MDI Industry Conference Call Summary Industry Overview - Global MDI capacity expansion is primarily concentrated in Wanhua's Fujian and BASF's US facilities, expected to be operational by 2026, with total global capacity potentially reaching 12 million tons by then. By 2030, capacity is projected to be around 12.6 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 1.2% [2][5] - The supply-demand imbalance in the industry is expected to ease, with consumption growth potentially outpacing capacity growth [2][5] Consumption and Growth Projections - Global MDI consumption is expected to grow by 4.6% to 8.95 million tons in 2025, with the Asia-Pacific region leading in growth [2][6] - In China, consumption growth is projected at about 7%, driven mainly by domestic demand, despite a year-on-year production decline of 3-4% [2][6] - The automotive sector is anticipated to see a consumption growth rate exceeding 10%, benefiting from the increased penetration of electric vehicles [2][6][7] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Prices for both polymeric MDI and pure MDI are expected to decline in 2025, with polymeric MDI prices remaining low in 2026 while pure MDI prices may see a slight increase [2][8] - Domestic manufacturers are likely to shift strategies towards maintaining market share, alleviating cost pressures for downstream applications [2][8] Trade and Tariff Impacts - Tariff policies are affecting China's MDI and downstream product exports, particularly to the US. A potential easing of US tariff policies could benefit appliance exports [2][9] - There is a trend of industrial transfer towards Southeast Asia in sectors like refrigeration and automotive, leading to a more regionalized export market structure [2][9] Capacity Expansion Details - By the end of 2025, global MDI capacity is expected to be around 11.12 million tons, with new capacity additions of approximately 130,000 tons, all from China [3][5] - Key expansions include Wanhua's Fujian project increasing from 800,000 tons to 1.5 million tons and BASF's US facility expanding from 400,000 tons to 600,000 tons, both expected to be operational in the second half of 2026 [3][5][11] Regional Consumption Insights - In 2025, the Asia-Pacific region is projected to have the highest growth rate at approximately 8.3%, while North America is expected to grow by about 2% [6] - China's actual consumption is estimated at 3.6 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of about 7% [6] Emerging Applications and Market Shifts - New applications in cold storage panels and refrigerated containers are experiencing growth, while demand in construction-related insulation is declining due to the real estate cycle [2][6][7] - The cold storage industry is expected to see a significant increase in production, with a growth rate of around 50% in refrigerated containers [7] Challenges and Future Outlook - The MDI industry is facing challenges from fluctuating raw material prices and the need for manufacturers to adapt to changing market conditions [10][16] - The overall consensus is that the industry will experience moderate growth rates of about 3-4% annually, with expectations for China's MDI consumption to exceed 4.2 million tons by 2030 [9][10] Conclusion - The MDI industry is poised for gradual growth, driven by capacity expansions and increasing consumption in key sectors such as automotive and refrigeration. However, challenges such as tariff impacts and fluctuating prices will require strategic adjustments from manufacturers to maintain market stability and profitability [2][5][9]

截至2月24日，华东纯苯主流市场收盘6165元/吨，较节前涨175元/吨。节日期间原油积极走高，带动市 场情绪，亚洲纯苯价格快速走高，带动国内现货价格走高，从节后首个工作日来看，下游按需采购，逢 低买入为主，华东主港库存继续走高，整体仍施压现货价格，限制上涨幅度。短期来看，纯苯华东主港 到货仍多，持货商心态略有不稳，纯苯价格或转弱运行。（卓创资讯） 纯苯：原油走高 带动价格趋强 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2026年02月25日08时14分 报告导读： 供需方面，春节前 247家样本钢厂螺纹产量大幅下降，表观需求环比回落，总库存继续回升，五大品种总产量大幅下降，库存继续增加，表观需求 处于一年中的低位。整体来看，目前市场整体仍处于节日模式，供需双弱，预计要到元宵节之后才会启动，产量、需求处于低位，库存从低位快速 增加，市场对 2026 年的需求预期相对偏弱。从技术面看，期价目前已经跌破了 12 月低点的支撑，暂时以下行趋势对待，而且持仓量增加，说明空 头更主动。由于当前估值低，下方的空间或有限。 操作建议： 维持观望，不建议追空 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 操作建议： 空单可轻仓持有 | 表2：铁矿石相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | 较上周 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Wheat Market Overview - Wheat prices in January showed a slight recovery after a period of decline, with average prices in major production areas at 2496.99 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 0.40 yuan/ton but a year-on-year increase of 5.94% [1] - The market faced mixed influences, including reduced willingness to sell among grain merchants and limited processing demand from flour enterprises, which constrained price increases [1] - In February, the wheat market maintained stability at high levels, with minor fluctuations observed [3] Group 2: Consumption Market - In January, the wheat purchasing prices for flour enterprises initially decreased but later increased due to a cautious selling mentality among farmers and limited processing demand [3] - The average operating load of small and medium-sized flour enterprises increased to 41.93%, up 2.79 percentage points from the previous month, although the overall increase was modest [3] - The flour industry faced a "weak peak season," with limited order increases and high raw material costs, leading to price declines for flour that outpaced those of wheat [3] Group 3: Wheat Futures and Import Data - The CBOT wheat futures experienced fluctuations, with the March contract closing at 523.5 cents/bushel, a 0.62% increase from December [7] - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of wheat and wheat flour, a year-on-year increase of 273.4%, while the total import volume for the year was 3.98 million tons, a decrease of 64.4% [8] Group 4: Global Wheat Supply and Demand Forecast - Global wheat supply, consumption, trade volume, and ending stocks all increased in January, with supply up by 4.3 million tons to 110.22 million tons, primarily due to increased production in Argentina and Russia [8] - Argentina's wheat production was