| Million | 国投期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年11月24日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ななな | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 木材 | 女女女 | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉大幅反弹,棉花现货销售基差偏稳;新棉成本确定,既给盘面带来支撑,也会限制价格的高度,短期或仍难摆脱这种 区间震荡的走势。虽然今年新棉增产幅度较大，但商业库存并不高,销售进度偏快,也给盘面带来较强的支撑。截至11月20 号，全国累积加工皮棉463.1万吨，同比增加81.2万吨，较四年均值增加151.2万吨。 截至11月 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年11月20日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | なな女 | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 铸造铝合金 ★☆☆ | | | | 锌 | な☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 错 | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | な☆☆ | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业培 | な女女 | | | 多晶硅 | な女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜减仓阴线震荡。SMM现铜报86435元，沪粤升水80、55元，周内SMM社库增加700吨在19.45万吨。晚间等 待美 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific overall industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Instead, it offers investment suggestions for various futures contracts in different sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic stock index shows resilience, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. The A - share market is in a repricing adjustment, with short - term fluctuations and limited downside risks. [2] - The bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield facing resistance around 1.8%. [2] - Precious metals are expected to find support at certain levels, with a suggestion to buy on dips. [2] - Different commodities in the black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and agricultural sectors have different price trends and corresponding investment strategies. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic stock index futures are in a state of repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations are common, and it is recommended to wait and see. In case of a deep one - day decline, a bull spread of put options can be arranged. [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. For the TL2512 contract, the fluctuation range is expected to be between 115.9 - 116.7, and an interval operation strategy is recommended. [2] Precious Metals - **Gold**: It is expected to find support around $4000 (925 yuan). A strategy of buying on dips is recommended, and selling out - of - the - money put options is suggested. [2] - **Silver**: It follows the trend of gold and is expected to find support around $49 (11,800 yuan). A light - position trial long strategy on dips is recommended. [2] Black Commodities - **Steel**: The volume of rebar and hot - rolled coil is expected to increase, and the spread between them is expected to widen. Rebar and hot - rolled coil should respectively focus on the support levels of 3000 and 3200. [2] - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 750 - 800, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **Coking Coal**: It is viewed bearishly, with a reference range of 1100 - 1200. [2] - **Coke**: It is also viewed bearishly, with a reference range of 1600 - 1700. [2] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 85,500 - 87,500. [2] - **Aluminum**: Different aluminum - related contracts have different expected price ranges. Some may have short - term downward space. [2] - **Zinc**: Supported by supply reduction expectations, with a reference range of 22,200 - 22,800, and long positions should be held. [2] - **Tin**: The price is expected to be strong, and long positions should be held. [2] Energy - Chemical Commodities - **PX**: It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. [2] - **PTA**: The medium - term supply - demand outlook is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. A rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 is recommended. [2] - **Short - fiber**: Similar to PTA, with a focus on reducing processing fees on rallies. [2] - **Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand pattern in November remains loose, and it follows the cost - end trend. [2] - **Ethanol**: There is short - term rigid demand support, but supply is high, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [2] - **Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended. [2] - **Styrene**: It may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. [2] - **LLDPE**: The price changes little, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **PP**: Due to unexpected maintenance, the downward space is limited, and short - position stop - profit is recommended. [2] - **Methanol**: The port market continues to weaken, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of narrowing MTO in the 05 contract. [2] - **Caustic Soda**: It is expected to be weak, and a bearish view is recommended. [2] - **PVC**: The supply - demand contradiction remains, and a bearish strategy is recommended. [2] - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand pattern is weakening, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended. [2] - **Glass**: It is expected to be weak, and a bearish view is recommended. [2] - **Natural Rubber**: Supported by overseas raw materials, the price is rising, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to face pressure at the upper level, and a mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, with attention to the pressure around 10,800. [2] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic supply is loose, and attention should be paid to the support around 3000. [2] - **Pig**: There are signs of stabilization in the spot market, and a 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy should be held. [2] - **Corn**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2200. [2] - **Edible Oils**: The price is rising, and the P contract may reach 8900 in the short term. [2] - **Sugar**: Under the pressure of production increase, it is expected to be weak. [2] - **Cotton**: With a global bumper harvest and weak domestic downstream trading, it is expected to be weak. [2] - **Egg**: The supply is still loose, and short - position stop - profit should be gradually carried out on dips for the 2512 contract. [2] - **Apple**: It may fluctuate around 9500 in the short term. [2] - **Jujube**: It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support around 9000. [2]

