这位前高级官员警告，若日本央行加息步伐迟缓，日元可能进一步走软，并特别提及凯文·沃什被提名 为美联储下任主席一事。"沃什很可能遵循前财长罗伯特·鲁宾以来的传统，即认为强势且稳定的美元符 合美国利益，"他表示。 日本央行于去年12月将短期政策利率上调至0.75%，并已示意准备继续推高借贷成本。然而，由于通胀 率持续近四年超过日本央行2%的目标，实际借贷成本仍深陷负值区间。 Nakao将日元疲软归咎于日本央行仍偏宽松的立场，认为缓慢的加息步伐导致日本经通胀调整后的利率 显著为负，且美日利差依然悬殊。"通过加息对通胀作出恰当回应，或许也能抑制长期国债收益率的过 度跃升，"他补充道。 智通财经APP获悉，日本前高级外汇事务官员表示，动用外汇储备进行市场干预能对汇率产生立竿见影 的冲击，但若辅以日本央行的稳步加息，其效果将更为持久。 曾任财务省国际事务副大臣(2011-2013年)的Takehiko Nakao在接受采访时发表上述看法。此番言论正值 日元重启跌势，且日本选举进入周日投票前的最后冲刺阶段。 "动用真金白银干预市场能产生强大影响力，但如果日本央行同时展现出稳步加息的明确决心，其效果 将更为持久，"现任国际经 ...

新华财经北京2月3日电日本财务大臣片山皋月表示，首相高市早苗在上周末并没有过度强调日元贬值的 好处。此举暗示片山正试图维持市场对政府干预风险的警惕。 （文章来源：新华财经） 随着2月8日众议院大选临近，交易员们正准备应对加剧的市场波动。他们押注高市早苗领导的自民党可 能会赢得大胜。这种结果可能为更激进的财政政策铺平道路，进而可能推高通胀，并给日元和日本国债 带来压力。 片山皋月表示："她只是对日元汇率做出了教科书式的回应，并没有特别强调日元疲软的利好。"她补充 称，自己赞同高市早苗的立场，即日元贬值有利有弊。 ...

AI图片 投资者对美国政策不可预测性的担忧日益加深，美元兑主要货币汇率跌至四年来最低谷。 此时美国总统特朗普却并不担心。他周二表示，美元表现很好，并不担心美元下跌，预计汇率会有波动。 被记者问及是否担心美元贬值时，特朗普表示： "不，我认为美元表现很棒。我认为美元的价值——看看我们正在进行的贸易，美元表现出色。" "我希望美元能够——找到它自己的合理水平，这才是公平的做法。" 特朗普暗示他可以操纵美元汇率，称"我可以让它像溜溜球一样上下波动"。但他认为这样做并非好事，并将其比作为了提高就业数据而雇佣不必要的员 工，同时批评了一些他认为试图贬值本国货币的亚洲经济体。 虽然特朗普显得不担心美元贬值，但评论认为，美元的跌势还没完。长期来看，美联储独立性、不断扩大的预算赤字、财政挥霍相关的担忧以及政治两 极分化等结构性因素正对美元构成下行压力。 特朗普讲话后，美东时间27日周二美股尾盘，ICE美元指数（DXY）跌幅扩大，曾跌破96.00至95.60下方，刷新2022年2月以来低位，日内跌约1.5%，和 彭博美元现货指数均四连跌，后者盘中刷新2022年3月以来低位，最近六个交易日累跌超3%，均创去年4月特朗普公布对等关 ...

