议 题。 无论是在国际货币基金组织最新发布的《世界经济展望》中，还是在19日启幕的达沃斯论坛上，中国经 济都是全球关注的焦点。 回望2025年，在复杂多变的内外部环境中，中国经济交出了一份亮眼的"成绩单"：全年经济总量迈上 140万亿元新台阶，经济增速达到5%。 此前，中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平在接受南方财经记者采访时表示，在内需偏弱、外部风险增加 的情况下，能保持5%左右的增速并不容易，足以体现中国经济的韧性。他指出，最值得关注的重点之 一是结构的变化——高技术产业和战略性新兴产业增速明显快于传统产业，正在为经济注入新动能，推 动经济向更高质量方向发展。 从国际视角看，渣打银行财富管理部全球首席投资总监布思哲在接受南方财经记者采访时指出，通胀已 经出现企稳回升的迹象，这对中国经济是一个"很重要的积极信号"。因为名义GDP的改善不仅能缓解债 务压力，也能增强投资和消费的动力，让经济更有"持续性"。 从数据层面看，2025年工业、服务业回升态势稳健，消费与外贸也保持韧性。连平认为，出口的结构在 优化，服务消费和新型消费增长 ...

美国高级经济学家大卫·布莱尔（David Blair）、复旦大学管理学院科创中心首席经济学家邵 宇，以及招商基金首席经济学家李湛，在本期《全球财经连线》中，围绕中国经济运行的内在 逻辑与未来增长动能，进行了深入解读。 此前，中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平在接受南方财经记者采访时表示，在内需偏弱、外部 风险增加的情况下，能保持5%左右的增速并不容易，足以体现中国经济的韧性。他指出，最 值得关注的重点之一是结构的变化——高技术产业和战略性新兴产业增速明显快于传统产业， 正在为经济注入新动能，推动经济向更高质量方向发展。 从国际视角看，渣打银行财富管理部全球首席投资总监布思哲在接受南方财经记者采访时指 出，通胀已经出现企稳回升的迹象，这对中国经济是一个"很重要的积极信号"。因为名义GDP 的改善不仅能缓解债务压力，也能增强投资和消费的动力，让经济更有"持续性"。 从数据层面看，2025年工业、服务业回升态势稳健，消费与外贸也保持韧性。连平认为，出口 的结构在优化，服务消费和新型消费增长较快，高技术产业的比重在提升，这些都在成为新的 增长支撑。 记者丨 杨雨莱 李依农 编辑丨施诗 在全球经济增长乏力、不确定性持续上升 ...

Economic Growth - In 2025, GDP is projected to grow by 5.0% year-on-year, aligning with the initial economic growth target set at the beginning of the year[8] - In Q4 2025, GDP reached 387,911 billion yuan, growing by 4.5% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from Q3 and 0.9 percentage points from the same period in 2024[19] - The industrial added value in December 2025 grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.9%[22] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment in 2025 decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the previous period[11] - Social retail sales in December 2025 grew by 0.9% year-on-year, with an annual growth of 3.7%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from 2024[34] - The per capita disposable income of residents in 2025 increased by 5.0% year-on-year, reflecting a downward trend in income growth[34] Trade and Inflation - In December 2025, total exports amounted to 357.78 billion USD, increasing by 6.6% year-on-year, while imports reached 243.64 billion USD, up by 5.7%[42] - The trade surplus in December 2025 was 114.14 billion USD, indicating a recovery in bilateral trade with Europe[42] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December 2025 rose by 0.8% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 1.9%[55]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese government's proactive measures to stimulate domestic demand and investment in 2026, focusing on policies aimed at enhancing consumer spending and supporting emerging industries. Group 1: Economic Policies and Strategies - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is planning to implement significant high-tech industry projects and develop a strategy for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [1][4] - The NDRC emphasizes strengthening the domestic circulation and adapting to the trend of demand upgrading, in conjunction with the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation [1] - A comprehensive package of policies was released by the Ministry of Finance, including optimizing personal consumption loan subsidies and implementing special guarantees for private investment [2][11] Group 2: Consumer Spending Initiatives - Promoting consumption is a key focus for 2026, with policies aimed at increasing residents' income and optimizing consumption supply [4][8] - The government has allocated 625 billion yuan to support the "trade-in" policy for consumer goods, which has already been initiated in several provinces [4] - The personal consumption loan subsidy policy allows residents to enjoy a 1% interest subsidy on loans used for consumption, including credit card installment payments [7][8] Group 3: Support for Private Investment - The Ministry of Finance's package includes four policies specifically aimed at stimulating private investment, such as loan subsidies for small and micro enterprises and a special guarantee plan for private investment [11][12] - The new policies aim to reduce financing costs for enterprises and enhance profitability, thereby encouraging private investment [11][12] - The government is also focusing on releasing investment demand in high-tech industries and fostering new growth drivers [13][14] Group 4: Income Growth and Employment Stability - The government is working on a plan to increase residents' income and stabilize employment, which is crucial for expanding consumer spending [8][9] - There is a strong emphasis on reforming income distribution, including increasing subsidies for low-income groups and optimizing tax policies to enhance residents' disposable income [9][10]

正在谋划推进一批"十五五"时期高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程 国家发展改革委国民经济综合司司长周陈表示，展望2026年，我国经济结构将持续向优，发展动能持续向新，整体发展态势持续向好。从点上看， 新技术、新产品、新场景将蔚然成势，目前发改委正在谋划推进一批"十五五"时期的高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程；从线上看，创新链、产业 链、人才链加速融合。2025年我国的数字经济增加值有望达到49万亿元，占GDP比重约35%，未来将创造出更大的市场空间。从面上看，动力源地 区创新引领作用持续增强。目前我国拥有24个全球百强的创新集群，数量连续位居世界第一。 将研究制定出台2026年—2030年扩大内需战略实施方案 国家发改委副主任王昌林20日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，CPI、PPI实现双回升，下一步，总量方面，要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货 币政策，把促进物价回升作为货币政策的重要考量，发挥存量政策和增量政策的集成效率，推动形成经济增长和物价回升的良性互动。 研究设立国家级并购基金 加强政府投资、基金布局规划 国家发改委副主任王昌林20日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，要发挥好国家创业投资基金行业标杆作用，研究设立国 ...