Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The US cancelled some restrictions on Chinese goods and suspended the 301 investigation on China's maritime and logistics sectors for one year. OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from supply - demand imbalance to oversupply in November 12, causing oil prices to fall. The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, but it starts to decline in some areas, and the demand for other films is mainly based on rigid needs. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery product is 6860 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. Basis - The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is 47, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [4]. Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), which is bearish [4]. Market Chart - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. Main Position - The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals are in oversupply, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues but starts to decline in some areas, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices; the Sino - US talks have reached a phased easing [5]. - Bearish factors: The demand is weaker year - on - year; there will be many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The peak season for plastic weaving is approaching the end, while the demand for pipes is picking up. The current spot price of PP delivery product is 6420 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. Basis - The basis of PP 2601 contract is - 14, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [6]. Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), which is neutral [6]. Market Chart - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. Main Position - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. The fundamentals are in oversupply, the peak season for plastic weaving is approaching the end, and the demand for pipes is picking up, with a moderately high industrial inventory [6]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices; the Sino - US talks have reached a phased easing [7]. - Bearish factors: The demand is weaker year - on - year; there will be many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. Group 4: Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - LLDPE: The spot price of the delivery product is 6860 (-20), the price of the 01 contract is 6835 (2), etc. [8] - PP: The spot price of the delivery product is 6420 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6400 (-34), etc. [8] Inventory Data - LLDPE: The warehouse receipt is 12017 (0), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), etc. [8] - PP: The warehouse receipt is 15733 (-29), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), etc. [8] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the capacity in 2018 was 1869.5, and it increased to 4319.5 in 2025E with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the capacity, production, net import volume, etc. of polypropylene have also changed. For example, the capacity in 2018 was 2245.5, and it is expected to reach 4906 in 2025E with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 5, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral. The macroeconomic environment shows a decline in manufacturing sentiment, and the long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil has limited support for the cost side of polyolefins. However, factors such as the rebound of oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the staged easing of Sino - US relations have an impact on the market. It is expected that the PE and PP markets will fluctuate today [4][6]. Summary by Directory LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, a 0.8 - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil has limited support for the cost side. The demand in the agricultural film peak season continues, and the start - up rate remains high, while the restocking of other film types is gradually ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6880 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 1, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 46.6 million tons (-9.9), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, showing a bullish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates on the disk. After the Sino - US summit in Busan and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil, crude oil has rebounded. With the continued demand in the agricultural film peak season and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the staged easing of Sino - US relations; negative factors include weak demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic environment shows a decline in manufacturing sentiment, and the long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil has limited support for the cost side. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 10, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.5 million tons (-4.3), showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract fluctuates on the disk. After the Sino - US summit in Busan and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil, crude oil has rebounded. With the support of downstream peak - season demand and a neutral - to - high industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will fluctuate today [6]. - **Factors**: Positive factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the staged easing of Sino - US relations; negative factors include weak demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6880 (-30), and the price of the 01 contract is 6879 (-9); the spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (0), and the price of the 01 contract is 6560 (-16) [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The LLDPE warehouse receipt is 12675 (0), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 46.6 million tons (0); the PP warehouse receipt is 14569 (0), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 59.5 million tons (0) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different trends. The production capacity growth rate was relatively high in 2020 (17.8%) and 2025E (20.5%). The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also changed. The production capacity growth rate was relatively high in 2020 (15.5%) and 2023 (14.1%). The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 [15].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - LLDPE is expected to trade in a range today, with the plastic main contract fluctuating, the Sino-US negotiation reaching a preliminary consensus, Russian oil facing new sanctions leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, the peak season demand for agricultural films continuing, and the industrial inventory at a neutral level [4] - PP is also expected to trade in a range today, with the main contract fluctuating, the Sino-US negotiation reaching a preliminary consensus, Russian oil facing new sanctions leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, and downstream peak season demand providing support [6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium- to long-term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. On October 30, Sino-US leaders met, the US canceled a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspended a 301 investigation into China's maritime and logistics sectors for one year, and China adjusted countermeasures accordingly. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in oil prices. On the supply and demand side, the peak season demand for agricultural films continues, with stable production, while the rest of the film categories have completed stocking and production has declined. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6990 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 22, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 466,000 tons (-114,000), neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract has decreased, bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to trade in a range today [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium- to long-term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. On October 30, Sino-US leaders met, the US canceled a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspended a 301 investigation into China's maritime and logistics sectors for one year, and China adjusted countermeasures accordingly. