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专家分享:有机硅行业现状与展望
2025-09-28 14:57
专家分享:有机硅行业现状与展望 20250926 摘要 全球有机硅产能向中国转移,2025 年中国有机硅单体产能占全球 77.33%,较 2021 年提升 10.39%。海外产能因成本等因素下降,中 国聚硅氧烷进口依存度降至 5%以下,主要进口高端及特殊用途产品。 中国有机硅单体产能增速放缓,2025 年无新增产能释放。新疆、云南、 内蒙古等地因成本优势成为新建产能集中地,华东地区凭借地理优势产 能占比过半。行业开工率有所回落,前三季度为 76.15%。 2025 年 DMC 价格跌至近十年新低,受供应端快速增长和需求端增速有 限影响。春节后企业曾限产保价,但随着盈利恢复,开工率提升导致供 应增加,价格承压下行。前三季度中间体累计消费量同比微增 5.5%。 有机硅下游产品消费结构中,硅橡胶占比下降,硅油需求增速加快。 2024 年硅橡胶需求占比降至 59%,硅油占比提升至 38.77%,特种和 改性硅油市场快速发展,对有机硅中间体的消费持续上升。 中国聚硅氧烷出口量增长放缓,但仍保持高位。2025 年前 8 个月出口 同比增长 1.47%,出口依赖度为 21.23%。全球产能转移、价格优势和 质量提升推动出口 ...
联检科技:公司将通过业务结构的持续优化,聚焦高附加值的新兴领域
Core Viewpoint - The company, Lianjian Technology, is focusing on optimizing its business structure to target high-value emerging sectors such as new energy and electronics, which are rapidly developing markets [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - The company aims to enhance performance through continuous business structure optimization and focusing on high-value emerging fields [1] - The strategy includes leveraging synergies from external mergers and acquisitions, as well as deepening international expansion to support performance growth [1] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The company is driving digitalization and technological innovation by building an intelligent detection platform and advancing the application of AI and IoT technologies to improve detection efficiency and service quality [1] Group 3: Global Expansion - The company is expanding its global footprint by tapping into the "Belt and Road" market, which will facilitate technology feedback and mutual recognition of qualifications, thereby enhancing international competitiveness [1] Group 4: Service Integration - The company is focusing on deepening its industry presence to create a one-stop service capability, promoting cross-domain resource integration and extending the industrial chain [1]
白银的挣扎:金银比破百之后
对冲研投· 2025-05-09 11:15
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the increasing gold-silver ratio, indicating that gold retains its monetary attributes more strongly than silver, which has a more pronounced commodity nature [1][5][6] - The gold-silver ratio has historically fluctuated, with significant increases observed during economic downturns, particularly in the 1980s and post-2008 financial crisis [2][3][6] - The recent rise in the gold-silver ratio is attributed to concerns over a potential U.S. economic recession, alongside the stronger monetary characteristics of gold compared to silver [5][6] Group 2 - The global silver supply is projected to be approximately 31,574 tons in 2024, with an expected increase of around 480 tons in 2025, primarily driven by mining output [11] - