海关总署6月9日发布最新数据显示，今年前5个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值为17.94万亿元人民币，同比 （下同）增长2.5%。其中，出口10.67万亿元，增长7.2%；进口7.27万亿元，下降3.8%。 海关总署统计分析司司长吕大良表示，今年以来，我国经济持续回升向好，货物贸易在外部压力下保持较强韧 性。进入5月份，我国进出口延续增长态势，特别是中美经贸高层会谈之后，增速明显加快。当月在同比少2个 工作日的情况下，进出口、出口分别实现2.7%、6.3%的同比增长。 对美进出口降幅收窄 从贸易伙伴来看，今年前5个月，东盟仍是我国第一大贸易伙伴，我国与东盟贸易总值为3.02万亿元，增长 9.1%，占外贸总值的比重达到16.8%，较去年同期进一步提高。 欧美等发达经济体中，今年前5个月，我国与欧盟的进出口总值为2.3万亿元，增长2.9%。单从5月份来看，我 国与欧盟的进出口值增长了9.39%，其中对欧盟出口增长了13.58%。 当地时间5月12日上午9:00，中美双方发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》。根据联合声明，美方承诺取消 根据2025年4月8日第14259号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent tariff changes have led to a surge in shipping demand from China to the U.S., with container bookings increasing by 277% following the tariff reductions, indicating a significant uptick in trade activity between the two countries [2][3]. Shipping Demand and Pricing - The average booking volume for standard containers rose from 5,709 to 21,530 within a week, reflecting heightened shipping activity [2]. - Despite the increase in bookings, the actual shipping volume in May has remained stable, with only slight variations in the number of container ships departing for the U.S. [2]. - Shipping prices have surged, with major shipping companies raising rates for 40-foot containers to between $3,500 and $6,100 for routes to the U.S. West Coast [5][6]. Impact on Exporters - Many exporters are experiencing a backlog of orders due to previous tariff uncertainties, leading to a concentrated effort to ship goods to U.S. clients [4][5]. - The production cycle for goods typically takes about a month, suggesting that shipping volumes will continue to rise in the coming weeks as orders are fulfilled [3]. Market Dynamics - The Baltic Dry Index has seen a notable increase, indicating a broader trend of rising shipping costs across various routes [6]. - The current shipping price increases are seen as just the beginning, with further hikes expected in June due to seasonal demand [6]. - The shipping industry is facing a potential capacity crunch, as many shipping companies have reduced their fleet sizes despite an increase in demand [8]. Trade Relations - The U.S. remains China's largest export destination, and despite ongoing trade tensions, the bilateral trade volume is projected to reach $688.28 billion in 2024 [9][10]. - The dynamics of U.S.-China trade have shifted since 2018, with a reduced dependency on the U.S. market for Chinese exports, although recent trends indicate a resurgence in export activity [10].

【4】商务部发布中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明指出，美国将于5月14日前采取以下举措:修改4月2日第14257号行政 令中规定的对中国商品(包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区商品)加征的从价关税，其中，24W关税在初始的90 天内暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税;取消根据4月8日第14259号行政令和4月9 日第14266号行政令对这些商品的加征关税。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GERIK 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | 2025/5/15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 卢钊毅 | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 ...

Group 1 - The average daily container bookings from China to the U.S. surged nearly threefold, increasing from 5,709 TEUs to 21,530 TEUs, a rise of over 277% [1] - The increase in bookings follows the U.S. government's adjustment of tariffs on Chinese goods, which has led to a recovery in shipping volumes [2] - Some logistics companies reported a 35% increase in business inquiries within two days, indicating a potential rebound in logistics activities [3] Group 2 - Major shipping companies, such as Maersk, have introduced significant discounts for door-to-door shipping services to fill empty containers [3] - The overall recovery speed of the logistics business remains uncertain, despite the increase in bookings and inquiries [3]

鉴于美方根据中美经贸高层会谈共识撤销、暂停或调整有关对华加征关税，中方相应调整有关 关税和非关税对美反制措施。 相关阅读： 特别提示 微信公众号机制调整，请点击顶部"仪器信息网" → 右上方"…" → 设为 ★ 星标，否则很可能无 法看到我们的推送。 从商务部获悉，根据美国白宫5月12日发布的《修改对等关税税率以反映与中华人民共和国会 谈情况的行政令》，美方已于美东时间5月14日凌晨00:01撤销根据2025年4月8日第14259 号行政令和2025年4月9日第14266号行政令对中国商品(包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行 政区商品)加征的共计91%的关税，修改2025年4月2日第14257号行政令对中国商品(包括香 港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区商品)加征的34%的对等关税措施，其中24%的关税暂停加征 90天，保留剩余10%的关税。同时，美方还下调或撤销对中国小额包裹(包括香港特别行政区 小额包裹)加征的关税，将国际邮件从价税率由120%下调至54%，撤销原定于2025年6月1 日起将从量税由每件100美元调增为200美元的措施。 5月14日12时01分起，对美加征关税税率调整为10% 美取消部分加征关税：中 ...

