交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-11-5 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。原油中长期 "供增需减" 格局未改，对聚烯烃成本端支撑有限。10 月 30 日，中美两 国领导人在韩国釜山举行面对面会晤，美方取消针对中国商品的 10%"芬太尼关税"，暂停对华 海事、物流等领域 301 调查措施一年，中方同步调整反制措施，10月下旬，美欧对俄油制裁升 级，油价反弹。供需端，农膜旺季需求延续，开工维持高位，其余膜类备货逐渐结束。当前LL交 割品现货价6880（-30），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差1，升贴水比例0.0%，中性； • 3. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-10-31 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，9月份，官方PMI为49.8，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气度有所 改善，但仍位于收缩区间。原油中长期 "供增需减" 格局未改，对聚烯烃成本端支撑有限。10 月 30 日，中美两国领导人在韩国釜山举行面对面会晤，美方取消针对中国商品的 10%"芬太尼 关税"，暂停对华海事、物流等领域 301 调查措施一年，中方同步调整反制措施，美欧对俄油 进行新一轮制裁，油价反弹。供需端，农膜旺季需求延续，开工稳，其余膜类备货结束开工下滑。 当前LL交割品现货价6990（-30），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差22，升贴水比例0.3%，中性 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-10-29 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，9月份，官方PMI为49.8，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气度有所 改善，但仍位于收缩区间。原油中长期 "供增需减" 格局未改，对聚烯烃成本端支撑有限。10 月25日至26日，中美双方在吉隆坡举行经贸磋商并形成初步共识，美欧对俄油进行新一轮制裁， 油价反弹。供需端，农膜旺季需求延续，开工稳，其余膜类备货结束开工下滑。当前LL交割品现 货价7040（+20），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差55，升贴水比例0.8%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存56.5万吨（-1.5），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP. For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are bearish, with expectations of a volatile market due to factors such as OPEC's continuous production increase, the off - season for agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and new production capacity pressure. For PP, the fundamentals are also bearish, and its market is expected to be volatile considering factors like weak downstream demand and OPEC's production increase [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, with production increasing for the fourth consecutive month. The agricultural film is in the off - season, packaging film downstream is weak, and new production capacity pressure remains. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7180 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is -35, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.5%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.7 tons (+3.3), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, affected by OPEC's production increase, off - season demand, weak downstream demand, and new production capacity pressure [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are new production capacity release and weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [6]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show a contraction range for PMI, and OPEC is increasing production. The downstream demand for PP is in the off - season, with weak demand in pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7140 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 120, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.7%, considered bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.6 tons (-1.5), considered neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today, affected by OPEC's production increase and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; the bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: July 7, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Macro: In June, PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, in contraction range for three consecutive months; Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. Supply - demand: Off - season for agricultural films, weak downstream demand for packaging films, many enterprises reducing loads, overall downstream demand weak, new production capacity pressure remains. Current LL delivery spot price is 7330 (+50), overall fundamental is bearish [4]. Other Indicators - Basis: LLDPE 2509 contract basis is 48, premium ratio is 0.7%, bullish [4]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 500,000 tons (-0.5), neutral [4]. - Disk: LLDPE main contract 20 - day moving average is upward, closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [4]. - Main Position: LLDPE main position is net short and increasing short positions, bearish [4]. - Expectation: The plastic main contract disk fluctuates. OPEC increases production for the fourth consecutive month, it's the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, production pressure remains, industrial inventory is neutral. PE is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Factors - Bullish: Cost support [6] - Bearish: New production capacity launch, weak demand [6] - Main Logic: Cost - demand game, tariff policy [6] Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Macro: Similar to LLDPE, in June, PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, in contraction range for three consecutive months; Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. Supply - demand: Downstream demand is in the off - season, demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. Current PP delivery spot price is 7250 (-0), overall fundamental is bearish [7]. Other Indicators - Basis: PP 2509 contract basis is 172, premium ratio is 2.4%, bullish [7]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 570,000 tons (-1.5), neutral [7]. - Disk: PP main contract 20 - day moving average is upward, closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [7]. - Main Position: PP main position is net short and increasing short positions, bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract disk fluctuates. OPEC increases production for the fourth consecutive month, downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak, industrial inventory is neutral. PP is expected to fluctuate today [7]. Factors - Bullish: Cost support [9] - Bearish: New production capacity launch, weak demand [9] - Main Logic: Cost - demand game, tariff policy [9] Group 4: Market Data LLDPE - Spot prices: LL delivery spot price is 7330 (+50), LL import US dollar price is 840 (0), LL import conversion price is 7393 (-4), LL import price difference is - 63 (+54) [10]. - Futures prices: L01 is 7243 (-19), L05 is 7221 (-27), L09 is 7282 (-2) [10]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive factory inventory is 500,000 tons, social inventory is 507,000 tons, warehouse receipts are 5831 (+200) [10]. PP - Spot prices: PP delivery spot price is 7250 (0), PP import US dollar price is 885 (0), PP import conversion price is 7781 (-4), PP import price difference is - 531 (+4) [10]. - Futures prices: PP01 is 7042 (+1), PP05 is 7032 (-9), PP09 is 7078 (+4) [10]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive factory inventory is 570,000 tons, social inventory is 252,000 tons, warehouse receipts are 7292 (-100) [10] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, etc. showed different trends. For example, capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [15]. Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, etc. also changed. Capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [17]