| [Table_Authors] | 王一凡(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38031722 | | | wangyifan4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524120001 | | | 唐元懋(分析师) | | | 0755-23976753 | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 回望 25 年，高弹性强动量占优 2026.01.02 利率互换 IRS 能预测资金松紧甚至降息吗？ 2025.12.31 关注信用债 3Y-1Y 的骑乘机会 2025.12.29 银行二永债周度数据库更新（2025.12.19-12.26） 2025.12.29 冲击趋缓，深跌反弹 2025.12.28 证 券 研 究 报 告 债 券 研 究 曲径分岔：政策分化中把握中久期良机 本报告导读： 日本央行加息 25bp，全球货币政策分化加剧。美债曲线平坦化，短端回落明显。建 议配置 5-7 年中久期资产。 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01. ...

Group 1 - The global bond market is focusing on three main themes: European fiscal risks, a data vacuum in the US, and credit improvement in emerging markets [1] - The European Central Bank warns of increasing sovereign debt supply pressure and a shrinking scale of central bank bond purchases, leading to rising interest rate risks [1] - The probability of a rate cut in December in the US has dropped from 95% to 50% due to government shutdown, creating policy uncertainty in the market [1] Group 2 - Major bond yields globally have generally declined, with US long-term yields falling more than short-term yields, exemplified by a 5.2 basis point drop in the 30-year yield [1] - The UK 10-year bond yield saw a significant drop of 9.34 basis points, leading declines in developed markets [1] - Credit spreads have compressed significantly, with investment-grade corporate bonds dropping by 11 basis points and high-yield bonds decreasing by 29 basis points to 6.58% [1] Group 3 - The issuance of Dim Sum bonds totaled 41, with a scale of 95.383 billion yuan, where central bank bills accounted for 47.2% of the issuance [2] - The overall issuance structure is dominated by bank financial bonds, with urban investment bonds' coupon rates concentrated in the 5-7% range [2] - Offshore RMB bonds show a flattening characteristic with short-end yields rising and long-end yields falling, while the sovereign bond 10-year spread narrowed from 8.95 basis points to 5.19 basis points [2] Group 4 - The global bond market is experiencing a stable credit environment with no major sovereign rating adjustments or systemic defaults [3] - The debt of high-risk US companies increased from $271 billion to $296 billion, a rise of 9.2%, indicating accumulating refinancing pressure [3] - The net outflow from high-yield bond funds was $333 million, and from leveraged loan funds was $89 million, indicating pressure on liquidity [3] Group 5 - The strategy suggests focusing on 5-7 year medium to long-term bonds to capture the benefits of a steepening yield curve and rolling down yields, while maintaining a defensive position in AAA/AA+ rated securities [4] - The preferred regional allocation includes US investment-grade corporate bonds and emerging market sovereign debt, while caution is advised for European bonds [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights a deepening global credit risk differentiation, with France's sovereign rating downgraded to A+ and increasing default pressure on US corporations, suggesting a focus on extending duration and upgrading ratings in investment strategies [1][6][29] - The global bond market is driven by three main themes: monetary policy outlook, structural changes in sovereign debt, and international financial system reforms [6][8] - The report indicates that emerging market bonds are showing significant differentiation, with major markets enhancing resilience through dollar and local currency issuance, while frontier markets face sustainability pressures [6][8] Group 2 - The report notes that the US Treasury yield curve has shifted to a bull steepening shape, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.011% and the 2-year yield declining even more significantly [8][9] - European sovereign bond yields have also seen substantial declines, with the UK 10-year yield plummeting by 25.83 basis points and Germany's 10-year yield falling by 14 basis points [9][10] - The credit market is showing a clear differentiation, with investment-grade corporate bonds performing strongly and high-yield bonds under pressure, as evidenced by the G-spread narrowing for investment-grade bonds while widening for high-yield bonds [11][28] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the need for defensive and structural opportunities in current investment strategies, recommending a moderate extension of duration and an overweight in investment-grade bonds [6][11] - The report suggests increasing allocations to emerging market dollar bonds while avoiding frontier market foreign currency debt, highlighting the resilience of major emerging markets [6][11] - The report also points out the narrowing of the offshore RMB bond yield spread, indicating improved liquidity and demand for RMB assets [15][24]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising risk aversion in global debt markets due to the U.S. government shutdown and trade tensions with China, leading to a significant influx of capital into safe assets