1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft can help identify future key focus areas. The Sino - US trade talks in Kuala Lumpur reached a phased consensus, which will reduce the impact of tariff policies on the market and improve market risk appetite [2]. - It is expected that the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. Enterprises are advised to conduct exchange - rate risk management [4]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term as the Fed's rate - cut expectation has cooled, but there is support below [5]. - For treasury bonds, a long - term bullish view is maintained, and mid - term long positions should be held [6]. - The short - term bullish trend of container shipping futures on the European line will continue, but the widening basis between futures and spot prices increases volatility risk [10]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase. In the long - term, the price center of gravity is expected to rise, and investors can look for mid - term buying opportunities on dips [15]. - Copper prices are under pressure from the rising US dollar index, but there is support below. Aluminum prices are expected to be in an upward channel in the long - term, while alumina prices may be weak in the short - term [17][18]. - Zinc prices are expected to be in a strong and volatile state, and tin prices have sufficient bottom support [20][21]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to be in a volatile and strong state, while industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be in a wide - range volatile state [23][25]. - Lead prices are expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short - term [26]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, challenging previous lows [28]. - Coking coal and coke are suitable as long - positions in the black market, and their prices are expected to rise [30]. - Ferroalloys are expected to be in a volatile state, with high inventory and weak demand [31]. - Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars this week, with limited upward or downward breakthrough potential [35]. - LPG is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, with limited fundamental support [37]. - PX - PTA is expected to be in a strong and volatile state along with the cost side, but the oversupply expectation of PTA still exists [40]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state, and a short - selling strategy is recommended on rallies [44]. - Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and it is recommended to hold previous short - call positions [46]. - PP and PE are in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and their prices are expected to be weak [49][51]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be weak and prone to decline, and short - selling opportunities after rallies are recommended [53][54]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be weak, and profit - taking is recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals have improved [55][57]. - Asphalt is in a weak state. Short - term waiting or short - selling on rallies is recommended [59]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber are expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state, with support below but no strong upward drivers [62]. - Urea is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, facing pressure due to weak domestic demand [63]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, soda ash is expected to be weak, glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract, and caustic soda's market pressure is increasing [64][66][67]. - Pulp and offset paper are expected to be in a relatively volatile state in the short - term [68]. - Logs are in a weak state, and short - selling on rallies and 01 - 03 reverse arbitrage opportunities are recommended [69][70]. - Propylene is expected to be in a weak state, with an overall loose supply situation [72]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: US employment data exceeded market expectations. The "15th Five - Year Plan" draft was released, and the Sino - US trade talks reached a phased consensus. The US government has been shut down for 36 days [1][2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: It is expected that the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will operate in the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, with a potentially stronger overall trend. Enterprises are advised to conduct exchange - rate risk management [4]. - **Stock Index**: The Fed's rate - cut expectation has cooled, and the stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A long - term bullish view is maintained, and mid - term long positions should be held [6]. - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The short - term bullish trend will continue, but the widening basis between futures and spot prices increases volatility risk [10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: They are in a short - term adjustment phase. In the long - term, the price center of gravity is expected to rise, and investors can look for mid - term buying opportunities on dips [15]. - **Copper**: Copper prices are under pressure from the rising US dollar index, but there is support below. Some downstream orders have improved [17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum prices are expected to be in an upward channel in the long - term, while alumina prices may be weak in the short - term. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum prices [18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be in a strong and volatile state, with support at the bottom in November [20]. - **Tin**: It has sufficient bottom support, and a long - term bullish view is maintained [21]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is expected to be in a volatile and strong state, with a relatively stable supply increment and strong demand in November [23]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has a supply reduction expectation, and polysilicon's fundamentals are still weak [25]. - **Lead**: It is expected to be in a high - level volatile state in the short - term due to supply disturbances [26]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to be in a weak and volatile state, challenging previous lows. The anti - dumping investigation on hot - rolled coils may affect far - month contracts [28]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are suitable as long - positions in the black market, and their prices are expected to rise due to downstream replenishment and supply restrictions [30]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are in a state of high inventory and weak demand, and are expected to be in a volatile state [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to oscillate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars this week, with limited upward or downward breakthrough potential [35]. - **LPG**: It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, with limited fundamental support [37]. - **PTA - PX**: It is expected to be in a strong and volatile state along with the cost side, but the oversupply expectation of PTA still exists [40]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state, and a short - selling strategy is recommended on rallies [44]. - **Methanol**: Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and it is recommended to hold previous short - call positions [46]. - **PP and PE**: They are in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and their prices are expected to be weak [49][51]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are expected to be weak and prone to decline, and short - selling opportunities after rallies are recommended [53][54]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to be weak, and profit - taking is recommended. Low - sulfur fuel oil's fundamentals have improved [55][57]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a weak state. Short - term waiting or short - selling on rallies is recommended [59]. - **Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: They are expected to be in a range - bound and volatile state, with support below but no strong upward drivers [62]. - **Urea**: It is expected to be in a weak and volatile state, facing pressure due to weak domestic demand [63]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is expected to be weak, glass may decline towards the end of the 01 contract, and caustic soda's market pressure is increasing [64][66][67]. - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: They are expected to be in a relatively volatile state in the short - term [68]. - **Logs**: They are in a weak state, and short - selling on rallies and 01 - 03 reverse arbitrage opportunities are recommended [69][70]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to be in a weak state, with an overall loose supply situation [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate returning to the "6 era" within the year is still low, but it has increased compared to the previous expectation. The operating range is likely to be between 6.90 - 7.25, with the core fluctuation range more concentrated between 7.00 - 7.20. The overall appreciation space is relatively limited, but the depreciation momentum is accumulating [1]. - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate in Q4 2025 may have potential conditions for upward - fluctuating, but the actual increase depends on the central bank's policy attitude and regulatory signals, as well as the verification of the Chinese economy [2][19]. - The potential capital inflow can provide phased support for the RMB, but its sustainability and actual impact scale should not be linearly extrapolated. The Q4 2025 operating environment of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will probably be in the cycle combination of "loose money and weak broad credit", which provides a core operating basis for "slowing down the appreciation rhythm" [3]. - The US dollar index is expected to be volatile and weak, with an operating range of 95 - 102 [6]. - The potential "US dollar settlement wave" has increased the probability of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate falling to the "6 era" within the year, although its formation is still restricted by multiple factors [7][90]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - **Strategy Suggestions** - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the expected increase in the volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate in Q4 compared to Q3 but still in a historically low range, a short straddle option strategy can be adopted, selling both out - of - the - money call and put options [1]. - **Hedging Strategy** - **For Purchasing Foreign Exchange**: Prioritize forward exchange locking. Start at the low - middle level (7.00 - 7.10) of the core exchange rate range, and lock 60% - 80% of the positions in batches. If the exchange rate briefly falls to 6.90 - 7.00, an additional 20% - 30% can be locked. For those with non - fixed payment cycles, a combination of "forward exchange locking + optional transaction" can be used [1]. - **For Settling Foreign Exchange**: Anchor at the upper limit of the range. When the exchange rate reaches 7.18 - 7.20, settle 30% - 40% of the US dollars. If it breaks through 7.20, an additional 20% - 30% can be settled [1]. 3.2 Market Conditions and Core Concerns 3.2.1 Market Volatility Conditions - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate maintained a low - volatility operation in Q3 2025. Whether it can increase volatility in Q4 depends on factors such as macro - narrative changes, market trading volume, and the central bank's policy [10][19]. - **Macro - Narrative Perspective**: The shift from low - to high - volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is related to major macro - narrative changes, following a cycle of "narrative turning - divergence intensifying - volatility rising - cognition converging - volatility converging - new narrative starting". The next potential macro - narrative that may drive volatility is the "Fed's monetary policy shift (substantial and high - rhythm interest rate cuts)" [20]. - **Market Driving Force Perspective**: The inquiry trading volume of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is positively correlated with its implied volatility. An increase in trading volume may indicate an increase in volatility. Currently, the three indicators (offshore - onshore spread, risk - reversal option, and RMB non - deliverable forward) show relatively stable market expectations for the RMB's appreciation and depreciation. If the trading volume remains above $35 billion, the market may accumulate upward volatility momentum [22][31]. - **Central Bank's Policy Perspective**: The central bank's exchange - rate management in Q4 focuses on the "dynamic balance between enhancing flexibility and preventing risks". It will adopt a "discretionary" approach, adjusting policy tools according to market dynamics. The RMB exchange rate is difficult to form a smooth appreciation or depreciation trend [34][38]. 