锌合金是以锌为基础，并加入铝、铜、镁、镉、铅、钛等元素组成的合金。常 温下呈蓝白色，有光泽，质地硬脆。锌合金的熔点约为 380 摄氏度，浇筑温度 在 440~460 摄氏度之间。其优点包括熔点低、流动性好、易于焊接和塑形加 工，在大气中耐腐蚀，废料便于回收和重炉。然而，其蠕变强度低，易发生自 然时效引起尺寸变化。 2 号锌合金具有较高的强度和硬度，主要用于高强度操 作的工业配件及重力铸造。3 号锌合金满足一般物理和机械性能要求，是应用 最广泛的一种，占市场消费量超过 80%，适用于玩具、灯具、装饰品等对机械 强度要求不高的铸件。4 号锌合金主要应用于浴室配件、厨具和成衣拉链。5 号锌合金加入了约 1%的铜，提高了硬度和强度，但延展性较低，适用于汽车 配件、机电配件等对机械强度有一定要求的铸件。8 号锌合金普遍应用于高压 聚氯化铝市场方面，受成本、供应与需求多重因素影响，2025 年价格 整体呈现高位回落并区间整理趋势。短期内电厂停产消息带来看涨情绪， 但长期来看，供需失衡问题未解决，市场仍面临挑战。 2025 年硫酸铝市场下游需求平淡，以刚需为主，对传统行业支撑有限。 年底价格预计保持稳中微涨态势，上涨幅度约 ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 品种 | 11月19日 | 11月18日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 6833 | 6785 | 48.00 | 0.71% | | | L2605 收盘价 | 6883 | 6852 | 31.00 | 0.45% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6434 | 6392 | 42.00 | 0.66% | | | PP2605 收盘价 | 6532 | 6497 | 35.00 | 0.54% | | | L15价差 | -50 | -67 | 17.00 | 25.37% | 元/吨 | | PP15价差 | -98 | -105 | 7.00 | 6.67% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6400 | 6360 | 40.00 | 0.63% | | | 华北LLDPE现货价格 | 6800 | 6770 | 30.00 | 0.44% | | | 华北 LL基差 | -30 | -10 | -20.00 | -200.00% | ...

| | | | 有色金属周度观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国投期货 | | 研究院有色金属团队 | 2025/11/18 | | 屋号 | 品种 | | 主要观点(最新逻辑变化) | | | | | 长期信仰与省求强弱。1）情绪:上周调价被动跟随板块节奏震荡上涨,且内外调价分别在8.8万、1万英元遇阻。一方面市场对长期铜价看 | | | | | 涨存"强信仰",包括矿辑损失的确定性、中长期需求增速预期的稳定。另一方面,年底市场关注清费强弱,英国政府结束作摆后,部分轻 济数据可能施压,且国内捐消费增速已较上半年转弱。2)国内供需:延续"供求两波",市场消息不多,业内关注上海拥年会加工费谈判 | | | | | 。用一現博86510元,最后交易日上海骑升水105元,广东升水10元。传统需求领域,如锦杆、线题中间开工率弱于去年同期。SM班库将- | | 1 | 第 | | 减少7300吨至19.38万吨。3)海外:刚果(金)卢阿拉巴州铜矿山体消歧逃难事故处于Hourondo矿区,结合综合语息可能是暴雨加大山体消 | | | | | 域风险,现场管控,而手工采矿人员聚集导致矿区桥梁 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the supply, demand, cost, profit, price, and spread of logs. It indicates that the supply - side pressure is decreasing, the demand remains weak with the approaching off - season and wood blue - stain period. The price is under pressure, and the market is expected to maintain a weak supply - demand balance in the future [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Log Overview - **Supply - side**: In September 2025, the number of arriving ships was 16, and the arrival volume was 53.1 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was about 200.13 million cubic meters, a 16.01% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the subsequent arrival will remain stable, and the supply - side pressure will decrease [7]. - **Demand and Inventory - side**: The weekly shipment volume and apparent demand show no significant improvement. The demand is weak, and the inventory is expected to fluctuate and adjust due to the weak demand despite the decrease in arrivals this week [9]. - **Price and Spread**: The outer - market quotation has a slight adjustment, the spot price is under pressure, and the wood - block price is stable. The spread is relatively stable, and the basis has certain support [11][13]. - **Cost and Profit**: The import cost of logs is expected to decline, and the import profit is decreasing [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spot market price is expected to be under pressure. The fundamentals of the futures market are weakly oscillating, and it is expected to be under pressure in the short term [17]. 3.2 Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report presents the weekly balance sheet of logs from June 6, 2025, to November 7, 2025, including arrival numbers, arrival volumes, daily shipment volumes, apparent demand, inventory by region and species, and the supply - demand difference [19]. 3.3 Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply - side**: It includes the shipment volume of New Zealand logs, log imports, and imports by species [25][27][30]. - **Demand - side**: It involves the daily shipment volume of logs, the real - estate market, and downstream analysis such as wood - block price, profit, and downstream substitutes [34][36][41]. - **Inventory - side**: It includes inventory summaries, inventory by species, and inventory by region [58][60][66]. 3.4 Part 4: Cost and Profit - **Log Import Cost and Profit**: Analyzes the import cost and profit of logs [72]. - **Log Delivery Profit**: Analyzes the delivery profit of logs [77]. 3.5 Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis - **Log Outer - market Quotation**: Analyzes the outer - market quotation of logs [82]. - **Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Prices**: Presents the seasonal price trends of radiation pine and spruce [85]. - **Seasonality of Radiation Pine and Spruce Spreads**: Analyzes the seasonal spread trends of radiation pine and spruce [98]. - **Basis between Radiation Pine and LG**: Analyzes the basis between radiation pine and LG [104]. - **Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread of LG Main Contracts**: Presents the seasonal chart and inter - month spread of LG main contracts [106].

