Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: June 24, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend today due to factors such as the rebound of the plastic main - contract on the disk, geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East leading to rising crude oil prices, the off - season of agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and the pressure of new capacity investment [4]. - The PP market is also expected to show a weak and volatile trend today considering the rebound of the PP main - contract on the disk, geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East causing rising crude oil prices, weak demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory [7]. LLDPE Analysis Fundamentals - In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since October last year. On June 24, the US announced a cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, causing crude oil prices to fall immediately. In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for agricultural films, packaging film demand is weakening, most enterprises are reducing production loads, and overall downstream demand is weak. There is still pressure from new capacity investment. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7500 (+40), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. Basis - The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 56, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.8%, which is bullish [4]. Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 55.6 tons (-1.3), which is neutral [4]. Disk - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. Main Position - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. Expectation - The LLDPE main contract rebounds on the disk. Considering geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, rising crude oil prices, the off - season of agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and new capacity investment pressure, it is expected that PE will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. Factors - Bullish factors: None mentioned - Bearish factors: New capacity investment and weak demand [6] - Main logic: Cost - demand game and tariff policies [6] PP Analysis Fundamentals - Similar to LLDPE, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since October last year. On June 24, the US announced a cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, causing crude oil prices to fall. In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for downstream demand, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7280 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. Basis - The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 18, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral [7]. Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.8 tons (+2.6), which is bearish [7]. Disk - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. Main Position - The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [7]. Expectation - The PP main contract rebounds on the disk. Considering geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, rising crude oil prices, weak demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will show a weak and volatile trend today [7]. Factors - Bullish factors: None mentioned - Bearish factors: Weak demand [9] - Main logic: Cost - demand game and tariff policies [9] Market Data Spot and Futures Quotes - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7500 (-20), the price of the 09 contract is 7444 (29), the basis is 56 (-49), etc. [10] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7280 (0), the price of the 09 contract is 7262 (20), the basis is 18 (-20), etc. [10] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, there have been changes in capacity, production, net imports, etc. For example, in 2024, the capacity is 3584.5, the production is 2773.8, the net import volume is 1360.32, and the PE import dependence is 32.9% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, etc. have also changed. In 2024, the capacity is 4418.5, the production is 3425, the net import volume is 360, and the PP import dependence is 9.5% [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, considering factors such as macroeconomics, cost, supply - demand, basis, inventory, and market trends. It is expected that both LLDPE and PP will show a volatile and slightly upward trend today [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, showing the first contraction since last October. The geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East led to a short - term strengthening of crude oil, which was positive for the cost side. In terms of supply - demand, it was the off - season for agricultural films, the demand for packaging films was weakening, and the pressure of new capacity commissioning still existed. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products was 7400 (+40), and the overall fundamentals were neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract was - 18, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.2%, which was neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory was 55.6 tons (-1.3), which was neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract was flat, and the closing price was above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract decreased, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract rebounded. With geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, weak downstream demand, and neutral industrial inventory, it was expected that PE would show a volatile and slightly upward trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost - side benefits were positive, while new capacity commissioning and weak demand were negative factors. The main logic was the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April, the first contraction since last October. The geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East led to a short - term strengthening of crude oil, which was positive for the cost side. The downstream demand was generally weak, especially for pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of PP delivery products was 7300 (+50), and the overall fundamentals were neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract was 86, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.2%, showing a bullish trend [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory was 60.8 tons (+2.6), which was neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract was flat, and the closing price was above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract increased, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract rebounded. With geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East causing a sharp rise in crude oil prices, weak downstream demand for plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory, it was expected that PP would show a volatile and slightly upward trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost - side benefits were positive, while weak demand was a negative factor. The main logic was the game between cost and demand and tariff policies [9]. Market Data - **LLDPE Market Data**: The spot price of delivery products was 7400 (+40), the price