交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-2-4 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 利多 • 1、成本支撑 • 2、原油偏强 • 利空 • 1、下游需求同比偏弱 • 主要逻辑：供过于求，供需边际变化敏感 • 主要风险点：原油大幅波动、国际政策博弈 • PP概述： • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 OPEC+2月1日部长级会议重申去年11月2日决定，因季节性需求疲软暂停2026年第一季度的增产计 划。近期受伊朗等地缘政治扰动影响，原油走势偏强短期回落，带动装置利润差、成本支撑强的 聚烯烃跟随波动。供需端，临近春节，农膜方面，停工放假企业增多，整体订单少，包装膜企业 同样订单偏少。当前L ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to be volatile today, with a weakening futures contract, oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand [4] - The PP market is also expected to be volatile today, with a weakening futures contract, oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand [6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized. The demand for agricultural films is gradually weakening, and the packaging film orders have declined after the peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6320 (+100), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 70, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.1%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 491,000 tons (-32,000), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is weak, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to be volatile today [4] - **Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized, while PDH profits have continued to decline due to the strong propane price. The plastic weaving industry has entered the off - season, and the demand for pipes has decreased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6220 (+40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 46, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.7%, which is bearish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 533,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is weak, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to be volatile today [6] - **Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6320 (+100), the 05 - contract price is 6390 (-18), the basis is - 70, the import price in US dollars is 755 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 6532 (-4), and the import price difference is - 212 (+104). The warehouse receipt is 11,265 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 491,000 tons (-32,000), and the social inventory is 472,000 tons (+3,000) [8] - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6220 (+40), the 05 - contract price is 6266 (-12), the basis is - 46, the import price in US dollars is 750 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 6490 (-4), and the import price difference is - 270 (+44). The warehouse receipt is 14,935 (+3,000), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 533,000 tons (+5,000), and the social inventory is 293,000 tons (-12,000) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are generally bearish in terms of fundamentals, with oversupply, weak downstream demand, and increasing inventories However, there is cost support, and the markets are expected to fluctuate today [4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026 Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized The demand for agricultural films is weakening, and packaging film orders are declining after the peak season The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6,230 (-20), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [4] - **Basis**: The basis of LLDPE 2605 contract is -66, and the premium/discount ratio is -1.0%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 523,000 tons (+15,000), which is bearish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is weak on the disk, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand It is expected to fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [5] - **Bearish Factors**: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026 Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized As propane prices are strong, PDH profits continue to decline The plastic weaving industry has entered the off - season, with a decrease in order volume, and the demand for pipes has also decreased The current PP delivery product spot price is 6,150 (-0), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [6] - **Basis**: The basis of PP 2605 contract is -8, and the premium/discount ratio is -0.1%, which is neutral [6] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 538,000 tons (+1,000), which is bearish [6] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is weak on the disk, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand It is expected to fluctuate today [6] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [7] - **Bearish Factors**: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 6,230 (-20), and the 05 contract price is 6,296 (56) The basis is -66 (-76) The warehouse receipt is 11,265 (-33) [8] - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 6,150 (0), and the 05 contract price is 6,158 (39) The basis is -8 (-39) The warehouse receipt is 10,772 (-120) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an increasing trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate The expected capacity in 2025E is 4,3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate The expected capacity in 2025E is 4,906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: December 17, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] 2. LLDPE Analysis 2.1 Fundamental Analysis - In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, with a 137,000 barrels per day increase in December and a suspension of the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices declined, and coal - based profits stabilized. Agricultural film demand was stable, while packaging film demand weakened after the peak season. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6520 (-60), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [4]. 2.2 Basis Analysis - The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -23, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, considered neutral [4]. 2.3 Inventory Analysis - PE comprehensive inventory is 508,000 tons (+11,000), which is bearish [4]. 2.4 Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish market [4]. 2.5 Main Position Analysis - The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. 2.6 Outlook - The LLDPE main contract is weak on the market, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to fluctuate today [4]. 2.7 Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [5] - Bearish factors: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5] 3. PP Analysis 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, in November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month. OPEC+ maintained the production plan, with a 137,000 barrels per day increase in December and a suspension from January to March 2026. Coal prices declined, coal - based profits stabilized, and PDH profits continued to decline with the strong propane price. Plastic weaving demand entered the off - season, while pipe demand was okay. The current PP delivery spot price is 6250 (-0), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [6]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -6, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.1%, considered neutral [6]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - PP comprehensive inventory is 537,000 tons (-28,000), which is bearish [6]. 3.4 Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish market [6]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing but still bearish [6]. 3.6 Outlook - The PP main contract is weak on the market, with oversupply in the fundamentals. The rising propane price affects the market, industrial inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate today [6]. 3.7 Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [7] - Bearish factors: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7] 4. Market Data 4.1 LLDPE Market Data | Category | Details | |--|--| | Spot Delivery | Price 6520, change -60 | | LL Import US Dollar | Price 765, change 0 | | LL Import Conversion | Price 6633, change - 5 | | LL Import Spread | -113, change -55 | | 05 Contract | Price 6543, change -14 | | Basis | -23, change -46 | | L01 | Price 6516, change - 6 | | L05 | Price 6543, change -14 | | L09 | Price 6568, change -15 | | Warehouse Receipts | Quantity 11332, change 0 | | PE Comprehensive Factory Warehouse | Quantity not clear, change 0 | | PE Social Inventory | Quantity not clear, change 12 | [8] 4.2 PP Market Data | Category | Details | |--|--| | Spot Delivery | Price 6250, change 0 | | PP Import US Dollar | Price 750, change 0 | | PP Import Conversion | Price 6506, change - 5 | | PP Import Spread | -256, change 5 | | 05 Contract | Price 6256, change 2 | | Basis | - 6, change - 2 | | PP01 | Price 6192, change 14 | | PP05 | Price 6256, change 2 | | PP09 | Price 6291, change 14 | | Warehouse Receipts | Quantity 15113, change -634 | | PP Comprehensive Factory Warehouse | Quantity not clear, change 0 | | PP Social Inventory | Quantity not clear, change 0 | [8] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets 5.1 Polyethylene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an increasing trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. 5.2 Polypropylene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show weak and volatile trends today. The fundamentals of both are oversupplied, with downstream demand generally weak, although propane price increases are providing some support to the market [4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, improving coal - based production profits. Agricultural film demand is weak, while packaging film demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, with some improvement in certain regions. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6,580 (-60), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -19, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 508,000 tons (+11,000), considered neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is showing a weak downward trend. With an oversupply in fundamentals, a strong propane price driving the market, neutral industrial inventory, and a decline in downstream demand, it is expected that the PE market will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, improving coal - based production profits. Plastic weaving has entered the off - season with falling demand, while pipe demand is acceptable. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6,300 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 138, with a premium/discount ratio of 2.2%, indicating a bullish trend [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 537,000 tons (-28,000), considered neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, but still indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is showing a weak downward trend. With an oversupply in fundamentals, a strong propane price driving the market, neutral industrial inventory, and average downstream demand, it is expected that the PP market will show a weak and volatile trend today [6]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 6,580 (-60), the 05 - contract price is 6,599 (-11), the basis is -19 (-49), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 508,000 tons (+11,000), and the PE social inventory is 457,000 tons (-30,000) [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 6,300 (-50), the 01 - contract price is 6,162 (-30), the basis is 138 (-20), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 537,000 tons (-28,000), and the PP social inventory is 315,000 tons (-10,000) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with a planned 20.5% increase in 2025E. The production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown certain trends. For example, the production capacity in 2024 was 3,584.5, with a 12.4% growth rate [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with a planned 11.0% increase in 2025E. The production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also changed accordingly. For example, the production capacity in 2024 was 4,418.5, with a 13.5% growth rate [15].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to be volatile today, with a bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, weakening downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [4]. - The PP market is also expected to be volatile today, with a bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, general downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [6]. Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China-US summit, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply in November, leading to a drop in oil prices. Agricultural film demand has declined, while other film types are mainly driven by rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6840 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 70, with a premium ratio of 1.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 55.4 million tons (-2.5), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, with a bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, weakening downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [4]. LLDPE Factors - **Bullish Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices, and the China-US summit has achieved a phased easing [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. After the China-US summit, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply in November, leading to a drop in oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6380 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 23, with a premium ratio of 0.4%, indicating a neutral signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.4 million tons (-2.6), indicating a neutral signal [6]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today, with a bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, general downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [6]. PP Factors - **Bullish Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices, and the China-US summit has achieved a phased easing [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: The table shows the capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other data of polyethylene from 2018 to 2025E. The capacity and production have been increasing year by year, while the import dependence has been decreasing [13]. - **Polypropylene**: The table shows the capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other data of polypropylene from 2018 to 2025E. The capacity and production have also been increasing year by year, while the import dependence has been decreasing [15].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: June 13, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The cost side provides support, but there are pressures from new capacity and weak demand [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The situation regarding China-US tariffs has eased, but the final negotiation result remains uncertain. Recently, crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. It's the off - season for agricultural films, with many factories shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7210 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 93, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.3%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.9 million tons (-0.7), showing a neutral situation [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. With recent cost support, off - season demand for agricultural films, new capacity pressure, and relatively high industrial inventory, the PE market is expected to fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support on the recent cost side [5] - **Negative Factors**: New capacity launch and weak demand [5] - **Main Logic**: The game between cost and demand, and tariff policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The China - US tariff situation has eased, but the result is uncertain. Crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 181, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.6%, indicating a bullish signal [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 million tons (-2.4), showing a neutral situation [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is long, with a reduction in long positions, indicating a bullish signal [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. With recent cost support, weak overall demand, and relatively high industrial inventory, the PP market is expected to fluctuate today [6] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support on the recent cost side [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [7] - **Main Logic**: The game between cost and demand, and tariff policies [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing year by year [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has also been growing, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E [15]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, but the cost side has recent support. The market is expected to be volatile today due to the cost-demand game and tariff policy uncertainties [4][6]. Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The cost side is supported by the rebound of crude oil and coal. However, it's the off-season for agricultural films with many factories shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7160 (+10), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 94, with a premium ratio of 1.3%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 576,000 tons (+36,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, with cost support, weak demand in the off - season, high industrial inventory, and new capacity pressure [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support; bearish factors include new capacity release and weak demand. The main logic lies in the cost - demand game and tariff policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro data. The cost side has support from the rebound of crude oil and coal. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7100 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 175, with a premium ratio of 2.5%, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 605,000 tons (+52,000), which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is long, but long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today, with cost support, weak overall demand, and high industrial inventory [6]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support; bearish factors include weak demand. The main logic lies in the cost - demand game and tariff policies [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 7160 (+10), the 09 contract price is 7066 (+32), the basis is 94 (-22), the warehouse receipt is 5254 (+10), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 576,000 tons, and the social inventory is 583,000 tons [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 7100 (0), the 09 contract price is 6925 (+14), the basis is 175 (-14), the warehouse receipt is 4885 (-149), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 605,000 tons, and the social inventory is 243,000 tons [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has also been increasing, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has shown some fluctuations, and the consumption growth rate has been positive overall [15].