Core Viewpoint - Tesla's supply chain leader, Top Group, is experiencing a decline in performance alongside Tesla's revenue and net profit drop in Q1 2025, indicating a potential loss of its previous luster [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Tesla's revenue was $19.335 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.23% [2]. - Top Group's revenue for Q1 2025 was 5.768 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of only 1.40%, a significant slowdown compared to previous years where growth rates were 100.80%, 54.34%, 19.32%, and 27.29% respectively [2]. - The net profit of Top Group declined by 12.39% in Q1 2025, with a gross margin of 19.9%, down 2.5 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Market Dynamics - The decline in performance is attributed to adjustments in major customer models, particularly Tesla's Model Y and other vehicles, which affected orders for Top Group [3]. - Tesla's global production in Q1 2025 was 362,600 units, a decrease of 16.3% year-on-year, while another client, Seres, saw a production drop of 45.7% [3]. Strategic Outlook - Top Group has indicated that while Q1 performance was impacted, there is an expectation of improvement in Q2 due to better order conditions [3]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its customer base to reduce reliance on a single major client, emphasizing its coverage of global mainstream automakers, especially in the electric vehicle sector [3]. Robotics Business Growth - Despite the slowdown in the electric vehicle parts business, Top Group's robotics segment is emerging as a growth area [4]. - The global humanoid robot market is projected to reach 12,400 units and a market size of 6.339 billion yuan in 2025, with significant growth expected through 2035 [4]. - Top Group is actively developing various robotic technologies and plans to establish a robotics industry base covering approximately 150 acres [5].

| 投资要点 | | --- | 事件： 公司发布2024年年报，2024年公司实现营收 266亿元，同比+35.02%，归属于上市公司股东的 净利润 30亿元，同比+39.52%，实现扣非归母净利润27.3亿元，同比+35.0%，利润率方面， 2024年公司实现毛利率20.8%，实现净利率11.3%；2024年公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别 为1.0%/2.3%/4.6%/0.6%。24Q4公司实现营收72.5亿元，同比+30.63%/环比+1.66%；24Q4归母 净利润达7.67亿元，同比+38.47%/环比-1.45%，实现扣非归母净利润7.1亿元，同比+35.5%；利 润率方面，实现毛利率19.8%，同比-4.29pct/环比-1.06pct；24Q4净利率达10.58%，同比 +0.60pct/环比-0.33pct，24Q4公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别0.6%/2.1%/5.0%/0.7%。 24年业绩高速增长，汽车电子贡献增量： 分业务看，1）内饰业务营收84.34亿元，同比+28.24%，毛利率18.12%，同比-1.79pct；2）底 盘业务营收82.03亿元，同比+33.98 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a robust performance in 2024, with total revenue reaching 26.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3 billion yuan, up 39.52% year-on-year [7] - The automotive electronics segment significantly contributed to revenue growth, with a staggering 907.63% increase in revenue [7] - The company is expanding into the robotics sector, which is expected to open new growth avenues [7] - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been slightly adjusted downwards due to client production line changes, with net profit estimates of 3.554 billion yuan and 4.460 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: 19.701 billion yuan (2023A), 26.600 billion yuan (2024A), 32.879 billion yuan (2025E), 40.774 billion yuan (2026E), and 48.929 billion yuan (2027E) [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 2.151 billion yuan in 2023A to 5.652 billion yuan in 2027E [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to increase from 1.24 yuan in 2023A to 3.25 yuan in 2027E [1] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 41.85 in 2023A to 15.93 in 2027E, indicating a potential for value appreciation [1]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·汽车零部件 拓普集团（601689） 2024 年年报点评：业绩稳健向好，机器人打 开成长空间 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 19,701 | 26,600 | 32,879 | 40,774 | 48,929 | | 同比（%） | 23.18 | 35.02 | 23.60 | 24.01 | 20.00 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,151 | 3,001 | 3,554 | 4,460 | 5,652 | | 同比（%） | 26.49 | 39.52 | 18.46 | 25.47 | 26.72 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.24 | 1.73 | 2.05 | 2.57 | 3.25 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 41.85 | 29.99 | 25.32 | 20.18 | 15.93 | [Table_Tag] [Tab ...