Core Viewpoint - Tesla's supply chain leader, Top Group, is experiencing a decline in performance alongside Tesla's revenue and net profit drop in Q1 2025, indicating a potential loss of its previous luster [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Tesla's revenue was $19.335 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.23% [2]. - Top Group's revenue for Q1 2025 was 5.768 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of only 1.40%, a significant slowdown compared to previous years where growth rates were 100.80%, 54.34%, 19.32%, and 27.29% respectively [2]. - The net profit of Top Group declined by 12.39% in Q1 2025, with a gross margin of 19.9%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Dynamics - The decline in performance is attributed to adjustments in major customer models, particularly Tesla's Model Y and other vehicles, which affected orders for Top Group [3]. - Tesla's global production in Q1 2025 was 362,600 units, a decrease of 16.3% year-on-year, while another client, Seres, saw a production drop of 45.7% [3]. Strategic Outlook - Top Group has indicated that while Q1 performance was impacted, there is an expectation of improvement in Q2 due to better order conditions [3]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its customer base to reduce reliance on a single major client, emphasizing its coverage of global mainstream automakers, especially in the electric vehicle sector [3]. Robotics Business Growth - Despite the slowdown in the electric vehicle parts business, Top Group's robotics segment is emerging as a growth area [4]. - The global humanoid robot market is projected to reach 12,400 units and a market size of 6.339 billion yuan in 2025, with significant growth expected through 2035 [4]. - Top Group is actively developing various robotic technologies and plans to establish a robotics industry base covering approximately 150 acres [5].

| 投资要点 | | --- | 事件： 公司发布2024年年报，2024年公司实现营收 266亿元，同比+35.02%，归属于上市公司股东的 净利润 30亿元，同比+39.52%，实现扣非归母净利润27.3亿元，同比+35.0%，利润率方面， 2024年公司实现毛利率20.8%，实现净利率11.3%；2024年公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别 为1.0%/2.3%/4.6%/0.6%。24Q4公司实现营收72.5亿元，同比+30.63%/环比+1.66%；24Q4归母 净利润达7.67亿元，同比+38.47%/环比-1.45%，实现扣非归母净利润7.1亿元，同比+35.5%；利 润率方面，实现毛利率19.8%，同比-4.29pct/环比-1.06pct；24Q4净利率达10.58%，同比 +0.60pct/环比-0.33pct，24Q4公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别0.6%/2.1%/5.0%/0.7%。 24年业绩高速增长，汽车电子贡献增量： 分业务看，1）内饰业务营收84.34亿元，同比+28.24%，毛利率18.12%，同比-1.79pct；2）底 盘业务营收82.03亿元，同比+33.98 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a robust performance in 2024, with total revenue reaching 26.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3 billion yuan, up 39.52% year-on-year [7] - The automotive electronics segment significantly contributed to revenue growth, with a staggering 907.63% increase in revenue [7] - The company is expanding into the robotics sector, which is expected to open new growth avenues [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been slightly adjusted downwards due to client production line changes, with net profit estimates of 3.554 billion yuan and 4.460 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 19.701 billion yuan (2023A), 26.600 billion yuan (2024A), 32.879 billion yuan (2025E), 40.774 billion yuan (2026E), and 48.929 billion yuan (2027E) [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 2.151 billion yuan in 2023A to 5.652 billion yuan in 2027E [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to increase from 1.24 yuan in 2023A to 3.25 yuan in 2027E [1] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 41.85 in 2023A to 15.93 in 2027E, indicating a potential for value appreciation [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved robust growth in 2024, with total revenue reaching 26.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.02%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 3 billion yuan, up 39.52% year-on-year [7] - The automotive electronics segment significantly contributed to revenue growth, with a staggering 907.63% increase in revenue [7] - The company is expanding into the robotics business, which is expected to open new growth avenues [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 19.7 billion yuan, projected to grow to 26.6 billion yuan in 2024, 32.9 billion yuan in 2025, 40.8 billion yuan in 2026, and 48.9 billion yuan in 2027 [1][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 2.15 billion yuan, expected to rise to 3 billion yuan in 2024, 3.55 billion yuan in 2025, 4.46 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.65 billion yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.24 yuan for 2023, increasing to 1.73 yuan in 2024, 2.05 yuan in 2025, 2.57 yuan in 2026, and 3.25 yuan in 2027 [1][8] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 20.8%, with a net profit margin of 11.3% [7] Business Segment Performance - The interior business generated revenue of 8.43 billion yuan, up 28.24% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 18.12% [7] - The chassis business reported revenue of 8.20 billion yuan, a 33.98% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 20.42% [7] - The automotive electronics business, which saw a revenue increase of 907.63%, is a key driver of growth [7]