1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: Although the global supply - demand pattern for cotton this year is generally loose, the US cotton is in the low - valuation range, and the global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. In China, cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, but consumption growth is obvious due to expanded yarn spindle capacity. The inventory is expected to be tight at the end of the year, and the cotton price center is expected to rise in the medium and long term [3] - **Sugar**: Internationally, the rising oil price due to the escalating Middle - East situation has driven the rebound of raw sugar futures prices, but the global sugar fundamentals have not changed substantially. Domestically, the sugar harvest progress is significantly delayed, and the sugar is still in the inventory accumulation stage with high industrial inventory [5] - **Pulp**: The global wood pulp supply pressure in 2026 is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of broad - leaf pulp shipments may slow down. In China, the terminal demand for pulp is insufficient, and the port inventory remains high, but the overall demand is expected to improve compared to last year [9] 3. Summary of Each Commodity According to the Catalog Cotton Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,210 yuan/ton, a change of - 205 yuan/ton (- 1.33%) from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,732 yuan/ton, a change of + 77 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,897 yuan/ton, a change of + 76 yuan/ton [1] - **Imports**: In 2026, January's cotton imports were 210,000 tons (up 18.0% month - on - month and 38.5% year - on - year), and February's were 170,000 tons (down 19.1% month - on - month and up 44.1% year - on - year). The cumulative imports from January to February were 370,000 tons, a 41.0% year - on - year increase [2] Market Analysis - The issuance of 300,000 tons of processing trade quotas is short - term positive for ICE US cotton and has limited inhibitory effect on Zhengzhou cotton, which is conducive to narrowing the internal - external price difference. The medium - and long - term prospects for US cotton are positive, and the medium - and long - term cotton price center in China is expected to rise [3] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term upward trend may be suppressed by the internal - external price difference, and attention should be paid to the reduction of planting area and potential reserve - selling policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,343 yuan/ton, a change of - 63 yuan/ton (- 1.17%) from the previous day [4] - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,420 yuan/ton, a change of - 40 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,310 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton [4] - **Imports**: In January and February 2026, sugar imports were 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 217,000 tons and 223,900 tons. The cumulative imports from January to February were 520,000 tons, a 440,900 - ton increase year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The international raw sugar futures price has rebounded due to rising oil prices, but the global sugar fundamentals have not changed. Domestically, the sugar harvest is delayed, and the sugar is in the inventory accumulation stage with high industrial inventory [5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The previous sugar price increase was mainly driven by geopolitical conflicts and technical rebounds, with limited fundamental improvement. In the short term, it should be treated with a volatile mindset [6][7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,040 yuan/ton, a change of - 48 yuan/ton (- 0.94%) from the previous day [8] - **Spot**: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,065 yuan/ton, a change of - 75 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton [8] - **Market Trend**: The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market continued to weaken, with different price trends for different types of pulp [8] Market Analysis - The global wood pulp supply pressure in 2026 is expected to weaken. In China, the terminal demand for pulp is insufficient, and the port inventory remains high, but the overall demand is expected to improve compared to last year [9] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp fundamentals are weak, and the pulp price may remain in low - level consolidation in the short term [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [1][3][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: The international cotton market is affected by the escalation of the Middle - East conflict, with short - term adjustment and risk - aversion pressure. The US cotton lacks a continuous upward drive in the short term but has limited further downside potential in the long run. The 26/27 global cotton market supply - demand pattern may tighten. In China, the 25/26 cotton production increased significantly, but consumption also rose due to expanded downstream spindle capacity. The inventory may be tight at the end of the year, and there is a production - reduction expectation for new crops in 26/27, so the long - term cotton price center may move up [1] - **Sugar**: The sharp escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict provides indirect support for sugar prices through rising energy prices. However, the global sugar market fundamentals are still bearish. Although India's estimated production has been revised down, Brazil and Thailand's production remains stable. The 2 - 3 quarter trade flow is expected to be loose. In China, domestic sugar production is expected to increase this year, and the industrial inventory has reached a high level [2] - **Pulp**: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of broad - leaf pulp shipments may slow down. The domestic port inventory of pulp remains at a historical high due to insufficient terminal demand. However, the demand for pulp is expected to improve marginally in 2026 as paper production capacity expands [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,285 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (- 0.07%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,465 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 16,632 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. From February 27 to March 5, the US 2025/26 cotton grading inspection was 0.54 million tons, with 78.8% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements [1] - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose and then fell. Internationally, the Middle - East conflict has brought short - term adjustment and risk - aversion pressure. The US cotton lacks a continuous upward drive in the short term but has limited further downside potential in the long run. Domestically, the 25/26 cotton production increased significantly, but consumption also rose due to expanded downstream spindle capacity. The inventory may be tight at the end of the year, and there is a production - reduction expectation for new crops in 26/27 [1] - **Strategy**: The short - term upward trend may be suppressed by the domestic - foreign price difference. The focus should be on the reduction range of the new - year planting area and the release of the target price subsidy policy [1] Sugar - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5436 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton (+ 1.21%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5520 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5375 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton. Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of March were 444,608.35 tons, with a daily average export volume 8% lower than that of the whole month of March last year [2] - **Market Analysis**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rose and then fell. The sharp escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict provides indirect support for sugar prices through rising energy prices. However, the global sugar market fundamentals are still bearish. Although India's estimated production has been revised down, Brazil and Thailand's production remains stable. The 2 - 3 quarter trade flow is expected to be loose. In China, domestic sugar production is expected to increase this year, and the industrial inventory has reached a high level [2] - **Strategy**: The fundamental situation has not improved substantially. The current rise in the futures price is mainly driven by macro - disturbances and capital. The expectation of tightened import licenses provides some support. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical conflicts [3][4] Pulp - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5300 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (- 0.41%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5325 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4910 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market prices were mostly stable, with some continuing to rise [5] - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures price fluctuated and closed down. In terms of supply, the overseas new production capacity has been limited in recent years, and major overseas broad - leaf pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. In terms of demand, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation in China in recent years, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory remains at a high level. However, the demand for pulp is expected to improve marginally in 2026 as paper production capacity expands [6] - **Strategy**: The pulp fundamentals remain weak, and the port inventory is difficult to reduce. The short - term pulp price may remain in a low - level consolidation [6]

Cotton Market Insights - The cotton futures contract closed at 15,285 CNY/ton, an increase of 545 CNY/ton or 3.70% from the previous day [2][14] - The spot price for 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,789 CNY/ton, down by 31 CNY/ton, while the national average was 16,070 CNY/ton, down by 18 CNY/ton [2][14] - The USDA report forecasts a global cotton production of 25.26 million tons for the 2026/27 season, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year, with consumption expected to rise by 1.2% to 26.15 million tons [3][15] Market Analysis - The cotton market is expected to tighten due to reduced global supply and increased demand, with the USDA's outlook being optimistic [3][15] - Domestic textile markets are anticipated to gradually recover as operations resume, contributing to higher cotton consumption [3][15] - The planting area for Xinjiang cotton is projected to decrease, which may lead to a long-term upward shift in cotton prices [4][15] Strategy - The market outlook is neutral, with expectations of a strong performance in the cotton market during the traditional peak season, although short-term price increases may face pressure from price differentials [5][16] Sugar Market Insights - The sugar futures contract closed at 5,229 CNY/ton, an increase of 18 CNY/ton or 0.35% from the previous day [6][17] - Thailand's sugar production for the 2025/26 season is projected to decrease by 4.83% year-on-year, with a total sugar production of 683.56 million tons [6][17] Market Analysis - The sugar market is currently experiencing a surplus, which is expected to continue to suppress prices in the short to medium term [7][18] - Domestic sugar production is expected to increase, but sales data indicates lower-than-expected pre-holiday stockpiling [7][18] Strategy - The outlook for sugar is neutral, with attention needed on domestic production pressures and potential changes in import policies [8][19] Pulp Market Insights - The pulp futures contract closed at 5,340 CNY/ton, an increase of 80 CNY/ton or 1.52% from the previous day [9][20] - The market for imported wood pulp is showing signs of strength, although actual trading activity remains limited [10][21] Market Analysis - Global wood pulp supply pressures are expected to ease due to reduced new capacity and production cuts from major suppliers [11][22] - Despite an increase in paper production capacity, demand remains weak, leading to high inventory levels at domestic ports [11][22] Strategy - The market outlook for pulp is neutral, with prices likely to remain stable in the short term due to high inventory levels [12][22]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][5][6] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: The 25/26 global cotton supply-demand pattern is loose, with slow US cotton export sign - up. The short - term ICE US cotton will likely remain low - level volatile, and the medium - to - long - term downward space is limited. In China, the 25/26 cotton production increased significantly, and the supply - demand is expected to be balanced. There may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year. The short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trade within a range [1] - **Sugar**: The 25/26 global sugar market is in a surplus pattern, and the raw sugar futures price will maintain a weak low - level consolidation. The long - term supply has potential positive factors. Zhengzhou sugar will likely fluctuate before the Spring Festival, and the downward space of sugar prices is limited [4] - **Pulp**: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is expected to improve compared to last year. However, the overall improvement in the pulp fundamentals is limited, and the short - term pulp price may remain low - level consolidation [5][6] Group 3: Market News and Key Data - **Cotton**: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,745 