Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Core Views Methanol - Market is currently following a "weak reality" trading logic, with the core contradiction centered on high port inventories. The 01 contract faces challenges in inventory digestion, and the weak reality pattern may continue until the implementation of gas restrictions in Iran. The 05 contract is expected to see significant inventory reduction, and opportunities for MTO profit contraction in the 05 contract can be focused on later [3]. Polyester - PX supply is generally stable, but demand may be affected by potential PTA production cuts. The price rebound space is limited, and strategies include reducing long positions on rallies and short - selling above 6800, as well as attempting to narrow the PX - SC spread. - PTA is expected to have a slightly loose supply - demand situation with a small inventory build - up. The price rebound space is limited, and strategies include reducing long positions and short - selling on rallies, and treating TA1 - 5 as a rolling reverse spread. - Ethylene glycol is expected to face high inventory build - up in November - December, with significant upward pressure. Strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies and reverse - spreading EG1 - 5 on rallies. - Short - fiber supply is relatively high in the short term, but demand may weaken seasonally. The price rebound space is limited, and strategies are similar to PTA, with the focus on narrowing the processing margin on rallies. - Bottle - chip supply and demand remain in a loose pattern, and it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory build - up period. Strategies are similar to PTA, and the main contract processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [6]. Polyolefins - PP supply increase is slowing down due to more unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase as maintenance peaks. Demand has improved, but there is still significant pressure with increasing supply and decreasing demand. The 01 contract has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may have long - term low - buying opportunities, and the monthly spread is suitable for reverse - spreading [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda supply is expected to increase in November, with weak demand support. The price is expected to be weak and stable, and the overall trend is bearish. - PVC supply - demand remains in an oversupply situation, with continuous supply pressure from new capacity and weak demand in the traditional off - season. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom, and the trading strategy is to short on rebounds [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose in November, with limited demand support and increasing port inventories. The price driving force is weak, but attention should be paid to device changes due to low valuation. - Styrene supply may slightly decrease in November, with overall stable demand. The cost support is weakening, and the price driving force is limited. The strategy is to be bearish on EB12 price rebounds [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2125 on November 6, down 0.75% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2226, down 0.45%. The MA15 spread was - 101, up 6.32%. The Taicang basis was - 30, up 25%. Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Taicang showed different changes, with the Taicang - Inner Mongolia and Taicang - Luoyang regional spreads also changing [1]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory was 38.641%, up 2.75%; port inventory was 151.7 million tons, up 0.71%; social inventory was 190.4%, up 1.11% [2]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 76.09%, up 0.31%; overseas enterprise operating rate was 70.7%, down 2.68%. Downstream, the MTO device operating rate was 84.98%, up 1.09%, while the acetic acid operating rate was 72.3%, down 1.15% [3]. Polyester Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream crude oil, naphtha, and other prices showed different changes. Downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also had various fluctuations, such as POY150/48 cash flow down 31.2% [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory was 56.2 million tons, up 7.5%. The comprehensive operating rate of polyester was 91.7%, up 0.3%. Different products' operating rates also showed different trends [6]. Polyolefins Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6805 on November 6, down 0.13%; L2605 closed at 6886, down 0.22%. PP2601 closed at 6471, down 0.31%; PP2605 closed at 6592, down 0.20%. The L15 spread was - 81, down 6.90%; the PP15 spread was - 121, up 6.14% [8]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE enterprise inventory was 49.0 million tons, up 17.84%; social inventory was 52.7 million tons, down 3.30%. PP enterprise inventory was 60.0 million tons, up 0.81%; trader inventory was 22.9 million tons, up 3.91%. PE device operating rate was 82.6%, up 2.13%; PP device operating rate was 77.8%, up 0.9% [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2500, unchanged; Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2500, unchanged. The price of PVC in East China showed a decline [11]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate was 88.3%, up 3.3%; PVC total operating rate was 77.1%, up 4.5%. The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC also had different changes [11]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong increased, while PVC total social inventory decreased slightly [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed. Pure benzene and styrene prices also showed different trends, such as pure benzene East China spot price down 