2026 年 02 月 25 日 公司研究●证券研究报告 | | | 拓普集团（601689.SH） 公司快报 2025 年业绩预告点评：全年业绩符合预期，机 器人、液冷蓄势待发 投资要点 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 19,701 | 26,600 | 29,735 | 36,521 | 44,111 | | YoY(%) | 23.2 | 35.0 | 11.8 | 22.8 | 20.8 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 2,151 | 3,001 | 2,768 | 3,467 | 4,347 | | YoY(%) | 26.5 | 39.5 | -7.8 | 25.3 | 25.4 | | 毛利率(%) | 23.0 | 20.8 | 19.3 | 19.7 | 20.2 | | EPS(摊薄/元) | 1.24 | 1.73 | 1.59 | 2.00 | 2.50 | | ROE(%) | 15.6 | 15. ...

机构投资者占流通 A 股比例 基金 13.9% 一般法人 68.7% 股价相对大盘走势 C o m p a n y U p d a t e 2026 年 02 月 12 日 赵旭东 H70556@capital.com.tw 目标价(元) 84 公司基本信息 | 产业别 | | 汽车 | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2026/2/11) | | 71.60 | | 上证指数(2026/2/11) | | 4131.99 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 86.88/41.97 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 1737.84 | | A 股数(百万) | | 1737.84 | | A 市值(亿元) | | 1244.29 | | 主要股东 | | 迈科国际控股 | | | | (香港)有限公 | | | | 司(57.88%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 13.39 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 5.35 | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | -0.7 | 19.7 4.6 | | 近期评等 | | | | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 ...

格隆汇2月12日｜中金公司研报指出，公司2025年业绩预告低于我们预期。认为尽管26年车市销量相对 承压，但公司客户结构优质、单车价值量提升，有望支撑收入稳定增长。人形机器人加速推进。公司打 造平台型供应商，电驱执行器已批量交付，灵巧手电机已多次送样，布局躯体结构件、传感器、足部减 震器、电子柔性皮肤等。产能方面除国内宁波基地外，公司拟规划泰国建厂承接海外需求。展望后续， 我们期待特斯拉发布OptimusV3对股价形成一定催化。考虑特斯拉机器人V3亮相在即、行业催化密集， 维持"跑赢行业"评级，维持目标价86.3元， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company expects steady revenue growth in 2025, with projected revenue between 28.75 billion to 30.35 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.1% to 14.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 3.4% to 13.4% [3] Group 1: Revenue Growth and Profitability - The median revenue for 2025 is projected at 29.55 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year growth, with Q4 revenue expected to be between 7.82 billion to 9.42 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 7.9% to 30.0% [4] - The decline in net profit is attributed to raw material price fluctuations and intensified market competition, leading to a decrease in gross margin, compounded by the complexities of the international situation [4] - The company is enhancing operational efficiency through large-scale procurement, smart manufacturing, and lean management, which helps to dilute R&D and operational costs [4] Group 2: Strategic Partnerships and Product Development - The company is strategically aligned with Tesla and emerging car manufacturers, aiming to penetrate the global supply chain, and has established stable partnerships with both international and domestic innovative car companies [5] - The company has developed eight product lines under the Tier 0.5 model, enhancing the value of single vehicle components, with a total value of approximately 30,000 yuan per vehicle [5] Group 3: Robotics and AI Applications - The company is actively expanding into robotics and AI applications, with a focus on products such as robotic actuators, sensors, and thermal management systems, and has secured orders worth 1.5 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025 [6] - Planned investments include 5 billion yuan for a robotics electric drive system production base and up to 300 million USD for a production base in Thailand, with expected completion by the end of 2025 [6] Group 4: Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 29.55 billion, 35.88 billion, and 42.84 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 2.76 billion, 3.4 billion, and 4.26 billion yuan [7] - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.59, 1.96, and 2.45 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 45, 37, and 29 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 287.5 to 303.5 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.1% to 14.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 26.0 to 29.0 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 13.4% to 3.4% year-on-year [1][2]. - The revenue midpoint for 2025 is estimated at 295.5 billion yuan, indicating an 11.1% year-on-year increase. The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to see revenue between 78.2 to 94.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% to 30.0% [2]. - The company has successfully established a Tier 0.5 collaboration model, gaining recognition from both domestic and international clients, which has led to an increase in the per-vehicle component value [2][9]. - The company is accelerating its international expansion with overseas production bases and is implementing cost-reduction measures through scale procurement and smart manufacturing [2][9]. Financial Projections - For 2025, the company is projected to have total revenue of 29,550 million yuan, with a growth rate of 11.