在线音乐收入增速略微放缓 维持"买入"评级 机构：华泰证券 考虑到会员结构对ARPU 的摊薄影响以及公司计划加大营销投入，我们下调26/27、引入28E 调整后归 母净利润为22.39/25.20/27.50 亿元（下调16%/16%/-）。基于26 年调整后归母净利润，给予公司20.71x 26E PE（同可比公司彭博一致预期均值），目标价239.40 港元（前值360.42 港币/27xPE），维持"买 入"评级。 研究员：夏路路/詹博/朱珺/郑裕佳 风险提示：订阅用户增长放缓；内容成本抬升；行业监管收紧等。 25H1/H2 在线音乐收入同比增速分别为15.9%/8.3%，其中会员订阅收入同比增长15.2%/11.6%，我们估 计环比降速主因会员结构变化带来月度ARPU摊薄，料订阅会员规模仍维持稳健增长。公司预计26 年将 继续聚焦热爱音乐的年轻群体，以扩大会员规模为核心重点，加大市场营销和内容自制投入，同时优化 部分渠道折扣力度，有望推动订阅收入量价齐升。 推广费用持续优化，净利润略超预期 25 全年公司毛利率同比上升2pct 至35.7%，主因社交娱乐收入分成下降，同时内容授权成本控制良好。 25 全 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the paradox of membership fees in e-commerce, where users often end up spending more to "break even" on their memberships, leading to a common frustration among domestic members [2][31] - Amazon's Prime membership, launched in 2005, is highlighted as a pioneering model that transformed the e-commerce landscape by focusing on long-term customer value rather than immediate profits [5][9] Group 1: Amazon Prime's Strategy - Amazon introduced Prime to address customer pain points related to shipping costs and delivery times, offering unlimited two-day shipping for an annual fee of $79, which was initially criticized as a risky move [5][7] - The success of Prime is attributed to its "flywheel" effect, where low prices and a wide selection attract users, leading to increased traffic and seller participation, creating a self-reinforcing cycle [11][13] - Prime members exhibit a threefold higher repurchase rate compared to regular users, making them highly valuable to third-party sellers [13][14] Group 2: Psychological Factors - Amazon employs psychological strategies such as the "sunk cost" effect, where users feel compelled to shop more to justify their membership fee, leading to increased spending [18] - The "decision fatigue" is mitigated by simplifying the purchasing process, allowing users to shop without worrying about shipping costs or delivery times [19] - The "endowment effect" is leveraged by continuously adding new benefits to Prime, making users reluctant to cancel their memberships despite not fully utilizing all features [21] Group 3: Domestic Membership Models - Domestic e-commerce platforms have attempted to replicate Prime's model, with varying degrees of success; successful examples include Taobao's 88VIP and JD Plus, which address specific consumer needs [23][25] - Some platforms have failed by overloading memberships with superficial benefits that do not resonate with users, leading to dissatisfaction [25][28] - The essence of membership should focus on building long-term relationships with users rather than merely extracting fees through a plethora of benefits [28][31]