0.4% [12]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 12.10 million tons, up 42.4%; styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 17.93 million tons, down 7.1%. The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries also had various changes [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Methanol Market - The current methanol market is trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction centered on high port inventories. The 01 contract faces challenges in inventory digestion, and the weak reality pattern may continue until Iranian gas restrictions are implemented. The 05 contract is expected to see significant inventory reduction, so attention can be focused on the MTO profit shrinkage opportunity of the 05 contract [1][3]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is generally stable with some plant overhauls offset by xylene supplements. Demand has some support in the short - term, but the November supply - demand is expected to be loose, and price drivers are limited. PTA may have a slight inventory build - up, and its price rebound space is restricted. Ethylene glycol is expected to have a high inventory build - up in November - December, facing upward pressure. Short - fiber supply remains high in the short - term, but demand may weaken seasonally, and its price rebound space is limited. Bottle - chip supply and demand are in a loose pattern, and it follows cost fluctuations [6]. Polyolefin Market - PP supply increase is slowing due to more unplanned overhauls, while PE supply is expected to increase as overhauls peak. Demand has improved, but overall, there is pressure from increasing supply and decreasing demand. The 01 contract has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may offer long - term low - buying opportunities, and the month - spread is biased towards reverse arbitrage [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Market - Caustic soda supply is expected to increase in November, with weak demand support, and its price is expected to be weakly stable. PVC supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Market - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose in November, with limited demand support and increasing port inventories. Its price driver is weak. Styrene supply may slightly decrease in November, demand is expected to change little, and its price driver is also limited [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2125 on November 6, down 0.75% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2226, down 0.45%. The MA15 spread was - 101, up 6.32%. The太仓 basis was - 30, up 25%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang all had different changes [1]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory was 38.641% (a 2.75% increase), port inventory was 151.7 million tons (a 0.71% increase), and social inventory was 190.4% (a 1.11% increase) [2]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate was 76.09%, up 0.31%; overseas was 70.7%, down 2.68%. The downstream MTO device operating rate was 84.98%, up 1.09%, while the acetic acid operating rate was 72.3%, down 1.15% [3]. Polyester Industry Chain Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (January) was $63.38 per barrel, down 0.2%; WTI crude oil (December) was $59.43 per barrel, down 0.3%. CFR Japan naphtha was $576 per ton, down 0.3% [6]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price was 6515 yuan/ton, with a cash - flow of 94 yuan/ton, down 31.2%. The bottle - chip futures PR2601 price was 5736 yuan/ton, up 1.3% [6]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate was 78.1%, down 0.5%; PTA operating rate was 78.0%, down 1.0%; MEG comprehensive operating rate was 76.2%, up 4.0% [6]. Polyolefin Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6805, down 0.13%; PP2601 closed at 6471, down 0.31%. The L15 spread was - 81, down 6.90%; the PP15 spread was - 121, up 6.14% [8]. Inventory - PE enterprise inventory was 49.0 million tons, up 17.84%; PP enterprise inventory was 60.0 million tons, up 0.81% [8]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - PE device operating rate was 82.6%, up 2.13%; PP device operating rate was 77.8%, up 0.9% [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged. V2601 closed at 4630, down 0.2%; the V basis was - 110, down 12.2% [11]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate was 88.3%, up 3.3%; PVC total operating rate was 77.1%, up 4.5%. The demand of caustic soda's main downstream, alumina, was weak, and PVC demand was in the off - season [11]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda inventory in East China plants increased by 18.9%, and PVC total social inventory decreased by 1.8% [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (December) was $63.38 per barrel, down 0.2%; CFR Japan naphtha was $576 per ton, down 0.3%. Pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5300 yuan/ton, unchanged [12]. Product Prices and Cash Flows - Pure benzene East China spot was 5389 yuan/ton, down 0.4%; styrene East China spot was 6310 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. EB cash - flow (non - integrated) was - 213 yuan/ton, down 1.6% [12]. Operating Rates and Inventories - Domestic pure benzene operating rate was 74.1%, up 1.9%; styrene operating rate was 66.7%, down 3.7%. Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports was 12.10 million tons, up 42.4% [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the liquor industry is currently in a state of "low expectations, weak reality," with significant declines in stock performance, particularly in the white liquor sector [1][4] - The Wind white liquor index fell by 1.23% this week, closing at 59,343.67 points, with Shanxi Fenjiu experiencing the largest drop of 5.88% [1][4] - The upcoming third-quarter reports for the liquor industry are expected to validate the current market conditions, with concerns about potential further declines in performance [4] Group 2 - The beer sector is also facing challenges, with regional beer companies reporting lower-than-expected earnings, despite maintaining stable growth overall [4][5] - Zhujiang Beer reported a 17.05% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first three quarters, but its third-quarter revenue saw a decline of 1.34%, marking the first such drop since 2018 [4][5] - Yanjing Beer achieved a revenue of 4.875 billion yuan in the third quarter, a year-on-year growth of approximately 1.55%, but faced pressure in market expansion due to weak consumer demand [5]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economic "weak reality" continues, and the economic indicators in Q4 face the unfavorable impact of the higher base after September 24 last year. The central bank's attitude of caring for liquidity remains unchanged, which supports the bond market. However, the "anti-involution" policy and the high prosperity of some technology industries, along with the easing of geopolitical disturbances and the Fed's interest rate cut, make the "strong expectation" the dominant force in the macro narrative. The potential adjustment of public bond fund redemption fees and tax policies exacerbates bond market volatility. In the short term, bond market sentiment is still sluggish, but treasury bonds have an irreplaceable role in hedging potential expectation differences [3][57]. - In terms of operations, in the short term, investors are advised to be cautious about the TL contract and hold a small amount of long positions in bond futures. The TF contract may be the best option. For arbitrage, if the market expectation is revised or extreme sentiment causes an over - adjustment in the bond market, the TL contract can be considered for flattening the curve and reverse arbitrage operations, but the timing needs to be observed [4][59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Trend Review - In September, the bond market performance was somewhat differentiated. The short - and medium - term bonds were generally in a volatile range, while the long - term bonds adjusted significantly under the influence of "strong expectations" and bond fund redemption pressure, and the yield curve became steeper. As of September 29, the monthly returns of the TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were - 0.09%, - 0.03%, - 0.15%, and - 2.44% respectively. The overall weak bond market sentiment made the market valuation slightly low, and the IRR of the main contracts of bond futures at all maturities was around 1.3 - 1.4% [6]. 3.2 "Weak Reality" Continues, "Strong Expectation" Dominates the Narrative - The domestic economic data in August released in September continued to weaken marginally, with both supply and demand falling short of expectations. Investment, consumption, and foreign trade all showed different degrees of decline. The market believes that the "stall" of the investment end is a phased weakening driven by "anti - involution" and a policy choice. With the Fed's interest rate cut in September, the potential spill - over effect of overseas monetary policy and the high prosperity of domestic high - tech industries make the "strong expectation" the dominant force in the macro narrative, which is reflected in the bond yield curve [11][18][22]. 3.3 Price Repair is Differentiated, Downward Transmission Needs Observation - In August, the CPI was - 0.4% year - on - year and 0.0% month - on - month, both lower than expected. The decline in the year - on - year CPI was mainly due to weak food prices, while the month - on - month decline was more affected by seasonal factors. The core CPI reached a new high this year, but its repair momentum still needs to be improved. The PPI showed signs of bottom - up repair, but the performance of upstream production materials and downstream living materials was still differentiated. The profit of industrial enterprises increased significantly in August, but it was mainly due to the low base last year, and the improvement in demand was not obvious. In the future, the PPI may continue to rise year - on - year, but the price transmission and the base effect need to be observed [23][24][30]. 3.4 Social Financing Growth Peaked and Declined, M1 Growth Slowed - In August, new RMB loans were lower than expected, and the social financing growth showed signs of peaking. Although the real estate sales data in September showed marginal improvement, considering the high base last year and the front - loaded fiscal efforts this year, it is likely that the social financing growth has peaked this year. The slowdown in social financing affected deposit creation and money supply. The M1 growth continued to rise but is expected to have limited upward space [32][36][43]. 3.5 The Central Bank Cares for Liquidity, but Further Easing is Difficult in the Short Term - In September, the market capital tightened slightly. The central bank took measures to maintain market liquidity, but the current capital price is within the central bank's acceptable range, and further significant decline requires a significant increase in market interest rate cut expectations. The central bank's attitude towards the economic situation is more optimistic, and it emphasizes the implementation of existing policies and the prevention of capital idling [46][47][48]. 3.6 Bond Fund Fees May be Adjusted, Preventive Redemption Increases Market Volatility - In September, the CSRC revised the regulations on public bond fund sales fees, which may affect the stability of bond fund liabilities. As the quarter - end approached, preventive redemptions increased, exacerbating market volatility. If the final regulations are similar to the draft, the bond market may experience a phased over - adjustment; otherwise, the market sentiment may stabilize [55][56]. 3.7 Future Outlook - The "weak reality" of the domestic economy continues, and the bond market is supported by the central bank's liquidity care. However, the "strong expectation" dominates the macro narrative, and the potential adjustment of bond fund fees and tax policies increases market volatility. Treasury bonds can hedge potential expectation differences. In the short term, investors are advised to be cautious about the TL contract and hold a small amount of long positions in bond futures. For arbitrage, the timing needs to be observed [57][59].

