会议后公布的经济预测显示，共有六名官员反对本次降息，其中包括两名具有投票权的FOMC成员。纪 要显示，这些反对意见主要集中在对通胀回落进展的判断上。 美联储12月会议纪要披露，最新一次降息并非建立在广泛共识之上。 当地时间12月29日，美联储12月政策会议纪要显示，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）在决定降息前，对 美国经济面临的通胀与就业风险进行了较为充分的讨论。尽管委员会最终同意将联邦基金利率目标区间 下调25个基点，但会议记录表明，决策并非建立在广泛共识之上，多名官员对降息的必要性和时点持保 留意见，政策分歧有所扩大。 降息并非共识 纪要显示，12月9日至10日的货币政策会议上，美联储是在综合评估经济前景和风险分布后，同意将政 策利率下调至3.5%至3.75%。不过，即便是部分支持降息的官员，也认为这一决定"处于权衡之中"，他 们在不同情境下"本可以支持维持目标区间不变"。 支持降息的官员认为，近期新增就业放缓、失业率有所上升，表明劳动力市场下行风险自年中以来有所 增加。在这一背景下，适度放松政策有助于降低就业市场进一步走弱的可能性。纪要称，多数与会者最 终接受了这一判断，将降息视为一种前瞻性的风险管理举措 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant increase, rising 2.23% on August 1, reaching a one-week high of $3363.37 per ounce, primarily driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm employment data and heightened demand for safe-haven assets due to new tariff policies from the Trump administration [1][3] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.39% to 98.68 on August 1, marking the largest single-day drop since April, which reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold and further supported its price increase [1][3] - The U.S. labor market showed signs of deterioration, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% [3][4] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September surged from 38% to 90% following the disappointing employment report, with projections indicating two rate cuts by the end of the year [3][4] Political and Economic Context - President Trump imposed high tariffs on products from Canada, Brazil, and India, with rates reaching up to 50%, which led to a global stock market decline and increased market volatility [4][5] - The political fallout from the employment data included Trump's dismissal of a labor department official, raising concerns about the integrity of U.S. economic statistics [4][5] - The resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Kugler added to the uncertainty, as it opened a potential opportunity for Trump to reshape the Fed's leadership [5][6] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.6%, marking its largest drop in two months, while the yield curve inverted, indicating investor skepticism about traditional economic indicators [5][6] - The combination of weak employment data and political instability has led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, providing new buying support in the market [6]

Core Insights - In May, foreign investors net purchased $146.3 billion in U.S. Treasury securities, a significant increase from the previous month's net selling of $40.8 billion [1] Group 1 - The net foreign investment in U.S. Treasury securities indicates a strong demand for U.S. debt instruments [1] - The reversal from negative to positive net purchases suggests a shift in investor sentiment towards U.S. government bonds [1] - This influx of capital may reflect confidence in the U.S. economy and its financial stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - In March, foreign net purchases of U.S. Treasury bonds reached $123.3 billion, an increase from the previous value of $106.2 billion [1] Group 1 - The increase in foreign net purchases indicates a growing confidence among international investors in U.S. government securities [1] - The significant rise from the previous month suggests a potential shift in investment strategies among foreign entities [1]

Group 1 - Rick Patel emphasizes the importance of maintaining an active, agile, and diversified investment strategy in the face of market challenges, particularly through defensive allocations to sustain yield buffers, with short-term bonds being an attractive option [1] - The U.S. Treasury yields have shown fluctuations, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising approximately 10 basis points from early April but remaining about 50 basis points lower than the peak in January [1] - The future economic slowdown will largely depend on how U.S. companies respond to tariff pressures, either by compressing profits to absorb costs or passing on price increases [1] Group 2 - The labor market in the U.S. is expected to see job growth primarily in healthcare and government sectors, but there are signs of declining temporary employment in healthcare and challenges in the government sector that may pressure employment data [2] - Given expectations of structural growth and inflation easing, the current federal funds rate of 4.25% appears too high, with the Federal Reserve showing reluctance to cut rates without specific catalysts [2] Group 3 - In a downside risk scenario, if a recession leads to significant unemployment, the Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive rate cuts than the market anticipates, potentially lowering the federal funds rate below 2% [3] - The current market prices do not reflect the potential for a severe economic downturn, which could significantly impact small businesses facing high borrowing costs [3]