Summary of Tianqi Materials Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Materials - **Industry**: Lithium battery materials, specifically focusing on electrolyte and cathode materials Key Points Sales and Profitability 1. **Electrolyte Sales**: In Q3, electrolyte sales remained high at approximately 190,000 tons, with a profit of around 800 RMB per ton despite price fluctuations [2][4] 2. **Cathode Material Sales**: Cathode material sales reached 32,000 tons, with losses narrowing compared to previous quarters. Expected monthly sales in Q4 are projected to exceed 15,000 tons, with an operating rate of 60%-70% [2][3] 3. **Net Profit**: The company reported a net profit of 150 million RMB in Q3, including 14 million RMB from non-recurring gains, marking significant year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth [3] Pricing and Market Dynamics 1. **Electrolyte Pricing**: The pricing of electrolytes is linked to lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) prices, with expected prices in November between 80,000 to 85,000 RMB per ton, and over 90,000 RMB in December [2][4] 2. **Fluoride Products**: The company plans to maintain the price of difluoride products to increase market application from 2% to 3%-4%. Current capacity is 50,000 tons, with plans to expand to 100,000 tons by 2027 [2][6] 3. **Solid Electrolyte Development**: Progress in solid electrolyte development is on track, with kilogram-level samples expected by the end of 2025 and a pilot production line for hundreds of tons next year [2][7] Expansion and Future Plans 1. **Overseas Projects**: The Moroccan project is set to begin construction in Q4 2025, with completion expected in early 2028. The U.S. project for 200,000 tons of electrolyte is also underway [3][8][9] 2. **Production Capacity**: Plans to increase lithium hexafluorophosphate capacity to over 100,000 tons next year, prioritizing internal demand [3][11] 3. **Phosphate Iron Expansion**: The company plans to expand phosphate iron production by 300,000 to 400,000 tons, with expectations of price increases next year [3][19] Market Conditions 1. **Industry Growth**: The industry is expected to grow by approximately 30% next year, with the company anticipating an increase in market share [3][15] 2. **Supply and Demand**: There is a current tight supply situation for electrolytes due to production issues and increased demand, but a balance is expected by November and December [3][20] 3. **Pricing Trends**: The company hopes to maintain lithium hexafluorophosphate prices between 100,000 to 110,000 RMB to ensure profitability [3][17] Challenges and Risks 1. **Cost Pressures**: The company faces potential short-term losses due to rising lithium hexafluorophosphate prices, but benefits from price declines [4][15] 2. **Market Competition**: Other high-cost producers like Wanhua and Lianhua have not yet resumed production, limiting their impact on the market [3][16] Additional Insights 1. **Customer Pricing Mechanism**: Pricing for customers is based on market averages, with discounts for long-term clients [3][27] 2. **Future Production Plans**: The company plans to start a 35,000-ton capacity project in mid-2026, contingent on market demand [3][24] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, market dynamics, and future strategies in the lithium battery materials industry.

