Core Insights - Taiwanese investors have poured approximately $73 billion into U.S. bond ETFs over the past few years, but are now facing significant losses of up to 12% in May due to a combination of a strong TWD and declining U.S. bonds [1][2] - The Economist's semi-annual Big Mac Index indicates that the TWD is undervalued by 58.8% against the USD, the most significant undervaluation among 58 currencies assessed [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Despite the warning signs, Taiwanese investors have continued to invest heavily in overseas assets, expecting the TWD to depreciate further [2] - The largest and oldest industry ETF, Yuanta 20-Year Plus U.S. Treasury ETF, has seen its market value shrink by 13% since early April, with losses since the Fed began raising interest rates amounting to nearly one-third since its inception in 2017 [2] Group 2: ETF Market Dynamics - Taiwan has a relatively large ETF market, with $196 billion in assets as of the end of 2024, accounting for 66% of total investment fund assets, equating to an average of nearly $8,400 per person in ETFs, with a significant portion in bond ETFs [3] - Regulatory attempts to curb the "Formosa bonds" market led to the development of a "Formosa ETF" ecosystem, allowing local investors to bypass holding limits while primarily investing in U.S. bonds [3] Group 3: Redemption Trends - Taiwanese investors began withdrawing funds from bond ETFs in February and March, with net outflows of $1.1 billion, indicating a trend of redemption prior to significant fluctuations in the TWD [4] - The redemption trend accelerated in April, with net redemptions reaching $817 million, up from $504 million in March and $192 million in February, resulting in total assets dropping to $7.8 billion from a peak of $9.4 billion at the end of April [4] - Despite recent losses and redemptions, the total assets in Taiwanese U.S. bond ETFs remain ten times the size from early 2019, suggesting substantial risk if further withdrawals occur [4]

美国3月外资净买入美国公债 1233亿美元，前值1062亿美元。 ...

富达国际基金经理Rick Patel近日针对美国信用债市场发表评论。未来存在许多未知因素，市场波动可 能持续随关税情势变化。面对挑战重重的市场环境，保持主动、敏捷且分散的投资布局至关重要，尤其 需要通过防御配置维持收益缓冲，目前具吸引收益率的短期债券是不错的选择。通过策略性美元债券资 产配置，未来仍有机会创造超额报酬，延续年初以来及"解放日"之后相对强劲表现。 Rick Patel表示，尽管美国公债收益率近来起伏震荡，整体走势仍相对稳定。4月底，美国10年期公债收 益率较4月初高出约10个基点，但仍较今年1月高点低了约50个基点。同样的，30年期公债收益率4月累 积上涨约20个基点，但年初至今则为持平。过去数十年来，美国依赖外资融通其双赤字，但如今美国身 处关税风暴核心，全球投资者因为不确定性升高且美国经济放缓机率增加，开始期待更高报酬才愿意投 资美国公债。 Rick Patel认为，鉴于各界预期未来结构性成长与通胀都将趋缓，目前联邦基金利率4.25%显得过高。联 准会最近发言似乎没有意愿降息，有待特定催化因素才会采取行动。劳动市场恶化可能发挥催化作用， 因联准会希望能确保落实其双重政策目标，而就业极大化正是 ...