Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a "cost storm" driven by soaring memory prices is reshaping the hardware industry, with most OEMs expected to raise prices significantly in the first half of 2026, potentially leading to a decline in shipments of Android phones and Windows PCs throughout the year [2][6][7] - Morgan Stanley predicts that DRAM contract prices will rise by 40-70% quarter-on-quarter in Q1 2026, while NAND prices are expected to increase by 30-35%, far exceeding previous expectations [6][7] - Apple has locked in favorable memory prices and plans to maintain its product pricing, which is expected to help it gain market share for iPhones and Macs in 2026 [3][9] Group 2 - The shortage of hard disk drives (HDD) is worsening, with a projected supply gap of 200EB over the next 12 months, up from a previous estimate of 100-150EB [4][12] - Major cloud service providers are resorting to temporary measures, such as using enterprise-grade solid-state drives (eSSD), to partially meet storage demands, although eSSD is less efficient than HDD from a total cost of ownership perspective [13][14] - HDD manufacturers are reluctant to expand total production capacity but are reallocating capacity from consumer-grade applications to cloud and nearline storage to meet growing demand [16] Group 3 - OEMs like Dell and HP are expected to initiate large-scale layoffs to protect operating profit margins due to rising cost pressures, similar to the memory supercycle of 2017-2018 [19] - PC OEMs are reducing bill of materials costs by replacing 512GB storage configurations with 256GB options while maintaining entry-level pricing through cost-sharing with component suppliers [20] - The demand for AI servers is strong but profit margins remain low, with ongoing price competition among major OEMs like Dell, HPE, and Supermicro [22]

大摩认为一场由内存价格飙升引发的硬件行业"成本风暴"正在席卷全球。 追风交易台消息，1月6日，摩根士丹利Erik W Woodring研究团队在结束中国台湾之行后发表研报，指 出2026年内存价格正以超预期的速度飙升，预计第一季度DRAM合约价格将环比上涨40-70%，NAND 价格将上涨30-35%，远超此前预期。 这一成本压力将给整个硬件行业带来深远影响。大多数OEM厂商将在2026年上半年大幅提价以应对成 本压力，可能导致安卓手机和Windows PC全年出货量下滑。 然而苹果因提前锁定较优惠的内存价格，决定维持产品定价不变，有望在2026年实现iPhone和Mac市场 份额增长。 硬盘供应短缺加剧，未来12个月供需缺口扩大至200EB。服务器厂商如戴尔和惠普可能即将启动大规模 裁员以保护运营利润率。 内存价格暴涨重塑行业格局 根据TrendForce最新预测，DRAM合约价格在2026年第一季度预计将环比上涨40-70%，而此前预期仅为 15-23%的涨幅。NAND方面，合约价格预计上涨30-35%，同样远超此前预期的15-25%。 这一成本压力正在迫使除苹果外的几乎所有硬件OEM厂商在2026年上半 ...

Core Insights - The global storage market is experiencing simultaneous shortages in DRAM, NAND flash, and HDD products, a situation unprecedented in the last 30 years according to ADATA's chairman [1] - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) like OpenAI, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are now the primary competitors for storage manufacturers, shifting the traditional supply chain dynamics [1] - The focus of storage manufacturers has shifted towards high-value products like HBM and DDR5, leading to a significant reduction in available chips for module manufacturers [2] Group 1: DRAM Market Dynamics - The shortage of DDR4 is expected to last for at least two years, as major manufacturers have nearly halted its production, fulfilling only minimal contractual obligations [2] - The price of DDR4 16Gb has surged approximately 44% in three months and over 413% compared to a year ago, while DDR5 16Gb prices increased by about 83% in just one month [2] Group 2: NAND Flash and HDD Market Trends - The NAND flash market, previously oversupplied, is now heating up due to a shortage of HDDs, forcing companies to purchase more expensive enterprise-grade SSDs [3] - TrendForce predicts a 5% to 10% average price increase for NAND in Q4 due to the surge in SSD orders resulting from HDD production cuts [3] Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - The current storage crisis driven by AI is fundamentally different from past cyclical fluctuations, indicating a structural demand shift that could sustain a new era of market prosperity until at least 2026 [3]