市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约15285元/吨，较前一日变动+545元/吨，幅度+3.70%。现货方面， 3128B棉新疆到厂价15789元/吨，较前一日变动-31元/吨，现货基差CF05+504，较前一日变动-597； 3128B棉全国均价16070元/吨，较前一日变动-18元/吨，现货基差CF05+785，较前一日变动-594。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 李馨 棉花观点 近期市场资讯，当地时间2026年2月20日，美国最高法院作出关键裁定，明确特朗普政府此前依据《国 际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施的大规模全球关税缺乏合法授权，判定该举措属越权行为，要求相 关关税在切实可行的范围内尽快停止征收。面对裁定结果，特朗普随即宣布将依据《1974年贸易法》第 122条权限，对全球输美商品加征10%临时关税，随后短期内再度加码，将该临时关税税率上调至 15%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价强势上涨。国际方面，USDA展望论坛最新报告显示，2026/27年度全球棉花总产2526万 吨，同比减少3.2%；全球消费量2615万吨，同比增 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][5][6] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: The 25/26 global cotton supply-demand pattern is loose, with slow US cotton export sign - up. The short - term ICE US cotton will likely remain low - level volatile, and the medium - to - long - term downward space is limited. In China, the 25/26 cotton production increased significantly, and the supply - demand is expected to be balanced. There may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year. The short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trade within a range [1] - **Sugar**: The 25/26 global sugar market is in a surplus pattern, and the raw sugar futures price will maintain a weak low - level consolidation. The long - term supply has potential positive factors. Zhengzhou sugar will likely fluctuate before the Spring Festival, and the downward space of sugar prices is limited [4] - **Pulp**: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is expected to improve compared to last year. However, the overall improvement in the pulp fundamentals is limited, and the short - term pulp price may remain low - level consolidation [5][6] Group 3: Market News and Key Data - **Cotton**: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,745 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.61%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,756 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 16,029 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton. As of February 6, the new cotton sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 90%, 22 percentage points higher than the previous week and faster than last year's 80%. As of the end of January, the 2026 new cotton sales progress in Mato Grosso was about 55% [1] - **Sugar**: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.23%). The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi, was 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan, was 5,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. The US 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 9.41 million short tons, including 5.102 million short tons of beet sugar and 4.308 million short tons of cane sugar. The sugar inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 15.9% [3] - **Pulp**: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,236 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.65%). The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,310 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 4,885 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price mostly remained stable, with individual prices slightly loosening [5] Group 4: Market Analysis - **Cotton**: Internationally, the short - term ICE US cotton will remain low - level volatile, and the long - term downward space is limited. Domestically, the supply - demand is expected to be balanced in the medium - to - long - term, but there may be tight inventory at the end of the year. The key factors to watch are the reduction of planting area and the target price subsidy policy [1] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar futures price will maintain a weak low - level consolidation in the short - to - medium - term, and there are potential positive factors in the long - term. Zhengzhou sugar will likely fluctuate before the Spring Festival, and the downward space of sugar prices is limited [4] - **Pulp**: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure will ease, and the demand is expected to improve. However, the port inventory is high, and the overall improvement in fundamentals is limited [5] Group 5: Strategies - **Cotton**: In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trade within a range. Key factors to watch are the reduction of new - year planting area and the target price subsidy policy [1][2] - **Sugar**: Adopt an idea of bottom - building through fluctuations in the short - to - medium - term. Key factors to watch are the macro situation and domestic import sugar control policies [5] - **Pulp**: The short - term pulp price may remain low - level consolidation. The overall improvement in fundamentals is limited [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) have a neutral rating [2][5][8] Report Core View - The global cotton supply and demand pattern is still relatively loose in 2025/26, with weak terminal demand and low - level oscillation of ICE US cotton in the short - term. In China, there is a large increase in cotton production, and the supply and demand are expected to be balanced in the whole year. The cotton price is expected to oscillate in a range in the short - term [2] - The global sugar market is in a state of definite surplus in the 2025/26 season. The short - and medium - term surplus pattern