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a mixed performance with more stocks declining than rising, despite the index approaching 3900 points, reflecting a sense of anxiety as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision approaches [1][3] - There is a notable trend of capital flowing into Hong Kong stocks, which are performing better than A-shares, indicating a structured market behavior where overseas funds typically invest in ADRs, then Hong Kong stocks, and finally A-shares [5][6] Investment Trends - Technology stocks remain favored by incoming foreign capital, as evidenced by the historical high achieved by "Ningde Times" [5] - Recent news from foreign media regarding advancements in DUV production and new data centers by China Unicom has generated positive sentiment in the market [5] Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is characterized by a "strong expectation, weak reality" scenario, leading to volatile trading behaviors as investors react emotionally rather than strategically [6][8] - Institutional funds are becoming increasingly active, signaling a generally optimistic outlook for the market, with stocks in the "active zone" reaching new highs [8][10] Institutional Behavior - The phenomenon of "three consecutive increases" and "five consecutive increases" in institutional activity indicates a growing engagement from institutional investors [10] - Despite the increased activity, there remains a significant number of stocks in the "watching zone," suggesting that not all stocks are benefiting from the positive market sentiment [13] Data Insights - The frequent rotation of market hotspots has led to some investor frustration, but the underlying issue is a lack of access to real data, which hinders understanding of market trends [16] - The concept of "institutional inventory" suggests that stocks with prolonged institutional support are likely to experience significant price movements, and recent "shakeout" phenomena indicate strong institutional backing [18]

Group 1 - The asphalt market has entered the consumption peak season, traditionally from August to October, but this year it was delayed to September due to widespread rainfall across the country [1] - Despite being in the consumption peak season, the market is characterized by "active trading but weak prices," with asphalt prices not rising due to inventory depletion [1] - As of September 15, the low-price negotiation range for asphalt was 3520 to 3650 yuan/ton, with a slight increase, while the high-price negotiation range saw a small decline [1] Group 2 - The futures market is experiencing a decline in bullish sentiment due to weak fundamentals, leading to pressure on asphalt prices [2] - The International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration have both lowered global oil demand forecasts for the next two years, which weakens cost support for asphalt futures [2] - Despite the current weak market conditions, geopolitical risks and global trade tensions could lead to sudden increases in oil prices, potentially driving asphalt prices up [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In August, the fundamentals of PVC were bearish, with social inventories increasing to the same level as the previous year. The market is pessimistic about future exports due to India's higher - than - expected anti - dumping duties. In September, although the fundamentals are weak, the absolute price is low, and the room for further decline is limited. Key factors to watch include持仓量, exports, and inventories. The short - term trend is weakly volatile, and specific trading strategies are proposed [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Next Month's Outlook - **Position Volume**: PVC, as a traditional short - allocation variety, has seen its 01 contract's position volume approaching 1.2 million lots again. If there are positive news from the real estate or coking coal sectors, a phased rebound may occur due to short - covering [3]. - **Exports**: From January to July 2025, PVC exports increased by 57% year - on - year, and the export dependence rose to 19%. With the anti - dumping duties and BIS certification policies announced, the focus is on the implementation rhythm of anti - dumping duties [3]. - **Inventories**: The inventory structure of the upstream and mid - stream is differentiated. Enterprise inventories are not under high pressure, so spot prices are relatively resistant to decline. Social inventories are continuously increasing. If there is a rush to export in September and the peak domestic demand season arrives, the inflection point of social inventory reduction may appear [3]. 3.2 Operation Strategy - In the short term, the market is weakly volatile. Short positions should be gradually closed at low prices. For the V2601 contract, the focus range is [4750, 5150]. - The futures price is higher than the spot price. Industrial players should conduct hedging at high prices [4]. 