1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, pulp futures fluctuated sharply, with significant position - building and price drops from Monday to Wednesday, breaking through 5000 yuan/ton, and then rebounding to around 5200 yuan/ton after position - reduction. The main reason is that the Shanghai Pulp Conference led the market to reach a consensus on the "weak reality" logic [3]. - During the pulp conference, pulp mills and pulp traders negotiated prices. The price of softwood pulp is expected to decline, while hardwood pulp remains relatively strong. The pattern of "weak softwood, strong hardwood" that has persisted since the beginning of the year continues [3]. - The impact of the US - Iran war on pulp's external quotations is currently limited, only supporting the price - holding requirements of Nordic pulp mills [3]. - In terms of inventory, both softwood and hardwood pulp saw a slight reduction this week, mainly in southern ports, while Qingdao Port still accumulated inventory [3]. - There was some improvement in demand this week. After the sharp decline in pulp futures, both traders and cash - futures traders were active in selling, reflecting the paper mills' bottom - fishing psychology. Hardwood pulp was particularly easy to sell below 4500 yuan/ton. However, the prices of the four major wood - pulp papers remained relatively stable (white cardboard prices declined), and this bottom - fishing behavior is considered short - term procurement rather than a long - term bottom signal [3]. - In terms of basis and calendar spreads, the pulp basis strengthened in the second half of this week. Silver Star's basis was restored to a premium, and the price difference between the second - type pulp widened by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis of Russian softwood pulp was stable, which may indicate that the market is gradually pricing based on Russian softwood pulp. In terms of calendar spreads, the 5 - 7/5 - 9 spreads weakened significantly, reaching the risk - free positive arbitrage level, indicating that this decline is dominated by "weak demand" [3]. - For single - side trading, consider shorting at high prices. The "weak reality" logic of pulp futures has been gradually confirmed, and the overall upside space is limited. When domestic prices lead external prices and the futures market is still priced based on the second - type pulp, shorting at around the import cost of the second - type pulp can be considered [4]. - For calendar spread arbitrage, conduct 5 - 7/5 - 9 reverse arbitrage. Reverse arbitrage is considered a relatively safe strategy. Currently, a considerable number of participants are willing to bet on the expectation of "capacity clearance of softwood pulp". The confirmation of "weak reality" and the pressure of "high warehouse receipts" can drive long - position holders to shift their positions to the far - month contracts, creating reverse arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For cash - futures arbitrage, conduct long arbitrage on hardwood pulp. The performance of hardwood pulp in the first quarter has proven that its supply - demand relationship is significantly better than that of softwood pulp, and this trend is expected to continue [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Market Review**: Pulp futures fluctuated sharply this week, with significant position - building and price drops from Monday to Wednesday, breaking through 5000 yuan/ton, and then rebounding to around 5200 yuan/ton after position - reduction. The main reason is the Shanghai Pulp Conference [3]. - **Pulp Fundamentals**: Price negotiations between pulp mills and traders during the conference led to an expected price decline in softwood pulp and relatively stable hardwood pulp. The "weak softwood, strong hardwood" pattern continued. The impact of the US - Iran war on external quotations was limited. Inventory decreased slightly in southern ports but increased in Qingdao Port. Demand improved slightly, with short - term bottom - fishing behavior [3]. - **Basis and Calendar Spreads**: The basis strengthened in the second half of the week, and the 5 - 7/5 - 9 spreads weakened significantly, indicating "weak demand" [3]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: Short at high prices around the import cost of the second - type pulp [4]. - **Calendar Spread Arbitrage**: 5 - 7/5 - 9 reverse arbitrage [5]. - **Cash - Futures Arbitrage**: Long arbitrage on hardwood pulp [6] 3.2 Part Two: Pulp and Paper Industry Chain Price Data - **Futures Prices**: Futures prices first fell and then rose, with overall increases in positions and trading volumes [10]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices of softwood and hardwood pulp declined, and the basis of softwood pulp strengthened [19]. - **External Quotations**: There is an expected decline in the external quotations of softwood pulp, while hardwood pulp remains relatively strong [32]. - **Chip Prices**: The prices of wood chips in Shandong, Guangxi, and other regions showed certain trends, and the monthly average import price of Chinese wood chips also had corresponding changes [42][44][47]. - **Finished Paper**: The price of white cardboard declined [50]. 