证券研究报告 基础化工周报：主流厂商挺价意愿强，维生素E价格回升 大化工首席分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 石化化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年2月8日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【聚氨酯板块】本周纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业均价为17500/13900/14377元/吨，环比分别-43/+36/+292元/吨，纯MDI/聚 合MDI/TDI行业毛利分别为4097/1497/2345元/吨，环比分别-75/+4/+74元/吨。 ◼ 【油煤气烯烃板块】 ①本周乙烷/丙烷/动力煤/石脑油均价分别为1277/4399/520/4137元/吨，环比分别-139/+51/+0/+63元 /吨。②本周聚乙烯均价为7167元/吨，环比+5元/吨，乙烷裂解/CTO/石脑油裂解制聚乙烯理论利润分别为847/1444/-305元/ 吨，环比分别+140/+5/-60元/吨。③本周聚丙烯均价为6600元/吨，环比+50元/吨，P ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [66]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong price support from factories, with solid methionine prices rebounding [1]. - The average prices for various chemical products are provided, showing fluctuations in pricing and profitability across different segments [2]. - The report identifies key listed companies in the chemical sector, including Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and others [2]. Summary by Sections 2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trends - The report includes a weekly overview of the basic chemical index trends, indicating overall market movements [10]. 2.2 Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are reported as 17,543, 13,864, and 14,085 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -171, -36, and +110 CNY/ton [2]. - The gross margins for these products are 4,171, 1,493, and 2,363 CNY/ton, reflecting changes of -332, -196, and -15 CNY/ton [2]. 2.3 Oil, Coal, and Olefin Sector - Average prices for ethane, propane, thermal coal, and naphtha are reported as 1,416, 4,349, 520, and 4,074 CNY/ton respectively, with increases of +147, +52, +0, and +171 CNY/ton [2]. - The average price for polyethylene is 7,162 CNY/ton, showing a rise of +62 CNY/ton [2]. - The theoretical profits for ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking for polyethylene production are reported as 694, 1,438, and -245 CNY/ton, with respective changes of -161, +41, and -127 CNY/ton [2]. 2.4 Coal Chemical Sector - Average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,184, 1,745, 3,962, and 2,579 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -27, +5, +68, and -21 CNY/ton [2]. - The gross margins for these products are 199, 72, -92, and 445 CNY/ton, reflecting changes of -21, +1, +10, and -8 CNY/ton [2]. 2.5 Animal Nutrition Sector - Average prices for VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine are reported as 61.5, 55.1, 17.9, and 14.2 CNY/kg respectively, with changes of -0.7, +0.6, +0.3, and +0.0 CNY/kg [2].

孙颖 中泰证券建材和化工首席: 其实近期整个化工行情的演绎，我们认为跟双碳的这个指标，双碳的这个政策的一个变化 是非常相关的。就整个就是未来会把这个碳的单耗，然后包括碳的总量，就纳入到整个就 是政府的这个考核体系里面去，然后且同时，国家明出，明确提出来，就是 30 年要就是 化工行业要达峰那么就是我们国家做事情，肯定要富有一些余量，所以就整个我们周一聊 的那个专家，他其实讲到就是各地政府会尽量的希望，就是在 28 年，能够就是进行这个 碳达峰。那么其实很多的建材，就碳已经达峰了，因为已经就是需求在往下走了。 但是化工的碳，华工的很多行业就是还没有实现这个碳碳达峰，那么 27 年的话，化工就 会被纳入到这个双碳的这个，这个考核体系里面去，所以这个是对于化工非常大的一个变 化当然绿电的这个政策，就是未来就是有绿电资源的公司，它的价值也会实现一个比较大 的一个重估。对，所以这个又加上了一个双碳的这个逻辑。那同时在我们讲到供给有收缩 当然这种供给它跟有色还是没有办法比，因为大家看到的有色，它其实是供给没有增加， 或者说供给甚至还在收缩，然后需求还在增长。 但是大家也要考虑到，就是有色的其实已已经涨了很多年了，化工是跌 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [67]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant price fluctuations in the chemical sector due to extreme weather conditions affecting natural gas prices in the U.S. [1]. - The average prices for various chemical products, including pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI, have shown a decline compared to the previous week, with respective price changes of -129, -114, and -213 CNY/ton [2]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of profit margins across different segments, indicating a decrease in margins for pure MDI and polymer MDI, while TDI margins remained relatively stable [2]. Summary by Sections 2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trends - The basic chemical index has shown a weekly increase of 7.3% as of January 23, 2026, with a year-to-date increase of 16.8% [8]. 2.2 Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are reported at 17,714, 13,900, and 13,975 CNY/ton respectively, with corresponding profit margins of 4,503, 1,689, and 2,459 CNY/ton [2][16]. 2.3 Oil, Coal, and Olefin Sector - Ethane and propane prices have increased by 210 and 21 CNY/ton respectively, while the average price for coal remains stable at 520 CNY/ton [2][22]. - The average price for polyethylene is reported at 7,100 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 15 CNY/ton [2][28]. 