Sector Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding sector investment ratings in the reports. Core Views Oils and Fats - The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has been postponed to mid - May, making the future of soybean procurement uncertain. From January to February 2026, China imported 150 million tons of US soybeans, a significant decrease compared to the same period last year, while imports from Brazil increased by 83%. The international crude oil price is high, which supports the price of soybean as a raw material for biodiesel, but a sharp increase is unlikely. Domestically, the inspection of Brazilian soybeans has extended the customs clearance time, but the supply of soybeans remains sufficient. The spot basis price of soybean oil is affected. Palm oil futures in Malaysia are expected to fluctuate around 4,600 ringgit. After the end of the Eid al - Fitr, palm oil production will resume growth, which will suppress the market performance. Rapeseed oil futures have been consolidating at a high level. Oil mills have been actively purchasing Canadian rapeseed and selling forward basis positions. The basis price is expected to oscillate. Overall, the oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors and will likely show a complex trend [1]. Cotton - USDA's weekly cotton contract signing has declined slightly, with Vietnam being the main buyer, and China has significantly increased its imports of US cotton. A 30 - million - ton sliding - scale tariff quota has been officially issued, and the price difference between domestic and international cotton has narrowed. The drought in the main US cotton - producing areas persists, and the cotton inspection progress has exceeded 100%, with an expected final inspection volume of around 3.05 million tons. US cotton is expected to fluctuate widely between 65 - 70 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the issuance of additional quotas has led to a rapid narrowing of the price difference between domestic and international cotton, but it remains at a relatively high level. If the international cotton market does not rise, Zhengzhou cotton will face pressure, but the strong demand for cotton raw materials from spinning enterprises will provide support. In the short term, cotton prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2]. Sugar - Due to rainfall in the main sugar - producing areas, the soil moisture has improved, and the expected cane crushing volume in the 26/27 season in the central - southern region of Brazil has been raised to 620 - 630 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15 - 25 million tons. However, due to sugar mills' preference for ethanol production, the estimated sugar production in Brazil has been lowered. In India, the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season is coming to an end. As of March 15, the cumulative sugar production was 26.175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 10%. The final sugar production in India this season is expected to be lower. Internationally, there are many positive factors, and the raw sugar market is expected to remain oscillating strongly in the short term. In China, from January to February 2026, the total sugar imports were 520,000 tons, exceeding market expectations. The spot market sales are weak, but the price is stable above 5,400 yuan per ton. The futures market is strong due to the overall strength of commodities and potential policy expectations, but the weak production and sales performance in February and the significant year - on - year increase in industrial inventory will limit the upward space. In the short term, sugar futures are likely to remain at a high level and oscillate strongly [4]. Red Dates - The red dates market has entered the off - season. In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, most of the arriving goods are sub - standard dates, and the supply of finished products is small. Sellers are eager to sell. The Guangdong Ruyifang market has weak trading, with low consumer demand and weak stocking willingness among traders. The inventory reduction is slow, and the registration of futures warehouse receipts has decreased year - on - year. Affected by macro - funds and the good quality of new dates, the futures market has rebounded slightly in the low - valuation range, but the upward movement of futures prices is limited by the weak market reality. Future attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm and weather changes [5]. Apples - With the start of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, the market's purchasing willingness has increased. The proportion of high - quality apples in the market is still low, the mainstream price is stable, and the price of high - quality apples in some areas has increased slightly. Recently, some buyers looking for high - quality apples have shifted from the western to the Shandong production areas, and the inquiry for high - quality apples in Qixia, Shandong has increased significantly, with a slight increase in transactions. The foreign trade orders are performing well. As seasonal fruits are out of season, the demand for apples is gradually released, and the national apple inventory is continuously decreasing. As of March 18, 2026, the inventory in the main apple - producing areas was 4.6843 million tons, a decrease of 312,900 tons from the previous week, and the decline rate has accelerated. In the short term, driven by demand and supported by low inventory, the futures market is expected to oscillate strongly [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the supply side, due to the rising temperature and the need for cash before the spring plowing, farmers in the production areas are more willing to sell their grains. Coupled with continuous policy releases, the supply is slightly increasing, and the price is stable with a slight downward trend. The price at the northern ports has decreased slightly due to the increase in the collection volume. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is continuously increasing, and there is still a need for replenishment. Feed enterprises are suffering losses and have a general demand for high - priced corn, and some areas are using wheat as a substitute. The wheat auction volume has increased to 800,000 tons, which supplements the supply to some extent. In the short term, the increase in corn supply and the substitution of wheat will put pressure on the price, but the rigid demand for replenishment from downstream enterprises will limit the decline. Overall, the price will remain oscillating at a high level. Attention should be paid to future policy releases [9]. Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - The US soybean market is worried about export prospects, and the potential biodiesel policy has been postponed to April, leading to a decline in US soybean prices. However, the oil price provides support, limiting the decline of US soybeans. In the domestic market, there are concerns about the continuity of shutdowns and supplies, so the提货 enthusiasm is high, and oil mills are eager to maintain prices. The inventory is continuously decreasing, which supports the soybean meal price. Currently, the short - term arrival of goods is tight, supporting the spot price. Although US soybeans have declined, there is a possibility that the Brazilian premium will rebound. The soybean meal market is expected to remain oscillating at a high level, waiting for the planting intention report at the end of March. There is a negative expectation of an increase in soybean planting area, but the risk is limited [12]. Pigs - Recently, the pig slaughter volume has been large, and group farms have increased their sales. The average slaughter weight has remained high, the price difference between fat and lean pigs has weakened, and the price in some weight segments has been inverted, which is not conducive to the entry of secondary fattening. In the off - season of demand, the downstream procurement is slowly recovering, and although the slaughter volume has increased, the boost is limited. The market is currently focusing on secondary fattening and frozen product warehousing. The upward pressure is significant, the capital is tight, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. The overall motivation for slaughterhouses to enter the market is limited, and most of the inventory increase is passive. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is limited, the cost is rising, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is also not conducive to holding pigs for fattening. It is expected that both futures and spot prices will continue to bottom out, and there is a possibility that the near - month contracts will fall below 10,000 [14]. Eggs - On the supply side, the price of culled hens has been high recently and has shown signs of decline. Farmers' willingness to cull has increased, and the number of culled hens has increased slightly. The number of newly - laying hens has increased slightly month - on - month but remains at a relatively low level. Overall, the market supply is still relatively loose, but due to the light inventory pressure in each link, the shipping pressure on the supply side next week is expected to be relatively small. On the demand side, the current market demand is still weak. The terminal mainly consumes inventory, and the procurement rhythm is slow. Food enterprises adopt a strategy of replenishing inventory at low prices and have not formed a continuous increase in demand. However, with the start of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking next week, the festival effect is expected to gradually appear. The increase in short - distance travel may drive the consumption in the catering channel to increase, and supermarkets are expected to increase promotional efforts, which will stimulate the purchasing intention of households. Therefore, the market demand is expected to improve temporarily under the boost of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking. Overall, with the boost of the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking, there is a possibility of a phased improvement, but considering the continuous supply pressure and the adverse impact of rising temperatures on storage, the egg price is expected to continue to oscillate within a narrow range [16]. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats - **Price Changes**: On March 20, the spot price of soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8,950 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2605 was 8,628 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The basis of Y2605 was 322 yuan/ton, up 9.52%. The spot basis in Jiangsu in March was 05 + 300. The number of warehouse receipts was 24,892, down 1.78%. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged at 9,748 yuan/ton. The spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil was - 798 yuan/ton, up 4.77%. The price difference between 2605 contracts of soybean oil and palm oil was - 1,090 yuan/ton, up 7.63%. The import cost of palm oil in Guangzhou Port in May was 10,171.5 yuan/ton, up 0.87%. The price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil in 2602 was 1,248 yuan/ton, up 0.81%. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,308 yuan/ton, up 0.29%. The futures price of OIROS was 9,876 yuan/ton, up 0.22%. The basis of O1605 was 432 yuan/ton, up 1.89%. The spot basis in Jiangsu in March was 05 + 400. The number of warehouse receipts was 805, unchanged [1]. - **Inventory and Market Conditions**: The inventory of soybean oil in Chinese crushing plants was 1.2 million tons. The inventory of palm oil in China was 1.4 million tons. The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal crushing plants in China was 621,000 tons, down 24.36% [1]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: On March 23, the price of cotton 2605 was 15,215 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; the price of cotton 2609 was 15,320 yuan/ton, up 0.10%. The price difference between 5 - 9 contracts was - 105 yuan/ton, down 10.53%. The trading volume of the main contract was 592,451, down 4.41%. The number of warehouse receipts was 12,400, down 0.30%; the number of effective forecasts was 328, up 1.55% [2]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 16,480 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The CC Index of 3128B was 16,649 yuan/ton, down 0.44%. The FC Index of M: 1% was 13,118 yuan/ton, down 1.27%. The price difference between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1,265 yuan/ton, down 5.88%; the price difference between 3128B and the 09 contract was 1,160 yuan/ton, down 7.13%. The price difference between the CC Index of 3128B and the FC Index of M: 1% was 3,531 yuan/ton, up 2.79% [2]. - **Industry Conditions**: The yarn inventory was 0, down 100%. The industrial inventory was 1.024 million tons, up 14.5%. The import volume was 166,500 tons, down 19.0%. The bonded area inventory was 471,000 tons, up 9.8%. The inventory days of yarn were 21.45 days, down 1.2%. The inventory days of grey cloth were 33.24 days, up 0.3%. The immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises for C32s was - 2,213.90 yuan/ton, up 5.6%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 166.1 billion yuan, up 7.7%. The year - on - year growth rate of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles was 0.60%, down 82.9%. The export volume of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was 1.1383 billion US dollars, down 9.5%. The export volume of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.1061 billion US dollars, down 19.9% [2]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: On March 23, the price of sugar 2605 was 5,439 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the price of sugar 2609 was 5,469 yuan/ton, up 0.53%. The price difference between 5 - 9 contracts was - 30 yuan/ton, down 30.43%. The trading volume of the main contract was 354,040, down 4.86%. The number of warehouse receipts was 16,342, unchanged; the number of effective forecasts was 0 [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5,315 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis in Nanning was 21 yuan/ton, down 51.16%; the basis in Kunming was - 124 yuan/ton, down 21.57%. The import price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4,292 yuan/ton, up 2.78%; the import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 5,446 yuan/ton, up 2.85%. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar within the quota and the Nanning price was - 1,168 yuan/ton, up 9.03%; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota and the Nanning price was - 14 yuan/ton, up 91.52% [4]. - **Industry Conditions**: The cumulative national sugar production was 9.26 million tons, down 4.69%. The cumulative national sugar sales were 3.45 million tons, down 27.39%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 5.6513 million tons, down 8.36%. The sugar sales in Guangxi were 1.6223 million tons, up 20.16%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 37.30%, down 23.72%. The cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 35.25%, down 24.60%. The national industrial inventory was 5.81 million tons, up 17.03%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Guangxi was 3.659 million tons, up 11.43%. The industrial inventory of sugar in Yunnan was 795,900 tons, up 17.42%. The sugar import volume was 580,000 tons, up 48.72% [4]. Red Dates - **Futures Market**: On March 23, the price of red dates 2605 (main contract) was 8,840 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the price of red dates 2607 was 9,030 yuan/ton, up 0.11%; the price of red dates 2609 was 9,235 yuan/ton, up 0.22%. The price difference between 5 - 7 contracts was - 190 yuan/ton, up 2.56%; the price difference between 5 - 9 contracts was - 395 yuan/ton, down 1.28%. The trading volume was 170,990, down 1.12%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4,112, unchanged; the number of effective forecasts was 174, unchanged; the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 4,286, unchanged [5]. - **Spot Market