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry in China is showing steady progress with a focus on high-end, intelligent, and green development, leading to improved corporate profitability [1][2] Production and Investment - In the first three quarters, the added value of the non-ferrous metal industry increased by 7.8% year-on-year, outperforming the national industrial growth rate by 1.6 percentage points [1] - The production of ten common non-ferrous metals reached 61.249 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [1] - Fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metal industry grew by 10.1% compared to the same period last year, with mining investment surging by 49.3% [1] Trade Performance - The total import and export trade of non-ferrous metals amounted to $305.66 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.4% [2] - Exports grew significantly by 19.8%, primarily driven by gold products [2] Price Trends - Prices for traditional industrial metals like copper and aluminum have risen, with copper averaging 78,285 yuan/ton (up 4.8%) and aluminum at 20,446 yuan/ton (up 3.7%) [2] - Conversely, prices for new energy metals are under downward pressure, although the rate of decline has slowed [2] Financial Performance - Major non-ferrous metal enterprises reported revenues of 7.398 trillion yuan, a 14.6% increase year-on-year, and total profits of 345.15 billion yuan, up 18.7% [2] - The industry is projected to achieve record revenues close to 10 trillion yuan and profits around 450 billion yuan by the end of the year [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Caustic Soda - In the short term, the supply of caustic soda is at a high level, the price of downstream alumina continues to weaken, industry profits are shrinking, and demand - side support is weak, resulting in insufficient support for market prices. In the medium term, as the demand procurement cycle approaches and downstream has restocking needs, caustic soda prices are expected to be supported. Considering the production schedule, there will be more alumina production in Q1 2026, so there may be concentrated stockpiling in Q4 2025, which may tighten spot liquidity. For non - aluminum sectors, after the National Day, as the previous non - aluminum inventory decreases, there may be purchasing willingness due to low prices. It is recommended to stop profiting on existing short positions and track downstream restocking rhythms [2]. PVC - This week, the PVC futures market stopped falling and stabilized, showing a volatile trend. On the supply side, there were still many maintenance enterprises this week, resulting in low production loads. However, it is expected that some maintenance enterprises will end maintenance next week, increasing production and bringing supply back to a high level. On the demand side, domestic downstream construction remains low, product orders are limited, and downstream continues to purchase on a need - to - basis at low prices. The cost of raw material calcium carbide has been rising, but the increase is limited, and the ethylene price may be lowered next week. The cost side provides bottom - level support. In the future, the logic of a lackluster peak season is expected to continue, the futures market will still face pressure, but the absolute price is already low, and a short - term operation strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory Caustic Soda Price and Market Trends - The caustic soda futures price has shown significant fluctuations due to various factors such as macro - economic conditions, alumina price changes, and cost movements. For example, factors like the relaxation of Sino - US tariff conflicts, the strengthening of alumina profits, and the expectation of alumina production resumption have affected the spot - buying willingness and futures prices [6]. Supply - The weekly weighted average operating load rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country was 85.55%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from last week. The caustic soda production in terms of 100% purity was 82.53 tons, a 0.12% increase from last week. Although there were many chlor - alkali device maintenance activities, some enterprises with previously low loads increased their production. Multiple enterprises across different regions are in maintenance or have planned maintenance, with a total weekly maintenance loss of 6.92 tons [25][26]. Demand - Alumina is a major downstream consumer of caustic soda. From late 2025 to 2026, the planned alumina production capacity is 12.3 million tons (including 2 million tons of replacement), with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The estimated alumina annual output in 2026 will exceed 88 million tons, with a production growth rate of around 6%. The new alumina projects are expected to increase the demand for caustic soda by about 800,000 tons per year, with a relatively concentrated demand increase of 150,000 tons from April to June. In addition, the non - aluminum downstream sectors, such as the printing and dyeing industry, have a seasonal increase in the operating rate, while the viscose staple fiber industry has a decline in the operating rate [30][50]. Export - In September 2025, the export profit of caustic soda increased, and the export volume rebounded significantly. However, the estimated export profit declined in October [54]. PVC Price and Market Trends - The PVC futures price has fluctuated due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic sentiment, and cost changes. The spot price has been weakening [61][62]. Supply - This week, the overall operating load rate of PVC powder was 73.74%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder was 71.65%, a 3.08 - percentage - point decrease, and the operating load rate of ethylene - based PVC powder was 78.56%, a 2.46 - percentage - point increase. Many enterprises are in long - term, current, or planned maintenance, which affects the supply of PVC [83][85]. Demand - The two major downstream sectors of PVC, profiles and pipes, are facing pressure from both demand and industry competition, and the industry's contribution is difficult to improve. The real - estate sector, with the goal of "reducing inventory and stabilizing prices," continues to have a negative impact on demand. According to sample data, downstream orders are significantly lower than the average of the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [93]. Inventory - PVC inventory has been continuously increasing, and the total inventory is at the highest level in recent years compared to the same period [101]. Export and Import - In September 2025, the PVC import volume was 14,400 tons, with an average import price of $736 per ton, and the cumulative import from January to September was 175,500 tons. The single - month import volume increased by 16.08% month - on - month and 7.73% year - on - year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.76%. The export volume in September was 346,400 tons, with an average export price of $612 per ton, and the cumulative export from January to September was 2.9216 million tons. The single - month export volume increased by 21.945% month - on - month and 24.53% year - on - year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 50.63% [119].