3.3 Market Review - In August, PVC showed a unilateral downward trend. The V2601 contract fluctuated between 4887 and 5221, with an amplitude of 334 points. The opening price was 5167 yuan/ton (down 9 points or 0.17% from the end of last month), and the closing price was 4907 yuan/ton (down 134 points from the previous month's closing price). The market was affected by macro news and the release of new production capacity, as well as India's anti - dumping duties [7]. - The position volume of the main contract approached 1.2 million lots again, indicating intense capital games [8][10]. - As of August 28, the V01 Changzhou basis was - 246 yuan/ton, and the warrant volume was increasing, indicating strong willingness of industrial players to sell and hedge at high prices [13]. - As of August 28, the V9 - 1 spread was - 151 yuan/ton, and the V3 - 5 spread was - 232 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread continued the inter - month reverse spread, and the 3 - 5 spread strengthened month - on - month [16]. 3.4 Supply - The capacity utilization rate has remained above 75% since the beginning of the year, and the cumulative output from week 1 to 34 increased by 4.4% year - on - year. From July to September, new production capacity of 1.1 million tons was put into operation. Although the new maintenance in September is slightly greater than the restart volume, the supply side is still under pressure [19]. - In September, only Zhongtai, Taizhou Liancheng, and Shaanxi Beiyuan with a total capacity of 2.25 million tons have maintenance plans, while the restart of 800,000 tons of capacity by Haipinglevel and Formosa Plastics is planned, so the positive impact of maintenance is limited [20]. 3.5 Demand - **Real Estate**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of real estate new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas were - 19.4%, - 9.2%, - 16.5%, and - 4% respectively. The decline in new construction area narrowed, while the declines in construction, completion, and sales areas widened. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 5.85% [23]. - **Domestic and Foreign Demand**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 11.87 million tons (down 2.8% year - on - year), indicating weak domestic demand. Exports were 2.29 million tons (up 830,000 tons or 57% year - on - year). In July, exports were 330,000 tons (up 113% year - on - year). However, due to India's anti - dumping duties, future exports to India may decline [26]. 3.6 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of Thursday, enterprise inventory was 345,000 tons (up 19% year - on - year), with 10 consecutive weeks of inventory reduction. Since July, enterprises have increased pre - sales, and the inventory has dropped to the lowest level in the same period in the past four years [29]. - **Social Inventory**: As of Thursday, large and small sample social inventories were 450,000 tons and 720,000 tons respectively. Social inventories have increased to the same level as the previous year, and if the current inventory increase rate continues, it is expected to reach a record high at the end of September [32]. 3.7 Profit From July, due to the expectation of anti - involution policies, the profits of chlor - alkali enterprises have been significantly repaired. However, considering the future supply - demand pattern, there is still room for profit compression for upstream enterprises [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal market is in a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality", with the disk continuing the "Contango" structure. The short - term price of coking coal will mainly fluctuate and consolidate at a high level. The coke market has intensified the game between steel and coke enterprises, and the short - term coke disk will fluctuate following coking coal [32][35] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In August, the double - coke disk reached a stage high and then fluctuated weakly. Before the position limit of the 01 contract by the exchange, the trading volume of coking coal soared. After the position limit, the trading volume decreased and the disk volatility narrowed. As the speculative sentiment cooled and the 09 contract was about to enter the delivery month, the market trading gradually returned to reality. Although the procurement willingness of steel mills, coking enterprises and spot - futures traders weakened and the inventory showed a small accumulation inflection point, the high - level iron - water production supported the consumption of double - coke, and the price decline space was limited. The overall price fluctuated within a range in August [7] 2. Data Analysis Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of August 29, the operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 36.52%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%, and the daily output of clean coal was 25.98 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.72 tons. The operating rate of 523 sample mine enterprises was 84.04%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.18%, and the daily output of clean coal was 75.32 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.54 tons. The supply of coking coal was relatively stable with limited incremental space [10] - In July 2025, China imported 962.3 million tons of coking coal, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2% and a month - on - month increase of 5.7%. The import concentration increased. The import volume came from Mongolia, Russia, Canada, Australia and Indonesia. The total import volume of coking coal this year was less than that of the same period last year [11] Coking Coal Inventory - As of the week of August 29, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 283.