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Aluminum**: This week, there were no significant production increases or decreases in the supply side, and the operating capacity remained stable. On the demand side, the aluminum rod and aluminum plate industries continued to resume production, with an increase in capacity utilization. However, the sharp increase in spot prices suppressed transactions, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate. The spill - over of overseas geopolitical risks intensified macro risks, and the market showed a strong and volatile trend [3]. - **Alumina**: This week, alumina supply increased slightly, but overall supply was still in excess. In the short term, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will remain stable, and the demand for alumina will continue to be high. This week, the spot price of alumina rose, trading picked up, and the factory inventory decreased slightly, but the total inventory was still high. In the short term, the logic of rising energy costs is dominant, and the price will be volatile and slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Aluminum Futures and Spot**: The report presents data on the closing price and trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum futures and LME aluminum futures, as well as the basis, spread, and price differences in different regions of aluminum spot [5][10][11]. - **Alumina Futures and Spot**: It shows the closing price and trading volume of alumina futures, as well as the spot price, basis, spread, and price differences in different regions of alumina [14][15][18]. 3.2 Upstream Supply - **Bauxite**: It includes the monthly production of domestic bauxite by province, monthly import volume, and port inventory [22][23]. - **Alumina**: The monthly production, weekly operating rate by province, monthly import volume, and import profit and loss of alumina are presented [25][28][30]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly and weekly production, monthly net import, and import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum are shown, as well as the weekly delivery volume of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods [34][35][39]. 3.3 Downstream Demand - **Aluminum Products Production**: The production of aluminum rods, profiles, rods, plates, foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots is presented on a weekly or monthly basis [40]. - **Industry Operating Rate**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of various aluminum - related industries, such as aluminum profiles, plates, foils, and cables, are shown [44][52]. - **Exports**: The monthly export volume and export profit of unforged aluminum and aluminum products are presented [56][57]. - **Related Industries**: Data on the construction, automotive, power grid, and photovoltaic industries, such as housing construction and completion area, vehicle production, power grid investment, and photovoltaic installation volume, are also provided [61][62][64]. 3.4 Inventory - **Bauxite Inventory**: The monthly inventory of bauxite in China and in specific provinces is presented [69]. - **Alumina Inventory**: The factory inventory and inventory days of alumina enterprises, as well as the SHFE alumina warehouse receipt volume, are shown [72][73]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The LME aluminum inventory, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt quantity, social inventory, inventory days of electrolytic aluminum, and the spot inventory of aluminum rods and the combined inventory of aluminum ingots and rods are presented [73][74][76]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Raw Material Prices**: The prices of domestic and imported bauxite, 32% ion - membrane caustic soda, pre - baked anodes, power coal, Dutch natural gas, and European electricity are presented [78][79][80]. - **Cost and Profit of Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum**: The cost and profit of alumina and electrolytic aluminum are shown [78][80].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean market is expected to remain strong, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [1]. - Corn fundamentals are still strong, and it is recommended to replenish stocks or buy on dips [2]. - Egg prices are expected to be stable with a slight upward trend, and a low - long strategy is recommended [2]. - The pig market is in a key game period of short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance, and the near - term is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Northeast soybean prices have been rising since the listing. After the Chinese New Year, due to geopolitical conflicts, futures rally, and Cofco's increased purchase price, the price of the remaining soybeans has continued to rise. After a small amount of restocking, the overall market trading is still light [1]. Corn - In Northeast China, the remaining grain at the grass - roots level is less than 30%. As the temperature rises and the spot price increases, the remaining grain is gradually released. The post - holiday operating rate of processing enterprises has increased slightly, and the overall downstream demand is okay. The purchase price remains strong. On the 9th, all the grain sources put up by Sinograin were sold, with a large local premium [1]. Egg - As of the end of February 2026, the national laying hen inventory was 1.35 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The number of newly - laid hens from March to April 2026 will decrease significantly. The laying hen inventory will enter a downward channel from April to May. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend [2]. Pig - As of the end of December 2025, the national breeding sow inventory was 39.61 million, 101.6% of the normal level. In January 2026, it slightly decreased to 39.58 million, still above the regulatory red line. The first half of 2026 will face greater pressure on pig slaughter. The state has carried out pork purchases, and it is expected that subsequent purchases will continue. The industry is in a key game period, and the near - term is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [3][4].