投资者对美国政策不可预测性的担忧日益加深，美元兑主要货币汇率跌至四年来最低谷。此时美国总统特朗普却并不担心。他周二表示，美元表现 很好，并不担心美元下跌，预计汇率会有波动。 被记者问及是否担心美元贬值时，特朗普表示： "不，我认为美元表现很棒。我认为美元的价值——看看我们正在进行的贸易，美元表现出色。" "我希望美元能够——找到它自己的合理水平，这才是公平的做法。" 特朗普暗示他可以操纵美元汇率，称"我可以让它像溜溜球一样上下波动"。但他认为这样做并非好事，并将其比作为了提高就业数据而雇佣不必要 的员工，同时批评了一些他认为试图贬值本国货币的亚洲经济体。 虽然特朗普显得不担心美元贬值，但评论认为，美元的跌势还没完。长期来看，美联储独立性、不断扩大的预算赤字、财政挥霍相关的担忧以及政 治两极分化等结构性因素正对美元构成下行压力。 美东时间27日周二美股午盘，追踪美元兑欧元等六种主要货币一篮子汇价的ICE美元指数（DXY）曾跌至96.20下方，刷新2022年2月以来低位，日内 跌逾0.9%，和彭博美元现货指数均四连跌，后者盘中刷新2022年3月以来低位，均创去年4月特朗普公布对等关税以来最大四日跌幅。 Brown ...

A 'rate check' by U.S. officials has boosted the Japanese currency. ...

Core Viewpoint - The report by Derek Halpenny from MUFG indicates that prior to the Bank of Japan's policy decision on January 23, Japanese authorities may be hesitant to follow through on their threats to intervene in the yen's depreciation [1] Group 1: Bank of Japan's Stance - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, is likely to maintain a cautious stance regarding further interest rate hikes [1] - This cautious approach could be a factor that leads to the potential failure of intervention measures aimed at supporting the yen [1] Group 2: External Influences - Other influencing factors include Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's plans for an early election and indications from Federal Reserve officials suggesting a pause in interest rate cuts [1] - A more explicit opposition to yen depreciation from the Bank of Japan, along with hints of earlier interest rate hikes, could enhance the success of intervention measures [1] Group 3: Market Reaction - The dollar fell by 0.3% to 158.10 yen [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura warns that the rules of intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance regarding the yen are changing, indicating a significant increase in intervention risk as market volatility suggests a shift from verbal warnings to tactical preparations [1] Group 1: Market Behavior and Intervention Signals - The sudden drop in USD/JPY during the UK trading session, without any apparent positive news for the yen, is likely a result of a "Rate Check" by the Ministry of Finance, which often precedes actual intervention [4] - Historical context shows that after a similar "Rate Check" on September 14, 2022, the Japanese government intervened with a substantial amount of 2.8382 trillion yen (approximately $19.8 billion) just eight days later, suggesting that current market movements may signal impending intervention [4] Group 2: Caution Against Overreliance on Indicators - Nomura advises against placing too much faith in the so-called "Kanda Line," a set of intervention warning indicators, as no signals are currently active; however, this does not imply a low risk of intervention [5] - The former Finance Minister Kanda acknowledged that intervention decisions are not based on these indicators in an automated manner, highlighting the need for vigilance [5][6] Group 3: Broader Focus on Currency Pairs - The scope of the Ministry of Finance's intervention may be expanding beyond just USD/JPY, as new foreign exchange affairs chief Mimura indicated that authorities are monitoring various currency pairs, not solely focusing on the dollar-yen relationship [7] - Reports suggest that the Ministry conducted a "Rate Check" on EUR/JPY in July 2024, indicating potential alternative intervention strategies to curb yen weakness without directly purchasing yen [7][8] - Historical interventions by Japan around the year 2000 targeting EUR/JPY suggest that investors should be cautious and not solely focus on USD/JPY, as they may be caught off guard by unexpected actions [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2][4]. - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2][4]. - Copper: The external market is strong while the domestic market is weak, which restricts price increases [2][8]. - Zinc: Trading in a range [2][11]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price [2][14]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2][17]. - Aluminum: Trading in a range; Alumina is bottom - sideways; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][20]. - Platinum: The overseas market is closed, and a correction is to be watched out for [2][22]. - Palladium: Investment sentiment has shifted, and a large - scale decline is expected [2][23]. - Nickel: There is capital game on the market, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [2][27]. - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and there are disturbances from news about Indonesian nickel mines [2][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2602 showed varying degrees of increase, with daily increases of 1.34%, 1.44%, and 0.77% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 decreased by 2,375, while that of Comex Gold 2602 increased by 42,965 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1,995 kilograms, and Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 114,168 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy; the Beijing property market has new policies; the US employment market has warmed up [4]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2602 all rose, with daily increases of 1.50%, 1.52%, and 3.65% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased by 474,555 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 1,805 kilograms, and Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) decreased by 3,083,409 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, and the Silver LOF hit the daily limit again during the session [4][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 2.31%, and the LME Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.65%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index increased by 297,908, and the LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 8,111 [8]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai copper inventory increased by 2,679 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1,550 tons [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The People's Bank of China's policy, Beijing's property market policy, and the US employment market situation; Glencore acquired a copper project in Peru; Peru extended the temporary licenses of small - scale miners; Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased; China's copper ore imports increased [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.61%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 0.60%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 37,673, and the LME Zinc trading volume increased by 2,888 [11]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc inventory increased by 1,068 tons, and LME zinc inventory increased by 7,900 tons [11]. - **News**: The People's Bank of China's policy and hints from the US Treasury Secretary about the Fed's future direction [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 1.35%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.66%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 23,412, and the LME Lead trading volume increased by 2,053 [14]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 152 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 4,200 tons [14]. - **News**: Similar to copper, including the People's Bank of China's policy, Beijing's property market policy, and the US employment market situation [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 1.27%, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 0.25%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 11,222, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 [17]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai tin inventory increased by 655 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 50 tons [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold and silver, and France passed a short - term budget to avoid a government shutdown [17][18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 22,330 yuan/ton, and the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,957 US dollars/ton. The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 85,119. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,554 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inventory and Cost**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory increased. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5,823.24 yuan/ton [20]. - **News**: The US dollar may have its worst year since 2003, and the Japanese finance minister hinted at possible intervention in the yen [21]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of platinum and palladium futures showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum and NYMEX Platinum decreased, while the trading volume of NYMEX Palladium increased [23]. - **Inventory and ETF**: The platinum ETF inventory increased by 5,271 ounces, and the palladium ETF inventory decreased by 384 ounces [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: News about international relations and China's central bank's policy [25][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless - steel main contract was 13,075 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 1,095,331 [28]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mining area was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for Russian copper and nickel imports, and Indonesia implemented sanctions on mining companies and adjusted policies related to nickel mines [28][29][31].