restricts the rebound of sugar prices, but long - term prices should not be overly pessimistic. China's sugar market has a new - season production increase expectation, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short - and medium - term [4][5] - The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and China's import pressure may be alleviated. However, the domestic paper industry has over - capacity, and the pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short term [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,738 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,002 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [1] - As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative new - season seed cotton listing volume in Pakistan was about 859,000 tons, up 0.8% year - on - year. Domestic mills purchased about 773,000 tons, exported about 28,000 tons, and the unsold inventory in ginneries was about 59,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is loose in 2025/26. US cotton exports are weak, and ICE US cotton will oscillate at a low level in the short - term. In the long - term, the downward space is limited, but the upward drive is unclear [2] - Domestically, China's cotton production has increased significantly in 2025/26, and commercial inventories are rising seasonally. Traders are more willing to hold goods, and the basis is strengthening. Textile enterprises stocked up before the Spring Festival, but downstream new orders are insufficient, and industrial chain inventories are at a high level in the past five years. The whole - year supply and demand are expected to be balanced, but there may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - term, the expectation of a decrease in Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026/27 has been partially traded. The domestic demand support is limited, facing the pressure of internal - external price difference, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,210 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton (+0.83%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi, the cumulative crushed sugarcane was 33.4306 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0971 million tons; the output of blended sugar was 4.029 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.788 million tons [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global sugar market is in surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the short - term, the tight balance of trade flow in the first quarter supports the raw sugar price, but the trade flow will become looser after the second quarter. In the long - term, the price should not be overly pessimistic [4] - Domestically, the new - season production increase expectation remains unchanged, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The import profit outside the quota is at a high level, and the import pressure in the fourth quarter is high, but it will decrease in the off - season [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - and medium - term, the domestic sugar is in the inventory - accumulation stage. The decline space is limited, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out. 2026 may be the year to confirm the bottom, and attention should be paid to the changes in import - related policies [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,324 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton (+0.91%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,375 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,915 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was stable. The downstream pulp - purchasing enthusiasm was weak, and the market trading atmosphere was light [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas new production capacity has been limited in the past two years, and major overseas hardwood pulp mills announced production cuts and conversions in the second half of 2025. In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of hardwood pulp shipments may slow down. The demand in Europe is expected to improve, and China's import pressure may be alleviated [7] - Demand: In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity investment in finished paper, but the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper industry was in a state of over - capacity. The paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious, and the port inventory was at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is expanding, and there will be marginal incremental demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Neutral. The overall improvement of the pulp fundamentals is limited, the port inventory remains high, and the pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short - term [8]

郑棉窄幅波动，糖价低位盘整 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 农产品日报 | 2026-01-28 昨日郑棉期价震荡下跌。国际方面，1月USDA下调全球棉花产量和期末库存，数据调整偏多。不过目前全球供需 格局仍偏松，美棉出口签约进度整体仍偏慢，短期ICE美棉预计仍将承压。中长期看，美棉已处于低估值区间，进 一步下跌的空间预计不大，但向上驱动暂不明确，后续需关注新季供应题材。国内方面，25/26年度国内棉花延续 大幅增产，商业库存呈季节性回升。春节前贸易商和纺织企业积极备货，现货成交较好，但下游新增订单减少， 产业链成品库存处于偏高水平。从整个年度来看，下游纱锭产能扩张使得国内用棉量有所提升，新年度维持高产 量和高消费预期，进口维持低位的情况下，供需预计偏平衡，年度末仍有库存趋紧的可能性。 策略 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14565元/吨，较前一日变动-85元/吨，幅度-0.58%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15633元/吨，较前一日变动-84元/吨，现货基差CF05+1068，较前一日变动+1；3128B棉全国均价15953元/吨， 较前一日变动-42元/吨，现货基差CF05+1388，较前一日变 ...