MDI Industry Conference Call Summary Industry Overview - Global MDI capacity expansion is primarily concentrated in Wanhua's Fujian and BASF's US facilities, expected to be operational by 2026, with total global capacity potentially reaching 12 million tons by then. By 2030, capacity is projected to be around 12.6 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 1.2% [2][5] - The supply-demand imbalance in the industry is expected to ease, with consumption growth potentially outpacing capacity growth [2][5] Consumption and Growth Projections - Global MDI consumption is expected to grow by 4.6% to 8.95 million tons in 2025, with the Asia-Pacific region leading in growth [2][6] - In China, consumption growth is projected at about 7%, driven mainly by domestic demand, despite a year-on-year production decline of 3-4% [2][6] - The automotive sector is anticipated to see a consumption growth rate exceeding 10%, benefiting from the increased penetration of electric vehicles [2][6][7] Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Prices for both polymeric MDI and pure MDI are expected to decline in 2025, with polymeric MDI prices remaining low in 2026 while pure MDI prices may see a slight increase [2][8] - Domestic manufacturers are likely to shift strategies towards maintaining market share, alleviating cost pressures for downstream applications [2][8] Trade and Tariff Impacts - Tariff policies are affecting China's MDI and downstream product exports, particularly to the US. A potential easing of US tariff policies could benefit appliance exports [2][9] - There is a trend of industrial transfer towards Southeast Asia in sectors like refrigeration and automotive, leading to a more regionalized export market structure [2][9] Capacity Expansion Details - By the end of 2025, global MDI capacity is expected to be around 11.12 million tons, with new capacity additions of approximately 130,000 tons, all from China [3][5] - Key expansions include Wanhua's Fujian project increasing from 800,000 tons to 1.5 million tons and BASF's US facility expanding from 400,000 tons to 600,000 tons, both expected to be operational in the second half of 2026 [3][5][11] Regional Consumption Insights - In 2025, the Asia-Pacific region is projected to have the highest growth rate at approximately 8.3%, while North America is expected to grow by about 2% [6] - China's actual consumption is estimated at 3.6 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of about 7% [6] Emerging Applications and Market Shifts - New applications in cold storage panels and refrigerated containers are experiencing growth, while demand in construction-related insulation is declining due to the real estate cycle [2][6][7] - The cold storage industry is expected to see a significant increase in production, with a growth rate of around 50% in refrigerated containers [7] Challenges and Future Outlook - The MDI industry is facing challenges from fluctuating raw material prices and the need for manufacturers to adapt to changing market conditions [10][16] - The overall consensus is that the industry will experience moderate growth rates of about 3-4% annually, with expectations for China's MDI consumption to exceed 4.2 million tons by 2030 [9][10] Conclusion - The MDI industry is poised for gradual growth, driven by capacity expansions and increasing consumption in key sectors such as automotive and refrigeration. However, challenges such as tariff impacts and fluctuating prices will require strategic adjustments from manufacturers to maintain market stability and profitability [2][5][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in various commodity prices and indices in February, highlighting the impact of geopolitical events, seasonal trends, and market dynamics on pricing across different sectors. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - The BPI index recorded 947 points as of February 27, reflecting a 1.0% decrease from the end of January, with energy and non-ferrous metal indices showing month-on-month changes of -0.1% and -6.1% respectively [1][5][6] - In the industrial construction sector, prices for thermal coal, rebar, and glass increased, while coking coal and chemical products adjusted downwards, with the cement price index slightly declining by 1.1% month-on-month [9][10] - The South China Sea thermal coal spot price increased by 6.8%, rebar by 1.2%, while coking coal decreased by 5.7% and glass by 0.3% month-on-month [9][10] Group 2: Real Estate Market - The second-hand housing prices in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showed signs of recovery, with Shanghai and Shenzhen experiencing price increases for two consecutive months [12] - As of February 16, the second-hand housing price indices for Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen recorded changes of 0.9%, 0.3%, -0.8%, and 0.6% respectively compared to the last week of January [12] Group 3: Emerging Manufacturing Prices - Prices for lithium carbonate and rare earths in the emerging manufacturing sector remained strong, while the photovoltaic industry composite index fell by 1.7% month-on-month [2][10] - The lithium carbonate futures price increased by 11.5% month-on-month, influenced by export policies from Zimbabwe [13] Group 4: Electronics Pricing Trends - There is a trend of price increases for electronic products, with new smartphone models expected to rise by 100-600 yuan compared to previous generations, and mid-range models also seeing price hikes [16] - Major brands are likely to initiate a new round of price adjustments for their entire product