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2,764 million yuan, showing a decline of 7.9% [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.59 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 45 [4][10]. - The company anticipates a revenue increase to 35,877 million yuan in 2026 and 42,838 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 3,400 million yuan and 4,260 million yuan respectively [4][10].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records focus on the humanoid robotics industry, highlighting various companies involved in the sector, including 日盈电子 (Riying Electronics), 特格高材 (Tegao Materials), 伟创电气 (Weichuang Electric), 开特股份 (Kaiter Co.), 亚信科技 (Yaxin Technology), 拓普集团 (Top Group), and 凯迪股份 (Kaidi Co.) [1][2][3][4][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **日盈电子 (Riying Electronics)**: - Initiated a "T Zero Mass Production Consulting" project with 特格高材 (Tegao Materials) at its headquarters [1] - The company has received high recognition for its products in the U.S. since 2025, indicating a strong market position [2] - **伟创电气 (Weichuang Electric)**: - Recently underwent a technical audit by Tesla, showcasing capabilities in motors, encoders, and drivers, with a goal to finalize product specifications by mid-February 2026 to ensure mass production starts in April [3] - Maintains a production plan of 1,000 units per week by June 2026 and 10,000 units per week by June 2027 [3] - **开特股份 (Kaiter Co.)**: - Established a joint venture with 西安旭彤 (Xi'an Xutong) to develop six-dimensional force sensors, encoders, and electronic mechanical brake systems, collaborating with 图灵机器人 (Turing Robotics) [3] - **亚信科技 (Yaxin Technology)**: - Launched a "Physical AI Laboratory" in collaboration with ABB Robotics, marking a significant step in their strategic partnership [4] - **拓普集团 (Top Group)**: - Reduced the size of dexterous hand motors from 15mm to 12mm and is enhancing product features such as vibration reduction and slip resistance in shoes, with a production capacity target of 2,000 units per week by June [4] - **凯迪股份 (Kaidi Co.)**: - Signed a strategic cooperation agreement with 新泉股份 (Xinquan Co.) to jointly develop key components for robotics [5] Additional Important Information - The records emphasize that the information is based on market rumors and does not represent personal opinions or investment advice, urging caution in interpretation [1][5] - The collaboration between companies in the humanoid robotics sector indicates a trend towards strategic partnerships aimed at enhancing technological capabilities and market reach [3][4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has transitioned from a single product leader to a platform enterprise in the automotive parts industry, with a focus on eight major product lines and an active expansion into emerging fields like robotics. The expected revenue for 2025-2027 is projected to be 296 billion, 359 billion, and 454 billion yuan, with net profits of 28.3 billion, 36.2 billion, and 48.5 billion yuan respectively. The current market valuation corresponds to PE ratios of 51, 40, and 30 times [4][5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 40 years of experience in the automotive parts sector, evolving through three key stages: initial entry, business expansion, and rapid growth, particularly in the context of electric vehicles and robotics [17] Business Model and Strategy - The core drivers of the company's sustained growth are binding key customers for volume increases and a platform-based layout that enhances the value per vehicle. The company has successfully partnered with major clients like SAIC-GM, Geely, and Tesla, significantly increasing its per-vehicle value from a few hundred yuan to approximately 30,000 yuan [5][19] Robotics and Automotive Synergy - The company is leveraging its automotive supply chain expertise to enter the humanoid robotics market, which shares significant technological and hardware similarities with automotive systems. The projected market for humanoid robots could reach 140 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 68% from 2026 to 2030 [6][7] Financial Performance and Projections - The company’s revenue and net profit have shown consistent growth, with 2025 projected revenues of 29.6 billion yuan and net profits of 2.83 billion yuan. The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 20% [9][25] Customer Base and Market Position - The company has established a diverse customer base, with Tesla becoming a significant contributor to revenue, accounting for approximately 40% of total revenue by 2023. The company is also expanding its client portfolio to include other major players in the automotive and robotics sectors [19][46] Production Capacity and Efficiency - The company is investing 5 billion yuan to build a core component production base for robotics in Ningbo, while also enhancing its overseas production capabilities to align with customer production schedules [7][55]

