Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for Longi Green Energy (601012.SH) [4] Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by declining prices across the industry chain, with a significant drop in revenue and net profit in 2024. However, there is an expectation that the company's BC product shipment ratio will exceed 25% by 2025 [1][4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 82.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -8.62 billion yuan, down 180.2% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue was 13.65 billion yuan, down 22.8% year-on-year and 43.1% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -1.44 billion yuan, an increase of 38.9% year-on-year and 32.0% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The company's silicon wafer revenue in 2024 was 8.21 billion yuan, down 66.5% year-on-year, with a shipment of 108.46 GW. The revenue from modules and batteries was 66.33 billion yuan, down 33.1% year-on-year, with a battery module shipment of 82.32 GW [2] - The gross margins for silicon wafers and battery modules in 2024 were -14.3% and 6.3%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 30.2 percentage points and 12.1 percentage points [2] Product and Technology Development - Longi Green Energy is a leading company in BC technology, with its HPBC 1.0 production line being upgraded to N-type HPBC 2.0 technology, achieving a battery yield of approximately 97%. The company expects its BC component shipments to reach 17.33 GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 191%, and 4.32 GW in Q1 2025 [3] - By the end of 2025, the company's BC production capacity is projected to increase to 50 GW, with an expected shipment ratio of BC products exceeding 25% for the year [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company [3][6] Core Views - The company's performance has been negatively impacted by declining prices across the industry chain, with a significant drop in revenue and profit margins [4][5] - The company is expected to increase its BC product shipment ratio to over 25% by the end of 2025, driven by advancements in technology and production capacity [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 82.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 36.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -8.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 180.2% [3][4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 13.65 billion yuan, down 22.8% year-on-year and 43.1% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of -1.44 billion yuan, an increase of 38.9% year-on-year and 32.0% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The company's silicon wafer revenue in 2024 was 8.21 billion yuan, down 66.5% year-on-year, while the revenue from modules and batteries was 66.33 billion yuan, down 33.1% year-on-year [4] Production and Capacity Insights - The company shipped 17.33 GW of BC modules in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 191%, and 4.32 GW in Q1 2025 [5] - By the end of 2025, the company's BC production capacity is expected to reach 50 GW, with the second-generation BC capacity projected to increase to 35 GW by mid-2025 [5] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are -0.28 yuan, 0.32 yuan, and 0.60 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of -51.0, 45.3, and 23.9 [6][8]

在光伏调整周期下，行业整体处于阶段性阵痛期，产业链上多数企业处于亏损态势。据南都湾财社记者 统计，在营收规模排名前十的光伏企业中，有七成上市公司营收呈下滑态势，四成企业亏损，其中隆基 绿能2024年亏损额度最大，超过86亿元，也是近十年来的首次年度亏损。 在近日召开的股东大会上，一位光伏企业的高管表示：行业阵痛期，企业比拼的还是现金流和技术这些 底子；但任何一个行业不可能长期处于（不盈利）的状态，"到明年开春的时候，那些掌握核心技术， 拥有更强成本管控能力的企业或许可以真正地看到春色。" 产能阶段性过剩，隆基绿能十年首亏 据南都湾财社记者统计，在营收规模排名前十的光伏企业中，有七成上市公司营收呈下滑态势，四成企 业亏损，其中隆基绿能2024年亏损额度最大，超过86亿元，扣非后净利润亏损额度更是超过87亿元，同 比暴跌超180%。 | 公司名称 | 营收 | 同比增幅 | 归母净利 | 同比增幅 | 扣非后净利润 | 增幅 | 毛利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 特变电工 | 978.67亿元 | -0.35% | 41.35亿元 | ...