外交部发言人林剑14日在例行记者会上回答提问时表示，美方以芬太尼为借口对中国无理加征两轮关 税，中方均第一时间采取包括关税和非关税措施在内的反制举措，坚定维护自身正当权益。这些反制 措施仍然有效。 有记者问： 据报道，中美在日内瓦举行经贸高层会谈后，中方将在初始90天内将对美商品关税从125%降 至10%，同时美方将对华商品关税降至30%，其中包括以芬太尼为由对华加征20%的关税。中方对此有何 评论？ 林剑说，中美双方在日内瓦的经贸会谈达成多项积极共识，同意大幅降低双边关税水平，美方承诺取消 91%关税，暂停实施24%的"对等关税"；相应地，中方也取消91%反制关税，暂停实施24%的反制关税。 双方各自保留10%的关税。 值得一提的是，今日（5月14日）12时01分起，我国对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税调整措施开始实 施。 有关事项如下： 一、调整《国务院关税税则委员会关于对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税的公告》（税委会公告2025年第 4号）规定的加征关税税率，由34%调整为10%，在90天内暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率。 二、停止实施《国务院关税税则委员会关于调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施的公告 ...

与华强北市场迅速"解冻"同步，众多外向型企业也闻风而动， 力图抓住90天"窗口期"。 作者： 郑晨烨 封图：图虫创意 "之前因关税问题而推迟或取消订单的客户，很多都来咨询了，有美国客户之前压了差不多9个集 装箱的产品，现在要求尽快发货。"2025年5月13日，深圳一家大型跨境物流公司的货运代理何先 生略带兴奋地告诉记者。 何先生所描述的，正是《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（下称《联合声明》）于5月12日下午3 点发布之后，外贸领域骤然回暖的一个侧影。 商务部新闻发言人就《联合声明》发表谈话时表示，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅 降低双边关税水平， 美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税 ；美方 暂停实施24%的"对等关税"（暂停90天），中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税（暂停90天）。这 一举措符合两国生产者和消费者的期待，也符合两国利益和世界共同利益。 "窗口期"突然开启 "如果90天窗口期内集中出货，可能会引发短暂的'抢运潮'。"张先生判断。 对此，一家大型国际快递企业的大客户销售人士陈程也向记者证实："大部分客户肯定是要抓住这 段时间多发点货了。不过从我们公司的整体货 ...

Group 1 - The US-China trade negotiations have resulted in a 90-day window where tariffs on Chinese exports to the US will be 30%, with a potential increase to 54% after this period, enhancing the certainty of performance for companies involved [1] - The adjustment in tariffs is expected to provide a short-term shipping and stocking window, while in the long term, domestic production capacity for exports to the US is likely to maintain good profitability [1] Group 2 - The European Union has imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese mobile elevating work platforms, with the lowest duty at 20.6% for Dingli, which is lower than foreign brands, indicating recognition of compliance and market operations [2] - The impact of these duties on the company's export orders and profitability is considered limited, as price increases are expected to be a trend, allowing for cost transfer to end customers [2] - The company is expected to enhance its market share in Europe as new production capacity is released in 2025, despite high tariffs acting as a barrier [2] Group 3 - The company is anticipated to see sustained performance growth due to successful trials with overseas clients, extended stocking windows, and the introduction of high-value products in Europe [3] - The company is also expanding into emerging markets and new business segments, which will contribute to steady growth [3] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate a net profit of 21 billion (31% YoY growth), 24 billion (14% YoY growth), and 28 billion (14% YoY growth) from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 12, 10, and 9 [3]

Core Points - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks have led to significant changes in tariffs, with China reducing its export tax rate to the US to 30% from a previous higher rate [1][6] - Both countries have agreed to modify their respective tariffs by May 14, 2025, with the US suspending 24% of tariffs on Chinese goods for the first 90 days [2][3] Group 1: US Actions - The US will amend the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, suspending 24% of the tariffs for the initial 90 days while retaining a 10% tariff [2] - The US will cancel additional tariffs imposed under specific executive orders, reducing the overall tariff burden on Chinese imports [2][4] Group 2: China Actions - China will similarly suspend 24% of tariffs on US goods for the first 90 days and maintain a 10% tariff [3] - China will take necessary measures to suspend or cancel non-tariff retaliatory measures against the US starting April 2, 2025 [3][6]

Group 1 - The joint statement from the US-China Geneva trade talks indicates progress that aligns with the expectations of producers and consumers in both countries, as well as global interests [2] - A significant reduction in tariffs has been noted, with the US canceling 91% of tariffs and postponing 24% of tariffs for 90 days, providing relief to American businesses affected by these costs [2] - The outcome of the trade talks exceeded initial expectations, with US public opinion initially hoping for a reduction to a 50% tariff threshold [4] Group 2 - Chinese exporters, particularly in the apparel sector, view the joint statement as a major positive development, suggesting that the current tariff levels allow for more constructive discussions in international trade [7] - American citizens have expressed that the substantial cancellation and suspension of tariffs by the US government indicate recognition of the economic damage caused by previous high tariffs [7] - Analysts warn that if the US does not halt high tariffs on China, it may soon face severe shortages of goods, as evidenced by the lack of Chinese vessels at US ports [7]