lines starting in early March [16] Group 5: Shipping and Logistics - The export shipping sector saw a decline in prices, with the CCFI index dropping by 11.1% as of the fourth week of February [16][17] - The WCID container freight indices for routes from Shanghai to Los Angeles and New York decreased by 10.3% and 6.7% respectively [16][17] Group 6: Food Prices - Food prices exhibited mixed trends, with the average wholesale price of pork falling by 4.9% and key vegetable prices decreasing by 5.7% month-on-month [20][21] - The average wholesale price of seven monitored fruits remained stable, while yellow corn futures increased by 2.8% [20][21] Group 7: Consumer Price Index Trends - The ICPI index, representing non-food prices, showed a seasonal decline, recording a value of 99.93 as of the fourth week of February, down from 100.21 in January [24] - The BCI index for intermediate goods prices showed a decrease, while the consumer goods price index rose significantly, indicating a shift in price expectations in the consumer sector [25]

Core Viewpoint - The price of pure benzene has increased due to rising crude oil prices, with the East China market closing at 6165 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton compared to the pre-holiday period [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - During the holiday period, crude oil prices rose significantly, boosting market sentiment and leading to a rapid increase in Asian pure benzene prices, which in turn affected domestic spot prices [1] - On the first working day after the holiday, downstream purchasing was primarily based on demand, with buyers taking advantage of lower prices [1] Group 2: Inventory and Price Pressure - The inventory at major ports in East China continues to rise, which is putting pressure on spot prices and limiting the extent of price increases [1] - In the short term, the arrival of pure benzene at East China main ports remains high, and the sentiment among holders is somewhat unstable, suggesting that pure benzene prices may weaken [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on the black sector by Shan Jin Futures, covering steel products (rebar, hot-rolled coil) and iron ore [1] Group 2: Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil Core View - The market is in a holiday mode with weak supply and demand, expected to resume after the Lantern Festival. The market has a relatively weak demand expectation for 2026. The futures price is in a downward trend but the downside space may be limited due to low valuation [2] Operation Suggestion - Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and do not recommend chasing short positions [2] Data Summary - **Price**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures prices decreased, with rebar down -0.13% and -1.64% compared to the previous day and last week respectively, and hot-rolled coil down -0.31% and -1.38% [2] - **Production**: The production of rebar and hot-rolled coil decreased, with rebar production down 11.75% and hot-rolled coil down 0.45% week-on-week [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products and rebar increased, with the five major products' social inventory up 5.58% and rebar social inventory up 12.11% [2] - **Demand**: Apparent demand was at a low level, with the apparent demand of five major products down 5.12% week-on-week[2] Group 3: Iron Ore Core View - The market is in a holiday mode, expected to enter the consumption peak season after the Lantern Festival. Supply is affected by seasonal factors, with short-term shipments expected to be low and then recover. The futures price is in a downward trend [4] Operation Suggestion - Hold short positions with a light position [4] Data Summary - **Price**: Iron ore spot and futures prices decreased, with the DCE iron ore main contract settlement price down -0.07% and -0.85% compared to the previous day and last week respectively [4] - **Supply**: Overseas shipments decreased, with Australian shipments down 31.16% and Brazilian shipments down 3.84% week-on-week [4] - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased to a record high, up 0.70% week-on-week [4] Group 4: Industry News - In January 2026, Mongolia's coal production was 10.1689 million tons, a 2.26% month-on-month decrease and a 55.74% year-on-year increase [6] - The EU Commission Vice-President mentioned that the US is researching steel derivative tariffs [7] - From February 16th to 22nd, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces decreased by 81.55% week-on-week [7]

Group 1: Wheat Market Overview - Wheat prices in January showed a slight recovery after a period of decline, with average prices in major production areas at 2496.99 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 0.40 yuan/ton but a year-on-year increase of 5.94% [1] - The market faced mixed influences, including reduced willingness to sell among grain merchants and limited processing demand from flour enterprises, which constrained price increases [1] - In February, the wheat market maintained stability at high levels, with minor fluctuations observed [3] Group 2: Consumption Market - In January, the wheat purchasing prices for flour enterprises initially decreased but later increased due to a cautious selling mentality among farmers and limited processing demand [3] - The average operating load of small and medium-sized flour enterprises increased to 41.93%, up 2.79 percentage points from the previous month, although the overall increase was modest [3] - The flour industry faced a "weak peak season," with limited order increases