Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight, but the market doubts the tight pattern. In China, short - term supply shortage supports cotton prices, but weak downstream demand limits the upside. In the medium - term, new cotton listing will suppress prices [2] - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar market has complex changes in exports. The domestic sugar market faces pressure from imported sugar, but potential delays in the new sugar - making season may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [4][6][7] - For pulp, the supply pressure remains in the second half of 2025, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [9][10] Summary by Product Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 14,100 yuan/ton yesterday, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,080 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the national average was 15,243 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. India will exempt cotton import tariffs from August 19 - September 30 [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA cut global cotton production and ending stocks, but the market doubts the tight pattern, and ICE cotton is in a shock range. Domestic: Zhengzhou cotton rose with the external market. Short - term supply shortage supports prices, but weak downstream demand limits the upside. Medium - term, new cotton listing will bring new pressure [2] Strategy - Neutral. Low inventory and upcoming textile peak season support prices, but policy regulation and long - term industrial factors limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,661 yuan/ton yesterday, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.19%) from the previous day. Spot: Sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,980 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan/ton. In July 2025, Brazilian sugar exports decreased, while ethanol exports increased [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian sugar production and crushing data are mixed, and some institutions are lowering Brazilian sugar production estimates. Domestic: The sales progress of domestic sugar has slowed down, and the pressure of imported sugar is increasing [6] Strategy - Neutral. Pressured by processed sugar supply, Zhengzhou sugar will oscillate. In the medium - term, low inventory and potential delays in the new sugar - making season may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 5,178 yuan/ton yesterday, down 74 yuan/ton (-1.41%) from the previous day. Spot: Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton; Russian needle pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton. The imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices following the decline of the futures [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased, and domestic production capacity will be put into operation in the second half. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains. Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US, and weak domestic demand due to the off - season. Terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [9] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [10]

Core Viewpoint - Cotton prices are experiencing fluctuations, with mixed growth conditions for U.S. cotton, indicating potential supply and demand challenges in the market [1] Group 1: Market Overview - The closing price for cotton futures (contract 2509) was 13,655 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or -0.15% from the previous day [1] - The spot price for 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,081 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a national average price of 15,169 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton [1] Group 2: U.S. Cotton Growth Conditions - As of August 3, the blooming rate of U.S. cotton in 15 major planting states was 87%, which is 3 percentage points slower than the same period last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five-year average [1] - The setting rate was 55%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five-year average [1] - The quality rate was 55%, which is 10 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five-year average [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Internationally, the supply side is minimally affected by weather this year, with a potential oversupply in the global cotton market for the 2025/26 season [1] - U.S. cotton planting area exceeded expectations, and drought conditions have improved, but new export contracts are weak, leading to a lack of upward momentum in international cotton prices [1] - Domestically, cotton commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, with low import volumes expected in the third quarter and tight inventory before the new cotton harvest [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The good growth conditions for new cotton and strong production expectations may pressure cotton prices in the fourth quarter, with uncertain demand prospects for the second half of the year [1] - The strategy suggests that due to ample global cotton supply in the new year and a lack of upward drivers in the industry, cotton prices may face short-term pressure and fluctuations [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are neutral [3][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern. US cotton prices are expected to oscillate, while Zhengzhou cotton has limited upside due to factors like new cotton supply and weak demand [2][3] - For sugar, the global sugar market anticipates an increase in production. Zhengzhou sugar prices will likely be range - bound in the short term and in a downward cycle in the long term [5][6] - For pulp, short - term macro - sentiment boosts prices, but supply pressure and weak demand will keep prices at a low level in the near future [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 14,225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (+0.28%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,416 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,549 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1] - US cotton: As of July 20, the budding rate was 71%, 8 percentage points slower than last year; the boll - setting rate was 33%, 7 percentage points slower than last year; the good - quality rate was 57%, 4 percentage points higher than last year [1] Market Analysis - International: The supply - side weather narrative is weak, and the global cotton market will have a loose supply in the 25/26 season. US cotton prices will oscillate [2] - Domestic: Cotton commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the quota is not issued, and imports will be low. However, new cotton is expected to have a good harvest, and demand is weak [2] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton 09 may rise, but the 01 contract has limited upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,823 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.27%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - India: As of mid - July 2025, India exported 65 - 70 million tons of sugar, aiming for 80 million tons by September [4] Market Analysis - International: The market is trading the expectation of global sugar production increase, and the upside of raw sugar is limited [5] - Domestic: Domestic sugar prices are firm, but imports are increasing, and there is pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [5] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, trade within the range; in the long term, sell on rallies [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,368 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.64%) from the previous day [7] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,285 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased, and domestic pulp production capacity will be put into operation. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption is weak, and domestic demand is affected by the off - season. Terminal demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, pulp prices may stay at the bottom. Look for short - selling opportunities after the macro - stimulus ends [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][5][8] Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly, but in the long - term, the cotton market will be in a supply - surplus pattern, and cotton prices are expected to be under pressure [2] - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weakly oscillating within a range, and a high - selling and low - buying strategy is recommended. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is maintained [5] - The pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term due to the unresolved supply - demand contradiction and the lack of positive drivers in the industry chain [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,990 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton (+1.01%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,215 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,272 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: As of July 11, India's new - season cotton sown area was 9.3 million hectares, about 2.1% less than the same period last year. In May 2025, US wholesalers' clothing and clothing fabric sales were $14.005 billion, up 8.11% year - on - year and 1.94% month - on - month [1] Market Analysis - International: The July USDA supply - demand report was bearish, and the 25/26 global cotton market will be in a supply - loose pattern. The USDA raised the forecast of US cotton production, and the US cotton balance sheet is unlikely to improve significantly [2] - Domestic: The rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton inventory and weather disturbances support the recent rise of Zhengzhou cotton. However, domestic cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase, and new cotton is growing well. The weak off - season demand restricts the upward space of cotton prices, and new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,808 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.10%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - Market News: ICRA expects India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season to reach 34 million tons, a 15% increase from the previous season [3] Market Analysis - International: The market is optimistic about the supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in the 25/26 season. The long - term downward pressure on raw sugar remains, but there is a possibility of a short - term rebound [4] - Domestic: The fast sales of domestic sugar this season and low industrial inventory support the spot price. However, the rebound of import profit and expected import increase will limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar [4] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,242 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.38%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,935 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6] - Market News: The price of imported wood pulp showed a weakening trend, with some softwood pulp prices falling and some hardwood pulp prices rising slightly [6] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased year - on - year, and domestic pulp production capacity will increase in the second half of the year. High port inventory levels mean that supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [7] - Demand: Paper pulp consumption in Europe and the US has been weak, and domestic demand is also weak due to the off - season. The planned increase in finished paper production capacity has not led to a significant increase in demand, and terminal demand is expected to improve only slightly in the second half of the year [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply, and the new - year cotton price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to - long term, although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly [2] - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in a range, and the medium - to - long term view is to sell short on rallies. The import volume in July - August is expected to increase, which will limit the upside space [5] - The short - term macro - favorable factors boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,286 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF09 + 1436, up 29 from the previous day; the national average price was 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF09 + 1452, up 32 from the previous day [1] - As of July 13, the budding rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 61%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 23%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 54%, 9 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The July USDA supply - demand report raised the global cotton production and ending stocks, with a bearish adjustment direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will be in a loose supply pattern. The USDA raised the new US cotton production, and the new - year US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve significantly [2] - Domestic: The domestic cotton commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the short - term expectation of tight supply at the end of the year supports Zhengzhou cotton. However, the domestic cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase, the new cotton is growing well, and the demand in the off - season is weak, so the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the medium - to - long term, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly, the new - year cotton market will be in a pattern of oversupply, and the medium - to - long term cotton price is expected to be under pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,802 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR09 + 258, up 15 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR09 + 103, up 15 from the previous day [2] - As of the second half of June in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 206.198 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.06%; the ATR of cane was 122.19 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 6.14 kg/ton; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 51.02%, a year - on - year increase of 2.33%; the cumulative ethanol production was 9.425 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.81%; the cumulative sugar production was 12.249 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.25% [3] Market Analysis - International: The current market is optimistic about the supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season. The long - term raw sugar price is under downward pressure, but there is a possibility of a short - term oversold rebound [4] - Domestic: The sales and production progress of domestic sugar in this sugar - crushing season is fast, and the industrial inventory has dropped to a historical low, making the spot price relatively firm. However, the rebound of the import profit after the quota due to the weakening of the external market, and the expected increase in imports in July - August will limit the upside space of Zhengzhou sugar [5] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in a range. It is recommended to sell high and buy low in the range. The medium - to - long term view is to sell short on rallies, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,262 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP09 + 688, down 18 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5,215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP09 - 47, down 18 from the previous day [6] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was generally stable, with some pulp types showing price increases due to sellers' reluctance to sell at low prices. The prices of some softwood pulp grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, Northeast China, Henan, and Hebei dropped by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the prices of some hardwood pulp grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Northeast China, Hebei, and Henan increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton; the supply - demand of imported natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp changed little, and the prices were stable [6] Market Analysis - Supply: The import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year in the first half of 2025, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in hardwood pulp imports was relatively large. The import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline in the second half of the year, but the port inventory is high, and the supply pressure in the second half of the year still exists, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [7] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US has been weak this year, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. The domestic demand is weak due to the traditional off - season, the inventory pressure of finished paper is rising, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term macro - favorable factors boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [8]

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The cotton market is in a state of shock, with the domestic market having a tightening supply - demand expectation in the later part of this year, but the new - year planting area is increasing and the demand is in the off - season. The international market is affected by the USDA report and weather conditions, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the macro - environment [1][2] - Sugar: The global sugar market may be in an increasing production cycle, with the 25/26 season's supply changing from shortage to surplus. Zhengzhou sugar is dragged down by the weak external market [5][6] - Pulp: The pulp market has a loose supply pattern, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [6][7] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,525 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,775 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,891 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton [1] - Pakistan's exports: In May 2025, textile and clothing exports were 1.531 billion US dollars, down 1.75% year - on - year and up 25.42% month - on - month [1] Sugar - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,658 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.37%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,855 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [4] - Brazil's ports: As of the week of June 18, the number of ships waiting to load sugar was 76, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.8539 million tons, down 56,500 tons (1.94%) from the previous week [4] Pulp - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,254 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian needles was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Imports: China's pulp imports in May 2025 were 3.016 million tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 6.9% year - on - year [6] Group 4: Market Analysis Cotton - Macro: Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, but the macro - environment is still uncertain [2] - International: The USDA report adjusted down the global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, and the ending stocks decreased. The US cotton - growing areas have improved drought conditions [2] - Domestic: The commercial cotton inventory is accelerating the destocking, but the new - year planting area is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season [2] Sugar - International: Although energy prices support the international sugar price, the expected increase in production in the 25/26 season in Brazil, India and Thailand has put pressure on the price [5] - Domestic: The domestic sales data is good, but the supply pressure is increasing due to the weakening of the external market [6] Pulp - Supply: The long - term contract price of Arauco has been continuously lowered, and the domestic imports have increased. The port inventory is at a high level [7] - Demand: European demand has not improved significantly, and domestic downstream demand is weak. The papermaking industry is in the off - season [7] Group 5: Strategies - Cotton: Adopt a neutral strategy, and expect the cotton price to fluctuate in a range in the short term [3] - Sugar: Adopt a neutral - to - bearish strategy, and focus on Brazil's production and domestic import rhythm [6] - Pulp: Adopt a neutral strategy, and expect the pulp price to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][4][7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current tariff policy has high uncertainty, and there is a strong expectation of a bumper cotton harvest in Xinjiang in the new year. The domestic market has entered the consumption off - season, and Zhengzhou cotton may bottom out again after a short - term rebound. The core contradiction lies in the time when downstream demand recession spreads to the upstream [2] - Zhengzhou sugar generally follows the trend of raw sugar. The 2025/2026 global sugar supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus, and Zhengzhou sugar may continue to weaken in the medium - to - long term [4][5] - Macro - level positive factors drive the pulp price to recover from the bottom, but the tariff uncertainty is still strong. As the off - season approaches and the terminal demand outlook is pessimistic, the pulp price may continue to oscillate at a low level [7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,495 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton (+1.01%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,485 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,620 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan/ton. As of the end of May, the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a decrease of 693,900 tons (-16.71%) from the previous month and 315,400 tons (-8.36%) lower than the same period last year [1] Market Analysis - Macroscopically, the Sino - US trade negotiations sent positive signals, boosting the domestic cotton price. The US cotton sowing progress is slow, but the rainfall in the main producing areas has improved the drought. The international cotton price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Domestically, the commercial cotton inventory is accelerating destocking, but the new - year planting area is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, with insufficient support on the demand side [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5734 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.02%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6080 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. In the 2024/2025 sugar - crushing season in Guangxi, the cumulative sugar production was 6.465 million tons, an increase of 283,600 tons year - on - year. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales were 4.6453 million tons, an increase of 537,100 tons year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar production in the first half of May decreased year - on - year, but the sugar - making ratio rebounded. The production in India and Thailand in the new season is expected to increase, and the global sugar supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus. Domestically, the sugar sales and production data are good, but the long - term import pressure is increasing, and Zhengzhou sugar may follow the raw sugar to weaken [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5394 yuan/ton, up 114 yuan/ton (+2.16%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6160 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5325 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price was generally stable, with some fluctuations [5] Market Analysis - The macro - level sentiment improved, boosting the pulp market. The Arauco long - term contract price has been continuously lowered, and the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic port inventory is at a high level, and the downstream demand is weak. The pulp price is difficult to rise in the short term [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as "Neutral" [2][5][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, although the market sentiment has improved due to the substantial progress in Sino-US negotiations, the actual tariff on textile and clothing exports to the US remains high, and there are many uncertainties. The global cotton supply and demand balance sheet needs adjustment, and the domestic cotton industry is in the off - season with limited upside potential for cotton prices [1][2] - For sugar, the international market expects a surplus in the 25/26 sugar season. The domestic sugar price is supported in the short - term but faces pressure from potential future imports. The overall trend of Zhengzhou sugar follows the international sugar price [3][4][5] - For pulp, the improvement in macro - sentiment boosts pulp prices, but the off - season is approaching, and the terminal demand is pessimistic. The pulp price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,430 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,539 yuan/ton, a change of + 52 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,621 yuan/ton, a change of + 54 yuan/ton [1] - Retail data: In April 2025, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 108.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.26%. From January to April, the cumulative retail sales were 493.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [1] Market Analysis - Macro: Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, but the actual tariff on textile and clothing exports to the US is still high, and there is tariff policy uncertainty. - International: USDA has adjusted the 25/26 global cotton supply and demand balance sheet, but there are many uncertainties. The drought in the US cotton - producing areas has improved. - Domestic: The cotton - planting area in the new year is stable with a slight increase. The inventory is being depleted, and the demand has not dropped sharply, but it is in the off - season, and the negative impact of tariffs has not been fully reflected [1] Strategy - The short - term cotton price is supported by improved market sentiment but has limited upside potential due to the off - season and high tariffs [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5855 yuan/ton, a change of - 8 yuan/ton (- 0.14%) from the previous day. - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6160 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5980 yuan/ton, a change of + 10 yuan/ton [3] - Shipping data: As of the week of May 21, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased, and the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 372,100 tons (10.57%) compared to the previous week [3] Market Analysis - International: Although the sugar production in the central - southern part of Brazil in the second half of April was lower than expected, international institutions are optimistic about the supply in the 25/26 season, and the sugar price is under pressure. - Domestic: The domestic sugar sales data are positive, and the short - term import volume is limited, but the long - term import pressure may increase, and the sugar price may follow the international price [4][5] Strategy - The overall trend of Zhengzhou sugar follows the international sugar price, and attention should be paid to the Brazilian sugar production and domestic import rhythm [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract yesterday was 5426 yuan/ton, a change of + 6 yuan/ton (+ 0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6285 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5425 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton [5] - Market price: The spot price of imported wood pulp decreased slightly, and the high - price transactions of imported hardwood pulp were weak [6] Market Analysis - Macro: The "reciprocal tariff" policy is volatile, but the Sino - US negotiation progress has improved the market sentiment. - Supply: The foreign quotation has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level. - Demand: The European demand has not improved significantly, and the domestic downstream demand is weak and may continue to decline in the off - season [7] Strategy - The pulp price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation due to the improvement in macro - sentiment and the pessimistic terminal demand [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [4][7][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term cotton prices are supported by positive market sentiment due to Sino - US negotiations, but the rebound space is limited by the off - season, high retained tariffs, and expected high yields in the new year [3][4] - For sugar, Zhengzhou sugar generally follows the trend of raw sugar. The domestic sugar price is supported in the short term but faces upward pressure limitations from potential imports. Long - term sugar prices may decline if Brazil's high - yield expectations are met [7] - For pulp, although macro - sentiment improvement boosts pulp