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in oil prices. On the supply and demand side, the demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -21, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, neutral [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 595,000 tons (-84,000), neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has decreased, bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to trade in a range today [6] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: Detailed data on capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other aspects from 2018 to 2025E are provided, showing trends in capacity growth, production, and consumption [13] - **Polypropylene**: Similar to polyethylene, detailed data on capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other aspects from 2018 to 2025E are provided, showing trends in capacity growth, production, and consumption [15] Market Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Spot and futures prices and their changes for LLDPE and PP are provided, including prices in different regions, main contracts, and import prices [8] - **Inventory Data**: Inventory data for LLDPE and PP, including warehouse receipts and comprehensive factory and social inventories, are provided [8]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trend sideways to the upside today due to factors such as the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US negotiations, new sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, the continuation of peak-season demand for agricultural films, and neutral industrial inventories [4] - PP is also expected to trend sideways to the upside today, supported by the same factors as LLDPE and the peak-season demand from downstream industries [6] Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium- to long-term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. The peak-season demand for agricultural films continues, with stable production starts, while production starts for other films have declined after inventory replenishment. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7040 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 55, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.8%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 565,000 tons (-15,000), indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US talks [5] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with limited support from crude oil on the cost side. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -27, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, indicating a neutral signal [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 639,000 tons (-40,000), indicating a neutral signal [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the preliminary consensus reached in the China-US talks [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [7] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.3195 billion tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.906 billion tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP. For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are bearish, with expectations of a volatile market due to factors such as OPEC's continuous production increase, the off - season for agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and new production capacity pressure. For PP, the fundamentals are also bearish, and its market is expected to be volatile considering factors like weak downstream demand and OPEC's production increase [4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, with production increasing for the fourth consecutive month. The agricultural film is in the off - season, packaging film downstream is weak, and new production capacity pressure remains. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7180 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is -35, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.5%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.7 tons (+3.3), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, affected by OPEC's production increase, off - season demand, weak downstream demand, and new production capacity pressure [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are new production capacity release and weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [6]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show a contraction range for PMI, and OPEC is increasing production. The downstream demand for PP is in the off - season, with weak demand in pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7140 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 120, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.7%, considered bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.6 tons (-1.5), considered neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today, affected by OPEC's production increase and weak downstream demand [7]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; the bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: July 7, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Macro: In June, PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, in contraction range for three consecutive months; Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. Supply - demand: Off - season for agricultural films, weak downstream demand for packaging films, many enterprises reducing loads, overall downstream demand weak, new production capacity pressure remains. Current LL delivery spot price is 7330 (+50), overall fundamental is bearish [4]. Other Indicators - Basis: LLDPE 2509 contract basis is 48, premium ratio is 0.7%, bullish [4]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 500,000 tons (-0.5), neutral [4]. - Disk: LLDPE main contract 20 - day moving average is upward, closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [4]. - Main Position: LLDPE main position is net short and increasing short positions, bearish [4]. - Expectation: The plastic main contract disk fluctuates. OPEC increases production for the fourth consecutive month, it's the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, production pressure remains, industrial inventory is neutral. PE is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Factors - Bullish: Cost support [6] - Bearish: New production capacity launch, weak demand [6] - Main Logic: Cost - demand game, tariff policy [6] Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Macro: Similar to LLDPE, in June, PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, in contraction range for three consecutive months; Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. Supply - demand: Downstream demand is in the off - season, demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. Current PP delivery spot price is 7250 (-0), overall fundamental is bearish [7]. Other Indicators - Basis: PP 2509 contract basis is 172, premium ratio is 2.4%, bullish [7]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 570,000 tons (-1.5), neutral [7]. - Disk: PP main contract 20 - day moving average is upward, closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [7]. - Main Position: PP main position is net short and increasing short positions, bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract disk fluctuates. OPEC increases production for the fourth consecutive month, downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak, industrial inventory is neutral. PP is expected to fluctuate today [7]. Factors - Bullish: Cost support [9] - Bearish: New production capacity launch, weak demand [9] - Main Logic: Cost - demand game, tariff policy [9] Group 4: Market Data LLDPE - Spot prices: LL delivery spot price is 7330 (+50), LL import US dollar price is 840 (0), LL import conversion price is 7393 (-4), LL import price difference is - 63 (+54) [10]. - Futures prices: L01 is 7243 (-19), L05 is 7221 (-27), L09 is 7282 (-2) [10]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive factory inventory is 500,000 tons, social inventory is 507,000 tons, warehouse receipts are 5831 (+200) [10]. PP - Spot prices: PP delivery spot price is 7250 (0), PP import US dollar price is 885 (0), PP import conversion price is 7781 (-4), PP import price difference is - 531 (+4) [10]. - Futures prices: PP01 is 7042 (+1), PP05 is 7032 (-9), PP09 is 7078 (+4) [10]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive factory inventory is 570,000 tons, social inventory is 252,000 tons, warehouse receipts are 7292 (-100) [10] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, etc. showed different trends. For example, capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [15]. Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, etc. also changed. Capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [17]