Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core Views - For glass and soda ash, the supply - demand pattern of soda ash is bearish, with expected bottom - side oscillations. Glass prices may face pressure in the medium - to - long term, especially after December [1]. - For PVC and caustic soda, the caustic soda price is expected to be weak, and PVC is likely to continue its bottom - weakening trend due to supply - demand imbalances [2]. - For LLDPE and PP, the fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [4]. - For methanol, port destocking expectations are strengthened, and the price has bottom - side support [6]. - For crude oil, short - term oil prices are expected to continue range - bound oscillations between $60 - 65 per barrel [11]. - For natural rubber, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and rubber prices are expected to be weakly volatile [12]. - For pure benzene and styrene, pure benzene prices may face upward pressure, and styrene is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation in the short term [13]. - For the polyester industry chain, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip all have their own supply - demand situations and price trends, with corresponding trading strategies proposed [14]. - For urea, no clear core view on price trends is provided, but supply and inventory data are presented [15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot prices in different regions remained stable on December 4, 2025. Futures prices of glass 2601 and soda ash 2601 decreased, while the basis of 01 contracts for both increased [1]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and float - glass daily melting volume decreased, and photovoltaic daily melting volume also declined [1]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventories and soda ash factory and delivery - warehouse inventories decreased [1]. - **Real Estate Data**: New - construction area, construction area, and sales area declined year - on - year, while the completion area increased [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: Some PVC and caustic soda prices decreased on December 3, 2025, and the basis and spread of some contracts changed [2]. - **Export**: The export profit of caustic soda increased, while that of PVC decreased [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's overall开工 rate decreased slightly, and the PVC开工 rate increased [2]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of liquid caustic soda in some regions and PVC upstream factories increased [2]. LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures contracts decreased on December 3, 2025, and the spreads between some contracts changed [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PE装置开工率 increased, and the PP粉料开工率 increased, while the downstream weighted开工 rate of PE decreased slightly, and that of PP increased slightly [4]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise and social inventories of PE and PP decreased [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices decreased on December 3, 2025, and the basis and spread of some contracts changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 and overseas enterprise开工率 decreased, while some downstream开工率 increased [6]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased on December 3, 2025, while SC crude oil prices decreased. The spreads between different contracts of crude oil and refined oil changed [11]. - **Market Situation**: Due to the Ukraine - Russia situation and EIA data, oil prices first rose and then fell, and short - term oil prices are expected to range - bound oscillate [11]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Some natural rubber spot prices decreased on December 3, 2025, and the basis and spread of some contracts changed [12]. - **Production and Consumption**: The production of natural rubber in some regions decreased, and the开工率 of some downstream industries changed [12]. - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber increased [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products and styrene - related products changed on December 3, 2025, and the basis, spread, and cash - flow of some contracts changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased, and the styrene inventory decreased [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工 rate of some industries in the pure benzene and styrene industry chains changed [13]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products, polyester products, and related spreads and cash - flows changed on December 3, 2025 [14]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory increased, and the arrival expectation also increased [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The开工 rate of some industries in the polyester industry chain changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [14]. Urea - **Prices and Spreads**: Urea futures prices and spot prices in different regions changed slightly on December 3, 2025, and the basis, spread, and cross - regional spread changed [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily output and the production enterprise开工率 increased, and the factory - warehouse inventory decreased [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. Core Views Methanol - Market is currently following a "weak reality" trading logic, with the core contradiction centered on high port inventories. The 01 contract faces challenges in inventory digestion, and the weak reality pattern may continue until the implementation of gas restrictions in Iran. The 05 contract is expected to see significant inventory reduction, and opportunities for MTO profit contraction in the 05 contract can be focused on later [3]. Polyester - PX supply is generally stable, but demand may be affected by potential PTA production cuts. The price