prices, the approaching off - season and weak terminal demand lead to a lack of industry drivers, and short - term pulp prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,440 yuan/ton yesterday, up 45 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,487 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,567 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton. As of May 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.834 million tons, a decrease of 318,600 tons (-7.67%) from the end of April [2] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price showed a strong oscillation yesterday. Macro: Sino - US negotiations made substantial progress, improving market sentiment, but the actual tariff on textile and clothing exports to the US remains high. International: USDA adjusted the 25/26 global cotton balance sheet, but there are many uncertainties. Domestic: The new - year cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase, current inventories are decreasing, but it's the off - season and the impact of retained tariffs has not been fully reflected [3] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Short - term price support comes from market sentiment, but the rebound space is limited [4] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5863 yuan/ton yesterday, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. As of May 19, Russia's beet planting area reached 1.1609 million hectares, with different progress and weather impacts in different regions [5] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price showed a strong performance yesterday. Raw sugar was first boosted by lower - than - expected production in Brazil's central - southern region but then pressured by expectations of global supply surplus. Zhengzhou sugar is supported by domestic sales data in the short term but faces import pressure in the long term [6][7] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended, with a focus on Brazil's production and domestic import rhythm [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2507 contract was 5420 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian needles was 5440 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The import pulp market had different price trends [7][8] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price closed higher with oscillation yesterday. Macro: The "reciprocal tariff" policy and Sino - US negotiations affected market sentiment. Supply: The foreign quotation decreased, and the inventory was at a high level. Demand: European and domestic demand was weak, and the off - season is approaching [8] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. Although macro - sentiment improves prices, the short - term price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation due to weak demand [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range due to the deterioration of the international trade environment, lack of domestic macro - level support, and weak overall industrial performance [2] - **Sugar**: Zheng sugar generally follows the trend of raw sugar. The short - term price is expected to be firm, and the medium - term price is under pressure due to the expected Brazilian harvest [4][5] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price has limited room for further decline as it has reached the support level, but there is no obvious upward driving force currently [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the cotton 2505 contract was 13,590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.37%) from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,605 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,864 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply - demand in Pakistan**: In the 2025/26 season, the sown area is expected to increase by about 5% to 2.1 million hectares, and the total output is expected to increase by 5.7% to about 1.2 million tons. Import demand may decrease by 10.8% to 1.07 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase by about 1% to 2.29 million tons. The ending inventory is expected to be 470,000 tons, down about 6.6% [1] Market Analysis - **International**: Last week, the main contract of US cotton rebounded due to reduced planting area intentions and a weaker US dollar, but the significant decline in export contract volume pressured further price increases. The short - term supply is loose, and demand may be further restricted by Sino - US trade frictions [1] - **Domestic**: In the 24/25 season, there was an unexpected increase in production in China, and the commercial inventory is at a historically high level. In the 25/26 season, the cotton planting area is expected to increase. The downstream demand has improved slightly in the recent two weeks but is still weak compared to the peak season [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the sugar 2505 contract was 6,129 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton (+0.89%) from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,990 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [3] - **Production in India**: As of March 31, 2025, in the 2024 - 25 season, 113 sugar mills were still operating, with a cumulative cane crushing volume of 265.326 million tons and a sugar production of 24.85 million tons. In the same period of the previous season, 204 mills were operating, with a cane crushing volume of 298.104 million tons and a sugar production of 30.25 million tons [3] Market Analysis - **Raw Sugar**: Although there are disputes over India's production, the impact has been mostly reflected in the market. Brazil has had less rainfall since February, but the actual impact of the drought is yet to be evaluated. The production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to increase strongly in the 25/26 season [4] - **Zheng Sugar**: Driven by the strong rebound of the external market, Zheng sugar once exceeded the previous high. Although the domestic production is increasing this season, the short - term import of sugar is limited, and the control policy of syrup and premixed powder is tightened. The domestic sugar price is expected to be firm in the short term [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the pulp 2505 contract was 5,638 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day [6] - **Spot**: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6] - **Market Price Trend**: The spot price of imported wood pulp showed a downward trend. The prices of some grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Guangdong decreased by 20 - 60 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - **Supply**: Some overseas pulp mills had maintenance in the first quarter, and the supply was expected to decrease, leading to continued increases in the US dollar quotes from February to March. However, the global shipment volume remained high, and the domestic pulp imports increased significantly from January to February, with a high expected arrival volume in March [7] - **Demand**: European demand did not improve significantly, and the European wood pulp port inventory remained at a historical high. The domestic downstream peak season was lackluster, and paper mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. There were concerns about the digestion of high - level port inventories [7]