3.2.2 Stock - Exchange Linkage - The stock market and the foreign - exchange market are related through capital flow and market expectation. The recent "residential deposit migration" to the stock market has provided incremental funds for the A - share market, which is driven by the decline in bank deposit interest rates and the increase in the attractiveness of equity assets [43][49]. - However, the "residential deposit/ total market value" chart has three core flaws and cannot be used as direct evidence of "residential deposit migration". The potential capital inflow can provide phased support for the RMB, but its sustainability and scale depend on the long - term investment attractiveness of the stock market and the domestic economic fundamentals [53][55]. - The Q4 2025 operating environment of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is likely to be in the cycle of "loose money supply and weak credit expansion", with the appreciation rhythm slowing down. The probability of the RMB forming a trend - based appreciation against the US dollar within the year is still low, but the probability of the RMB exchange rate returning to the "6 era" has increased [63][64]. 3.2.3 External Weak US Dollar Environment - The Fed's interest - rate cut amplitude and rhythm depend on the evolution path of the US economic fundamentals. The September 2025 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut and the weak non - farm employment data have made the issue of "whether the US economy is facing a recession" a key concern [66]. - **Economic Level**: The current US employment market has slowed down but not stalled. Inflation pressure and real - estate market risks restrict the Fed from implementing substantial interest - rate cuts within the year [71][72]. - **Policy Level**: Politically, the short - term policy is likely to remain on the "gradual adjustment" track. If the Fed's independence is interfered with, it may lead to more and larger - scale interest - rate cuts. Overall, the US dollar index is expected to operate in the range of 95 - 102 [73][76]. 3.2.4 US Dollar Settlement Wave - The formation of the US dollar settlement wave has a solid capital foundation, but it also depends on the effective cooperation of enterprise settlement willingness. The factors affecting the RMB exchange rate returning to the "6 era" include the central bank's exchange - rate intermediate - price control, the attractiveness of the domestic equity market, the trend of the US dollar index, and the behavior of enterprises in foreign - exchange transactions [7][85]. 3.3 Q4 Exchange - Rate Trend Judgment - **Benchmark Scenario**: In the context of the Fed's cautious interest - rate cut and the weak recovery of the domestic economy, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7.00 - 7.20, with the depreciation momentum gradually accumulating. There are uncertainties in the domestic economic recovery process and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm [91]. - **Upward Risk**: Factors such as the unexpected rebound of US inflation, strong US economic data, a change in global risk preference, and uncertainties in the domestic economic recovery may cause the RMB to face short - term depreciation pressure and may briefly break through the 7.20 mark [91][92]. - **Downward Risk**: If the US inflation continues to fall, the domestic economic recovery exceeds expectations, and domestic policies are actively implemented, the RMB may appreciate, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate may fall below 7.0 [92]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In a low - volatility environment, a short straddle option strategy can be adopted, selling both out - of - the - money call and put options. Attention can also be paid to volatility surface arbitrage opportunities, such as constructing a position of "selling near - month straddle combinations + buying far - month straddle combinations" when the near - month implied volatility is significantly higher than the far - month [94]. - **Hedging Strategy** - **For Purchasing Foreign Exchange**: Prioritize forward exchange locking. Start at the low - middle level (7.00 - 7.10) of the core exchange - rate range, and lock 60% - 80% of the positions in batches. For those with non - fixed payment cycles, a combination of "forward exchange locking + optional transaction" can be used [95]. - **For Settling Foreign Exchange**: Anchor at the upper limit of the range. When the exchange rate reaches 7.18 - 7.20, settle 30% - 40% of the US dollars. If it breaks through 7.20, an additional 20% - 30% can be settled, leaving 20% - 30% for subsequent fluctuations [96]. - **Common Risk Warnings** - Avoid excessive speculation and adhere to the "risk - neutral" principle, with the hedging scale matching the actual trade volume [97]. - Dynamically track policies and the market. Adjust hedging positions in time if the USD/CNY spot exchange rate breaks through 7.25 or falls below 7.0 [99]. - Select appropriate tools. Small and medium - sized enterprises should give priority to simple tools such as forwards and options, while large enterprises can combine futures and other tools to optimize strategies but need to be equipped with a professional foreign - exchange management team [99].