1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The LLDPE and PP主力 contracts have strong disk performance, the Iranian situation affects oil prices, the external crude oil is strong, the inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand is recovering [4][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. Trump postponed the ultimatum to attack Iranian power plants, causing a sharp decline in external crude oil prices at night. In terms of supply and demand, the spring plowing has started, and the demand for mulch film is good, but high - priced raw materials have led to a wait - and - see attitude among enterprises for inventory replenishment. The packaging film is mainly based on rigid demand due to price increases, and the start - up rate and orders of the pipe industry are both low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 8850 (+550), and the fundamentals are overall bullish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 673, and the premium/discount ratio is - 7.1%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.3 million tons (- 0.2), which is bearish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract has a strong disk performance. The Iranian situation affects oil prices, the external crude oil is strong, the inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that LLDPE will show a volatile trend today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil [6] - **Negative Factors**: Geopolitical factors [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. Trump postponed the ultimatum to attack Iranian power plants, causing a sharp decline in external crude oil prices at night. In terms of supply and demand, multiple PDH units were shut down for maintenance due to raw material issues. The downstream demand for plastic weaving has increased, but enterprises have low production profit and low willingness to start production. The start - up rate of BOPP has decreased abnormally, and downstream customers are resistant to high - priced raw materials. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 9350 (+600), and the fundamentals are overall bullish [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 443, and the premium/discount ratio is - 4.5%, which is bearish [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.6 million tons (- 6.1), which is neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract has a strong disk performance. The Iranian situation affects oil prices, the external crude oil is strong, the inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand is recovering. It is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and significant fluctuations in crude oil [8] - **Negative Factors**: Geopolitical factors and international policy games [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data | Product | Spot Delivery Price (Change) | Main Contract Price (Change) | Basis (Change) | Warehouse Receipt (Change) | Comprehensive Factory Inventory (Change) | Social Inventory (Change) | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | LLDPE | 8850 (+550) | 05 contract: 9523 (+705) | - 673 (- 155) | 6371 (- 30) | 62.3 (0.0) | 61.9 (0.0) | | PP | 9350 (+600) | 05 contract: 9793 (+774) | - 443 (- 174) | 15927 (- 124) | 59.6 (0.0) | 30.7 (0.0) | [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an increasing trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E will increase by 20.5% compared with 2024 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E will increase by 11.0% compared with 2024 [15]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Date: February 27, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Both LLDPE and PP are expected to have a volatile trend today due to cost support from geopolitical factors and weak downstream demand [4][7] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range [4] - Tensions in the Middle East have led to high - level fluctuations in crude oil prices, providing cost support for polyolefins [4] - Trump's new tariff policy may affect product exports [4] - Market demand expectations may increase due to possible stimulus policies during the Two Sessions in March and Sino - US negotiations [4] - Most agricultural film enterprises have not resumed work, packaging film enterprises are gradually resuming work at a low load, and pipe enterprises' resumption of work is restricted by weather [4] Key Data - The spot price of LLDPE delivery product is 6600 (-50) [4] - The basis of LLDPE 2605 contract is -68, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.0%, indicating a bearish signal [4] - PE comprehensive inventory is 62.7 tons (+25.9), neutral [4] - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, neutral [4] - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4] Outlook - The LLDPE main contract is expected to rebound at the opening, with cost support from geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, neutral inventory, and weak downstream demand, so it is expected to be volatile today [4] Factors - Bullish factors: cost support and rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical premiums [6] - Bearish factors: weak downstream demand [6] - Main logic: oversupply, sensitive to marginal changes in supply and demand [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range [7] - Crude oil price fluctuations due to geopolitical factors support polyolefin costs [7] - Trump's new tariff policy may affect product exports [7] - Market demand expectations may increase due to possible stimulus policies during the Two Sessions in March and Sino - US negotiations [7] - The resumption of work in the plastic weaving industry is slow, while the BOPP industry has a relatively fast resumption of work but faces some finished - product inventory pressure [7] Key Data - The spot price of PP delivery product is 6680 (+0) [7] - The basis of PP 2605 contract is 5, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.1%, neutral [7] - PP comprehensive inventory is 74 tons (+34.9), neutral [7] - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, neutral [7] - The net position of the PP main contract is long, and long positions are decreasing, indicating a bullish signal [7] Outlook - The PP main contract is expected to rebound at the opening, with cost support from geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, neutral inventory, and weak downstream demand, so it is expected to be volatile today [7] Factors - Bullish factors: cost support and rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical premiums [8] - Bearish factors: weak downstream demand [8] - Main logic: oversupply, sensitive to marginal changes in supply and demand [8] Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a significant increase of 20.5% expected in 2025E [14] - The import dependence of polyethylene has shown a downward trend in recent years [14] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has been increasing, with an expected increase of 11.0% in 2025E [16] - The import dependence of polypropylene has also shown a downward trend [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today. For LLDPE, the cost is strongly supported due to OPEC's suspension of production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, with neutral industrial inventory. For PP, besides the above factors, PDH device maintenance has increased. However, both LLDPE and PP face weak downstream demand [4][7] 3. Summary by Related Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Affected by geopolitical factors, the crude oil price is strong in the short - term and then falls, driving the polyolefin to fluctuate. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for agricultural and packaging films is weak. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery product is 6750 (-130), and the fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -115, and the premium/discount ratio is -1.7%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 348,000 tons (-31,000), which is bullish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and strong crude oil price are bullish factors, while weak downstream demand year - on - year is a bearish factor. The main logic is oversupply, and supply - demand marginal changes are sensitive [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation is not good, and the production increase is suspended. Affected by geopolitical factors, the polyolefin follows the crude oil price to fluctuate. There are many PDH device maintenance. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for plastic weaving and pipes is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery product is 6690 (-30), and the fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -40, and the premium/discount ratio is -0.6%, which is bearish [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 401,000 tons (-32,000), which is bullish [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and strong crude oil price are bullish factors, while the off - season of downstream demand is a bearish factor. The main logic is oversupply, and supply - demand marginal changes are sensitive [8] Spot and Futures Market Conditions - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6750 (-130), the price of the 05 contract is 6865 (-13), the basis is -115 (-117), the number of warehouse receipts is 9428 (120), etc. [9] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6690 (-30), the price of the 05 contract is 6730 (16), the basis is -40 (-46), the number of warehouse receipts is 17223 (0), etc. [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, etc. showed different trends. For example, the production capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, etc. also changed. The production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence was relatively low and also showed a downward trend in general [16]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to be volatile today, with a weakening futures contract, oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand [4] - The PP market is also expected to be volatile today, with a weakening futures contract, oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand [6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized. The demand for agricultural films is gradually weakening, and the packaging film orders have declined after the peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6320 (+100), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 70, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.1%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 491,000 tons (-32,000), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is weak, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to be volatile today [4] - **Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized, while PDH profits have continued to decline due to the strong propane price. The plastic weaving industry has entered the off - season, and the demand for pipes has decreased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6220 (+40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 46, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.7%, which is bearish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 533,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is weak, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to be volatile today [6] - **Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6320 (+100), the 05 - contract price is 6390 (-18), the basis is - 70, the import price in US dollars is 755 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 6532 (-4), and the import price difference is - 212 (+104). The warehouse receipt is 11,265 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 491,000 tons (-32,000), and the social inventory is 472,000 tons (+3,000) [8] - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6220 (+40), the 05 - contract price is 6266 (-12), the basis is - 46, the import price in US dollars is 750 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 6490 (-4), and the import price difference is - 270 (+44). The warehouse receipt is 14,935 (+3,000), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 533,000 tons (+5,000), and the social inventory is 293,000 tons (-12,000) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 5, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral. The macroeconomic environment shows a decline in manufacturing sentiment, and the long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil has limited support for the cost side of polyolefins. However, factors such as the rebound of oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the staged easing of Sino - US relations have an impact on the market. It is expected that the PE and PP markets will fluctuate today [4][6]. Summary by Directory LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, a 0.8 - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil has limited support for the cost side. The demand in the agricultural film peak season continues, and the start - up rate remains high, while the restocking of other film types is gradually ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6880 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 1, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 46.6 million tons (-9.9), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates on the disk. After the Sino - US summit in Busan and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil, crude oil has rebounded. With the continued demand in the agricultural film peak season and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the staged easing of Sino - US relations; negative factors include weak demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic environment shows a decline in manufacturing sentiment, and the long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil has limited support for the cost side. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 10, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.5 million tons (-4.3), showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract fluctuates on the disk. After the Sino - US summit in Busan and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil, crude oil has rebounded. With the support of downstream peak - season demand and a neutral - to - high industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will fluctuate today [6]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the staged easing of Sino - US relations; negative factors include weak demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6880 (-30), and the price of the 01 contract is 6879 (-9); the spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (0), and the price of the 01 contract is 6560 (-16) [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The LLDPE warehouse receipt is 12675 (0), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 46.6 million tons (0); the PP warehouse receipt is 14569 (0), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 59.5 million tons (0) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different trends. The production capacity growth rate was relatively high in 2020 (17.8%) and 2025E (20.5%). The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also changed. The production capacity growth rate was relatively high in 2020 (15.5%) and 2023 (14.1%). The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 [15].