Core Viewpoint - Eurozone countries are set to issue more short-term bonds as the appeal of long-term debt diminishes [1] Group 1 - The shift towards short-term bonds indicates a changing investor sentiment regarding long-term debt instruments [1] - This trend may reflect concerns over interest rate fluctuations and economic uncertainty within the Eurozone [1] - Increased issuance of short-term bonds could lead to a more volatile debt market as investors seek liquidity [1]

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income, Rick Ried, believes that the stock market currently presents more opportunities than the long end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve [1] Group 1 - From a yield perspective, short-term bonds are considered more attractive [1] - The correlation between long-term bonds and stock market trends is increasing, diminishing their hedging effectiveness [1] - Given this context, the expected return on stocks makes them a more appealing asset in investment portfolios [1]

Group 1: Euro and Currency Analysis - The euro is expected to appreciate in the long term, with analysts suggesting that this structural change may last longer than anticipated [1] - Deutsche Bank has revised its forecast for the euro to rise to 1.20 against the dollar by December and further to 1.30 by the end of 2027 [1] Group 2: Japanese Investment Trends - In April, Japanese pension funds purchased a record amount of foreign stocks, totaling 2.76 trillion yen (approximately 189 billion USD) [2] - Japanese investors net bought 2.12 trillion yen of U.S. stocks in March, marking the highest level since 2005 [2] Group 3: U.S. Treasury Yield Outlook - Goldman Sachs maintains a core view that short-term U.S. Treasury yields will decline, but warns of potential upward pressure on yields if economic data does not support rate cut expectations [2] - Citigroup suggests that the recent rise in global short-term bond yields may be losing momentum, with several factors potentially hindering the bond market [2] Group 4: Gold Price Forecast - JPMorgan predicts that gold prices could reach 6,000 USD per ounce by 2029, representing an 80% increase from current levels of approximately 3,300 USD [3] - The forecast is driven by a combination of U.S. policy changes leading to asset reallocations towards gold and limited increases in gold supply [3] Group 5: India-Pakistan Market Dynamics - The recent ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan is viewed positively, with expectations of a rebound in risk assets for both countries [3] - A technical analysis indicates that if the USD/INR exchange rate breaks below the 200-day moving average support level of approximately 85.03, it would signal a positive trend [3]

花旗：全球短期债券收益率涨势可能放缓 金十数据5月12日讯，花旗研究利率策略师在一份报告中表示，全球短期债券收益率此前的上涨行情可 能正在失去动能，至少短期内将出现短暂喘息。目前仍存在一些不利于债市的因素，包括美英之间达成 的首份贸易协议、英国央行上周会议上的投票分歧，以及美联储表现出的观望立场。此外，中美贸易谈 判也取得了实质性进展。 ...

Group 1 - Rick Patel emphasizes the importance of maintaining an active, agile, and diversified investment strategy in the face of market challenges, particularly through defensive allocations to sustain yield buffers, with short-term bonds being an attractive option [1] - The U.S. Treasury yields have shown fluctuations, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising approximately 10 basis points from early April but remaining about 50 basis points lower than the peak in January [1] - The future economic slowdown will largely depend on how U.S. companies respond to tariff pressures, either by compressing profits to absorb costs or passing on price increases [1] Group 2 - The labor market in the U.S. is expected to see job growth primarily in healthcare and government sectors, but there are signs of declining temporary employment in healthcare and challenges in the government sector that may pressure employment data [2] - Given expectations of structural growth and inflation easing, the current federal funds rate of 4.25% appears too high, with the Federal Reserve showing reluctance to cut rates without specific catalysts [2] Group 3 - In a downside risk scenario, if a recession leads to significant unemployment, the Federal Reserve may need to implement more aggressive rate cuts than the market anticipates, potentially lowering the federal funds rate below 2% [3] - The current market prices do not reflect the potential for a severe economic downturn, which could significantly impact small businesses facing high borrowing costs [3]