raised by 3.5 million tons to a record 27.5 million tons, while Russia's production was adjusted up by 2 million tons to 89.5 million tons [8] - Global wheat consumption was forecasted to rise by 900,000 tons to 82.39 million tons, driven by increased consumption in Russia, Ukraine, and Morocco [8] Group 5: Future Market Analysis - The wheat market is expected to remain stable but may trend weaker in the short term due to a supply-demand imbalance, with processing enterprises concluding their pre-holiday stockpiling [11] - The continued release of policy wheat is expected to keep market supply ample, with controlled risks for significant price fluctuations [11] - Post-holiday, demand may weaken further, potentially leading to slight price declines for wheat [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined, represented by 'なな女' [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined, represented by 'なな☆' and 'ななな' [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined, represented by 'ななな' [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined, represented by '文文文' [1] - Zinc: Not clearly defined, represented by 'な☆☆' [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Not clearly defined, represented by '立☆☆' [1] - Tin: Not clearly defined, represented by 'な女女' [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined, represented by 'ななな' [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined, represented by 'なな☆' [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined, represented by 'な女女' [1] 2. Core Views - The copper market continues to have a narrow - range shock, and it is advisable to continue the reverse arbitrage idea. The post - holiday seasonal inventory accumulation may first pressure the price and then the price may rise again based on the demand expectations [2]. - The aluminum market has a weak fundamental situation, with inventory performance significantly weaker than in previous years. There is still adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. The cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price fluctuations but has weak follow - up ability. The alumina market has a reduced operating capacity and production, but the oversupply prospect remains unchanged [3]. - The zinc market has a short - term structural contradiction, with the external market being strong and the export window about to open, which eases the downward pressure on Shanghai zinc. The market is waiting for the guidance of non - farm data [4]. - The nickel and stainless - steel market has a rebound in nickel prices but weak trading. The social inventory continues to increase, and the market is mainly driven by policy sentiment [7]. - The tin market continues to rebound with the upper resistance at the MA20 moving average. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday supply and consumption trends [8]. - The lithium carbonate market has a rebound but weak trading. The inventory structure has changed, and there is a high inventory in the mid - stream. The short - term uncertainty is high [9]. - The industrial silicon market price weakens after breaking through 8400 yuan/ton. The supply is in a phased contraction, and the demand from downstream industries is expected to decline. The price is expected to continue a weak trend [10]. - The polysilicon market has a slight increase in futures prices with narrowed fluctuations. The production decreases, and the market is expected to have a slight de - stocking. The price is expected to continue an oscillating trend [11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper has had a narrow - range shock for three consecutive trading days, and the 0 - 1 month spread has expanded to 440 yuan. It is recommended to follow the reverse arbitrage idea. The post - holiday seasonal inventory accumulation may first pressure the price and then it may rise again based on demand expectations [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum oscillates. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan are - 190 yuan, - 290 yuan, and - 40 yuan respectively. The aluminum bar processing fee is less than 100 yuan. The inventory is significantly weaker than in previous years, and there is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. The cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price but has weak follow - up ability. The domestic alumina operating capacity drops to around 9400 yuan, with a phased production decline, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged [3] Zinc - The SMM zinc average price is 24460 yuan/ton, with a real - time premium of 20 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The spot trading is light. There is a short - term structural contradiction, the external market is strong, and the zinc ingot export window is about to open, which eases the downward pressure on Shanghai zinc. The market is waiting for the guidance of non - farm data [4] Aluminum - The aluminum price is at a low level. The production cuts of primary and recycled aluminum smelters increase, and most downstream enterprises are on holiday. The spot market shows a situation of double - decline in supply and demand. The SMM1 aluminum average price is 16575 yuan/ton, and the discount to the near - month contract narrows to 35 yuan/ton. The overseas aluminum ingots are in surplus, and the import window remains open. The Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a low level within the price range of 16,500 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel rebounds, but the market trading is light. The news about the Indonesian quota causes speculation. The social inventory of nickel and stainless steel continues to increase. The market confidence declines, and the transaction is light. The pure nickel inventory increases by 3000 tons to 73,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increases by 15,000 tons to 869,000 tons. The market is in a pre - festival state, waiting for a clear situation [7] Tin - The Shanghai tin continues to rebound, with the upper resistance at the MA20 moving average. The overseas LME tin inventory continues to increase, and the LME spot discount is 159 US dollars. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday supply trend and peak - season consumption rhythm [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate rebounds, but the market trading is light. A large number of hedging positions have been closed during the rapid price increase. The total market inventory decreases by 2000 tons to 105,000 tons. The short - term uncertainty is high [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price weakens after breaking through 8400 yuan/ton. The supply has a phased contraction, but there is a复产 expectation after the festival. The downstream polysilicon is expected to reduce production by more than 20,000 tons, and the organic silicon may reduce the demand for industrial silicon by about 90,000 tons if the emission reduction target is implemented. The December export volume is 59,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8%. The social inventory rises to 562,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8000 tons. The price is expected to continue a weak trend [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rise slightly, and the market fluctuations narrow. The industry's fully - cost - inclusive tax for silicon materials is about 54,125 yuan/ton. The February production decreases by more than 20% month - on - month, and the downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decrease by 3%. The market is expected to have a slight de - stocking. The latest silicon material manufacturer inventory is 341,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8000 tons. The price is expected to continue an oscillating trend [11]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Shandong reformed aromatics market is expected to experience a "dual decline" in supply and demand, with an overall oversupply situation persisting, leading to a downward trend in prices for reformed aromatics, which may remain weak in 2026 [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The oversupply situation is expected to exert downward pressure on prices, as gasoline consumption peaks and the demand for raw materials in the market declines. The capacity utilization rate for reformed aromatics is projected to be 31.85%, down 8.58 percentage points year-on-year, with a production volume of 2.4841 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.24% [2] - The demand for reformed aromatics is anticipated to continue declining in 2025, with a projected demand of 2.45 million tons, representing a nearly 25% year-on-year decrease. This decline is attributed to the strong substitutability of the raw materials and a decrease in gasoline production from independent refineries in Shandong [2] Seasonal Demand Characteristics - The demand for reformed aromatics aligns closely with gasoline consumption patterns, which have shown weakened seasonal characteristics in recent years. Traditional peak seasons around the Spring Festival and from May to October have not resulted in significant price movements for reformed aromatics [3] Price Trends and Seasonal Index - The price of reformed aromatics is expected to fluctuate in five distinct phases throughout 2025: 1. January to February: Prices are expected to rise due to pre-holiday stocking and stable demand [6] 2. March to May: Prices are projected to decline as gasoline consumption falls short of expectations, leading to a weak demand for raw materials [6] 3. June: Prices may rise due to fluctuations in international oil prices, although demand remains generally weak [6] 4. July to October: Prices are expected to decline, with weak gasoline demand and a lack of traditional peak season characteristics [7] 5. November to December: Prices may stabilize with overall steady demand, leading to a slight upward trend [7] Future Market Predictions - In 2026, no new production facilities for reformed aromatics are planned, leading to limited fluctuations in supply. The overall refining capacity in China may decline year-on-year, with a projected decrease in gasoline output, further exacerbating the oversupply situation. Consequently, the demand for reformed aromatics is expected to continue its downward trend, with prices likely to experience a range-bound fluctuation [9]

Report Date - The report is dated February 10, 2026 [1] Steel Report Core View - The blast furnace operating rate remains at a high level, while the production of electric furnaces has significantly decreased seasonally due to the Spring Festival. Terminal demand has further shrunk, with transactions showing a situation of "prices but no market". Inventory has continued to accumulate, with the accumulation rate of rebar accelerating year-on-year, and hot-rolled coils having shifted from destocking to stockpiling. The significant increase in hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts has exerted upward pressure on coil prices. Overall, finished steel products are oscillating weakly and may test the lower limit of the box-shaped oscillation [3]. Price Data - Rebar: On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3,133 yuan/ton, 3,052 yuan/ton, and 3,097 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Hot-rolled coils: On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3,263 yuan/ton, 3,220 yuan/ton, and 3,239 yuan/ton respectively [4]. Spread Data - Rebar spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was 81 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was -45 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was -36 yuan/ton on February 10, 2026 [4]. - Hot-rolled coil spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was 43 yuan/ton, the 05 - 10 spread was -19 yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was -24 yuan/ton on February 10, 2026 [4]. Iron Ore Report Core View - The supply and demand situation is significantly weak. Overseas shipments have seasonally decreased, and attention should be paid to the impact of the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere on Australian shipments. Steel mills have