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trend sideways to the upside today due to factors such as the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US negotiations, new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, the continuation of peak-season demand for agricultural films, and neutral industrial inventories [4] - PP is also expected to trend sideways to the upside today, supported by the same factors as LLDPE and the peak-season demand from downstream industries [6] Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium- to long-term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. The peak-season demand for agricultural films continues, with stable production starts, while production starts for other films have declined after inventory replenishment. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7040 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 55, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.8%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 565,000 tons (-15,000), indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US talks [5] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with limited support from crude oil on the cost side. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -27, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, indicating a neutral signal [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 639,000 tons (-40,000), indicating a neutral signal [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US talks [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [7] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.3195 billion tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.906 billion tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the market is influenced by cost support and macro - policy promotion on the positive side, while facing weak demand on the negative side. For PP, similar factors are at play, with cost support and macro - policy driving growth, but also suffering from weak demand [4][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, back above the critical point. On July 14, the US threatened to impose secondary sanctions on Russian crude oil within 50 days. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a growth - stabilization plan for key industries including the petrochemical sector. In the supply - demand aspect, it's the off - season for agricultural films, and the packaging film market has slightly improved, with overall weak downstream demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7180 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 36, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.5%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.7 million tons (+3.3), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. Driven by the macro - growth - stabilization plan, with the off - season for agricultural film demand and weak downstream demand, and a neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the growth of the petrochemical industry are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic indicators in June show a certain situation. The supply - demand side is in the off - season for downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7140 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 127, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.8%, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.6 million tons (-1.5), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. Driven by the macro - growth - stabilization plan, with weak downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., and a neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the growth of the petrochemical industry are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7180 (unchanged), the price of the 09 contract is 7216 (unchanged), the basis is - 36 (unchanged), the number of warehouse receipts is 5822 (unchanged), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 58.7 million tons (unchanged), and the PE social inventory is 53.7 million tons (unchanged) [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7140 (unchanged), the price of the 09 contract is 7013 (unchanged), the basis is 127 (unchanged), the number of warehouse receipts is 10083 (unchanged), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 56.6 million tons (unchanged), and the PP social inventory is 25.8 million tons (unchanged) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different growth trends. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also changed. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, considering factors such as macroeconomics, cost, supply - demand, basis, inventory, and market trends. It is expected that both LLDPE and PP will show a volatile and slightly upward trend today [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, showing the first contraction since last October. The geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East led to a short - term strengthening of crude oil, which was positive for the cost side. In terms of supply - demand, it was the off - season for agricultural films, the demand for packaging films was weakening, and the pressure of new capacity commissioning still existed. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products was 7400 (+40), and the overall fundamentals were neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract was - 18, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.2%, which was neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory was 55.6 tons (-1.3), which was neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract was flat, and the closing price was above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract decreased, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract rebounded. With geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, weak downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory, it was expected that PE would show a volatile and slightly upward trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost - side benefits were positive, while new capacity commissioning and weak demand were negative factors. The main logic was the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since last October. The geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East led to a short - term strengthening of crude oil, which was positive for the cost side. The downstream demand was generally weak, especially for pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of PP delivery products was 7300 (+50), and the overall fundamentals were neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract was 86, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.2%, showing a bullish trend [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory was 60.8 tons (+2.6), which was neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract was flat, and the closing price was above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract increased, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract rebounded. With geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, weak downstream demand for plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory, it was expected that PP would show a volatile and slightly upward trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost - side benefits were positive, while weak demand was a negative factor. The main logic was the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [9]. Market Data - **LLDPE Market Data**: The spot price of delivery products was 7400 (+40), the price of the 09 contract was 7418 (+101), the basis was - 18 (-61), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory was 556 (-13) [10]. - **PP Market Data**: The spot price of delivery products was 7300 (+50), the price of the 09 contract was 7214 (+89), the basis was 86 (-39), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory was 608 (+26) [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity was expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity was expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].