智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，当前i茅台改革正逐步释放其效用，线上持续强化消费触 达，线下普茅理性回归消费属性释放需求，飞天流速明显快于同期，元旦后批价温和上涨，前一周散飞 触及1600元，引发渠道缺货恐慌，当日暴涨150元，周末虽有回落，但预计节前1600元支撑较足，量价 表现均超预期。i茅台贡献额外飞天增量，预计增量或在20%左右，考虑i茅台改革后有效增强消费者触 达，且吨价略有提升，判断春节普飞量价齐升下贡献收入增量。 近期走访调研多地渠道，发现1月以来白酒春节备货及动销逐步启动，多数渠道反馈1月至今总体出货量 还是有双位数下滑，但不同区域和品牌分化明显。分区域看，经济基础较好、饮酒氛围较好的华东、河 南等市场反馈动销下滑10%附近，山东/湖南等省份反馈下滑幅度在双位数以上。分价格带看，茅台飞 天动销实现逆势增长表现亮眼，五粮液/老窖/汾酒不同区域表现分化，大众价位动销下滑10%+，而次高 端承压仍明显，动销下滑在20%以上。具体来看： 华创证券主要观点如下： 茅台改革成果显现，量价均超预期 当前i茅台改革正逐步释放其效用，线上持续强化消费触达，线下普茅理性回归消费属性释放需求，飞 天流速明显 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for key companies in the liquor sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as for dairy companies like Yili [10][24][23] Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a clear bottoming out, with a notable decline in participation at the recent autumn sugar and liquor fair, reflecting a cautious sentiment among distributors and a shift in focus towards direct consumer engagement [8][22][23] - The food and beverage sector is witnessing a divergence in performance, with the beverage segment showing strong inventory reduction effects during the holiday period, particularly for leading brands like Nongfu Spring and Dongpeng [9][22][23] - The report highlights that high-end liquor and mass consumer products are performing relatively well, with Moutai's price stabilizing around 1800 RMB, leading to increased consumption during the holiday season [3][15][22] Summary by Sections Sugar and Liquor Fair Research Summary - The autumn sugar and liquor fair saw a decrease in participating companies and investor engagement, indicating a lower overall enthusiasm in the industry [8][13] - Major liquor brands are showing resilience despite a general decline in sales during the holiday season, with top brands experiencing a smaller drop compared to the industry average [8][13] Recent Channel Feedback - Feedback from distributors indicates a significant drop in sales for various brands, with Moutai and Wuliangye seeing declines of approximately 10% and 15% respectively [16][17] - The report notes that the overall sentiment in the liquor market is cautious, with distributors preferring to manage inventory levels carefully [8][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as emerging brands like Zhenjiu Lidu and Yingjia Gongjiu, which are expected to contribute positively to the market [22][23] - In the food sector, it recommends continuing to invest in snack and beverage segments, while keeping an eye on structural opportunities in the dairy sector [22][23]