2.4 Coal Chemical Sector - The average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,211, 1,740, 3,894, and 2,600 CNY/ton respectively, with minor fluctuations in profit margins [2][41]. 2.5 Animal Nutrition Sector - The average prices for VA, VE, solid egg, and liquid egg are reported at 62.2, 54.5, 17.6, and 14.2 CNY/kg respectively, with minimal changes observed [2][54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the average prices of pure MDI, polymerized MDI, and TDI in the polyurethane industry were 17,843 yuan/ton, 14,014 yuan/ton, and 14,188 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 200 yuan/ton, 157 yuan/ton, and 290 yuan/ton. Their respective gross profits also declined [2]. - In the oil - gas - olefin sector, prices of raw materials such as ethane, propane, etc. had different changes this week. The average prices of polyethylene and polypropylene increased, and the theoretical profits of different production routes also changed accordingly [2]. - In the coal - chemical industry, the average prices of synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid had slight fluctuations, and their gross profits also changed slightly [2]. - In the animal nutrition products sector, the average prices of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine had minor changes this week [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basic Chemical Weekly Data Briefing - **Related Company Performance Tracking** - The Basic Chemical Index had a weekly increase of 0.9%, a monthly increase of 12.3%, a quarterly increase of 12.9%, an annual increase of 44.7%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.0% as of 2026/1/16. Different chemical companies had different performance in terms of stock price changes and earnings. For example, Wanhua Chemical's stock price decreased by 0.8% this week, while Baofeng Energy's increased by 5.2% [8]. - The report also provided data on the total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of relevant companies from 2024A to 2027E [8]. - **Industry Chain Data** - **Polyurethane Industry Chain**: The average prices and gross profits of pure MDI, polymerized MDI, and TDI decreased this week. Their respective seven - year quantiles were 51%, 45%, and 65% for prices, and 71%, 49%, and 71% for gross profits [8]. - **Oil - Gas - Olefin Industry Chain**: - **Raw Material Prices**: The average prices of ethane, propane, NYMEX natural gas, Brent crude oil, and naphtha had different changes. Their ten - year quantiles also varied [8]. - **Profit Comparison of Different Routes**: The single - ton profits of different production routes for polyethylene and polypropylene had different changes compared to the previous week, the beginning of the year, and the same period last year [8]. - **C2 and C3 Plates**: The average prices and price differences between products and raw materials in the C2 and C3 plates had different changes, with different ten - year quantiles. For example, the price of ethylene decreased by 90 yuan/ton, and the price difference between HDPE and ethylene increased by 353 yuan/ton [10]. - **Coal - Chemical Industry Chain**: - **Coal - Coke Products**: The average prices of coking coal and coke decreased, and the gross profit of coke was - 47 yuan/ton, with a 3 - yuan decrease [10]. - **Traditional Coal - Chemical Products**: The average prices and gross profits of synthetic ammonia, methanol, urea, DMF, and acetic acid had different changes, with different seven - year quantiles [10]. - **New Materials**: The average prices and gross profits of DMC, oxalic acid, octanol, adipic acid, caprolactam, PA6, and PA66 had different changes, with different seven - year quantiles [10]. - **Animal Nutrition Products Industry Chain**: The average prices of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine changed slightly, with different ten - year quantiles [10]. 2. Basic Chemical Weekly Report - **2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trends**: The report did not provide specific content in the text, only the title. - **2.2 Polyurethane Sector**: The report presented the price trends of pure MDI, polymerized MDI, and TDI in China, as well as their price - spread situations [16][18][20]. - **2.3 Oil - Gas - Olefin Sector**: It showed the price trends of raw materials such as MB ethane, NYMEX natural gas, East China propane, Brent crude oil, domestic steam coal, and naphtha, and the profit situations of different production routes for polyethylene and polypropylene [24][27][29]. - **2.4 Coal - Chemical Sector**: The report presented the price trends and gross profit situations of coal - coke products, traditional coal - chemical products, and new materials in the coal - chemical industry [40][46][51]. - **2.5 Animal Nutrition Products Sector**: It showed the price trends of VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine [55][59][61].