| 华泰研究 | | | 动态点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 2 月 | 03 日│中国内地 | 乘用车 | 目标价(人民币): | 130.63 | 2 月 1 日，比亚迪发布产销快报，1 月乘用车总销量 21 万辆，同比-30%、 环比-50%；其中出口销量突破 10 万辆，同比+51%、环比-25%。我们认为 公司受需求前置和主动去库影响，1 月销量同环比大幅下滑，系淡季主动调 结构，为春节后新车和新技术发布蓄力。我们看好公司 26 年出口销量超 130 万辆，期待公司超充、智驾等领域的新技术进展，维持"买入"评级。 国内：受需求前置和主动去库影响，1 月销量同环比大幅下滑 分品牌看，1 月王朝+海洋系列/方程豹/腾势/仰望销量 17.8/2.2/0.6/0.04 万 辆，同比-36%/+247%/-49%/+44%。1 月内销同环比大幅下滑，源于供需两 端压力。1）需求端，26 年新能源购置税增加 5%，导致需求于 25 年底提 前释放，叠加地方置换补贴申请窗口 1 月底才全面铺开，消费者持币 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in new car registrations in Hunan Province, with a total of 67,383 vehicles registered in November, of which 36,680 were new energy vehicles (NEVs), representing 54.44% of the total, up from 43.33% the previous month [1][4]. Group 1: New Car Registrations - In November, Hunan Province saw a total of 67,383 new car registrations, with 36,680 being new energy vehicles, marking a month-over-month increase [1]. - The city of Changsha led the province with 29,684 new car registrations, followed by Zhuzhou with 4,998 and Hengyang with 4,322 [4]. Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Market - The proportion of new energy vehicles in Hunan's total new car registrations rose significantly, with seven cities reporting NEV registration rates above 50% in November [4]. - Changsha recorded the highest NEV registration rate at 59.37%, followed by Xiangxi Autonomous Prefecture at 57.32% and Yueyang at 54.81% [4]. Group 3: Leading Models and Brands - The top-selling model in November was the Wuling Hongguang MINI with 2,708 registrations, followed by the Nissan Sylphy with 1,607 and the Xiaomi YU7 with 1,007 [5]. - Notably, BYD secured six positions in the top 16 new car registrations, indicating its strong market presence despite no single model making it to the top three [5][8]. Group 4: Regional Performance - In Changsha, the Xiaomi YU7 was the best-selling model with 998 registrations, while the Wuling Hongguang MINI followed with 867 [9]. - Traditional fuel vehicles like the Nissan Sylphy and Toyota Camry continue to show strong demand, with the Camry ranking sixth in the overall provincial new car registration list [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD [1] Core Views - BYD's recent H-share placement of 129.8 million shares at HKD 335.2 per share is the largest equity refinancing project in the global automotive industry in the past decade, reflecting strong investor confidence in BYD's growth prospects and the global trend towards electrification and intelligence in the automotive sector [7][8] - February sales reached 323,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 164%, with strong export performance [9] - The company is expected to achieve sales of 5.5 million units in 2025, with over 80% of these being intelligent driving models [9][22] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from CNY 602.3 billion in 2023 to CNY 1,057.7 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 26.37% [1][24] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from CNY 30.04 billion in 2024 to CNY 65.08 billion in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 22.77% [1][24] - The report revises the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to CNY 40 billion, CNY 53 billion, and CNY 65 billion respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 25x, 19x, and 15x [22] Sales and Production Insights - In February, BYD's plug-in hybrid vehicle sales reached 193,000 units, accounting for 60.7% of total sales, while pure electric vehicle sales were 125,000 units [16] - The company plans to launch several new models in 2025, including the Han L and Tang L, which are expected to enhance sales further [20] Battery Production and Supply - BYD's battery installation in February increased by 150% year-on-year, with a total of 16.7 GWh installed [21] - The company anticipates a total battery output of 345 GWh in 2025, with significant contributions from both self-supply and external supply [21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BYD [7] Core Views - BYD's H-share placement of 129.8 million shares at HKD 335.2 per share is the largest equity refinancing project in the global automotive industry in the past decade, reflecting strong investor confidence in BYD's growth prospects and the global trend towards electrification and intelligence in the automotive sector [8][9] - February sales reached 323,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 164%, with exports continuing to show strong growth [9][10] - The company expects to sell 5.5 million vehicles in 2025, with over 80% of sales coming from intelligent driving models and exports doubling to over 800,000 units [9][10] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from CNY 602.3 billion in 2023 to CNY 1,057.7 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.37% [7][24] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from CNY 30.04 billion in 2024 to CNY 65.08 billion in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 22.77% [7][24] - The report revises the net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to CNY 40 billion, CNY 53 billion, and CNY 65 billion respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 25x, 19x, and 15x [22][24] Sales and Production Insights - In February, BYD's plug-in hybrid vehicle sales reached 193,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 189%, while pure electric vehicle sales were 125,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 128% [16][21] - The company plans to launch several new models in 2025, including the Han L and Tang L, with prices starting around CNY 300,000 [20][21] Battery Production and Technology - BYD's battery installation in February increased by 150% year-on-year, with a total of 16.7 GWh installed [21][22] - The company anticipates a total battery output of 345 GWh in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 30% [21][22]