每周 一 景：湖南衡阳衡山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【固收】 避险潮下，海外债资产如何选择 美国政府"停摆"进入第三天叠加总统对华关税威胁，全球债市避险情绪急剧升温，成为过去一周核心驱动。 美联储官员Miran表示当前债市平静支持加速降 息，但政府数据发布受阻增加政策不确定性。国际清算银行与英国央行联合上调主权债务风险预警，特别点名法国与日本财政改革僵局，穆迪强调贸易壁垒与 关税政策对新兴市场的外溢风险。特朗普10月10日威胁大规模加征对华关税瞬间点燃避险情绪，资金快速涌入美债等安全资产，推动10年期美债收益率降至 数周低点。政府"停摆"与地缘风险形成叠加效应，巩固了全球债市的避险交易主线。 全球主要国债收益率全线下行，美债曲线中长端陡峭化最为显著。10年期与30年期美债收益率分别下行6.2与7个基点，2年期与10年期利差维持52.8个基 点，TED利差收窄至-0.048%显示银行间流动性改善。 欧洲主权债同步受益避险情绪，德国10年期国债下行7个基点至2.63%，英国金边债长端因财政担忧 上行至5.49%。日本国债走势分化，10年期JGB微升2.2个基点至1.70%，短端受央行宽松预期压制下行。信用利差 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the global bond market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to the U.S. government shutdown and tariff threats, leading to a recommendation for long-term developed country bonds and emerging market sovereign debt while reducing high-yield credit exposure [1][6][7] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has steepened significantly, with the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields decreasing by 6.2 and 7 basis points respectively, reflecting increased demand for safe assets amid economic uncertainty [6][8][9] - The report notes that the credit spreads for U.S. high-yield bonds widened by 17 basis points to 2.631%, indicating a growing sensitivity to credit risk in a liquidity-rich environment [8][10][9] Group 2 - The report indicates that the offshore RMB sovereign bonds experienced a weekly increase, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.18 basis points to 1.9109%, driven by factors such as enhanced liquidity management and a hot primary market [14][15] - It mentions that the issuance of offshore bonds was concentrated among high-rated financial institutions, with all newly issued bonds rated AAA and primarily with a one-year maturity [17][18] - The report outlines that the issuance structure reflects a mix of short-term financing from financial institutions, long-term allocations from supranational entities, and hybrid instruments from the industrial sector, with U.S. dollar bonds dominating the market [20][21]