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.61%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,756 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 16,029 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton. As of February 6, the new cotton sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 90%, 22 percentage points higher than the previous week and faster than last year's 80%. As of the end of January, the 2026 new cotton sales progress in Mato Grosso was about 55% [1] - **Sugar**: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.23%). The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi, was 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan, was 5,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. The US 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 9.41 million short tons, including 5.102 million short tons of beet sugar and 4.308 million short tons of cane sugar. The sugar inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 15.9% [3] - **Pulp**: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,236 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.65%). The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,310 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 4,885 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price mostly remained stable, with individual prices slightly loosening [5] Group 4: Market Analysis - **Cotton**: Internationally, the short - term ICE US cotton will remain low - level volatile, and the long - term downward space is limited. Domestically, the supply - demand is expected to be balanced in the medium - to - long - term, but there may be tight inventory at the end of the year. The key factors to watch are the reduction of planting area and the target price subsidy policy [1] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar futures price will maintain a weak low - level consolidation in the short - to - medium - term, and there are potential positive factors in the long - term. Zhengzhou sugar will likely fluctuate before the Spring Festival, and the downward space of sugar prices is limited [4] - **Pulp**: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure will ease, and the demand is expected to improve. However, the port inventory is high, and the overall improvement in fundamentals is limited [5] Group 5: Strategies - **Cotton**: In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trade within a range. Key factors to watch are the reduction of new - year planting area and the target price subsidy policy [1][2] - **Sugar**: Adopt an idea of bottom - building through fluctuations in the short - to - medium - term. Key factors to watch are the macro situation and domestic import sugar control policies [5] - **Pulp**: The short - term pulp price may remain low - level consolidation. The overall improvement in fundamentals is limited [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) have a neutral rating [2][5][8] Report Core View - The global cotton supply and demand pattern is still relatively loose in 2025/26, with weak terminal demand and low - level oscillation of ICE US cotton in the short - term. In China, there is a large increase in cotton production, and the supply and demand are expected to be balanced in the whole year. The cotton price is expected to oscillate in a range in the short - term [2] - The global sugar market is in a state of definite surplus in the 2025/26 season. The short - and medium - term surplus pattern restricts the rebound of sugar prices, but long - term prices should not be overly pessimistic. China's sugar market has a new - season production increase expectation, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short - and medium - term [4][5] - The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and China's import pressure may be alleviated. However, the domestic paper industry has over - capacity, and the pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short term [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,738 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,002 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [1] - As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative new - season seed cotton listing volume in Pakistan was about 859,000 tons, up 0.8% year - on - year. Domestic mills purchased about 773,000 tons, exported about 28,000 tons, and the unsold inventory in ginneries was about 59,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is loose in 2025/26. US cotton exports are weak, and ICE US cotton will oscillate at a low level in the short - term. In the long - term, the downward space is limited, but the upward drive is unclear [2] - Domestically, China's cotton production has increased significantly in 2025/26, and commercial inventories are rising seasonally. Traders are more willing to hold goods, and the basis is strengthening. Textile enterprises stocked up before the Spring Festival, but downstream new orders are insufficient, and industrial chain inventories are at a high level in the past five years. The whole - year supply and demand are expected to be balanced, but there may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - term, the expectation of a decrease in Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026/27 has been partially traded. The domestic demand support is limited, facing the pressure of internal - external price difference, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,210 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton (+0.83%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi, the cumulative crushed sugarcane was 33.4306 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0971 million tons; the output of blended sugar was 4.029 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.788 million tons [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global sugar market is in surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the short - term, the tight balance of trade flow in the first quarter supports the raw sugar price, but the trade flow will become looser after the second quarter. In the long - term, the price should not be overly pessimistic [4] - Domestically, the new - season production increase expectation remains unchanged, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The import profit outside the quota is at a high level, and the import pressure in the fourth quarter is high, but it will decrease in the off - season [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - and medium - term, the domestic sugar is in the inventory - accumulation stage. The decline space is limited, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out. 2026 may be the year to confirm the bottom, and attention should be paid to the changes in import - related policies [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,324 