decent profits, and molten iron production is expected to steadily increase. Terminal steel consumption has entered the pre - holiday off - season. The accumulation rate of social inventory is slower than in previous years, and port inventory has continued to accumulate above the seasonal level, facing significant pressure. Market risk appetite is low, and prices are under pressure [21]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 732 yuan/ton, 761.5 yuan/ton, and 744 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were 0, 0, and 1 yuan/ton respectively, and the weekly changes were -17, -16, and -16 yuan/ton respectively [22]. Fundamental Data - On February 6, 2026, the average daily molten iron production was 228.58 tons, the 45 - port desilting volume was 341.08 tons, and the global shipment volume was 2,535.3 tons [26]. Coking Coal and Coke Report Core View - As the Chinese New Year approaches, domestic mines have reduced production, and the supply of coking coal has seasonally shrunk. The domestic and foreign prices of imported coal are inverted, and the arrival volume is at a low level. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, and coking profits have improved. The resumption of production of blast furnace steel mills has been slow, and the short - term supply and demand are relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production rhythm of mines and steel mills after the Spring Festival. There may be a supply - demand mismatch under the background of tight seaborne coal imports [33]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coking coal was -175 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was -77.5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 252.5 yuan/ton [34][36]. - On February 10, 2026, the 09 - 01 spread of coke was -94 yuan/ton, the 05 - 09 spread was -74.5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 168.5 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloy Report Core View - Cost support and the pressure of the downstream terminal steel inventory accumulation are in a game. Silicon manganese is facing its own high - inventory pressure, and the manganese ore quotation provides bottom support. Ferroalloy production is already at a low level, and it is difficult to see a significant reduction in production. The resumption of production of steel mills may drive an increase in molten iron, but the demand increase is limited due to the off - season inventory accumulation of terminal steel products. The decline in finished steel products suppresses prices, and in the short term, it will maintain a range - bound oscillation [48]. Price Data - For silicon iron on February 9, 2026, the basis in Ningxia was 26 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Gansu were 5,370 yuan/ton, 5,390 yuan/ton, 5,300 yuan/ton, 5,400 yuan/ton, and 5,400 yuan/ton respectively [49]. - For silicon manganese on February 10, 2026, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 182 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Yunnan were 5,570 yuan/ton, 5,650 yuan/ton, 5,700 yuan/ton, 5,750 yuan/ton, and 5,700 yuan/ton respectively [50][53]. Soda Ash Report Core View - There is an expectation of weakening rigid demand, and soda ash is oscillating weakly, with industrial contradictions still accumulating. If the futures price rises, there is a certain restocking space for middle - stream players such as those involved in futures - cash arbitrage, but the demand elasticity is limited due to the general demand situation. The downward price space needs inventory accumulation to open up. In terms of supply and demand, as new production capacity gradually releases output, the daily production of soda ash is at a high level, and the expectation of high - level long - term supply of soda ash remains unchanged. The inventory of the photovoltaic glass industry is at a high level, the daily melting volume is temporarily stable, and the overall rigid demand is moderately weak. The balance of heavy soda ash continues to be in surplus. Soda ash exports remain at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to a certain extent [68]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of soda ash were 1,171 yuan/ton, 1,234 yuan/ton, and 1,282 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were -10 yuan/ton, -9 yuan/ton, and -4 yuan/ton respectively, and the daily decline rates were -0.85%, -0.72%, and -0.31% respectively [69]. Glass Report Core View - According to market news, due to environmental protection pressure, four coal - fired production lines in Shahe may undergo cold repair before the Spring Festival, with a total daily melting volume of 2,700 tons. There may be more definite news in the next few days. Coupled with the 1,200 - ton cold repair of Dongtai Zhongbo last week and the expectation of 1,000 - ton cold repair of Deyang Xinyi before the Spring Festival, it means that float glass will experience concentrated cold repair before the Spring Festival, slightly exceeding expectations. The daily melting volume will decline to around 146,000 - 147,000 tons. Although there are many new production lines to be ignited in the Shahe area, even the earliest ones will not be implemented until after the Spring Festival, and it will take several months to produce products. This wave of pre - Spring Festival concentrated cold repair will help relieve the inventory accumulation pressure and spot price pressure after the Spring Festival. In terms of supply and demand, float glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Regardless of how the supply expectation changes, the high inventory of the glass middle - stream is a risk point. Currently, it seems that the terminal may not be able to digest it, so once a negative feedback occurs, the spot price pressure will be significant [91]. Price Data - On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of the 05, 09, and 01 contracts of glass were 1,087 yuan/ton, 1,189 yuan/ton, and 1,224 yuan/ton respectively. The daily changes were 23 yuan/ton, 19 yuan/ton, and -9 yuan/ton respectively, and the daily increase/decrease rates were 2.16%, 1.62%, and -0.73% respectively [92].