Group 1 - China's significant reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings to $756.3 billion marks a new low since 2009, down from $1.06 trillion in early 2022, indicating a 30% decrease and reflecting a lack of confidence in the U.S. economy [1] - The Chinese government is actively seeking alternative investments, with gold reserves reaching 2,298 tons, accounting for 7% of foreign exchange reserves, as a strategy to prepare for potential dollar depreciation [1] - The U.S. is facing a strategic dilemma, as Secretary of State Rubio's call for mutual respect appears to be a response to fiscal constraints while maintaining a hardline stance against China [3] Group 2 - The absurdity of the U.S. Treasury's "donate to pay off national debt" link highlights the irony of a system where public donations of $67.3 million over 30 years are insufficient to cover a single day's interest on national debt [5] - The shift in global economic order is underscored by the increasing use of local currencies among BRICS nations and Saudi Arabia's acceptance of yuan for oil, challenging the dominance of the dollar [5] - The annualized return of Chinese gold ETFs at 12% contrasts sharply with the -3% performance of U.S. Treasury funds, suggesting a trend where investors are moving towards gold and stable assets [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the greatest dividend for ordinary people is not external opportunities but rather the development of an internal system, categorized into "chaotic systems" and "compound systems" [3][4]. Group 1: Chaotic System - A chaotic system is characterized by frequent decision-making changes and high uncertainty, leading to a lack of accumulation in any particular field [7][8]. - Individuals in a chaotic system often rely on external influences and emotions for decision-making, which can result in missed opportunities [5][9]. Group 2: Compound System - A compound system focuses on long-term goals and experience accumulation, leading to clearer decision-making paths and reduced external interference [10]. - The advantages of a compound system include strong certainty, reduced anxiety, and a stable mindset despite market fluctuations [11]. - The article discusses various investment strategies within a compound system, such as technical analysis, value investing, and a "permanent portfolio" approach that emphasizes asset diversification and dynamic balance [11][12]. Group 3: Investment Performance - The author's "permanent portfolio" consists of dividend funds in the A-share market, index funds in the US (Nasdaq and S&P 500), and investments in India and Southeast Asia [13]. - The performance of the author's fund account shows a year-to-date increase of 6.33%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has decreased by 1.7% [16]. - The article notes that the stock market has shown positive trends, particularly after the worst impacts of tariff storms have passed [17][19].

Group 1 - Recent developments indicate that many US Treasury bond funds have lifted their quotas, prompting interest in these funds [1][2] - Various funds are categorized based on their duration, with specific funds targeting different maturity ranges such as "7-10 year US Treasury ETF" and "1-3 year US Treasury ETF" [1][2][3][4] Group 2 - The funds include ICBC and Changxin, which are aligned with the "7-10 year US Treasury ETF," and others like Huatai-PB and Fuguo, which align with the "3-7 year US Treasury ETF" [1][2][19] - The E Fund and Morgan Stanley funds focus on shorter durations, targeting the "1-3 year US Treasury ETF" and "1 year US Treasury ETF" respectively [3][4][19] Group 3 - The article provides a detailed breakdown of the holdings within these funds, highlighting the types of US Treasury bonds they invest in, such as long-term, short-term, and inflation-protected bonds [6][7][8] - For instance, the Morgan Stanley fund primarily holds short-term US Treasury bonds, while the E Fund has a more diversified portfolio including corporate bonds [9][10][12] Group 4 - Performance comparisons show that the E Fund's volatility aligns closely with the "1-3 year US Treasury ETF," while the Morgan Stanley fund exhibits lower volatility, indicating a more conservative approach [18][12] - Long-term funds like ICBC Global US Dollar Bond and Changxin Global Bond have significant allocations to long-term US Treasury bonds, with ICBC holding 85.91% in its top five bonds [19][20][21][24] Group 5 - The article concludes with a summary table of various funds, detailing their codes, managers, asset sizes, and expected returns, emphasizing the importance of monitoring these funds closely due to their active management nature [51][52]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rise in the yield of the US 10-year Treasury bond, reaching 4.6%, and the associated media narratives of a "bond crash" and "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and currencies, suggesting that these narratives may be exaggerated or sensationalized [2][4][6]. Group 1: Data Insights - Data 1: As of March 2025, foreign holdings of US Treasury bonds reached a historical high, indicating that the narrative of a "bond crash" began only after the imposition of tariffs in April [8][9]. - Data 2: In March, the UK surpassed China to become the second-largest holder of US Treasuries, while many countries continue to increase their purchases despite China selling off some of its holdings [13][14]. - Data 3: China's holdings of US short-term securities reached the highest level since 2009 in March, suggesting ongoing interest in US debt [17]. Group 2: Current Challenges for US Treasuries - Challenge 1: Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from AAA to Aa1 in early May, which is seen as a normal reaction amid global economic slowdown and uncertainty [20][22]. - Challenge 2: The recent auction of 20-year Treasury bonds was disappointing, with a winning yield of 5.047%, higher than the average of the past six auctions, indicating increased investor demand for higher returns due to perceived risks [23][24]. - Challenge 3: Rising yields on Japanese government bonds, driven by high inflation and a hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan, may reduce Japanese demand for US Treasuries as local yields become more attractive [30][32]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The recent PMI data for May showed a reading of 52, indicating economic expansion, which aligns with the rise in 10-year Treasury yields as markets anticipate continued growth and reduced rate cut expectations [36][38]. - The article suggests that the current yield of around 4.5% on US Treasuries may present a value opportunity for investors, as many analysts believe the yield is at a high point with limited upside potential [39][42]. - The author emphasizes the importance of understanding the US inventory cycle, which may influence economic conditions and subsequently affect Treasury yields, particularly as the market anticipates a potential shift to a "de-inventory" phase later in 2025 [46][49].