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.24 million tons and an increase of 35.36 million tons from the beginning of the month; the clean coal inventory of sample coal washing plants was 289.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 147.53 million tons and a slight increase of 3.47 million tons from the beginning of the month; the port coking coal inventory was 275.35 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.98 million tons and a slight decrease of 6.76 million tons from the beginning of the month. The inventory pressure was significantly reduced [15] - As of August 29, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 961.27 million tons, an increase of 109.59 million tons compared with the same period last year, and the available inventory days were 11.2 days, an increase of 1.16 days compared with the same period last year; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 811.85 million tons, an increase of 77.39 million tons compared with the same period last year, and the available inventory days were 13.25 days, an increase of 1.49 days compared with the same period last year. The downstream replenishment rhythm of coking coal slowed down [18] Coke Production - As of the week of August 29, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.36%, 3.74% higher than the same period last year, and the daily output of metallurgical coke was 64.52 million tons, an increase of 0.77 million tons compared with the same period last year; the coke capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 84.99%, a decrease of 1.72% compared with the same period last year, and the daily output of coke was 46.09 million tons, a decrease of 0.87 million tons compared with the same period last year. The overall capacity utilization rate decreased significantly at the end of the month due to environmental protection requirements [22] Coke Demand and Inventory - As of the week of August 29, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, an increase of 59.74% compared with the same period last year and a slight decrease from the beginning of the month; the daily output of hot metal was 240.13 million tons, an increase of 19.24 million tons compared with the same period last year and little change from the beginning of the month; the weekly coke consumption was 108.06 million tons, an increase of 8.66 million tons compared with the same period last year and little change from the beginning of the month. The coke consumption was supported [25] - As of the week of August 29, the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 65.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.62 million tons and continued to decline from the beginning of the month; the coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 610.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 68.19 million tons; the port coke inventory was 212.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.94 million tons. The inventory pressure of independent coking enterprises was reduced [27] Coke Profit - As of the week of August 29, the average profit per ton of coke of independent coking enterprises was 55 yuan/ton. After several rounds of price increases and the volatile operation of coking coal prices, the profits of coking enterprises improved significantly. The game between steel and coke enterprises intensified, and the eighth round of price increase was not implemented [28] 3. Future Market Outlook - The coking coal market is in a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality". The short - term price will mainly fluctuate and consolidate at a high level. Pay attention to the incremental situation on the supply side after the parade [32] - The profits of coking enterprises have improved significantly. The game between steel and coke enterprises has intensified. The short - term coke disk will fluctuate following coking coal [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Carbonate Lithium**: The spot price of carbonate lithium is falling, and the futures price has also dropped significantly. The "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season is approaching, and downstream demand has certain rigid support. The supply reduction speed has slowed down, and the inventory decline rate is slower than expected. The price is still hard to stabilize, and it is recommended to seize hedging opportunities [2][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply is steadily increasing, while the demand is weak. The inventory is difficult to decrease, and the spot price is expected to continue to operate weakly and stably. The futures price is in a confrontation between weak reality and strong policy expectations, and is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Polysilicon**: There is a confrontation between strong policy expectations and weak reality, and the support of policy expectations has weakened. The demand is weak, but the spot price has not changed yet. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider participating with a stop - loss [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Pressure Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 11 | Driven by news | 72,000 - 75,000 | 88,000 - 90,000 | Wide - range volatile operation | Seize selling hedging opportunities, downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stockpiling or buying hedging [15] | | Industrial Silicon 11 | Confrontation between weak reality and strong policy expectations | 8,200 - 8,300 | 8,900 - 9,000 | Range - bound oscillation | Adopt a range - bound thinking, and it is more recommended to sell slightly out - of - the - money put options at low levels [15] | | Polysilicon 11 | Insufficient support from policy expectations, increasing concerns about weak demand reality | 45,000 - 46,000 | 52,000 - 53,000 | High - level oscillation | Wait and see [15] | 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 78,140 | - 0.91% | 805,585 | 347,063 | - 4,259 | 28,957 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,570 | 0.53% | 293,193 | 273,754 | - 1,804 | 50,656 | | Polysilicon | 49,665 | - 0.10% | 376,304 | 143,912 | - 10,625 | 6,880 | [16] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: This week, the production of carbonate lithium was 19,030 tons, a decrease of 108 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory was 141,136 tons, a decrease of 407 tons. The supply reduction speed has slowed down, and the inventory decline rate is slower than expected [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season is approaching, and downstream demand has certain rigid support. After the rapid increase in downstream inventory, the probability of further large - scale replenishment may decrease [2]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: The supply is steadily increasing, and the industry operating rate has recovered to over 60%. The inventory is difficult to decrease, and the exchange warehouse receipts increased last week [6]. - **Downstream Situation**: Downstream demand is weak. The demand for polysilicon is mainly for rigid procurement, the demand for organic silicon is weak, and the aluminum alloy is in the traditional off - season. Although the export of industrial silicon is increasing, it has limited impact on the overall demand [6]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: No specific production and inventory data are provided, but it is mentioned that the battery cell inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks [9]. - **Downstream Situation**: The new photovoltaic installed capacity has declined significantly since June, and domestic installation projects have been postponed. The overseas stocking window for battery cells is coming to an end, and the demand is weak [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro data in July showed an overall decline, and the recovery momentum of the domestic economy still needs to be strengthened. The economy presents a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum, with greater pressure on nominal GDP than real GDP. [3] - "Expanding domestic demand and combating involution" will be an important, long - term, and continuous policy approach. The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and market sentiment is continuously improving. In 2025, the macro economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward - repair trend, although the process may be tortuous. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Declined Month - on - Month - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.3% (down 0.9 percentage points), medium - scale enterprises' was 49.5% (up 0.9 percentage points), and small - scale enterprises' was 46.4% (down 0.9 percentage points). [4] - Among the 5 sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below it. [4] 2. CPI was Flat Year - on - Year and PPI Fell 3.6% Year - on - Year in July - In July 2025, the national CPI was flat year - on - year, with a 0.4% month - on - month increase. Food prices decreased while non - food prices increased. [8][9] - The PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Industries such as coal, ferrous metals, and petrochemicals had large year - on - year declines, dragging down the PPI. [11] 3. Both Exports and Imports Rebounded in July - In July, China's exports increased 7.2% year - on - year, imports increased 4.1% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was $98.24 billion, a decrease of $16.53 billion. [14] - Exports to the EU, ASEAN countries, and Japan increased, while the decline in exports to the US narrowed. Exports are likely to remain strong in 2025. [16] 4. Credit Demand was Weak, and M1 and M2 Growth Rates Further Rebounded - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Credit demand from residents and enterprises was insufficient, but the increase in government bond issuance offset it. [18][25] - At the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan (up 8.8% year - on - year), M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan (up 5.6% year - on - year), and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to 3.2%. [23] 5. Industrial Production was Stable, and Consumption Growth Declined - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, lower than expected. [26] - In 2025, from January to July, the growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate development investment all declined. [30] 6. The Growth Rate of Real Estate Sales Declined, but it was Still at the Bottoming - Out Stage - From January to July, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 4.0% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased 6.5% year - on - year. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. [32] - The inventory of commercial housing decreased slightly. The "market bottom" of this round of real estate downward cycle is emerging, and the drag on the macro economy will significantly narrow. [33][37] 7. Summary and Outlook - The macro - economic data in July were weak, and the domestic economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. The economy presents a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. [38] - "Expanding domestic demand and combating involution" will be an important long - term policy. In 2025, the macro economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward - repair trend. [40]