Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) [4] Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by declining prices across the industry chain, with a significant drop in revenue and net profit in 2024. However, there is an expectation that the company's BC product shipment ratio will exceed 25% by 2025 [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 82.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -8.62 billion yuan, down 180.2% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 13.65 billion yuan, down 22.8% year-on-year and 43.1% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -1.44 billion yuan, an increase of 38.9% year-on-year and 32.0% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The company's silicon wafer revenue in 2024 was 8.21 billion yuan, down 66.5% year-on-year, with a shipment of 108.46 GW. The revenue from modules and batteries was 66.33 billion yuan, down 33.1% year-on-year, with a battery module shipment of 82.32 GW [2] - The gross margins for silicon wafers and battery modules in 2024 were -14.3% and 6.3%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 30.2 percentage points and 12.1 percentage points [2] Product and Technology Development - Longi Green Energy is a leading company in BC technology, with its HPBC 1.0 production line being upgraded to N-type HPBC 2.0 technology, achieving a battery yield of approximately 97%. The company expects its BC component shipments to reach 17.33 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 191%, and 4.32 GW in Q1 2025 [3] - By the end of 2025, the company's BC production capacity is projected to increase to 50 GW, with an expected shipment ratio of BC products exceeding 25% for the year [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company [3][6] Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by declining prices across the industry chain, with a significant drop in revenue and profit margins [4][5] - The company is expected to increase its BC product shipment ratio to over 25% by the end of 2025, driven by advancements in technology and production capacity [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 82.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -8.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 180.2% [3][4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 13.65 billion yuan, down 22.8% year-on-year and 43.1% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -1.44 billion yuan, an increase of 38.9% year-on-year and 32.0% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The company's silicon wafer revenue in 2024 was 8.21 billion yuan, down 66.5% year-on-year, while the revenue from modules and batteries was 66.33 billion yuan, down 33.1% year-on-year [4] Production and Capacity Insights - The company shipped 17.33 GW of BC modules in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 191%, and 4.32 GW in Q1 2025 [5] - By the end of 2025, the company's BC production capacity is expected to reach 50 GW, with the second-generation BC capacity projected to increase to 35 GW by mid-2025 [5] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are -0.28 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.60 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of -51.0, 45.3, and 23.9 [6][8]

Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing a phase of pain due to an adjustment cycle, with many companies facing losses. Among the top ten photovoltaic companies by revenue, 70% reported a decline in revenue, and 40% are operating at a loss, with Longi Green Energy facing the largest loss of over 8.6 billion yuan in 2024, marking its first annual loss in a decade [1][2][7]. Industry Overview - The industry is characterized by a temporary oversupply of production capacity, leading to significant losses for major players. Longi Green Energy's revenue fell by 36.23% to 82.58 billion yuan, with a net profit loss of 8.6 billion yuan, a staggering 180.15% decline year-on-year [2][5]. - The overall gross margin for Longi Green Energy dropped to 7.44%, a decrease of over 10 percentage points compared to the previous year. The gross margin for its silicon wafer and rod business was negative at -14.31%, while the module and battery segment also saw a significant decline [5][12]. Company Performance - Longi Green Energy's performance is indicative of broader industry trends, with other companies like Trina Solar and JinkoSolar also reporting substantial losses due to supply-demand imbalances and increased competition [7][8]. - In contrast, companies in the photovoltaic equipment supply sector, referred to as "selling shovels," such as Jiejia Weichuang, reported strong performance, with a revenue increase of over 116% to 18.9 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.76 billion yuan, reflecting a more favorable position in the current market [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with excess capacity and a lack of demand leading to significant financial strain on many companies. The industry is expected to see a clearing of outdated capacities and less competitive firms [7][12]. - Despite the challenges, there is an expectation that companies with core technological capabilities and strong cost control will emerge more resilient and may benefit from recovery opportunities in the future [12].