and high raw material costs, leading to price declines for flour that outpaced those of wheat [3] Group 3: Wheat Futures and Import Data - The CBOT wheat futures experienced fluctuations, with the March contract closing at 523.5 cents/bushel, a 0.62% increase from December [7] - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of wheat and wheat flour, a year-on-year increase of 273.4%, while the total import volume for the year was 3.98 million tons, a decrease of 64.4% [8] Group 4: Global Wheat Supply and Demand Forecast - Global wheat supply, consumption, trade volume, and ending stocks all increased in January, with supply up by 4.3 million tons to 110.22 million tons, primarily due to increased production in Argentina and Russia [8] - Argentina's wheat production was raised by 3.5 million tons to a record 27.5 million tons, while Russia's production was adjusted up by 2 million tons to 89.5 million tons [8] - Global wheat consumption was forecasted to rise by 900,000 tons to 82.39 million tons, driven by increased consumption in Russia, Ukraine, and Morocco [8] Group 5: Future Market Analysis - The wheat market is expected to remain stable but may trend weaker in the short term due to a supply-demand imbalance, with processing enterprises concluding their pre-holiday stockpiling [11] - The continued release of policy wheat is expected to keep market supply ample, with controlled risks for significant price fluctuations [11] - Post-holiday, demand may weaken further, potentially leading to slight price declines for wheat [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined, represented by 'なな女' [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined, represented by 'なな☆' and 'ななな' [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined, represented by 'ななな' [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined, represented by '文文文' [1] - Zinc: Not clearly defined, represented by 'な☆☆' [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Not clearly defined, represented by '立☆☆' [1] - Tin: Not clearly defined, represented by 'な女女' [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined, represented by 'ななな' [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined, represented by 'なな☆' [1] - Polysilicon: Not clearly defined, represented by 'な女女' [1] 2. Core Views - The copper market continues to have a narrow - range shock, and it is advisable to continue the reverse arbitrage idea. The post - holiday seasonal inventory accumulation may first pressure the price and then the price may rise again based on the demand expectations [2]. - The aluminum market has a weak fundamental situation, with inventory performance significantly weaker than in previous years. There is still adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. The cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price fluctuations but has weak follow - up ability. The alumina market has a reduced operating capacity and production, but the oversupply prospect remains unchanged [3]. - The zinc market has a short - term structural contradiction, with the external market being strong and the export window about to open, which eases the downward pressure on Shanghai zinc. The market is waiting for the guidance of non - farm data [4]. - The nickel and stainless - steel market has a rebound in nickel prices but weak trading. The social inventory continues to increase, and the market is mainly driven by policy sentiment [7]. - The tin market continues to rebound with the upper resistance at the MA20 moving average. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday supply and consumption trends [8]. - The lithium carbonate market has a rebound but weak trading. The inventory structure has changed, and there is a high inventory in the mid - stream. The short - term uncertainty is high [9]. - The industrial silicon market price weakens after breaking through 8400 yuan/ton. The supply is in a phased contraction, and the demand from downstream industries is expected to decline. The price is expected to continue a weak trend [10]. - The polysilicon market has a slight increase in futures prices with narrowed fluctuations. The production decreases, and the market is expected to have a slight de - stocking. The price is expected to continue an oscillating trend [11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - The Shanghai copper has had a narrow - range shock for three consecutive trading days, and the 0 - 1 month spread has expanded to 440 yuan. It is recommended to follow the reverse arbitrage idea. The post - holiday seasonal inventory accumulation may first pressure the price and then it may rise again based on demand expectations [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum oscillates. The spot premiums and discounts in East China, Central China, and Foshan are - 190 yuan, - 290 yuan, and - 40 yuan respectively. The aluminum bar processing fee is less than 100 yuan. The inventory is significantly weaker than in previous years, and there is adjustment pressure around the Spring Festival. The cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price but has weak follow - up ability. The domestic alumina operating capacity drops to around 9400 yuan, with a phased production decline, but the oversupply situation remains unchanged [3] Zinc - The SMM zinc average price is 24460 yuan/ton, with a real - time premium of 20 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The spot trading is light. There is a short - term structural contradiction, the external market is strong, and the zinc ingot export window is about