盈利预测：2025-2027 年公司有望实现营业收入430.4、527.4、619.4 亿元，归母净利润49.0、62.2、76.2 亿元，维持"推荐"评级。 事件：10 月9 日，公司发布2025 年9 月产销快报，实现客车销量4,756辆，同比+25.6%、环比+11.6%； 实现客车产量4,447 辆，同比+14.7%、环比+6.8%。1-9 月公司累计实现客车销量3.4 万辆，同比 +7.1%。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧；原材料价格波动；关税等贸易壁垒风险。 新获多项国际奖项认可，欧洲城间车布局加速：10 月3 日，公司于比利时世界客车博览会重磅亮相，携 全新产品、前沿技术及智能解决方案，并凭借在整车性能、安全与环保等方面的卓越表现，一举斩获7 项大奖，创历史新高。除整车奖项外，其Link+车队管理系统与智能座舱系统亦获认可，充分彰显软硬 件一体化整合能力。此外，公司首次发布纯电城间车IC12E，搭载"车电同寿"长寿命电池技术，可实现 15 年或150 万公里超长使用寿命，助力运营商降低全生命周期成本约4%–5%，有望助力公司进一步拓 展欧洲新能源增量市场。 国际赛事规模订单持续交付，中长期增量可观：9 ...

Group 1 - The company reported a significant increase in bus sales for August 2023, achieving 4,260 units sold, which represents a year-on-year growth of 16.8% and a month-on-month increase of 32.3% [1] - The production for August was 4,165 units, showing a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year but an increase of 8.2% month-on-month [1] - Cumulative sales from January to August reached 29,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, indicating a continuous expansion in sales momentum [1] Group 2 - The company has successfully tested its new generation pure electric intercity bus IC12E in Italy, marking its entry into the European electric intercity bus market [2] - The IC12E has been delivered to the V.I.T.A. transport company in Italy and is now in operation, contributing to the company's comprehensive electric product matrix [2] - The company signed four cooperation agreements in Chile, totaling over 300 million RMB, further solidifying its presence in the Latin American market [2] Group 3 - Revenue forecasts for the company from 2025 to 2027 are projected to be 43.04 billion, 52.74 billion, and 61.94 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 4.90 billion, 6.22 billion, and 7.62 billion RMB [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in bus sales and production for June 2025, indicating a strong recovery and improvement in the structure of sales, particularly in the new energy sector [1] Group 1: Sales and Production Performance - In June 2025, the company achieved bus sales of 5,919 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.8% and a month-on-month increase of 93.9% [1] - The bus production for June 2025 reached 5,528 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 29.9% and a month-on-month growth of 61.0% [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company sold 21,000 buses, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, while the sales for Q2 2025 were 12,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.0% but a month-on-month increase of 36.6% [1] Group 2: Market Expansion and Orders - The company secured a project for the replacement of 68 old buses in Sanmenxia, Henan Province, with a total bid amount exceeding 40 million yuan, averaging 635,000 yuan per bus [2] - The domestic market is expected to see accelerated orders and deliveries for new energy buses in the second half of the year due to effective implementation of bus scrapping and replacement policies [2] - In the overseas market, the company has made significant progress in Central Asia, winning contracts for 700 fuel buses in Turkmenistan and 200 new energy buses in Uzbekistan, along with a recent order for 1,000 units in Kazakhstan [2] Group 3: Product Development and Delivery - The company delivered its first batch of six new generation pure electric intercity buses, IC12E, to an Italian operator, marking a breakthrough in the European market [2] - The IC12E model is designed for high-frequency intercity operations, featuring a continuous power output of 215/250 kW and a peak output of 350 kW, with a range of 610 kilometers under Sort2 conditions [2] Group 4: Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 42.97 billion yuan, 48.43 billion yuan, and 52.97 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits attributable to the parent company expected to be 4.88 billion yuan, 5.68 billion yuan, and 6.30 billion yuan respectively [3]