3.3 Part Three: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume** - **Softwood Pulp**: In February 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp decreased year - on - year [61]. - **Hardwood Pulp**: In February 2026, the import volume of hardwood pulp decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month [71]. - **South American Three - Country Pulp Exports**: In February 2026, the export volume to China decreased slightly month - on - month [80]. - **W20 Chemical Pulp Shipment**: In January 2026, the shipment of W20 chemical pulp to China decreased [89]. - **Domestic Production** - **Pulp Production**: In February 2026, the domestic production of pulp decreased [101]. - **Chip Import and Domestic Procurement**: In February 2026, the import volume of hardwood chips decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the domestic procurement volume of wood chips also decreased [109][122]. - **Inventory** - **Overseas Pulp Mills**: In January 2026, softwood pulp mills had serious inventory accumulation [130]. - **Chinese Pulp Ports**: Softwood pulp had a slight inventory reduction, and hardwood pulp had a significant inventory reduction [137]. - **Pulp Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The newly added warehouse receipts of pulp decreased slightly this week [151]. - **European Pulp Ports**: Pulp inventory decreased month - on - month [161]. - **Chinese Wood - Pulp Paper Production and Inventory** - **Production**: In February 2026, the production of Chinese wood - pulp paper decreased [175]. - **Industry Inventory**: In December 2025, the inventory of finished paper in the Chinese paper - making industry increased [186]. - **Factory Inventory**: Except for tissue paper, other wood - pulp paper products had inventory accumulation [199]. - **Social Inventory**: Tissue paper had inventory reduction, and white cardboard had inventory accumulation [207]. - **Chinese Finished Paper Import and Export** - **Import**: The import volume of Chinese finished paper showed certain trends [214]. - **Export**: The export volume of Chinese finished paper also had corresponding changes [223]. - **Chinese Chemical Pulp Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the supply, demand, inventory, and supply - demand differences of chemical pulp from 2020 to February 2026 [232]. 3.4 Part Four: Pulp Price Difference Data - **Spot Price Difference**: The price differences between Silver Star, Russian softwood pulp, and hardwood pulp showed certain trends [237]. - **Calendar Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread weakened [247]. - **Basis**: The basis of softwood pulp weakened [258]. - **Profit Situation** - **Global Major Pulp Mills**: The profit of softwood pulp mills declined significantly [268]. - **Chinese Pulp Import**: The import profit of softwood pulp decreased [280]. - **Chinese Finished Paper Production**: The production profit of finished paper showed corresponding changes [288]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hot - rolled coil industry is "Oscillating and Weakening" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the hot - rolled coil futures decreased in positions and oscillated weakly. It is expected to continue this trend in the short term. The short - term support is near the previous low, and the medium - term pressure is near the 30 - day and 60 - day moving averages. Currently, the hot - rolled coil futures are in a game stage of "weak reality (inventory accumulation, weak domestic demand) and strong expectation (export support, policy benefits)". The price increase depends on demand recovery and policy implementation. However, the improvement of export profit, the production resilience of steel mills, and policy expectations form a bottom support, limiting the downward space. Future focus should be on the inventory depletion speed in mid - to - late March, the resumption of work in the manufacturing industry and order fulfillment, and changes in supply - side production [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract on Thursday was 389,600 lots, showing an increase compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 5,552 lots. The short - term average line fell below the 5 - day moving average of around 3,214, and the medium - term pressure of the 30 - day moving average at 3,256 and the 60 - day moving average at 3,269 still exists. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - Spot price: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 21 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - Supply side: The actual weekly output was 301.11 million tons, a decrease of 8.50 million tons (-2.75%) compared to the previous period, indicating a slight contraction in production [4] - Demand side: The apparent consumption was 281.57 million tons, an increase of 13.20 million tons (+4.92%) compared to the previous period, showing a steady recovery in consumption [4] - Inventory side: The social inventory was 381.61 million tons, an increase of 24.24 million tons (+6.78%) compared to the previous period, showing continuous inventory accumulation. The steel mill inventory was 90.08 million tons, a decrease of 4.70 million tons (-4.96%) compared to the previous