to open, which eases the downward pressure on Shanghai zinc. The market is waiting for the guidance of non - farm data [4] Aluminum - The aluminum price is at a low level. The production cuts of primary and recycled aluminum smelters increase, and most downstream enterprises are on holiday. The spot market shows a situation of double - decline in supply and demand. The SMM1 aluminum average price is 16575 yuan/ton, and the discount to the near - month contract narrows to 35 yuan/ton. The overseas aluminum ingots are in surplus, and the import window remains open. The Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a low level within the price range of 16,500 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel rebounds, but the market trading is light. The news about the Indonesian quota causes speculation. The social inventory of nickel and stainless steel continues to increase. The market confidence declines, and the transaction is light. The pure nickel inventory increases by 3000 tons to 73,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increases by 15,000 tons to 869,000 tons. The market is in a pre - festival state, waiting for a clear situation [7] Tin - The Shanghai tin continues to rebound, with the upper resistance at the MA20 moving average. The overseas LME tin inventory continues to increase, and the LME spot discount is 159 US dollars. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday supply trend and peak - season consumption rhythm [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate rebounds, but the market trading is light. A large number of hedging positions have been closed during the rapid price increase. The total market inventory decreases by 2000 tons to 105,000 tons. The short - term uncertainty is high [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon price weakens after breaking through 8400 yuan/ton. The supply has a phased contraction, but there is a复产 expectation after the festival. The downstream polysilicon is expected to reduce production by more than 20,000 tons, and the organic silicon may reduce the demand for industrial silicon by about 90,000 tons if the emission reduction target is implemented. The December export volume is 59,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8%. The social inventory rises to 562,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8000 tons. The price is expected to continue a weak trend [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rise slightly, and the market fluctuations narrow. The industry's fully - cost - inclusive tax for silicon materials is about 54,125 yuan/ton. The February production decreases by more than 20% month - on - month, and the downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decrease by 3%. The market is expected to have a slight de - stocking. The latest silicon material manufacturer inventory is 341,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 8000 tons. The price is expected to continue an oscillating trend [11]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Shandong reformed aromatics market is expected to experience a "dual decline" in supply and demand, with an overall oversupply situation persisting, leading to a downward trend in prices for reformed aromatics, which may remain weak in 2026 [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The oversupply situation is expected to exert downward pressure on prices, as gasoline consumption peaks and the demand for raw materials in the market declines. The capacity utilization rate for reformed aromatics is projected to be 31.85%, down 8.58 percentage points year-on-year, with a production volume of 2.4841 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.24% [2] - The demand for reformed aromatics is anticipated to continue declining in 2025, with a projected demand of 2.45 million tons, representing a nearly 25% year-on-year decrease. This decline is attributed to the strong substitutability of the raw materials and a decrease in gasoline production from independent refineries in Shandong [2] Seasonal Demand Characteristics - The demand for reformed aromatics aligns closely with gasoline consumption patterns, which have shown weakened seasonal characteristics in recent years. Traditional peak seasons around the Spring Festival and from May to October have not resulted in significant price movements for reformed aromatics [3] Price Trends and Seasonal Index - The price of reformed aromatics is expected to fluctuate in five distinct phases throughout 2025: 1. January to February: Prices are expected to rise due to pre-holiday stocking and stable demand [6] 2. March to May: Prices are projected to decline as gasoline consumption falls short of expectations, leading to a weak demand for raw materials [6] 3. June: Prices may rise due to fluctuations in international oil prices, although demand remains generally weak [6] 4. July to October: Prices are expected to decline, with weak gasoline demand and a lack of traditional peak season characteristics [7] 5. November to December: Prices may stabilize with overall steady demand, leading to a slight upward trend [7] Future Market Predictions - In 2026, no new production facilities for reformed aromatics are planned, leading to limited fluctuations in supply. The overall refining capacity in China may decline year-on-year, with a projected decrease in gasoline output, further exacerbating the oversupply situation. Consequently, the demand for reformed aromatics is expected to continue its downward trend, with prices likely to experience a range-bound fluctuation [9]