Macro Strategy - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, with the highest tariffs dropping from 145% to 30% before May 14, 2025, and a complete cancellation of 91% of retaliatory tariffs, reducing export uncertainties [1][9][10] - The negotiations are driven by increasing political and economic pressures in the US, with a framework agreement expected to be reached within the year, particularly as the midterm elections approach [1][9][10] - The trade conflict has resulted in a 14% month-on-month increase in the US trade deficit for March, with consumer goods imports hitting a record high, indicating a pressing need for tariff reductions from the US side [1][9][10] Industry Insights - The report highlights a shift in local state-owned enterprises' bond financing from infrastructure and real estate projects to technology innovation, with a 31.41% increase in bonds issued for equity or fund investments and a 47.85% decrease for infrastructure or real estate investments in the first four months of 2025 [4][13] - The technology sector is becoming a key driver of economic growth, with the digital economy's core industries expected to contribute around 10% to GDP by the end of 2024, reflecting a significant increase in China's global market share in high-tech manufacturing [11][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of building a robust technological infrastructure to enhance competitiveness and drive domestic demand, particularly in the context of global trade uncertainties [11][13] Company Recommendations - Hai Tian Wei Ye (603288) is projected to maintain steady growth with revenue expectations of 29.7 billion, 32.8 billion, and 36.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [8] - Zhejiang Dingli (603338) is expected to see a net profit of 2.1 billion, 2.4 billion, and 2.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a current market valuation corresponding to a PE ratio of 12, 10, and 9 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [8] - UBTECH (09880.HK) has signed a comprehensive cooperation agreement with Huawei, which is anticipated to accelerate the application of humanoid robots in real-world scenarios, with revenue forecasts of 2.016 billion, 2.823 billion, and 3.705 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [8]

Group 1 - The US-China trade negotiations have resulted in a 90-day window where tariffs on Chinese exports to the US will be 30%, with a potential increase to 54% after this period, enhancing the certainty of performance for companies involved [1] - The adjustment in tariffs is expected to provide a short-term shipping and stocking window, while in the long term, domestic production capacity for exports to the US is likely to maintain good profitability [1] Group 2 - The European Union has imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese mobile elevating work platforms, with the lowest duty at 20.6% for Dingli, which is lower than foreign brands, indicating recognition of compliance and market operations [2] - The impact of these duties on the company's export orders and profitability is considered limited, as price increases are expected to be a trend, allowing for cost transfer to end customers [2] - The company is expected to enhance its market share in Europe as new production capacity is released in 2025, despite high tariffs acting as a barrier [2] Group 3 - The company is anticipated to see sustained performance growth due to successful trials with overseas clients, extended stocking windows, and the introduction of high-value products in Europe [3] - The company is also expanding into emerging markets and new business segments, which will contribute to steady growth [3] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate a net profit of 21 billion (31% YoY growth), 24 billion (14% YoY growth), and 28 billion (14% YoY growth) from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) has begun imposing tariffs on over 80 Chinese products, responding to pressure from the United States amid ongoing trade tensions initiated by President Trump [1][3]. Group 1: EU Actions - The EU has previously imposed tariffs on certain Chinese goods since January, citing "anti-dumping" measures, and the recent tariffs on mobile elevating work platforms add to this list [3]. - The EU claims that Chinese products benefit from unfair subsidies and are sold below normal prices, justifying the tariffs [3]. Group 2: Impact on China - The tariffs are expected to significantly reduce the competitiveness of Chinese products in the EU market, leading to a decrease in orders for affected companies [3]. - China's Ministry of Commerce has criticized the EU's actions as "selective enforcement," arguing that it creates trade barriers and violates World Trade Organization (WTO) rules [3]. Group 3: China's Response - China has indicated that it understands some countries may negotiate under pressure from the US, but any actions that harm Chinese interests will lead to reciprocal measures [5]. - A recent bilingual video released by China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized China's refusal to submit to US "bullying" tactics, asserting the need for a firm stance to protect national interests [5][7]. - China does not oppose countries aligning with the US, provided it does not come at the expense of Chinese interests, warning of potential retaliation if such boundaries are crossed [7].

| 中国出口商/制造商 | 中国出口商/制造商 | 反补贴 | 调整层的 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 税率 | 反倾销税 | | 英文名 | 参考中文名 | | हिंदी | | Hunan Sinoboom | 湖南星邦智能装备股份有限公司 | 7.3% | 42.0% | | Intelligent Equipment Co., | | | | | Ltd. | | | | | Oshkosh JLG (Tianjin) | 捷尔杰(天津)设备有限公司 | 不适用 | 22.5 % | | Equipment Technology | | | | | Co., Ltd. | | | | | Zoomlion Intelligent | 湖南中联重科智能高空作业机械 | 11.6% | 30.1% | | Access Machinery Co., | 有限公司 | | | | Ltd. | | | | | Zhejiang Dingli Machinery | 浙江鼎力机械股份有限公司 | 14.2% | 6.4% | | Co., Ltd. | | | | | ...