1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the market is influenced by cost support and macro - policy promotion on the positive side, while facing weak demand on the negative side. For PP, similar factors are at play, with cost support and macro - policy driving growth, but also suffering from weak demand [4][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, back above the critical point. On July 14, the US threatened to impose secondary sanctions on Russian crude oil within 50 days. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a growth - stabilization plan for key industries including the petrochemical sector. In the supply - demand aspect, it's the off - season for agricultural films, and the packaging film market has slightly improved, with overall weak downstream demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7180 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 36, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.5%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.7 million tons (+3.3), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. Driven by the macro - growth - stabilization plan, with the off - season for agricultural film demand and weak downstream demand, and a neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the growth of the petrochemical industry are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic indicators in June show a certain situation. The supply - demand side is in the off - season for downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7140 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 127, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.8%, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.6 million tons (-1.5), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. Driven by the macro - growth - stabilization plan, with weak downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., and a neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the growth of the petrochemical industry are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7180 (unchanged), the price of the 09 contract is 7216 (unchanged), the basis is - 36 (unchanged), the number of warehouse receipts is 5822 (unchanged), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 58.7 million tons (unchanged), and the PE social inventory is 53.7 million tons (unchanged) [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7140 (unchanged), the price of the 09 contract is 7013 (unchanged), the basis is 127 (unchanged), the number of warehouse receipts is 10083 (unchanged), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 56.6 million tons (unchanged), and the PP social inventory is 25.8 million tons (unchanged) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different growth trends. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also changed. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, considering factors such as macroeconomics, cost, supply - demand, basis, inventory, and market trends. It is expected that both LLDPE and PP will show a volatile and slightly upward trend today [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, showing the first contraction since last October. The geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East led to a short - term strengthening of crude oil, which was positive for the cost side. In terms of supply - demand, it was the off - season for agricultural films, the demand for packaging films was weakening, and the pressure of new capacity commissioning still existed. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products was 7400 (+40), and the overall fundamentals were neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract was - 18, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.2%, which was neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory was 55.6 tons (-1.3), which was neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract was flat, and the closing price was above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract decreased, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract rebounded. With geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, weak downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory, it was expected that PE would show a volatile and slightly upward trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost - side benefits were positive, while new capacity commissioning and weak demand were negative factors. The main logic was the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since last October. The geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East led to a short - term strengthening of crude oil, which was positive for the cost side. The downstream demand was generally weak, especially for pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of PP delivery products was 7300 (+50), and the overall fundamentals were neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract was 86, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.2%, showing a bullish trend [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory was 60.8 tons (+2.6), which was neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract was flat, and the closing price was above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract increased, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract rebounded. With geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, weak downstream demand for plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory, it was expected that PP would show a volatile and slightly upward trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost - side benefits were positive, while weak demand was a negative factor. The main logic was the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [9]. Market Data - **LLDPE Market Data**: The spot price of delivery products was 7400 (+40), the price of the 09 contract was 7418 (+101), the basis was - 18 (-61), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory was 556 (-13) [10]. - **PP Market Data**: The spot price of delivery products was 7300 (+50), the price of the 09 contract was 7214 (+89), the basis was 86 (-39), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory was 608 (+26) [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity was expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity was expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].