Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 5, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral. The macroeconomic environment shows a decline in manufacturing sentiment, and the long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil has limited support for the cost side of polyolefins. However, factors such as the rebound of oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the staged easing of Sino - US relations have an impact on the market. It is expected that the PE and PP markets will fluctuate today [4][6]. Summary by Directory LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, a 0.8 - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil has limited support for the cost side. The demand in the agricultural film peak season continues, and the start - up rate remains high, while the restocking of other film types is gradually ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6880 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 1, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 46.6 million tons (-9.9), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates on the disk. After the Sino - US summit in Busan and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil, crude oil has rebounded. With the continued demand in the agricultural film peak season and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the staged easing of Sino - US relations; negative factors include weak demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic environment shows a decline in manufacturing sentiment, and the long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil has limited support for the cost side. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 10, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.5 million tons (-4.3), showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract fluctuates on the disk. After the Sino - US summit in Busan and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil, crude oil has rebounded. With the support of downstream peak - season demand and a neutral - to - high industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will fluctuate today [6]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the staged easing of Sino - US relations; negative factors include weak demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6880 (-30), and the price of the 01 contract is 6879 (-9); the spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (0), and the price of the 01 contract is 6560 (-16) [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The LLDPE warehouse receipt is 12675 (0), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 46.6 million tons (0); the PP warehouse receipt is 14569 (0), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 59.5 million tons (0) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different trends. The production capacity growth rate was relatively high in 2020 (17.8%) and 2025E (20.5%). The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also changed. The production capacity growth rate was relatively high in 2020 (15.5%) and 2023 (14.1%). The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 [15].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trend sideways to the upside today due to factors such as the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US negotiations, new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, the continuation of peak-season demand for agricultural films, and neutral industrial inventories [4] - PP is also expected to trend sideways to the upside today, supported by the same factors as LLDPE and the peak-season demand from downstream industries [6] Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium- to long-term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. The peak-season demand for agricultural films continues, with stable production starts, while production starts for other films have declined after inventory replenishment. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7040 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 55, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.8%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 565,000 tons (-15,000), indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US talks [5] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with limited support from crude oil on the cost side. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -27, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, indicating a neutral signal [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 639,000 tons (-40,000), indicating a neutral signal [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US talks [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [7] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.3195 billion tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.906 billion tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the market is influenced by cost support and macro - policy promotion on the positive side, while facing weak demand on the negative side. For PP, similar factors are at play, with cost support and macro - policy driving growth, but also suffering from weak demand [4][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, back above the critical point. On July 14, the US threatened to impose secondary sanctions on Russian crude oil within 50 days. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a growth - stabilization plan for key industries including the petrochemical sector. In the supply - demand aspect, it's the off - season for agricultural films, and the packaging film market has slightly improved, with overall weak downstream demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7180 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 36, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.5%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.7 million tons (+3.3), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. Driven by the macro - growth - stabilization plan, with the off - season for agricultural film demand and weak downstream demand, and a neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the growth of the petrochemical industry are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic indicators in June show a certain situation. The supply - demand side is in the off - season for downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7140 (unchanged), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 127, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.8%, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.6 million tons (-1.5), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract shows a volatile trend on the disk. Driven by the macro - growth - stabilization plan, with weak downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., and a neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the growth of the petrochemical industry are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7180 (unchanged), the price of the 09 contract is 7216 (unchanged), the basis is - 36 (unchanged), the number of warehouse receipts is 5822 (unchanged), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 58.7 million tons (unchanged), and the PE social inventory is 53.7 million tons (unchanged) [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7140 (unchanged), the price of the 09 contract is 7013 (unchanged), the basis is 127 (unchanged), the number of warehouse receipts is 10083 (unchanged), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 56.6 million tons (unchanged), and the PP social inventory is 25.8 million tons (unchanged) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different growth trends. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also changed. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, considering factors such as macroeconomics, cost, supply - demand, basis, inventory, and market trends. It is expected that both LLDPE and PP will show a volatile and slightly upward trend today [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, showing the first contraction since last October. The geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East led to a short - term strengthening of crude oil, which was positive for the cost side. In terms of supply - demand, it was the off - season for agricultural films, the demand for packaging films was weakening, and the pressure of new capacity commissioning still existed. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products was 7400 (+40), and the overall fundamentals were neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract was - 18, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.2%, which was neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory was 55.6 tons (-1.3), which was neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract was flat, and the closing price was above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract decreased, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract rebounded. With geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, weak downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory, it was expected that PE would show a volatile and slightly upward trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost - side benefits were positive, while new capacity commissioning and weak demand were negative factors. The main logic was the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since last October. The geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East led to a short - term strengthening of crude oil, which was positive for the cost side. The downstream demand was generally weak, especially for pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of PP delivery products was 7300 (+50), and the overall fundamentals were neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract was 86, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.2%, showing a bullish trend [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory was 60.8 tons (+2.6), which was neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract was flat, and the closing price was above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract increased, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract rebounded. With geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, weak downstream demand for plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory, it was expected that PP would show a volatile and slightly upward trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost - side benefits were positive, while weak demand was a negative factor. The main logic was the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [9]. Market Data - **LLDPE Market Data**: The spot price of delivery products was 7400 (+40), the price of the 09 contract was 7418 (+101), the basis was - 18 (-61), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory was 556 (-13) [10]. - **PP Market Data**: The spot price of delivery products was 7300 (+50), the price of the 09 contract was 7214 (+89), the basis was 86 (-39), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory was 608 (+26) [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity was expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity was expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].