行业报告 | 行业研究周报 基础化工 证券研究报告 国家发改委：支持石化化工行业节能降碳改造，煤化 工项目低碳化改造，双氧水、硫酸铵价格上涨 上周指 25 年 10 月 6-12 日（下同），本周指 25 年 10 月 13-19 日（下同）。 本周重点新闻跟踪 国家发展改革委 10 月 14 日消息，国家发展改革委近日印发的《节能降碳中央预算 内投资专项管理办法》(以下简称《办法》)指出，支持石化、化工等重点行业节能 降碳改造；支持煤化工项目低碳化改造。《办法》强调，国家发展改革委组织编报 年度中央预算内投资计划时，聚焦有利于实现"双碳"目标、节能降碳潜力大的领 域，确定当年具体支持项目范围和要求。本专项中央预算内投资应当用于前期手续 齐全、具备开工条件的计划新开工或在建项目，不得用于已完工(含试运行)项目。 本周重点产品价格跟踪点评 本周 WTI 油价下跌 2.3%，为 57.54 美元/桶。 重点关注子行业：本周纯 MDI/有机硅/烧碱/TDI 价格分别上涨 1.4%/0.9%/0.8%/0.4%；VE/聚合 MDI/DMF/乙二醇/固体蛋氨酸/电石法 PVC/VA/橡胶/ 醋酸/液体蛋氨酸/乙烯法 P ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [7] Core Viewpoints - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry grew by 9.5% in the first two months of the year [2][3] - The prices of DMF and urea have increased, with DMF prices rising by 6.1% and urea prices continuing to rise due to strong industrial demand [3][4] - The basic chemical sector underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 0.12% compared to a slight increase of 0.01% in the index [5][17] Summary by Sections Key News Tracking - In January-February, the industrial added value of large-scale industries increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with 36 out of 41 major industries showing growth [2][14] - The chemical raw materials and products manufacturing sector specifically saw a growth of 9.5% [2][14] Key Product Price Tracking - WTI oil price increased by 1.6% to $69.36 per barrel [3] - Significant price increases were noted in DMF (+6.1%), urea (+3.3%), and other chemical products [3][30] - The top five chemical products with the highest price increases included trichloroethylene (+11.7%) and hexafluoropropylene (+9.9%) [3][30] Sector Performance - The basic chemical sector's performance was ranked 11th among all sectors, with a decline of 0.12% [5][17] - Notable sub-sectors with significant weekly gains included other chemical raw materials (+10.18%) and polyester (+7.55%) [5][20] Focused Sub-industry Insights - The report suggests focusing on industries with stable demand and supply logic, such as refrigerants and phosphates [6] - Recommendations include companies like Juhua Co., Yuntianhua, and Wanhua Chemical for potential investment opportunities [6] Price and Spread Monitoring - Among 345 tracked chemical products, 77 saw price increases while 99 experienced declines [29] - The report highlights specific products with notable price changes, such as DMF and trichloroethylene [30][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the organic silicon industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The peak production period for organic silicon has passed, and companies are collaborating to reduce output, leading to a potential price recovery from the bottom [1]. - Domestic organic silicon DMC capacity increased from 1.515 million tons/year in 2019 to 3.44 million tons/year by 2024, with limited new capacity expected in the future [1]. - As of March 19, 2025, the average market price for organic silicon was 14,500 CNY/ton, reflecting an 11.5% increase since the beginning of the year, although profit margins remain negative [1]. - The demand for organic silicon is steadily growing, with a CAGR of approximately 10.7% from 2020 to 2024, driven primarily by the construction and electronics sectors [3]. - The report suggests that the limited new supply and increasing demand will likely stabilize and improve the pricing and profitability of organic silicon products [1][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Overview - The organic silicon industry is experiencing a supply reduction due to increased maintenance and repairs among producers, with 182,000 tons of capacity under maintenance as of February 19, 2025 [2]. - The inventory levels of organic silicon DMC are stable, with a slight increase since September 2024, but still within the median range of the past three years [2]. Section 2: Demand and Applications - The apparent consumption of organic silicon DMC in China rose from 1.21 million tons in 2020 to 1.82 million tons in 2024, with significant growth in exports at a CAGR of 22.5% during the same period [3]. - Key application areas for organic silicon include construction and electronics, which account for 25% and 23% of consumption, respectively [3]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in high-end construction sealants and materials for photovoltaic and electric vehicle sectors, driven by policy support and technological advancements [3]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the organic silicon production sector such as Hoshine Silicon Industry, Xingfa Group, and New安股份, as well as application companies like Ruifeng New Materials and Silica宝科技 [3].