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [70]. Core Insights - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are reported at 18,043, 14,171, and 14,478 CNY/ton respectively, with TDI showing a week-on-week increase of 59 CNY/ton [2]. - The average prices for ethane, propane, and coal are 1,165, 4,172, and 520 CNY/ton respectively, with ethane decreasing by 85 CNY/ton and propane increasing by 45 CNY/ton [2]. - The average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,213, 1,724, 3,787, and 2,546 CNY/ton respectively, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 34 CNY/ton and urea increasing by 12 CNY/ton [2]. - The average prices for animal nutrition products such as VA and VE are 62.5 and 54.9 CNY/kg respectively, with no significant changes [2]. Summary by Sections Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 18,043, 14,171, and 14,478 CNY/ton respectively, with TDI showing a week-on-week increase of 59 CNY/ton [2][16][20]. Oil, Coal, and Olefins Sector - Ethane and propane average prices are 1,165 and 4,172 CNY/ton respectively, with ethane decreasing by 85 CNY/ton and propane increasing by 45 CNY/ton [2][24][31]. - The average price for polyethylene is 6,800 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 30 CNY/ton [2]. Coal Chemical Sector - The average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,213, 1,724, 3,787, and 2,546 CNY/ton respectively, with synthetic ammonia decreasing by 34 CNY/ton and urea increasing by 12 CNY/ton [2][40][48][49]. Animal Nutrition Sector - The average prices for VA, VE, solid egg amino acid, and liquid egg amino acid are 62.5, 54.9, 17.6, and 14.2 CNY/kg respectively, with no significant changes [2][56][62].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hualu Hengsheng, is making significant strides in its strategic layout during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, achieving high-quality development through the establishment of its second base in Hubei and the successful implementation of various projects [1][4][10]. Group 1: Strategic Development - Hualu Hengsheng has established a dual-base operational model with its headquarters in Dezhou and a new base in Jingzhou, enhancing its collaborative development [1][4]. - The company has invested 26 billion yuan over the past five years, completing 15 transformation and upgrade projects, which have strengthened its core business [4][5]. - Total assets have increased from 21 billion yuan to 47.2 billion yuan, net assets from 15.9 billion yuan to 32.9 billion yuan, and operating income from 13.2 billion yuan to 34.2 billion yuan during the same period [4]. Group 2: Innovation and Technology - The company has invested 5 billion yuan in R&D over the last five years, leading to over 270 authorized patents and the development of new products such as carbonates [5][6]. - Hualu Hengsheng has implemented various innovative projects to enhance process technology and equipment levels, achieving industry-leading operational indicators [5][6]. Group 3: Operational Excellence - The company has established a market-oriented operational mechanism, achieving a long-term stable operation with a 100% product sales rate and payment recovery rate [6][7]. - Hualu Hengsheng has been recognized as an industry leader in energy efficiency for 13 consecutive years, demonstrating its commitment to operational excellence [6]. Group 4: Environmental and Social Responsibility - The company emphasizes green development, significantly reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions through the development of low-carbon products [7][19]. - Hualu Hengsheng has paid a total of 7.5 billion yuan in taxes over the past five years, contributing to local economic support [7][12]. - The company has increased its cash dividend ratio, distributing 6.344 billion yuan in dividends over the last five years, which is over 30% of its distributable profits [7][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Hualu Hengsheng plans to continue its dual-base operational strategy, focusing on low-cost operations and high-quality development [16][17]. - The company aims to enhance its product offerings in specialized and new materials, targeting emerging fields such as energy storage and electronic chemicals [17].

