所有人都注意到了，人民币近期很强势。 这个时候，很多专家出来发表观点是百家争鸣的好事；但是，有些人无底线地带节奏就不对了。 你们记住，无论人民币将来最终的结局如何，影响的始终是老百姓，而高高在上的"专家"几乎不会受到任何冲击， 人民币的温和升值，与国内扩大内需战略形成良性呼应，让进口成本下降的红利逐步传导至民生消费。 这当然无可厚非。 但是，你们要注意了，一些国内外专家鼓吹人民币应大幅升值50%，甚至到6、5乃至4的水平，这就有点"带节奏"的嫌疑了。 人民币适度升值的核心价值，在于通过降低进口成本，为国内消费市场释放更多可支配收入，拉动内需。 众所周知，中国是全球最大原油进口国，前11个月进口5.2187亿吨，同比增长3.2%。中国战略储备显著提升，结合商业库存，覆盖消费天数远超国际能源署 90天标准，估算达120—180天。 面对俄乌冲突、美国对委内瑞拉升级封锁的局势。人民币的温和升值，使得原油进口成本有效降低，极大地保障了能源安全。 此外，你们可能没注意到，化纤原料作为原油衍生品，原油进口成本的下降也让服装、家纺等日用品价格更具弹性，普通家庭的衣着消费压力进一步减轻。 除此之外，进口大豆也有异曲同工之妙。 ...

Core Insights - Taiwanese investors have poured approximately $73 billion into U.S. bond ETFs over the past few years, but are now facing significant losses of up to 12% in May due to a combination of a strong TWD and declining U.S. bonds [1][2] - The Economist's semi-annual Big Mac Index indicates that the TWD is undervalued by 58.8% against the USD, the most significant undervaluation among 58 currencies assessed [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Despite the warning signs, Taiwanese investors have continued to invest heavily in overseas assets, expecting the TWD to depreciate further [2] - The largest and oldest industry ETF, Yuanta 20-Year Plus U.S. Treasury ETF, has seen its market value shrink by 13% since early April, with losses since the Fed began raising interest rates amounting to nearly one-third since its inception in 2017 [2] Group 2: ETF Market Dynamics - Taiwan has a relatively large ETF market, with $196 billion in assets as of the end of 2024, accounting for 66% of total investment fund assets, equating to an average of nearly $8,400 per person in ETFs, with a significant portion in bond ETFs [3] - Regulatory attempts to curb the "Formosa bonds" market led to the development of a "Formosa ETF" ecosystem, allowing local investors to bypass holding limits while primarily investing in U.S. bonds [3] Group 3: Redemption Trends - Taiwanese investors began withdrawing funds from bond ETFs in February and March, with net outflows of $1.1 billion, indicating a trend of redemption prior to significant fluctuations in the TWD [4] - The redemption trend accelerated in April, with net redemptions reaching $817 million, up from $504 million in March and $192 million in February, resulting in total assets dropping to $7.8 billion from a peak of $9.4 billion at the end of April [4] - Despite recent losses and redemptions, the total assets in Taiwanese U.S. bond ETFs remain ten times the size from early 2019, suggesting substantial risk if further withdrawals occur [4]