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, there may be a phased rebound, but the overall upward space is limited. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy within the range [3][4] - For other commodities: A shares adjusted downward with low trading volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to recover tomorrow; gold is expected to continue fluctuating, so participation should be cautious; iron ore is seeking a bottom with weak domestic demand support and a bearish outlook; glass has a bullish tendency with minor daily adjustments; methanol may fluctuate slightly and is expected to stabilize as demand recovers; pulp is in a range - bound trend due to slow domestic consumption recovery [7][10][11][14][17][21] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **External Events**: Indonesian miners have suspended spot coal exports due to a government production - cut plan, with some 2026 output quotas potentially cut by 40% - 70% compared to 2025. This has led to a rise in export quotes, a limit - up in the A - share coal sector, and a stronger coking coal futures market [3] - **Domestic Situation**: As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic coal mines are on holiday, reducing supply. However, Mongolian coal imports at the Ganqimaodu Port remain high. In February, coking coal supply decreases while demand remains stable, with fundamental improvements [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Coking coal futures are oscillating between 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton, with 1300 yuan being a strong resistance level. Trading volume did not increase during recent rallies, and market activity is low due to the approaching Spring Festival [3] A Shares - The overall A - share market adjusted downward with low trading volume today. Technically, the short - term adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Index is nearing the end, and it is expected to recover tomorrow [7] Gold - Gold prices have continued to decline significantly, and fluctuations are expected to continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [10] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus has intensified. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still weak. Technically, it has broken through the support platform, and the outlook is bearish [11][12] Glass - Daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has slightly decreased. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side optimization. Technically, it adjusted today, but the bullish view remains [14][15] Methanol - Methanol at ports may fluctuate slightly due to expected import reduction. Attention should be paid to downstream resumption progress, port inventory changes, and coal price trends. Prices are expected to stabilize as demand recovers [17] Pulp - Since the end of last year, the supply - demand pattern of pulp has improved, driving prices to bottom out. However, the slow recovery of domestic terminal consumption restricts price increases, and the futures market is in a range - bound trend [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures market of various energy - chemical products shows diverse trends, including high - level oscillations, declines, and range - bound operations. For example, p - xylene is in a high - level oscillating market with a weakening monthly spread, while rubber is in a wide - range weakening trend [2][12]. - The fundamentals of different products vary. Some are affected by factors such as supply and demand changes, cost support, and geopolitical risks. For instance, the supply of PTA is in a cumulative pattern, and the demand for rubber may face a short - term callback risk due to high prices [12][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a high - level oscillating market with a weakening monthly spread. The fundamentals are gradually weakening, with an increase in domestic and overseas device starts, and it is entering a cumulative inventory pattern. PXN processing fees have rebounded, and PTA processing fees above 450 are recommended to be shorted on rallies [12]. - **PTA**: In an interval oscillating market with a bearish monthly spread. The demand for polyester is expected to decline marginally, and it is in a cumulative inventory pattern. Attention should be paid to the support level of 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton [13]. - **MEG**: In a unilateral interval oscillating market. The supply device start - up rate has increased, and imports remain high. The demand for polyester is expected to decline in the short term, and it is difficult to change the cumulative inventory pattern [13]. 3.2 Rubber - In a wide - range weakening trend. The import volume in January is expected to decrease compared with December, but it is still at a high level. The global supply is expected to decrease seasonally, and the cost side supports the rubber price. However, downstream demand is resistant to high - priced raw materials, and there is a risk of a short - term pullback [15][17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - In a high - level decline pattern. Macro - level factors such as geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve nominations affect the market sentiment. Some valuation indicators are approaching the boundary, and the negative feedback expectation from downstream enterprises has increased [20]. 3.4 LLDPE - The import profit has narrowed, and the offer is limited, but it is supported by oil prices. The raw material price of crude oil has strengthened, and the ethylene monomer link has continued to weaken. The mid - stream trading is active, but the downstream has not followed up to replenish inventory. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure caused by high inventory and weakening demand before the Spring Festival [21][22]. 3.5 PP - Supported by the rising oil price cost. The cost side of crude oil and propane is strong, and the supply has no new production before the 2605 contract. The demand is mainly driven by new orders for downstream rigid demand, and the overall fundamental support is limited. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [24][25]. 3.6 Caustic Soda - Supported by cost, with strong future expectations. The previous logic of shorting caustic soda profits may be challenged in the later stage. Although the spot is weak in the short term, the market has strong expectations for the future. Attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts [28]. 3.7 Pulp - In a wide - range oscillating trend. The supply - demand fundamentals remain at a weak rigid - demand level, with continuous pressure on port inventory on the supply side and no improvement in demand on the demand side. The market lacks upward driving force [33][34]. 3.8 Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The price of float glass in most regions remains stable, with only partial price increases in the central China region. The market demand is limited, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy of manufacturers in high - inventory regions [37][38]. 3.9 Methanol - Oscillating with support. The macro - level sentiment is weak, but the international energy price provides support. The supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term, and the high - level operation of port inventory suppresses the upside space. Attention should be paid to the cost support below [43]. 3.10 Urea - Oscillating and falling. The macro - level sentiment is weak, and the small - scale state reserve release suppresses speculative signals. The 05 contract has a fundamental pressure level of around 1830 yuan/ton and a support level of around 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton [46][47]. 3.11 Styrene - In a strong - oscillating trend. The downstream profit is continuously squeezed, and it is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The inventory is in a seasonal cumulative pattern, and the upward driving force is limited. Attention should be paid to the restart of parking devices [48][49]. 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The supply of soda ash enterprises is at a high level, and the downstream demand is average, with purchases on demand. The short - term market lacks substantial support, and the price may oscillate weakly and stably [54]. 3.13 PVC - The sentiment is strong, but the fundamentals have not improved significantly. It is supported by factors such as export rush, the Mercury - Free Convention, and future production reduction expectations in the short term. However, it still faces a pattern of high production and high inventory, and attention should be paid to the pressure on long - position holders to take delivery [58][59]. 3.14 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: In a strong - oscillating trend with a continuation of high - volatility. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In a narrow - range adjustment, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [62]. 3.15 Container Freight Index (European Line) - In an oscillating market. The freight rates of European and US - West routes show a downward trend, and attention should be paid to factors such as shipping capacity and geopolitical risks [64]. 3.16 Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short Fiber**: In a high - level oscillation with increased volatility. The futures are weak, and the spot price of the factory rises slightly. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber are polarized [76]. - **Bottle Chip**: In a high - level oscillation with increased volatility. The upstream raw material futures oscillate and fall, and the factory price is mostly stable. The market trading atmosphere is acceptable [76][77]. 3.17 Offset Printing Paper - Hold short positions and conduct a 3 - 4 reverse spread. The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the cost is slightly reduced, and the profit is slightly improved. The market trading atmosphere is weak [79][80][82]. 3.18 Pure Benzene - In a strong - oscillating trend. The port inventory is in a cumulative pattern, and the spot price has increased. Attention should be paid to the inventory changes and the price difference between pure benzene and other products [84][85].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term due to a tight copper ore supply, seasonally weak refined copper demand, and increasing global visible inventories, with support from policy and sentiment [5]. - Aluminum prices are likely to be strong and range - bound as domestic inventory accumulation is not a major negative in the off - season, and LME inventory is low while US aluminum spot premiums are high, with support from loose policies at home and abroad [8]. - The lead industry is currently weak, but the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally as winter transportation issues tighten recycled smelting raw materials [10]. - The zinc industry remains weak, but zinc prices are rising to catch up with the sector's macro - attributes as overseas natural gas price hikes raise concerns about European smelting costs, and zinc - copper and zinc - aluminum ratios are at low levels [12]. - Tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to capital games in the futures market, and it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term due to the expected reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia, and it is recommended to wait and see [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices have a potential callback risk due to large supply - side uncertainties and increased profit - taking after a rapid rise, and it is recommended to use light positions or options [19]. - Alumina prices may face difficulties in continuous rebound due to over - capacity, declining cost support, and delivery pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to rise further but with large fluctuations, as the raw material supply is expected to be tight and social inventory continues to decline [25]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to be strong and range - bound due to strong cost support and continuous supply - side disturbances [28] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices hit new highs and then fell, copper prices also rose and then declined. LME copper 3M rose 0.42% to $13,183/ton, SHFE copper main contract closed at 103,460 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 1,175 tons to 170,525 tons, North American inventory growth slowed, and the cancelled warrant ratio decreased. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly, bonded area inventory decreased, and SHFE daily warrants decreased by 0.1 to 145,000 tons. Shanghai and Guangdong spot copper were at a discount to futures, and the spot import loss of SHFE copper widened to about 850 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 2,810 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly [4]. - **Strategy**: The short - term copper price may be range - bound. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,500 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,300/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Precious metals rose sharply and then fell, aluminum prices fluctuated and closed higher. LME aluminum closed up 0.69% at $3,195/ton, SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,380 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 0.7 to 732,000 lots, and futures warrants increased by 0.1 to 142,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased, aluminum rod processing fees rebounded with dull trading. The spot discount of East China electrolytic aluminum to futures widened, and LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 to 505,000 tons, with the cancelled warrant ratio decreasing [7]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to be strong and range - bound. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract today is 24,100 - 24,600 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is $3,140 - 3,220/ton [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Monday, the SHFE lead index fell 0.16% to 17,079 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 102,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME lead 3S rose $1 to $2,027/ton, with a total position of 171,400 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,825 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 125 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 28,800 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract - first - month contract spread was - 60 yuan/ton. LME lead ingot inventory was 215,200 tons, and LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 28,100 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 44.556 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 126.7 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.216, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 174.01 yuan/ton. As of January 26, the national main market lead ingot social inventory was 34,900 tons, an increase of 70 tons from January 22 [9]. - **Strategy**: Although the visible lead ore inventory is rising and higher than in previous years, high by - product profits suppress the further decline of lead concentrate TC. The primary smelting start - up rate has declined slightly but remains high, the recycled smelting start - up rate has increased marginally, and the finished product inventory of primary and recycled smelting plants and lead ingot social inventory have both increased. However, the surplus of lead ingots is expected to decrease marginally [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Monday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.59% to 24,744 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 236,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Monday, LME zinc 3S rose $53 to $3,292/ton, with a total position of 230,200 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,680 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 35 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 25 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong basis was 25 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai - Guangdong spread of 10 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 28,900 tons, the domestic Shanghai area basis was 35 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract - first - month contract spread was - 80 yuan/ton. LME zinc ingot inventory was 111,500 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 9,400 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 32.62 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 2 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the SHFE - LME price ratio was 1.085, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 2,342.1 yuan/ton. As of January 26, the national main market zinc ingot social inventory was 109,900 tons, an increase of 130 tons from January 22 [11]. - **Strategy**: The visible zinc ore inventory is accumulating, zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized, zinc smelting profits have slightly recovered, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory destocking has slowed. After the SHFE - LME price ratio recovered, the outflow of zinc improved. Although short - term bullish sentiment has retreated, the rise in overseas natural gas prices has raised concerns about European smelting costs, and zinc prices are rising to catch up with the sector's macro - attributes [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 26, tin prices rose and then fell, and the SHFE tin main contract closed at 425,340 yuan/ton, down 0.98% from the previous day. SHFE inventory was reported at 8,624 tons, an increase of 42 tons from the previous day. In terms of supply, the smelter start - up rate in Yunnan remained stable at a high level last week, while Jiangxi's refined tin output was still low due to a shortage of recycled tin raw materials. In terms of demand, although high tin prices significantly suppressed downstream purchasing意愿, downstream inventories were generally low, and the acceptance of tin prices was gradually increasing. After the tin price fell last week, the