rebound space is limited, and strategies include reducing long positions on rallies and short - selling above 6800, as well as attempting to narrow the PX - SC spread. - PTA is expected to have a slightly loose supply - demand situation with a small inventory build - up. The price rebound space is limited, and strategies include reducing long positions and short - selling on rallies, and treating TA1 - 5 as a rolling reverse spread. - Ethylene glycol is expected to face high inventory build - up in November - December, with significant upward pressure. Strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options on rallies and reverse - spreading EG1 - 5 on rallies. - Short - fiber supply is relatively high in the short term, but demand may weaken seasonally. The price rebound space is limited, and strategies are similar to PTA, with the focus on narrowing the processing margin on rallies. - Bottle - chip supply and demand remain in a loose pattern, and it is likely to enter a seasonal inventory build - up period. Strategies are similar to PTA, and the main contract processing margin is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [6]. Polyolefins - PP supply increase is slowing down due to more unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase as maintenance peaks. Demand has improved, but there is still significant pressure with increasing supply and decreasing demand. The 01 contract has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may have long - term low - buying opportunities, and the monthly spread is suitable for reverse - spreading [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda supply is expected to increase in November, with weak demand support. The price is expected to be weak and stable, and the overall trend is bearish. - PVC supply - demand remains in an oversupply situation, with continuous supply pressure from new capacity and weak demand in the traditional off - season. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom, and the trading strategy is to short on rebounds [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose in November, with limited demand support and increasing port inventories. The price driving force is weak, but attention should be paid to device changes due to low valuation. - Styrene supply may slightly decrease in November, with overall stable demand. The cost support is weakening, and the price driving force is limited. The strategy is to be bearish on EB12 price rebounds [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Price and Spread - MA2601 closed at 2125 on November 6, down 0.75% from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2226, down 0.45%. The MA15 spread was - 101, up 6.32%. The Taicang basis was - 30, up 25%. Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Taicang showed different changes, with the Taicang - Inner Mongolia and Taicang - Luoyang regional spreads also changing [1]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory was 38.641%, up 2.75%; port inventory was 151.7 million tons, up 0.71%; social inventory was 190.4%, up 1.11% [2]. Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 76.09%, up 0.31%; overseas enterprise operating rate was 70.7%, down 2.68%. Downstream, the MTO device operating rate was 84.98%, up 1.09%, while the acetic acid operating rate was 72.3%, down 1.15% [3]. Polyester Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream crude oil, naphtha, and other prices showed different changes. Downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also had various fluctuations, such as POY150/48 cash flow down 31.2% [6]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory was 56.2 million tons, up 7.5%. The comprehensive operating rate of polyester was 91.7%, up 0.3%. Different products' operating rates also showed different trends [6]. Polyolefins Price and Spread - L2601 closed at 6805 on November 6, down 0.13%; L2605 closed at 6886, down 0.22%. PP2601 closed at 6471, down 0.31%; PP2605 closed at 6592, down 0.20%. The L15 spread was - 81, down 6.90%; the PP15 spread was - 121, up 6.14% [8]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE enterprise inventory was 49.0 million tons, up 17.84%; social inventory was 52.7 million tons, down 3.30%. PP enterprise inventory was 60.0 million tons, up 0.81%; trader inventory was 22.9 million tons, up 3.91%. PE device operating rate was 82.6%, up 2.13%; PP device operating rate was 77.8%, up 0.9% [8]. PVC and Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2500, unchanged; Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2500, unchanged. The price of PVC in East China showed a decline [11]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda industry operating rate was 88.3%, up 3.3%; PVC total operating rate was 77.1%, up 4.5%. The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC also had different changes [11]. Inventory - Liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong increased, while PVC total social inventory decreased slightly [11]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream crude oil, naphtha, and other prices changed. Pure benzene and styrene prices also showed different trends, such as pure benzene East China spot price down 0.4% [12]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 12.10 million tons, up 42.4%; styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 17.93 million tons, down 7.1%. The operating rates of pure benzene and styrene and their downstream industries also had various changes [12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Core Views Methanol - The methanol market is currently trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. The inventory issue for the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue to be priced in until the Iranian gas restriction [3]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - PP