Summary of Hualu-Hengsheng Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Hualu-Hengsheng - **Industry**: Coal-based chemicals - **Main Products**: Urea (1.8 million tons per annum), DMF (250,000 tons per annum), acetic acid (500,000 tons per annum), hydrogen nitrate (600,000 tons per annum), polyol (750,000 tons per annum) [12][12] Key Points Industry Dynamics - **Caprolactam Price Recovery**: As of December 24, 2025, the market price of caprolactam was Rmb9,475 per ton, reflecting an 18% increase since early November due to producers limiting production to stabilize market expectations [2][2] - **Urea Capacity**: Domestic obsolete urea capacities are estimated to account for 10-12%, suggesting potential benefits for urea fundamentals from industry anti-involution [2][2] Profitability Outlook - **Product Spreads**: Current spreads for key products (urea, acetic acid, DMF, caprolactam) are at 10-year percentiles of 8%, 29%, 8%, and 15% respectively. Expected improvements in profitability for 2026 include: 1. Caprolactam spread improvement due to moderated supply growth and strong pricing willingness from producers 2. Stabilization of acetic acid and DMF profitability at trough levels amid slowing capacity additions 3. Urea profitability benefiting from exports and potential exit of obsolete capacities [3][3] Growth Drivers - **Medium and Long-term Earnings Growth**: 1. Recovery in product profitability driven by industry self-discipline and anti-involution measures 2. Incremental profit from the Jingzhou project, with Phase II ramping up capacity and Phase III planning TDI capacity of 300,000 tons per annum [4][4] Valuation and Ratings - **Price Target Increase**: Price target raised from Rmb32.1 to Rmb36.1, with a "Buy" rating maintained. The chemical industry has been re-rated due to enhanced self-discipline and price hikes [5][5] - **Earnings Forecasts**: 2025-2027 earnings estimates increased by 1-5%, with medium-term ROIC lifted from 15% to 18% [5][5] Financial Metrics - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb65.4 billion (approximately US$9.32 billion) - **Current Share Price**: Rmb30.79 as of December 24, 2025 - **52-week Range**: Rmb30.79 - Rmb19.88 - **Average Daily Volume**: 18,217,000 shares [6][6] Earnings Projections - **EPS Estimates**: - 2025E: Rmb1.54 (up 1% from previous estimate) - 2026E: Rmb2.22 (up 5%) - 2027E: Rmb2.78 (up 5%) [7][7] Risks - **Potential Risks**: Include weakening demand for coal chemical products, reduced cost competitiveness in low oil price environments, and faster-than-expected new urea capacity launches leading to oversupply [13][13] Conclusion - Hualu-Hengsheng is positioned to benefit from industry recovery and strategic project developments, with a positive outlook on profitability and valuation adjustments reflecting improved market conditions.

Group 1 - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 19186, 14721, and 14693 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -293, +93, and +234 CNY/ton [1] - The gross margins for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 6149, 2684, and 2769 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -240, +145, and +3 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - The average prices for ethane, propane, thermal coal, and naphtha are 1324, 4166, 522, and 3790 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -102, -122, -8, and -166 CNY/ton [2] - The average price for polyethylene is 6933 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 113 CNY/ton, while the theoretical profits for ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking for polyethylene are 625, 1291, and -132 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +41, -44, and +104 CNY/ton [2] - The average price for polypropylene is 6000 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 70 CNY/ton, and the theoretical profits for PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking for polypropylene are -758, 861, and -393 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +65, -25, and +120 CNY/ton [2] Group 3 - The average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2346, 1702, 3739, and 2422 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +29, -3, -75, and +15 CNY/ton [2] - The gross margins for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 331, 33, -396, and 225 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +53, +10, -49, and -2 CNY/ton [2] Group 4 - Related listed companies in the chemical sector include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, New Hope Liuhe, and Andisu [3]

证券日报网讯12月12日，兴化股份（002109）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，目前公司主要经营实 体为全资子公司兴化化工和控股子公司榆神能化。兴化化工和榆神能化均属于煤化工生产企业，主营业 务为煤制合成氨、甲醇、甲胺、DMF、乙醇、乙酸甲酯的生产和销售。公司子公司主要产品大部分为 基础化工产品，其广泛应用于化工、农业、国防、能源、医药等诸多领域，具体产品简介及用途请参见 公司年度报告"第三节管理层讨论与分析"相关内容。 ...