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton (+0.91%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,375 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,915 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was stable. The downstream pulp - purchasing enthusiasm was weak, and the market trading atmosphere was light [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas new production capacity has been limited in the past two years, and major overseas hardwood pulp mills announced production cuts and conversions in the second half of 2025. In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of hardwood pulp shipments may slow down. The demand in Europe is expected to improve, and China's import pressure may be alleviated [7] - Demand: In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity investment in finished paper, but the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper industry was in a state of over - capacity. The paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious, and the port inventory was at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is expanding, and there will be marginal incremental demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Neutral. The overall improvement of the pulp fundamentals is limited, the port inventory remains high, and the pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short - term [8]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as "Neutral" [3][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market shows a complex situation with short - term support from pre - holiday stocking but facing downstream and price - difference pressures, and long - term trends depend on policy implementation; the sugar market is expected to bottom - out with short - to - medium - term oscillations; the pulp market will continue to oscillate at a low level due to insufficient domestic fundamental improvements [3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,565 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton (-0.58%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,633 yuan/ton, down 84 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,953 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the yarn output of large - scale enterprises was 2.132 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% and a month - on - month increase of 4.56%; the cloth output was 3.01 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% and a month - on - month increase of 7.12% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA in January lowered the global cotton output and ending stocks, but the global supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the US cotton export signing progress is slow. Domestically, the 25/26 cotton year has a large increase in production, and commercial inventories are seasonally rising. Although pre - holiday stocking led to good spot transactions, downstream new orders decreased, and finished product inventories were high. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pre - holiday stocking supports cotton prices in the short term, but the domestic market faces downstream and price - difference pressures. The long - term trend depends on the implementation of policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,168 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,155 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January, with a daily average of 108,600 tons [3] Market Analysis - The Brazilian sugar inventory is decreasing, and the short - term export in the Northern Hemisphere is limited, which supports the raw sugar price in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the supply from Brazil and Thailand will increase, and the market is expected to be loose. In the long term, the market expects the sugar - making ratio in Brazil to decline in the 26/27 season, and the planting area in Thailand may shrink. In the domestic market, Guangxi sugar mills are in the peak crushing period, and the import pressure in the fourth quarter remains high, but the syrup import has decreased significantly. The domestic sugar is in the inventory accumulation stage, with limited downward space [4] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Consider the short - to - medium - term sugar price to be in the process of bottom - out oscillation, and pay attention to macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,342 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price was mostly stable, with a few weakening [6] Market Analysis - The supply side was affected by overseas pulp mill shutdown and maintenance and price increases, but the global wood pulp inventory is still increasing. The demand side shows marginal improvement in Europe in November, but the domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Although there are continuous overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, the domestic fundamentals have not improved enough, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level in the short term [7]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][5][6] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The cotton market is in a narrow - range oscillation, waiting for policy drivers. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is still loose in the short - term, but the US cotton is in a low - valuation range. The domestic cotton market has increased production and consumption, with a possible tight inventory at the end of the year [1][2] - The sugar market has a short - term tight trade flow in the first quarter, which may support the price. In the second quarter, the supply will be more abundant. In the long - term, the sugar price is not overly pessimistic. The domestic sugar is in the inventory accumulation stage with limited downward space [3][4] - The pulp market has continuous overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, but the domestic fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [5][6] Group 3: Cotton Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,650 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton (-0.31%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,717 yuan/ton, up 122 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,995 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton [1] - In December 2025, the export volume of cotton yarn was 25,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.33% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.78%. The export amount was 98 million US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 2.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.42%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export volume of cotton yarn was 332,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.48%, and the export amount was 1.