supply recovery has slowed due to unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase as maintenance nears its peak. Demand has improved, but there is still pressure as supply is expected to increase while demand may decrease. The 01 contract faces inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may present long - term low - buying opportunities, and the month - spread is biased towards reverse arbitrage [8]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda & PVC) - In November, the caustic soda market faces supply - demand pressure, with prices expected to be weak and stable. PVC's supply - demand imbalance remains unimproved, with prices likely to continue weak and volatile, and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose in November, with weak price drivers. Short - term trading of BZ2603 should focus on short - selling on rallies following oil prices. Styrene supply may slightly decrease, and demand is expected to change little. The supply - demand situation is currently loose, and prices are expected to have limited drivers. EB12 should be short - sold on rebounds [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is stable, but its price rebound is limited. PTA supply - demand is slightly loose, and its price rebound is under pressure. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory, and its price faces upward pressure. Short - fiber prices are gradually under pressure, and bottle - chip supply - demand remains loose [11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31st, MA2601 closed at 2180, down 28 (-1.27%) from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2260, down 24 (-1.05%); the MA15 spread was -80, down 4 (5.26%); the Taicang basis was -50, down 5 (11.11%); spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Taicang all declined [1]. - **Inventories**: Methanol enterprise inventories increased by 1.57 (4.36%) to 37.606%; port inventories decreased by 0.57 (-0.38%) to 150.6 million tons; social inventories increased by 1.00 (0.53%) to 188.3% [2]. - **开工率**: Domestic upstream enterprise开工率 decreased by 0.07 (-0.09%) to 75.78%; overseas upstream开工率 decreased by 2.68 (-3.65%) to 70.7%; downstream MTO装置开工率 increased by 5.96 (7.63%) to 84.06% [3]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On November 3rd, L2601 closed at 6888, down 11 (-0.16%); PP2601 closed at 6576, down 14 (-0.21%); some spot and futures prices and spreads changed [8]. - **Inventories**: PE enterprise inventories decreased by 9.86 (-19.16%) to 41.6; social inventories decreased by 1.80 (-3.30%) to 52.7 million tons; PP enterprise inventories decreased by 4.34 (-6.80%) to 59.5 million tons; trader inventories decreased by 2.50 (-10.48%) to 21.4 [8]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 decreased by 0.59 (-0.73%) to 60.9; downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 0.38 (-0.83%) to 45.4; PP装置开工率 increased by 1.13 (1.5%) to 77.1; downstream weighted开工率 increased by 0.24 (0.5%) to 52.6 [8]. Chlor - alkali - **Prices and Spreads**: On November 3rd, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 2500; the price of East China PVC decreased, and some futures prices and spreads changed [9]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry开工率 increased by 2.8 (3.3%) to 88.3; PVC总开工率 increased by 3.4 (4.5%) to 77.1 [9]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of some caustic soda downstream industries changed slightly, and the开工率 of PVC downstream products increased [9]. - **Inventories**: Liquid caustic soda inventories in East China and Shandong increased, PVC upstream factory inventories increased slightly, and total social inventories decreased by 1.0 (-1.8%) to 54.5 [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On November 3rd, Brent crude oil (December) was at $64.89, down $0.18 (-0.3%); CFR China pure benzene was at $681, up $4 (0.6%); some pure benzene prices and spreads changed [10]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot price was 6440, down 30 (-0.5%); EB12 - EB01 was -49, down 8 (-19.5%); some other prices and spreads also changed [10]. - **Inventories**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventories increased by 3.60 (42.4%) to 12.10 million tons; styrene Jiangsu port inventories decreased by 1.37 (-7.1%) to 17.93 million tons [10]. - **开工率**: Asian pure benzene开工率 decreased by 0.4% (-0.5%) to 78.8%; domestic pure benzene开工率 increased by 1.4% (1.9%) to 74.1%; styrene开工率 decreased by 2.5% (-3.7%) to 66.7% [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: On November 3rd, Brent crude oil (January) was at $64.89, up $0.12 (0.2%); CFR China PX was at $820, unchanged; some other upstream prices changed [11]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price was 6515, up 100 (1.6%); POY150/48 cash flow was 37, up 91; some other downstream product prices and cash flows changed [11]. - **Inventories**: MEG port inventories increased by 3.9 (7.5%) to 56.2 million tons; MEG to - port expectations decreased by 0.9 (-4.5%) to 18 [11]. - **开工率**: Asian PX开工率 decreased by 0.4% to 78.1%; China PX开工率 increased by 1.1% to 87.0%; PTA开工率 decreased by 0.8% to 78.0% [11].

2025年7月29日 甲醇产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 聚烯烃产业期现日报 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 张晓珍 Z0003135 甲醇价格及价差 | 品相 MA2601 收盘价 | 7月28日 2492 | 7月25日 2587 | 涨跌 -95 | 涨跌幅 -3.67% | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2509 收盘价 | 2404 | 2519 | -115 | -4.57% | | | MA91价差 | -88 | -68 | -20 | 29.41% | | | 太仓基差 | -4 | -32 | 28 | -87.30% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 2040 | 2050 | -10 | -0.49% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2190 | 2235 | -45 | -2.01% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2400 | 2488 | -88 | -3.52% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 360 | 438 | -78 | -17.71% | | | 区域价 ...