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][5][6] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The cotton market is in a narrow - range oscillation, waiting for policy drivers. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is still loose in the short - term, but the US cotton is in a low - valuation range. The domestic cotton market has increased production and consumption, with a possible tight inventory at the end of the year [1][2] - The sugar market has a short - term tight trade flow in the first quarter, which may support the price. In the second quarter, the supply will be more abundant. In the long - term, the sugar price is not overly pessimistic. The domestic sugar is in the inventory accumulation stage with limited downward space [3][4] - The pulp market has continuous overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, but the domestic fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [5][6] Group 3: Cotton Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (-0.31%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,717 yuan/ton, up 122 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,995 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton [1] - In December 2025, the export volume of cotton yarn was 25,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.78%. The export amount was 98 million US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 2.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.42%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export volume of cotton yarn was 332,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.48%, and the export amount was 1.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.23% [1] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated and closed down. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is still loose in the short - term, and the US cotton export signing progress is slow. In the long - term, the US cotton is in a low - valuation range. The domestic cotton production has increased significantly, and the commercial inventory has increased seasonally. Although the downstream yarn spindle capacity has expanded, the new orders have decreased, and the finished product inventory is at a relatively high level [2] Strategy - The short - term pre - holiday stocking still supports the cotton price, but the domestic market faces downstream transmission pressure and internal - external price difference pressure. It is expected to oscillate strongly. The medium - and long - term trend depends on the implementation of target price policy and area - reduction policy [3] Group 4: Sugar Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,172 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,165 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3] - As of January 24, 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 41 sugar mills in Punjab, Pakistan were in operation, with a cumulative crushing of 24.89 million tons of sugarcane and a production of 2.329 million tons of refined sugar, an increase of 266,000 tons compared with the same period of the previous season. The paid sugarcane payment reached 92.57% of the total payable amount, higher than 87.81% in the same period of the previous season [3] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price was in a narrow - range consolidation. The Brazilian sugar inventory is decreasing, and the short - term export in the Northern Hemisphere is restricted, which may support the raw sugar price in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the supply will be more abundant. In the long - term, the sugar price is not overly pessimistic. The domestic sugar is in the inventory accumulation stage with limited downward space [4] Strategy - The short - and medium - term sugar price should be treated with an oscillation - bottoming - building idea, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [3] Group 5: Pulp Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,374 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.44%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,400 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,975 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [5] - The import pulp spot market price showed a downward trend. The prices of some grades in different regions decreased to varying degrees [5] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price was weakly consolidated. The overseas pulp mills' shutdown and maintenance news and the increase in foreign quotes promoted the pulp price rebound, but the global wood pulp inventory is still accumulating. The European port pulp inventory decreased in November, but the domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high [6] Strategy - Although there are continuous overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, the domestic fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][6][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - For cotton, in the short - term, the domestic market faces downstream and price - difference pressures with a risk of high - level correction. In the long - term, the upward space depends on policy implementation. The global market has short - term supply pressure and weak consumption, while the US cotton is in a low - valuation range [2] - For sugar, the 2025/26 global sugar market is in surplus. In the short - term, the trade flow is in a tight balance, and in the long - term, the market should not be overly pessimistic. The domestic market has increasing supply and inventory pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][6] - For pulp, overseas supply is disrupted, and there is a pre - Spring Festival restocking expectation. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and inventory digestion [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,675 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton (- 0.91%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,727 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,972 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1] - India's 2025/26 cotton production increased by 130,000 tons, domestic demand by 170,000 tons, and exports decreased by 50,000 tons compared to last month's assessment. Compared with the previous year, the ending inventory increased by 800,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is on the market, with high supply pressure and weak consumption. The US cotton export is slow, and it is under short - term pressure. Domestically, the 2025/26 cotton production increased, the commercial inventory rose seasonally, the downstream orders declined, and the inventory increased. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possible inventory shortage at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. Be vigilant against high - level correction in the short term, and the long - term upward space depends on policy implementation [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,280 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (- 0.36%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,215 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [2] - As of January 12, 2026, Punjab, India had crushed over 18.647 million tons of sugarcane, producing 1.712 million tons of sugar [3] Market Analysis - The global 2025/26 sugar market is in surplus. In the short term, the trade flow is in a tight balance, and in the long term, the market should not be overly pessimistic. Domestically, sugar production is increasing, the supply is growing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. The price may oscillate at the bottom in the short - to - medium term, with limited downward space [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,436 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,515 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,090 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price turned weak. The price of imported softwood pulp in some markets decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and the price of imported hardwood pulp in some markets decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills had shutdown and maintenance. Demand: European port inventory decreased, and domestic port inventory was high but decreased slightly in December. The expanding paper production capacity will increase the demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, and the upward height depends on demand and inventory [8]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [1] - Sugar: Neutral [4] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The overall pattern of domestic and foreign cotton prices is divided, with a strong domestic and weak foreign situation. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the demand side of domestic cotton is weakening marginally. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to be bullish [1] - Sugar: The global sugar market is in a state of surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar is in a situation of increasing supply and the price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [3][4] - Pulp: Overseas supply is disturbed, and domestic demand is expected to recover moderately in the short - term. The price will fluctuate and be slightly strong, but the upward height depends on demand and inventory digestion [7] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,435 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,385 yuan/ton, up 267 yuan/ton. From December 19th to 25th, the US graded and inspected 129,200 tons of 2025/26 cotton, and 82.1% met the ICE cotton delivery requirements [1] - Market Analysis: The domestic and foreign cotton price trends are divided. Internationally, the US cotton inventory pressure increases, and the global textile consumption is weak. Domestically, cotton production increases, and the demand side is marginally weakening [1] - Strategy: Neutral to bullish. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to rise, but short - term high - level corrections should be vigilant [1] Sugar - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5253 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton. As of December 27, 2025/26, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 1.2793 million tons, down 15.83% year - on - year [2] - Market Analysis: The global sugar market is in surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high [3][4] - Strategy: Neutral. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [4] Pulp - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5510 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Market Analysis: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, and the European demand has improved. The domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is high but showing a downward trend [6] - Strategy: Neutral. The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate and be slightly strong, depending on demand and inventory digestion [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - Cotton: The 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease, and the ending stocks increase slightly. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, while in the long - term, it has limited downward space. In China, the supply is abundant in the short - term, but the downstream demand is weak. However, the improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. - Sugar: The 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. Although the short - term factors support the rebound of raw sugar prices, the upside space is limited. Zhengzhou sugar has sufficient short - term supply, but its low valuation restricts the further decline [5]. - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. European port pulp inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal demand is still insufficient. However, the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize gradually [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 13,960 yuan/ton yesterday, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.25%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,978 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the national average price was 15,139 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's cotton imports were 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons (34.4%) and a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (9.4%). From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64.0% [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment of global cotton supply - demand data this month is small. The US cotton production increases slightly, and there is greater inventory pressure. The short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the long - term upward driver is not clear. - Domestic: China's cotton production in the 25/26 season continues to increase. The short - term supply is abundant, but the downstream demand is weak. The improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. Strategy Be neutral to bullish, focus on the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,102 yuan/ton yesterday, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.72%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's sugar imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. As of the end of November in the 25/26 season, the imports were 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's sugarcane harvest is accelerating, India's exports are difficult to increase in the short - term, and Thailand's sugarcane crushing is delayed. Although the short - term raw sugar price rebounds, the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern restricts its upside space. - Zhengzhou sugar: Guangxi sugar mills are starting production, with short - term sufficient supply. However, the low valuation restricts its downward space [5]. Strategy Be neutral to bearish. Pay attention to the impact of capital on the market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,500 yuan/ton yesterday, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,095 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total inventory of pulp in 1 region and 8 ports decreased by 1.39% week - on - week, and the decline narrowed by 3.50 percentage points [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, such as Domtar closing the Crofton paper mill and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill having a temporary shutdown. - Demand: The European port pulp inventory in October decreased, showing some improvement in demand. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, but the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize [7]. Strategy Be neutral. Although the pulp price has risen strongly recently, the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand situation restricts its upside space. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue range - bound oscillations. In the long - term, after seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically due to increased domestic cotton consumption and low expected imports [3] - For sugar, the fundamental driving force is downward, but the current low valuation and sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar. However, the possibility of new lows cannot be ruled out [6] - For pulp, recent pulp futures prices have risen strongly due to the digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions. But the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton (+0.58%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,835 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 975, down 75 from the previous day; the national average price was 15,013 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1153, down 71 from the previous day [1] - In Pakistan, the demand of local yarn mills is weak, and the lint price is range - bound. The ginning mills are reluctant to sell high - grade inventory, and some low - grade resources offer opportunities for yarn mills to replenish stocks. The yarn mills face heavy operating pressure and squeezed profits. The 2025/26 annual spot price of the Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) on the 10th was stable at 15,500 rupees/mound [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere brings short - term supply pressure, and weak global textile consumption will keep ICE US cotton under pressure. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range with limited downward space but unclear upward drivers. Domestically, the 2025/26 domestic cotton is expected to increase in production. With the harvest nearing completion in Xinjiang, the cotton output forecast has risen again. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and Zhengzhou cotton will be suppressed by hedging orders. The downstream demand is weak in the off - season, but improved spinning profits and manageable finished - product inventory limit the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate within a range. In the long - term, due to expanded downstream production capacity and increased domestic cotton consumption, and low expected imports, the supply - demand situation in the new year is not expected to be too loose. Pay attention to the changes in the cotton target price policy next year [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,245 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton (-1.56%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 + 125, up 83 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,340 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of SR05 + 95, up 83 from the previous day [4] - According to Williams, as of the week of December 10, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 53 to 44. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5131 million tons, down 17.14% from the previous week. The quantity of high - grade raw sugar (VHP) decreased by 21.3%, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be exported at Santos Port decreased by 8.97%, and at Paranaguá Port decreased by 47.77% [4] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, the global bumper harvest suppresses the market, but the negative factors are mostly reflected in the price. There is limited short - term downward space, and no sign of a reversal in the short - to - medium term. For Zhengzhou sugar, domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third year. The sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing, and the supply is seasonally increasing. The import profit from Brazil is high, and the import volume from July to October was large. The control of syrup has tightened, but the import reduction in October was lower than expected [5] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation and sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar. Attention should be paid to the impact of capital on the market [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,586 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton (+2.76%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,590 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 + 4, down 60 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (U - needle and B - needle) was 5,115 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 - 471, down 40 from the previous day [6] - The imported wood pulp spot market was strong. The futures price rose, and traders raised prices to improve profits. The downstream procurement was rational, and the trading volume was limited. The prices of imported softwood pulp in some regions rose by 50 - 120 yuan/ton, and those of imported hardwood pulp rose by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The trading of imported natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp was flat, and the prices were stable [7] Market Analysis - On the supply side, there are continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdowns and overhauls. Domtar permanently closed the Crofton paper mill with an annual production of 380,000 tons of Lion brand bleached softwood pulp, and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill with a capacity of 650,000 tons of softwood pulp will be shut down temporarily. On the demand side, the October European port wood pulp inventory decreased, indicating improved demand. In China, although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity, the terminal demand is insufficient, the paper mills' operating rate is low, and the inventory in domestic ports is at a historical high [8] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The recent strong rise in pulp futures prices is due to the digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions. However, the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases. Attention should be paid to the impact of the remaining B - needle warehouse receipts on the market [9]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue range - bound. In the long - term, with increased domestic cotton consumption and low expected imports, cotton prices are optimistic after seasonal pressure. Attention should be paid to the target price policy for next year's cotton [3] - **Sugar**: The fundamental driving force is downward, but the current valuation is low. At the beginning of the sugar - making season, sugar mills have the intention to support prices. The short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the impact of capital on the market should be watched [6] - **Pulp**: Due to the digestion of previous negative factors, the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently, but the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit its upward space. The impact of the remaining Russian needle warehouse receipts on the market should be noted [9] Group 3: Summary of Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton contract 2601 yesterday was 13,780 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,830 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,004 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The USDA's December report shows a slight decrease in global cotton production and consumption in the 2025/26 season, and a slight increase in ending inventory [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere has brought supply pressure, and global textile consumption is weak, so ICE US cotton is under pressure in the short - term. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range. Domestically, cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase. With the end of cotton harvesting in Xinjiang, supply is abundant in the short - term. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved and inventory pressure is acceptable [2] Group 4: Summary of Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar contract 2601 yesterday was 5328 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.28%). Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5370 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5340 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. As of now, 64 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production in the 2025/26 season, 7 less than the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - The global sugar harvest has suppressed the raw sugar market, but the short - term decline is limited. There is no sign of a reversal. Domestically, sugar production is expected to increase for the third year. Sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, and supply is increasing seasonally. The import profit from Brazil is high, and the supply pressure is high [4] Group 5: Summary of Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp contract 2605 yesterday was 5436 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.93%). Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5005 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market is stable, with individual price fluctuations [7] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills are shutting down for maintenance. Domtar has permanently closed a paper mill, and Finnforest has temporarily shut down a pulp mill. Demand: European port pulp inventories have decreased in October, but in China, terminal demand is insufficient, paper mills' operating rates are low, and port inventories are at a historical high [8]