like U.S. Treasuries [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has steepened, with 10-year and 30-year yields decreasing by 6.2 and 7 basis points respectively, while the 2-year and 10-year spread remains at 52.8 basis points [3]. - European sovereign bonds have also benefited from the risk-averse sentiment, with Germany's 10-year bond yield falling by 7 basis points to 2.63% [3]. - The offshore RMB sovereign bond market saw a rise, with the 10-year yield increasing by 5.18 basis points to 1.9109%, and the domestic and offshore yield spread widening from 3.22 to 11.48 basis points [3]. Group 2: Liquidity and Credit Risk - The global funding market is characterized by short-term easing and ample liquidity, with the U.S. SOFR narrowing from 0.026% to 0.048%, indicating sufficient interbank funding supply [4]. - Despite stable core liquidity indicators, the re-pricing of sovereign credit risk has led to structural differentiation in interest rates across markets, with a notable decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reflecting increased demand for safe assets [4]. - Investment-grade bond spreads remain stable, while high-yield bond spreads have widened, indicating heightened sensitivity to credit risk in a liquid environment [4]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - The article suggests a strategic asset allocation approach that includes overweighting safe assets, increasing exposure to emerging market sovereign debt, tactically overweighting long-term U.S. Treasuries, and being cautious about credit risk [4].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the global bond market is experiencing heightened risk aversion due to the U.S. government shutdown and tariff threats, leading to a recommendation for long-term developed country bonds and emerging market sovereign debt while reducing high-yield credit exposure [1][6][7] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve has steepened significantly, with the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields decreasing by 6.2 and 7 basis points respectively, reflecting increased demand for safe assets amid economic uncertainty [6][8][9] - The report notes that the credit spreads for U.S. high-yield bonds widened by 17 basis points to 2.631%, indicating a growing sensitivity to credit risk in a liquidity-rich environment [8][10][9] Group 2 - The report indicates that the offshore RMB sovereign bonds experienced a weekly increase, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.18 basis points to 1.9109%, driven by factors such as enhanced liquidity management and a hot primary market [14][15] - It mentions that the issuance of offshore bonds was concentrated among high-rated financial institutions, with all newly issued bonds rated AAA and primarily with a one-year maturity [17][18] - The report outlines that the issuance structure reflects a mix of short-term financing from financial institutions, long-term allocations from supranational entities, and hybrid instruments from the industrial sector, with U.S. dollar bonds dominating the market [20][21]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant decline in US Treasury yields, driven by rising global risk aversion and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to weakening economic data [7][9][27] - European long-term government bond yields have reached near-decade highs, particularly in the UK, France, and Germany, influenced by fiscal expansion and political uncertainties, leading to a sell-off in European bonds [8][9][10] - The report suggests a shift in global capital flows, indicating increased risk aversion and a preference for high-quality, liquid bonds amid diverging monetary policies across major economies [8][9][10] Group 2 - The US Treasury yield curve has shifted downward, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.08% and the 30-year yield decreasing by 16.8 basis points to 4.76%, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets [9][10][11] - In contrast, UK 30-year government bond yields have surged to their highest levels since 1998, with significant increases in yields for French and German bonds as well, indicating a divergence in bond market performance [9][10][11] - The report notes that Asian government bonds have remained stable, with limited yield fluctuations, highlighting a risk diversion effect in the market [9][10][11] Group 3 - The issuance of credit bonds has primarily involved high-rated entities, focusing on sectors such as infrastructure, real estate, and transportation, with maturities mainly between 1-3 years [17][19] - The offshore RMB bond market has shown a slight widening of the yield spread between dim sum bonds and domestic bonds, indicating a stable long-term outlook for offshore RMB liquidity [15][16][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a diversified credit exposure, particularly in high-rated corporate bonds and sovereign debt, while being cautious of over-concentration in any single sector or credit rating [33][34]