period, indicating inventory depletion in mills. The total inventory was 471.69 million tons, an increase of 14.68 million tons (+3.21%) compared to the previous period, showing that the overall inventory was still increasing [4] - Policy side: On March 5, 2026, the Two Sessions were held, and the government work report proposed issuing ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan and arranging special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan, strengthening infrastructure and "two new" project support, and boosting medium - to - long - term market confidence. However, the current manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, downstream orders have not seen substantial improvement, and it will take time for policies to be transmitted to the hot - rolled coil demand side, making it difficult to reverse the high - inventory situation in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [5] - Bearish factors: slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, price suppression due to inventory accumulation, and increased macro - level disturbances [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The stainless steel market is currently in a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality" with a bullish sentiment on the futures market, but the spot trading volume has not significantly increased, and the downstream resumption of work is slow. In the short - term, the price may continue to fluctuate in a slightly stronger trend, and the upward space is limited by high inventory and insufficient demand verification. If downstream procurement starts intensively in mid - March, it may trigger a phased breakthrough; otherwise, it may fall back to the cost support level [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market On March 2, 2026, the closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract SS2604 was 14,385 yuan/ton, up 1.91% from the previous trading day. The trading volume significantly increased to 160,089 lots, a 24.6% increase from the previous day, while the open interest continued to shrink to 67,918 lots, a 6.4% decrease from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Spot Market The stainless steel spot market showed a stable and differentiated pattern on the day. The leading price of Chinese stainless steel spot was 13,631 yuan/ton. In the Wuxi market, the price range of 304 cold - rolled/2B four - foot trimmed edges was 14,520 - 15,020 yuan/ton, with some agents' quotes down 100 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled quotes slightly increased to 13,920 yuan/ton. In the Foshan market, the 304 cold - rolled quotes remained stable at 15,005 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled quotes decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,955 yuan/ton. Overall, spot trading was light, downstream procurement was mainly for restocking by old customers, new orders were limited, market sentiment was still cautious, and traders' quotes were mainly stable, with some regions seeing small price increases due to cost support and peak - season expectations [3]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Level**: In March, the planned production of stainless steel crude steel reached 3.6335 million tons, a significant 32.69% increase from the previous month. Among them, the planned production of the 300 series was 1.8948 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 43.24%, indicating that the production rhythm in the traditional peak season has significantly accelerated. The price of ferronickel has been continuously strengthening, with the mainstream quotes ranging from 1,080 to 1,100 yuan/nickel, and some scattered orders reaching 1,130 - 1,150 yuan/nickel, providing strong cost support for stainless steel [4][5]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the day, the K - line of the SS2604 contract closed positive, with a long body, a very short upper shadow, and an obvious lower shadow, indicating that the support at 14,100 yuan/ton was effective. In the MACD indicator, the DIF and DEA formed a golden cross near the zero axis, and the red bars began to expand, with the momentum changing from weak to strong. The RSI was reported at 58.3, in a neutral - to - strong range without over - buying. The Bollinger Bands' opening slightly narrowed, and the price was above the middle track, indicating that the short - term trend was bullish but the volatility was converging, and the game between long and short positions was approaching equilibrium [5]. 3.4 Market Outlook Under the impetus of cost support, increased production, and a slight reduction in inventory, the sentiment in the stainless steel market is bullish. However, the spot trading volume has not significantly increased, and the downstream resumption of work is slow. The market is still in a game stage of "strong expectation, weak reality". In the short - term, the price may continue to fluctuate in a slightly stronger trend, and the upward space is limited by high inventory and insufficient demand verification. If downstream procurement starts intensively in mid - March, it may trigger a phased breakthrough; otherwise, it may fall back to the cost support level [6].