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 从历史数据看，指数增强基金的平均收益，多数年份是可以跑赢对应指数的。 但其中也有一部分跑输了指数，如果不谨慎挑选的话，也有可能买到的基金，实际上跑不赢指 数。 那应该如何挑选优秀的指数增强基金呢？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了指数增强基金的投资方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 指数增强 」领取哦 ～ 基金公司需要用自己的外汇额度，把我们 投入的人民币兑换成美元，才可以去购买 美债。 如果额度不足，就会限购。 (2) 利率风险 ◆◆◆ (1) 额度风险 投资美元类的基金品种,最麻烦的一个事 情，就是经常会遇到限购。 (3) 汇率风险 我们用人民币去申购基金,基金公司拿到 人民币，会按照汇率换成美元，再到美股 市场进行投资。 我们赎回基金的时候，基金公司把美股卖 出，拿到美元，再按照汇率换回人民币， 把人民币给到我们。 利率=利息/市值。 对债券资产来说，利率上升周期，往往是 熊市；利率下降周期，往往是牛市。 每次美股利率波动，都会造成美债类品种 的波动。 例如，从2021年开始，美股10年期国债 收益率出现了大幅提升，从0.5%上下， ...

清明假期期间，随着我方的反制措施发布，市场的声音迅速两极分化，极左和极右——要么是美方赢麻了、中要跪，要么是美方蠢坏了、中必赢。 但理性来看（当然也许我说理性，很多人也觉得不够理性），不管是对等关税，还是强硬反制， 从资产价格的角度看，无疑是双输的局面 。 就好像一对重量级拳手，在擂台对垒，原先都戴着拳套，有裁判居间维持秩序，看似拳拳到肉，但实际因为有拳套的缓冲，以及可以搂抱暂停，所以顶多 是皮开肉绽，不至于伤筋动骨，最后不管是点胜还是KO，双方都可以拿着千万美刀的出场费，潇洒地离开。 而这轮贸易战掀桌子后， 就好像两位拳手把拳套给脱了 ，裁判也没有了， 直接硬碰硬，这就导致，不管最后是谁笑到最后，双方一定都会给对方，造成 更大的伤害。 本文确保都是干货，建议收藏。 节前A股收盘后，全球金融市场又发生了 足以载入史册的危机模式 ——标普500，周四、周五两日，累计下跌10.8%，而上一次两日跌幅超过10%，还是 在2020年3月，美股因疫情熔断的期间；再上一次，是2008年的金融危机；而大多数人印象比较深刻的，去年7-8月，美股因日元加息导致的大跌过程中， 标普500连续两日最大跌幅都没有超过5%。 所以，说 ...