of the 09 contract was 7418 (+101), the basis was - 18 (-61), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory was 556 (-13) [10]. - **PP Market Data**: The spot price of delivery products was 7300 (+50), the price of the 09 contract was 7214 (+89), the basis was 86 (-39), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory was 608 (+26) [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity was expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity was expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, the cost side has recent support, but there are new capacity releases and weak demand. The market is expected to be volatile today due to the cost - demand game and tariff policy uncertainties [4][5]. - For PP, the cost side has recent support, but overall demand is weak. The market is also expected to be volatile today considering the cost - demand game and tariff policy uncertainties [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The situation of China - US tariffs has eased, but the final negotiation result remains uncertain. Recently, crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. It is the off - season for agricultural films, most factories are shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery goods is 7180 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 78, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.1%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 57.6 tons (+3.6), showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, also indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile. With cost support, off - season demand, high inventory, and new capacity pressure, the PE market is likely to move sideways today [4]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The China - US tariff situation has eased, but the final result is uncertain. Recently, crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery goods is 7150 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 190, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.7%, showing a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.5 tons (+5.2), indicating a neutral situation [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, suggesting a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is long, and the long position is decreasing, indicating a bullish trend [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile. With cost support, weak overall demand, and high industrial inventory, the PP market is likely to move sideways today [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - For LLDPE and PP, the market is expected to be volatile today. Cost has recent support, but new capacity and weak demand create a cost - demand game, also influenced by tariff policies [4][6] Summaries by Related Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. After the Sino - US tariff announcements in May, the situation eased, but the final negotiation result is uncertain. Crude oil and coal have rebounded, supporting the cost side. It's the off - season for agricultural films, most factories are shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7170 (+10), with overall neutral fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The LLDPE 2509 contract basis is 92, with a premium ratio of 1.3%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 57.6 tons (+3.6), considered neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The LLDPE main position is net short and increasing short positions, also bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is volatile. With cost support, off - season demand, new capacity pressure, and high industrial inventory, the PE is expected to be volatile today [4] - **Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are new capacity and weak demand. The main logic is the cost - demand game and tariff policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro data. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7150 (+50), with overall neutral fundamentals. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and demand in sectors like pipes and plastic weaving is weak [6] - **Basis**: The PP 2509 contract basis is 218, with a premium ratio of 3.1%, bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 60.5 tons (+5.2), neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The PP main position is net long but reducing long positions, still bullish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is volatile. With cost support, weak overall demand, and high industrial inventory, the PP is expected to be volatile today [6] - **Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is the cost - demand game and tariff policies [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and apparent consumption showed various trends. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and apparent consumption also had different trends. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15] Market Data Tables - **LLDPE**: Includes spot prices, futures prices, and inventory data such as spot delivery product price 7170 (+10), 09 contract price 7078 (+12), and PE comprehensive factory inventory 57.6 tons [8] - **PP**: Includes spot prices, futures prices, and inventory data such as spot delivery product price 7150 (+50), 09 contract price 6932 (+7), and PP comprehensive factory inventory 60.5 tons [8]

Market Overview - The stainless steel market is experiencing a stable price environment, with Wuxi and Foshan 304 cold-rolled prices holding steady at 13,050 CNY/ton and 13,100 CNY/ton respectively as of May 6 [1] - The overall sentiment in the market is cautious due to weak demand and inventory pressures, leading to limited price adjustments despite improved purchasing sentiment from major steel mills [2] Raw Material Insights - Nickel ore sales from Philippine mines have been robust, with 1.3% nickel ore prices ranging from 35-37 USD/ton FOB, while 1.4% nickel ore CIF prices exceed 50 USD/ton [1] - Indonesia's new tax policy has increased the nickel metal tax by 1.5%, contributing to rising comprehensive costs for nickel ore [1] - Nickel pig iron prices are under pressure, with recent transactions at 940 CNY/nickel (including tax) as steel mills exert more pricing pressure [2] Supply and Production Data - In April, 43 domestic stainless steel mills are expected to produce 3.4845 million tons of crude steel, a month-on-month increase of 0.45% and a year-on-year increase of 8.18% [1] - The production of 300 series stainless steel remains stable at 1.9075 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 13.3% [1] Inventory Levels - Social inventory levels have remained stable, with a slight increase in 300 series social inventory to 549,300 tons as of May 2 [1] - Stainless steel futures inventory decreased to 163,992 tons as of May 6, down by 6,973 tons week-on-week [1] Demand Dynamics - Domestic demand shows some resilience, albeit slowly recovering, with household appliance consumption providing some support [2] - Export orders have faced challenges due to tariff impacts, leading to a weaker purchasing atmosphere in the downstream market [2] Price Outlook - The market is expected to experience weak fluctuations, with the main trading range projected between 12,600 and 13,000 CNY [3]