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定量策略周观点总第169周:风险偏好共振提升-20250630
Huaxin Securities· 2025-06-30 00:54
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that global asset risk appetite has collectively increased due to three favorable factors: potential resolution of US-China tariffs, the possibility of a July interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and the market pricing out geopolitical risks related to the Middle East [3][28][29] - The report suggests that the current asset pricing logic is influenced by three main factors: geopolitical issues (short-term impact), tariffs (medium-term impact until the end of 2025), and the shorting of the US dollar/US fiscal discipline (long-term impact until the end of 2026 or the end of the current US administration) [3][28][29] - The report notes that the market is currently in a phase where the three pricing logic factors are in a "waiting" stage, with limited upward momentum expected in the absence of significant adjustments in major equity markets [28][29] Group 2 - The report highlights that the US Senate's recent decision to remove a specific clause from a tax reform bill has alleviated some concerns regarding debt sustainability, yet long-term distrust in US fiscal discipline remains strong [29] - The report emphasizes that the current market optimism is not indicative of a new wave of growth but rather a continuation of the upward trend that began in April, following a period of extreme pessimism in global risk appetite [29] - The report advises maintaining a balanced allocation strategy across various asset classes, focusing on both offensive assets (AI, technology hardware, and large financials) and defensive assets (long-term bonds, gold, and low-volatility dividends) [5][28]
额度放开了,再选一遍美债基金~
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-29 11:59
Group 1 - Recent developments indicate that many US Treasury bond funds have lifted their quotas, prompting interest in these funds [1][2] - Various funds are categorized based on their duration, with specific funds targeting different maturity ranges such as "7-10 year US Treasury ETF" and "1-3 year US Treasury ETF" [1][2][3][4] Group 2 - The funds include ICBC and Changxin, which are aligned with the "7-10 year US Treasury ETF," and others like Huatai-PB and Fuguo, which align with the "3-7 year US Treasury ETF" [1][2][19] - The E Fund and Morgan Stanley funds focus on shorter durations, targeting the "1-3 year US Treasury ETF" and "1 year US Treasury ETF" respectively [3][4][19] Group 3 - The article provides a detailed breakdown of the holdings within these funds, highlighting the types of US Treasury bonds they invest in, such as long-term, short-term, and inflation-protected bonds [6][7][8] - For instance, the Morgan Stanley fund primarily holds short-term US Treasury bonds, while the E Fund has a more diversified portfolio including corporate bonds [9][10][12] Group 4 - Performance comparisons show that the E Fund's volatility aligns closely with the "1-3 year US Treasury ETF," while the Morgan Stanley fund exhibits lower volatility, indicating a more conservative approach [18][12] - Long-term funds like ICBC Global US Dollar Bond and Changxin Global Bond have significant allocations to long-term US Treasury bonds, with ICBC holding 85.91% in its top five bonds [19][20][21][24] Group 5 - The article concludes with a summary table of various funds, detailing their codes, managers, asset sizes, and expected returns, emphasizing the importance of monitoring these funds closely due to their active management nature [51][52]