rigid demand for replenishment was concentrated. As of January 23, 2026, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 11,001 tons, an increase of 365 tons from last Friday [13]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, tin prices are determined by capital games in the futures market. In the context of a strong trend in precious metals and the non - ferrous sector, tin prices are expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 430,000 - 470,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for overseas LME tin is $52,000 - 58,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 26, nickel prices rose and then fell, and the SHFE nickel main contract closed at 145,380 yuan/ton, down 1.78% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 6,500 yuan/ton, down 1,750 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $54.54/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was reported at $23/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices rose significantly. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,050 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 7.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [15]. - **Strategy**: Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory. It is expected that SHFE nickel will fluctuate widely in the short term due to the expected reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for SHFE nickel prices is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME nickel 3M contract is $16,000 - 19,000/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The WK Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) closed at 168,795 yuan in the evening session, down 3.45% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 165,500 - 173,000 yuan, with the average price down 6,000 yuan (- 3.42%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 162,000 - 170,000 yuan, with the average price down 3.63% from the previous day. The LC2605 contract closed at 165,680 yuan, down 8.73% from the previous closing price, and the average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan [18]. - **Strategy**: On Monday, lithium carbonate rose and then fell, and the total contract position decreased by 53,900 lots. Although the fundamental improvement expectation of lithium carbonate remains unchanged, the supply - side uncertainty is large. After the previous rapid rise in lithium prices, there are more profit - taking orders, and there is a potential callback risk. It is recommended to use light positions or options. The reference range for the GZEE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 158,800 - 172,600 yuan/ton [19] Alumina - **Market Information**: As of 15:00 on January 26, 2026, the alumina index rose 0.37% to 2,729 yuan/ton, with a total long - short trading position of 679,300 lots, a decrease of 37,500 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 177 yuan/ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price rose $1/ton to $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 84 yuan/ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warrants on Monday were reported at 149,200 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from the previous trading day. At the mine end, the Guinea CIF price remained at $62/ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at $60/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: After the rainy season, Guinea's shipments are gradually recovering, and with the resumption of production at the AXIS mine, the ore price is expected to decline. Alumina smelting over - capacity is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market has increased expectations for the implementation of supply - contraction policies, but there are still difficulties in continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,645 yuan/ton, down 0.54% (- 80) on the day, with a long - short position of 319,200 lots, an increase of 834 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in the Foshan market was reported at 14,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil in the Wuxi market was reported at 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan from the previous day. The Foshan basis was - 395 (+ 180), and the Wuxi basis was - 345 (- 20). The Hongwang 201 in Foshan was reported at 9,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan from the previous day, and the Hongwang annealed 430 was reported at 7,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of Shandong high - nickel iron was reported at 1,045 yuan/nickel, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day. The recycling price of Baoding 304 scrap steel industrial materials was reported at 9,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of high - carbon ferrochrome in the northern main production area was reported at 8,450 yuan/50 - base tons, unchanged from the previous day. The futures inventory was reported at 38,938 tons, a decrease of 7,180 tons from the previous day. As of January 23, social inventory decreased to 878,900 tons, a decrease of 0.51% month - on - month, of which 300 - series inventory was 599,500 tons, a decrease of 0.48% month - on - month [24]. - **Strategy**: Last week, the stainless steel market was active, and price fluctuations intensified. Due to the widening nickel - stainless steel price difference, some nickel - iron production capacity shifted to high - grade nickel matte production, resulting in a tight supply of nickel - iron and limited high - quality tradable resources in the market. In addition, futures warrants are at a low level, and the stainless steel market shows a structurally tight supply in the short term, with near - month contracts continuing to strengthen. Although downstream demand weakened before the Spring Festival, traders' enthusiasm for stocking increased, and social inventory continued to decline. If the Indonesian government intervenes in the suspected monopoly of port logistics in the Indonesian Tsingshan Industrial Park, the supply of stainless steel may be affected. Overall, the expectation of tight raw