Company and Industry Summary Company: Top Group Key Points - **Main Business Stability and New Growth Areas** Top Group's main business remains stable while it is actively developing liquid cooling technology as a new growth point [1][3] - **Accelerated Development in Smart Driving and Automotive Electronics** The company is witnessing rapid growth in its automotive electronics business, with overseas production capacity being continuously released, establishing a solid foundation for future development [2][4] - **Growth in Data Centers and Supercomputing Centers** There is a significant increase in data centers and supercomputing centers, with liquid cooling technology expected to substantially reduce their Power Usage Effectiveness (PUE) metrics [2][4] - **Liquid Cooling Product Portfolio** The company's liquid cooling-related products include liquid cooling pumps, temperature and pressure sensors, and various flow control valves, which are anticipated to benefit from industry growth [5] - **Robotics Business Development** The robotics business is undergoing in-depth development, with breakthroughs in mass production leading the industry [6] - **Progress in Robotics Actuator Projects** The robotic electric drive actuator project is progressing smoothly, with iterative upgrades based on demand and the commencement of bulk supply [7] - **Diverse Robotics Product Offerings** The dexterous hand motor has been sampled to customers multiple times and is now in bulk supply. The company is also actively developing robotic body structural components, sensors, foot shock absorbers, and electronic flexible skin, further establishing a platform-based product layout for its robotics business [8] - **Investment Recommendations** The company is expected to benefit from its global expansion and diverse product matrix. Projections for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 are 3.1 billion, 3.8 billion, and 4.6 billion yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 44, 36, and 30 times, respectively. A "Buy" rating is maintained [8] Risk Factors - **Raw Material Price Fluctuations** Potential risks include fluctuations in raw material prices [9] - **Customer Sales Below Expectations** There is a risk that customer sales may not meet expectations [9] - **Acquisition Progress Delays** Delays in acquisition progress could pose additional risks [9]

Group 1 - The 2026 Spring Festival Gala will integrate "technology + art," showcasing advancements in robotics and enhancing public awareness of "Chinese manufacturing" [1] - The performance will validate the capabilities of domestic robot technology, driving upgrades in the industry chain and attracting capital interest in humanoid robots and related components [1] - The event is expected to stimulate the commercialization of AI algorithms and other technologies, benefiting core industry chain companies [1] Group 2 - Top Group, a core supplier for Tesla, is expanding its product offerings, including joint assemblies and smart motors, and aims to become a leading global supplier of robot components [2] - Lixun Precision Industry has passed testing for its rotary joint module with a major humanoid robot manufacturer and is currently in the small batch sample testing phase [2]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of timely and professional information interpretation in investment decision-making [1] - It highlights the company's focus on extracting investment value from significant events, analyzing industry chain companies, and interpreting key policies [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The company has developed a product that integrates robotics, liquid cooling, and intelligent driving technologies [1] - It has successfully collaborated with leading humanoid robot manufacturers both domestically and internationally [1] - The liquid cooling products have been integrated with major clients such as Huawei, Nvidia, and Meta [1] Group 2: Automotive Business - The company's automotive division is closely tied to Tesla, indicating a strategic partnership [1] - Multiple projects related to intelligent braking systems have entered mass production [1]