专家分享：有机硅行业现状与展望 20250926 摘要 全球有机硅产能向中国转移，2025 年中国有机硅单体产能占全球 77.33%，较 2021 年提升 10.39%。海外产能因成本等因素下降，中 国聚硅氧烷进口依存度降至 5%以下，主要进口高端及特殊用途产品。 中国有机硅单体产能增速放缓，2025 年无新增产能释放。新疆、云南、 内蒙古等地因成本优势成为新建产能集中地，华东地区凭借地理优势产 能占比过半。行业开工率有所回落，前三季度为 76.15%。 2025 年 DMC 价格跌至近十年新低，受供应端快速增长和需求端增速有 限影响。春节后企业曾限产保价，但随着盈利恢复，开工率提升导致供 应增加，价格承压下行。前三季度中间体累计消费量同比微增 5.5%。 有机硅下游产品消费结构中，硅橡胶占比下降，硅油需求增速加快。 2024 年硅橡胶需求占比降至 59%，硅油占比提升至 38.77%，特种和 改性硅油市场快速发展，对有机硅中间体的消费持续上升。 中国聚硅氧烷出口量增长放缓，但仍保持高位。2025 年前 8 个月出口 同比增长 1.47%，出口依赖度为 21.23%。全球产能转移、价格优势和 质量提升推动出口 ...

申万宏源发布研报称，预计我国有机硅产业凭借成本优势将持续抢占海外份额，有机硅内外需有望共 振。有机硅行业拐点已现，供需格局向好，向上弹性较大。该行认为具备规模优势、产业链配套优势的 一体化企业，以及在下游深加工方面较为出色的企业，包括合盛硅业(603260.SH)、东岳硅材 (300821.SZ)、兴发集团(600141.SH)、新安股份(600596.SH)、鲁西化工(000830.SZ)、三友化工 (600409.SH)。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 有机硅材料性能优异，广泛用于国民经济各个领域 有机硅产业链上游主要为金属硅，中游为单体及中间体，下游包括硅橡胶、硅油、硅树脂等深加工产 品，在有机硅产品的结构中既含有"有机基团"，又含有"无机结构"，这种特殊的组成和分子结构使其集 有机物的特性与无机物的功能于一身，独特的分子结构赋予了有机硅材料优越的性能，如粘结密封性、 耐高低温、耐候性等等，下游广泛应用于建筑、电力、电子电器、汽车、纺织、个人护理等国民经济各 个领域。 内外需共振推升景气，新能源催化增量需求 我国有机硅消费量占全球比重约为60%。1)内需：据百川盈孚数据，2024年我国有机硅DMC表观消费量 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dow Chemical announced the closure of three upstream assets in Europe to address structural challenges in the region, which is expected to significantly impact the supply-demand dynamics in the silicone industry [1][2]. Group 1: Company Actions - Dow will close an ethylene cracker in Germany, a chlor-alkali and vinyl plant in Germany, and a siloxane plant in the UK, with the shutdown process expected to start in mid-2026 and complete by the end of 2027, with final dismantling by 2029 [2]. - The closure of the UK plant, which has a capacity of 14.5 million tons, represents 30.5% of Europe's silicone capacity and 3.4% of global capacity [2][3]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The exit of overseas silicone capacity is anticipated to improve the supply-demand balance in the industry, as approximately 75% of DMC capacity is concentrated in China [2]. - From 2015 to 2024, about 290,000 tons of polysiloxane capacity is expected to exit the market, with overseas capacity projected to decrease to 915,000 tons by 2026 [3]. - China's silicone demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% from 2021 to 2024, with a potential price increase in 2025 due to improved supply-demand dynamics [3]. Group 3: Export Opportunities - The closure of Dow's UK plant is likely to enhance China's share of silicone exports to Europe, with an estimated annual DMC production of 87,000 tons, which would account for 88% of China's silicone exports to Europe in 2024 [4]. - As of 2024, China's silicone exports to Europe are projected to be around 98,000 tons, representing 18% of total domestic exports [4].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The closure of Dow's UK plant is expected to accelerate the improvement of the industry supply-demand structure, as approximately 75% of global DMC capacity is concentrated in China. The exit of overseas silicone capacity is primarily due to cost and competitive disadvantages [2][9] - Dow's UK plant, which has a capacity of 145,000 tons, represents 30.5% of Europe's silicone capacity and 3.4% of global capacity. Its closure will significantly impact the European market, which is primarily focused on local consumption [2][9] - China's silicone demand is projected to grow at a CAGR of 15.5% from 2021 to 2024, with a potential price increase in 2025 due to improved supply-demand dynamics. The closure of Dow's UK plant may enhance China's export share to Europe [3][22] Summary by Sections Event - On July 7, 2025, Dow announced the closure of three European upstream assets, including the UK silicone plant, due to structural challenges in the region. The closure is expected to begin in mid-2026 and be completed by the end of 2027, with final dismantling by 2029 [1][9] Industry Analysis - The exit of overseas silicone capacity is anticipated to improve the supply-demand balance in the industry. Since 2015, overseas capacity has decreased from 1.35 million tons to an estimated 1.065 million tons by 2024, with a further reduction expected to 915,000 tons by 2026 [2][17] - China's silicone demand is expected to grow significantly, with a projected 12% growth rate in demand fields in 2025, while new capacity growth is expected to slow to 3% [3][22] Related Companies - Key recommendations include Xin'an Chemical, with a suggestion to pay attention to Hoshine Silicon and Dongyue Silicon [3][28]

Industry Overview - Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) is a polymer with a main chain of repeating Si-O bonds, widely used in various fields such as cosmetics, medical devices, industrial lubricants, food processing, and electronic devices [1][2][5] - The production capacity of PDMS in China has increased from 141.5 thousand tons in 2018 to 282.2 thousand tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.23% [7][9] - The domestic PDMS production reached 229.5 thousand tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.02% [7][9] Supply Side - The supply chain for PDMS includes upstream raw material suppliers (silicon powder, chloromethane), midstream PDMS producers (e.g., Xingfa Group, Dongyue Silicon Materials, Hoshine Silicon Industry), and downstream application sectors [5][7] - China has transitioned from being a net importer to a net exporter of PDMS since 2015, although high-end products still rely on imports [9] Consumption Side - PDMS is primarily consumed in the production of silicone rubber, accounting for 70% of total consumption [11][13] - Key application sectors for PDMS include electronics (21.3%), power/new energy (19.1%), construction (14.1%), and textiles (8.9%), with a trend of increasing consumption in electronics and new energy sectors [11][13] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by high concentration, with the top six companies (CR6) accounting for over 75% of the market share [15] - Hoshine Silicon Industry is the leading company in the PDMS sector, with a production capacity of 62.1 thousand tons and a production volume of 51.1 thousand tons in 2024 [15][17] - Dongyue Silicon Materials follows closely, with a capacity of 28.2 thousand tons and a production volume of 24.9 thousand tons [15][19] Development Trends 1. The industry is expected to continue expanding capacity, with a need to achieve a dynamic balance between supply and demand [21] 2. Diversification of downstream applications and consumption upgrades will drive industry growth, particularly in high-performance silicone products [22] 3. Technological innovation and green development will lead the industry's transformation, focusing on high-end product development and environmentally friendly production methods [23]