Group 1 - The current environment presents a "strong intervention backdrop," increasing the likelihood of the Japanese government successfully preventing yen depreciation compared to usual circumstances [1][3] - The rationale for intervention is clear: year-end market liquidity shortages provide an opportunity, and market participants are struggling to justify current price levels, indicating a higher chance of successful intervention [1][3] - Long-term interest rate differentials and volatility indicators suggest that the euro/yen and dollar/yen exchange rates should have peaked by the end of 2023; however, both pairs have continued to rise, with euro/yen reaching a record high near 184 and dollar/yen hovering around 162 [1][3] Group 2 - There has been a dramatic decoupling of dollar/yen and euro/yen exchange rates from interest rate differentials since spring, described as a disorderly state [2][4] - Intervention is expected to curb the upward momentum of dollar/yen and euro/yen, but the likelihood of a significant reversal in the yen's weakening trend is low due to generally weak Asian currencies and ongoing concerns about economic growth and an aging population [2][4] - A correction similar to the one seen in 2014 after the sharp rise in dollar/yen and euro/yen is still possible; in the long term, this could pull dollar/yen back to the 140 level and euro/yen down to the 160 level [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The risk of intervention to support the yen is increasing during the quiet Christmas period, as the yen has fallen to a near four-week low against the dollar despite the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike and indications of further increases [1] Group 1 - Derek Halpenny from MUFG Bank highlights that the Bank of Japan has failed to provide clearer guidance on its neutral interest rate level, which is perceived as neither stimulating nor slowing growth, leading to disappointment among some market participants [1] - Another factor potentially pressuring the yen is the market's perception of a lack of urgency for further interest rate hikes [1] - According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the dollar has risen by 1% to a peak of 157.12 yen [1]