每周 一 景：湖南衡阳衡山 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【固收】 避险潮下，海外债资产如何选择 美国政府"停摆"进入第三天叠加总统对华关税威胁，全球债市避险情绪急剧升温，成为过去一周核心驱动。 美联储官员Miran表示当前债市平静支持加速降 息，但政府数据发布受阻增加政策不确定性。国际清算银行与英国央行联合上调主权债务风险预警，特别点名法国与日本财政改革僵局，穆迪强调贸易壁垒与 关税政策对新兴市场的外溢风险。特朗普10月10日威胁大规模加征对华关税瞬间点燃避险情绪，资金快速涌入美债等安全资产，推动10年期美债收益率降至 数周低点。政府"停摆"与地缘风险形成叠加效应，巩固了全球债市的避险交易主线。 全球主要国债收益率全线下行，美债曲线中长端陡峭化最为显著。10年期与30年期美债收益率分别下行6.2与7个基点，2年期与10年期利差维持52.8个基 点，TED利差收窄至-0.048%显示银行间流动性改善。 欧洲主权债同步受益避险情绪，德国10年期国债下行7个基点至2.63%，英国金边债长端因财政担忧 上行至5.49%。日本国债走势分化，10年期JGB微升2.2个基点至1.70%，短端受央行宽松预期压制下行。信用利差 ...

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.14 避险潮下，海外债资产如何选择 本报告导读： 美国政府"停摆"与关税威胁推动全球避险情绪升温，主权信用风险重估叠加违约 预期上升，建议配置长端发达国债与新兴市场主权债、减持高收益信用。 投资要点： | [Table_Authors] | 王一凡(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38031722 | | | wangyifan4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524120001 | | | 唐元懋(分析师) | | | 0755-23976753 | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 主要买方情绪回暖，但偏好短期债券 2025.10.13 地方债长端利差收窄，四季度已披露发行计划 8966 亿 2025.10.12 贸易摩擦下 REIT 市场的危与机 2025.10.12 迎接节后修复行情 2025.10.12 贸易摩擦重启，债市的"不变"与"变" 2025.10.12 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant decline in US Treasury yields, driven by rising global risk aversion and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to weakening economic data [7][9][27] - European long-term government bond yields have reached near-decade highs, particularly in the UK, France, and Germany, influenced by fiscal expansion and political uncertainties, leading to a sell-off in European bonds [8][9][10] - The report suggests a shift in global capital flows, indicating increased risk aversion and a preference for high-quality, liquid bonds amid diverging monetary policies across major economies [8][9][10] Group 2 - The US Treasury yield curve has shifted downward, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.08% and the 30-year yield decreasing by 16.8 basis points to 4.76%, reflecting heightened demand for safe-haven assets [9][10][11] - In contrast, UK 30-year government bond yields have surged to their highest levels since 1998, with significant increases in yields for French and German bonds as well, indicating a divergence in bond market performance [9][10][11] - The report notes that Asian government bonds have remained stable, with limited yield fluctuations, highlighting a risk diversion effect in the market [9][10][11] Group 3 - The issuance of credit bonds has primarily involved high-rated entities, focusing on sectors such as infrastructure, real estate, and transportation, with maturities mainly between 1-3 years [17][19] - The offshore RMB bond market has shown a slight widening of the yield spread between dim sum bonds and domestic bonds, indicating a stable long-term outlook for offshore RMB liquidity [15][16][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a diversified credit exposure, particularly in high-rated corporate bonds and sovereign debt, while being cautious of over-concentration in any single sector or credit rating [33][34]