Economic Overview - February manufacturing PMI stands at 49%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued contraction[1] - Non-manufacturing PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.5%, showing a seasonal rebound, particularly in the service sector[2] - Composite PMI decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 49.5%, reflecting overall economic activity contraction[3] Supply and Demand Signals - Both supply and demand have declined, with the production index at 49.6%, down 1.0 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity[4] - New orders index fell by 0.6 percentage points to 48.6%, with new export orders dropping by 2.8 percentage points to 45.0%, suggesting weakened external demand[6] Price and Inventory Trends - The raw material purchase price index decreased by 1.3 percentage points, while the factory price index remained stable, indicating a general decline in market prices[6] - Finished goods inventory index fell by 2.8 percentage points, suggesting ongoing challenges in the inventory cycle[6] Employment and Business Sentiment - Large enterprises showed a PMI increase of 1.2 points, while small and medium enterprises saw declines of 1.2 and 2.6 points, respectively, highlighting ongoing employment pressures[6] - Manufacturing business expectations index rose to 53.2%, up 0.6 percentage points, indicating positive future outlook despite current challenges[7] Policy and Economic Outlook - The GDP target for 2026 is projected at 4.5-5%, suggesting a need for proactive and expansionary policies[8] - Key areas to monitor include the outcomes of the upcoming National People's Congress, fiscal budget arrangements, and the progress of major projects[8]

Core Viewpoint - The rebar futures contract has shown a significant rebound near previous support levels, indicating a potential bottoming signal, with a notable increase in trading volume [1] Supply Side: Extremely Cautious Production Pace - As of February 20, 2026, the weekly production of rebar from 137 major steel mills was 1.7038 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 12,200 tons (0.72%) but a year-on-year decrease of 265,300 tons (13.47%) [3] - The production level post-Spring Festival remains low, reflecting a persistent lack of willingness among steel mills to resume production due to multiple factors, primarily profit margin pressures [3] - The anticipated crude steel production control policies for 2026 have made steel mills more cautious in their production plans, leading to a new normal of low supply, which provides a buffer for price stability [4] Demand Side: Signs of Recovery Beneath the Surface - The apparent weekly consumption of rebar was 411,600 tons as of February 20, 2026, a decrease of 607,500 tons (59.61%) week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 1.2746 million tons (75.59%) [5] - This consumption figure reflects the continuation of halted construction during the Spring Festival rather than a collapse in demand [5] - The real test for demand will come in the following weeks as workers return post-Lantern Festival and temperatures rise, determining if rebar consumption can quickly recover to normal levels [5] Inventory Side: Passive Accumulation at Absolute Low Levels - As of February 20, 2026, total rebar inventory was 7.1604 million tons, an increase of 1.2922 million tons (22.02%) week-on-week, but a year-on-year decrease of 1.3161 million tons (15.53%) [8] - The significant accumulation of inventory post-Spring Festival is a historical norm due to reduced production and halted sales, yet the current inventory level is relatively low compared to the past three years [8] Market Outlook - The current rebar fundamentals can be summarized as: extremely cautious supply providing price support, demand at a low point but showing signs of potential recovery, and manageable inventory levels that are lower year-on-year [11] - The recent bullish movement in the market reflects a collective expression of macro expectations, but whether this will lead to a sustained trend reversal depends on the realization of macro policies and actual demand recovery [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a stage of "weak reality, strong expectation" with inventory accumulation and weak demand pressuring short-term prices, but export profit improvement, steel mill production resilience, and policy expectations providing bottom support and limiting the downside space [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Price**: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures increased its open interest by 323 lots on Wednesday, with a trading volume of 523,081 lots, showing increased volume compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,185 yuan, and the high was 3,242 yuan. It rebounded and rose sharply after a significant reduction in positions in the afternoon. In terms of the moving average, it briefly broke through the 5-day moving average in the short term, but there was still pressure from the 30-day and 60-day moving averages in the medium term. It closed at 3,236 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan, a 1.19% increase [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream area of Shanghai was reported at 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -5 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The production of hot-rolled coils decreased slightly and remained stable. In the week of February 13, 2026, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 3.0776 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 79.14%, indicating strong production resilience of long-process steel mills [4] - **Demand**: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, terminal demand significantly shrank, and the apparent consumption continued to weaken. Before the festival, the inventory shifted from de-stocking to stockpiling, and the supply-demand contradiction shifted to the circulation link [4] - **Inventory**: The stockpiling accelerated, and the pressure was concentrated on the social end. As of February 13, 2026, the national social inventory of hot-rolled coils was 2.8045 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 21,200 tons; the steel mill inventory was 787,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons; the total inventory reached 3.592 million tons, showing a significant accumulation compared to before the festival. Although the absolute inventory level was still lower than the historical high, the stockpiling speed accelerated, and the market was cautious about the post-festival destocking rhythm [4] - **Policy**: There were internal and external disturbances, and policy expectations dominated the sentiment. Domestically, the "14th Five-Year Plan" was about to be launched in 2026, and with the approaching of the Two Sessions, market expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade-in