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.23% [1] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated and closed down. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is still loose in the short - term, and the US cotton export signing progress is slow. In the long - term, the US cotton is in a low - valuation range. The domestic cotton production has increased significantly, and the commercial inventory has increased seasonally. Although the downstream yarn spindle capacity has expanded, the new orders have decreased, and the finished product inventory is at a relatively high level [2] Strategy - The short - term pre - holiday stocking still supports the cotton price, but the domestic market faces downstream transmission pressure and internal - external price difference pressure. It is expected to oscillate strongly. The medium - and long - term trend depends on the implementation of target price policy and area - reduction policy [3] Group 4: Sugar Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,172 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,165 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3] - As of January 24, 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 41 sugar mills in Punjab, Pakistan were in operation, with a cumulative crushing of 24.89 million tons of sugarcane and a production of 2.329 million tons of refined sugar, an increase of 266,000 tons compared with the same period of the previous season. The paid sugarcane payment reached 92.57% of the total payable amount, higher than 87.81% in the same period of the previous season [3] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price was in a narrow - range consolidation. The Brazilian sugar inventory is decreasing, and the short - term export in the Northern Hemisphere is restricted, which may support the raw sugar price in the first quarter. In the second quarter, the supply will be more abundant. In the long - term, the sugar price is not overly pessimistic. The domestic sugar is in the inventory accumulation stage with limited downward space [4] Strategy - The short - and medium - term sugar price should be treated with an oscillation - bottoming - building idea, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [3] Group 5: Pulp Summary Market News and Important Data - The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,374 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.44%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,400 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,975 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [5] - The import pulp spot market price showed a downward trend. The prices of some grades in different regions decreased to varying degrees [5] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price was weakly consolidated. The overseas pulp mills' shutdown and maintenance news and the increase in foreign quotes promoted the pulp price rebound, but the global wood pulp inventory is still accumulating. The European port pulp inventory decreased in November, but the domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high [6] Strategy - Although there are continuous overseas supply disturbances and rising foreign quotes, the domestic fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][6][8] Group 2: Report Core Views - For cotton, in the short - term, the domestic market faces downstream and price - difference pressures with a risk of high - level correction. In the long - term, the upward space depends on policy implementation. The global market has short - term supply pressure and weak consumption, while the US cotton is in a low - valuation range [2] - For sugar, the 2025/26 global sugar market is in surplus. In the short - term, the trade flow is in a tight balance, and in the long - term, the market should not be overly pessimistic. The domestic market has increasing supply and inventory pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][6] - For pulp, overseas supply is disrupted, and there is a pre - Spring Festival restocking expectation. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward height depends on demand improvement and inventory digestion [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,675 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton (- 0.91%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,727 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,972 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton [1] - India's 2025/26 cotton production increased by 130,000 tons, domestic demand by 170,000 tons, and exports decreased by 50,000 tons compared to last month's assessment. Compared with the previous year, the ending inventory increased by 800,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere is on the market, with high supply pressure and weak consumption. The US cotton export is slow, and it is under short - term pressure. Domestically, the 2025/26 cotton production increased, the commercial inventory rose seasonally, the downstream orders declined, and the inventory increased. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possible inventory shortage at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. Be vigilant against high - level correction in the short term, and the long - term upward space depends on policy implementation [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,280 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (- 0.36%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,215 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [2] - As of January 12, 2026, Punjab, India had crushed over 18.647 million tons of sugarcane, producing 1.712 million tons of sugar [3] Market Analysis - The global 2025/26 sugar market is in surplus. In the short term, the trade flow is in a tight balance, and in the long term, the market should not be overly pessimistic. Domestically, sugar production is increasing, the supply is growing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. The price may oscillate at the bottom in the short - to - medium term, with limited downward space [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,436 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,515 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,090 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price turned weak. The price of imported softwood pulp in some markets decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and the price of imported hardwood pulp in some markets decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills had shutdown and maintenance. Demand: European port inventory decreased, and domestic port inventory was high but decreased slightly in December. The expanding paper production capacity will increase the demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, and the upward height depends on demand and inventory [8]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [1] - Sugar: Neutral [4] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The overall pattern of domestic and foreign cotton prices is divided, with a strong domestic and weak foreign situation. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the demand side of domestic cotton is weakening marginally. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to be bullish [1] - Sugar: The global sugar market is in a state of surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar is in a situation of increasing supply and the price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [3][4] - Pulp: Overseas supply is disturbed, and domestic demand is expected to recover moderately in the short - term. The price will fluctuate and be slightly strong, but the upward height depends on demand and inventory digestion [7] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,435 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,385 yuan/ton, up 267 yuan/ton. From December 19th to 25th, the US graded and inspected 129,200 tons of 2025/26 cotton, and 82.1% met the ICE cotton delivery requirements [1] - Market Analysis: The domestic and foreign cotton price trends are divided. Internationally, the US cotton inventory pressure increases, and the global textile consumption is weak. Domestically, cotton production increases, and the demand side is marginally weakening [1] - Strategy: Neutral to bullish. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to rise, but short - term high - level corrections should be vigilant [1] Sugar - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5253 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton. As of December 27, 2025/26, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 1.2793 million tons, down 15.83% year - on - year [2] - Market Analysis: The global sugar market is in surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high [3][4] - Strategy: Neutral. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [4] Pulp - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5510 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Market Analysis: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, and the European demand has improved. The domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is high but showing a downward trend [6] - Strategy: Neutral. The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate and be slightly strong, depending on demand and inventory digestion [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral to bearish [6] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views - Cotton: The 25/26 global cotton production and demand both decrease, and the ending stocks increase slightly. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, while in the long - term, it has limited downward space. In China, the supply is abundant in the short - term, but the downstream demand is weak. However, the improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. - Sugar: The 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. Although the short - term factors support the rebound of raw sugar prices, the upside space is limited. Zhengzhou sugar has sufficient short - term supply, but its low valuation restricts the further decline [5]. - Pulp: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news. European port pulp inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal demand is still insufficient. However, the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize gradually [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 13,960 yuan/ton yesterday, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.25%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,978 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the national average price was 15,139 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's cotton imports were 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons (34.4%) and a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (9.4%). From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64.0% [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment of global cotton supply - demand data this month is small. The US cotton production increases slightly, and there is greater inventory pressure. The short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the long - term upward driver is not clear. - Domestic: China's cotton production in the 25/26 season continues to increase. The short - term supply is abundant, but the downstream demand is weak. The improvement in spinning profits restricts the downward space of cotton prices [2]. Strategy Be neutral to bullish, focus on the opportunity of going long on the 05 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,102 yuan/ton yesterday, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.72%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,270 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton. - Import: In November 2025, China's sugar imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 tons. As of the end of November in the 25/26 season, the imports were 1.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazil's sugarcane harvest is accelerating, India's exports are difficult to increase in the short - term, and Thailand's sugarcane crushing is delayed. Although the short - term raw sugar price rebounds, the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus pattern restricts its upside space. - Zhengzhou sugar: Guangxi sugar mills are starting production, with short - term sufficient supply. However, the low valuation restricts its downward space [5]. Strategy Be neutral to bearish. Pay attention to the impact of capital on the market, and treat it with a low - level consolidation mindset [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,500 yuan/ton yesterday, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,540 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,095 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. - Inventory: The total inventory of pulp in 1 region and 8 ports decreased by 1.39% week - on - week, and the decline narrowed by 3.50 percentage points [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, such as Domtar closing the Crofton paper mill and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill having a temporary shutdown. - Demand: The European port pulp inventory in October decreased, showing some improvement in demand. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, but the decline in port inventory and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp prices to stabilize [7]. Strategy Be neutral. Although the pulp price has risen strongly recently, the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand situation restricts its upside space. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]