increased, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the festival was unclear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, triggering concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export-oriented steel products. In terms of liquidity, the People's Bank of China conducted a 1-trillion-yuan 6-month outright reverse repurchase on February 13, releasing medium- and long-term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [4][5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro disturbances [6] Short-Term View Summary - The hot-rolled coil futures rebounded sharply with a significant reduction in positions and increased volume in the afternoon, mainly due to the continuous rise in the stock market and the emission reduction control faced by some steel mills in the north with the approaching of the Two Sessions, leading short sellers to choose to leave the market and wait and see. In the short term, it broke through the 5-day moving average, and in the medium term, attention should still be paid to the pressure near the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. It is recommended to be cautious. Fundamentally, the current hot-rolled coil futures are in a game stage of "weak reality, strong expectation" [6]

Supply - Domestic production is at a high level, with plans for the restart of some gas head units in the southwest in February, and a slight increase in operating rates is expected [5][17] - Overseas, Iran's two 1.65 million ton methanol plants at ZPC have restarted in February, maintaining 70% capacity; additional plants KIMIYA and SABALAN are also expected to restart soon, potentially leading to an earlier-than-usual return of imports [5][17] Demand - Overall profits in downstream sectors are poor, limiting the potential for demand growth; traditional downstream operations are gradually resuming after the holiday, but the low profitability constrains demand [6][18] Inventory - Coastal regions are maintaining high inventory levels; despite low methanol import volumes at the end of February and early March, the likelihood of significant inventory reduction in March has decreased due to the anticipated early restart of Iranian plants, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [7][19] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran are characterized by the US urging Iran to abandon its nuclear program while simultaneously deploying military assets to the region, creating uncertainty that supports market prices [4][16] Market Outlook - Methanol prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, which provide a certain premium, while high coastal inventories, early restarts of Iranian plants, and low downstream operating rates continue to exert pressure on supply and demand; short-term fluctuations are expected, with a need to monitor geopolitical developments and changes in methanol supply and demand [8][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore fundamentals show that the arrival volume has decreased, and the supply pressure has eased. The demand side has stable rigid demand. Although the port is still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The contradictions in the fundamentals are not prominent, but the futures contracts are in a back structure with a positive basis and a futures discount, and the overall market remains volatile [4]. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly during the day, closing at 783 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan/ton or 1.07% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 305,000 lots, the open interest was 521,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.969 billion yuan. The futures market tested the short - term support level near 780 again [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at the port, such as Qingdao Port PB powder, dropped 5 yuan to 789 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder dropped 5 yuan to 675 yuan/ton. The swaps main contract was at 102.8 (-1.05) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices declined slightly [1]. - Basis and spread: The converted price of Qingdao Port PB powder on the futures market was 822.5 yuan/ton, and the basis was 39.5 yuan/ton, with a slight expansion. The spread between the May and September contracts of iron ore was 17 yuan, and the spread between the September and January contracts was 12.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and a positive basis. The futures market should be treated with an oscillatory mindset, and attention should be paid to further testing near the lower support, with limited downward space [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries declined. The arrival volume continued to weaken, and supply was expected to be affected by weather. - Demand: The molten iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills weakened, the rigid demand was stable, the inventory replenishment speed of steel mills accelerated, and the steel mill inventory increased rapidly. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of inventory replenishment demand. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory increased significantly. With the approaching Spring Festival, the inventory replenishment speed accelerated, and the total inventory pressure was still increasing. The short - term supply pressure eased, but the inventory pressure increased. The commodity sentiment was strong, and the pre - festival inventory replenishment on the demand side supported the iron ore price. The supply - demand situation in reality remained to be verified [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: This week, the basic pattern of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations" continued. The pace of domestic demand recovery was still slow, prices remained low, the upstream improvement was limited in being transmitted to the downstream, and the medium - and long - term financing willingness of residents and enterprises was weak. The previous growth - stabilizing tools were still being implemented. The macro - environment was mainly for support, and the market still needed to wait for further confirmation of policy effects and data [3]. - Overseas: US consumption remained resilient, but the income growth rate slowed down, the savings rate was at a low level, and consumption relied more on credit and employment stability, with weakening internal momentum. In terms of inflation, core inflation continued to cool down, the pressure on the commodity side eased, but the stickiness of the service item remained. In this context, the market's trading focus shifted to the expectation of a change in the Fed's leadership, especially the possibility of a hawkish candidate taking office. Overall, the overseas macro - environment was still conducive to the resilience of risk assets, but policy uncertainty increased, and asset pricing differentiation widened [3].

Economic Indicators - January manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a return to contraction territory[3] - January non-manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.4%, also down 0.8 percentage points, reflecting a similar trend[3] - Composite PMI dropped to 49.8%, a decline of 0.9 percentage points, suggesting overall economic activity is contracting[3] Demand and Supply Dynamics - New orders index fell by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, indicating a return to contraction in demand[3] - The production index for January was 50.6%, down 1.1 percentage points, showing a slowdown in manufacturing activity[4] - New export orders index decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 47.8%, signaling weakened external demand[4] Sector Performance - Service sector PMI fell to 49.5%, down 0.2 percentage points, weaker than seasonal trends[6] - Construction PMI dropped significantly by 4.0 percentage points to 48.8%, attributed to adverse weather and the upcoming Spring Festival[6] - Employment indices for manufacturing, services, and construction showed minimal changes, indicating persistent employment pressure[5] Future Economic Outlook - The GDP target for 2026 is projected to be between 4.5% and 5%, suggesting a need for proactive and expansionary policies[7] - Local government meetings are focusing on GDP targets, with a weighted average of 5% across 20 regions, reflecting a downward adjustment of 0.5 percentage points in major provinces[8] - Key areas of focus include fiscal policy acceleration, potential interest rate cuts by the central bank, and early commencement of major projects[7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The current asphalt market shows a typical pattern of "strong expectations, weak reality." The upward movement of the futures market is mainly driven by the expected increase in raw material costs due to geopolitical factors, while the spot market is constrained by weak fundamentals, leading to a significant weakening of the basis. The deeply discounted structure may attract arbitrage funds, potentially bringing selling pressure to far - month contracts. The main upward driver for prices remains the cost side, and the key risk lies in the confirmation of the "weak reality" [54]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In January, affected by tight raw materials and strong oil prices, asphalt prices rebounded from the bottom, with a cumulative increase of 14.5% since the beginning of the year. Tensions in the Middle East and restricted imports of diluted asphalt supported the market [6]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - **Geopolitical Tensions**: The risk of intensified geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has increased, with potential impacts on the oil market. The outcome of US military intervention will determine the direction of oil prices. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues in a pattern of "fighting while negotiating," with limited short - term direct impact on oil prices [9][10]. - **OPEC+ Policy**: OPEC+ continued to suspend production increases in January and reaffirmed the plan to suspend production increases in the first quarter. The group's crude oil production decreased month - on - month in December. The suspension of production increases provides support for oil prices [13]. - **Fed Policy**: The Fed paused interest rate cuts, but there were internal disagreements. The market expects no interest rate cuts in the next two meetings under Powell, but Trump's potential new Fed chair appointment may increase the market's expectation of rate cuts [16]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: In January, domestic asphalt production decreased month - on - month, and refinery operating rates also declined. If raw material imports are restricted, the cost of the industry may rise, and the operations of local refineries may be restricted [17][23]. - **Demand**: In January, domestic asphalt shipments decreased month - on - month, and the utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity declined seasonally. The demand is expected to pick up after the Spring Festival [25][27]. - **Imports and Exports**: In December, asphalt imports decreased month - on - month with a slight decline in the average import price, while exports increased month - on - month with a slight decline in the average export price [32][37]. - **Inventory**: In January, factory inventories increased slightly, and social inventories entered a cumulative cycle. Factory inventories may face further accumulation pressure in the off - season [42][46]. - **Price Difference**: In January, the cracking spread of asphalt remained high, and the processing profit of diluted asphalt rebounded. The basis of asphalt weakened significantly under the "strong expectations, weak reality" background [50].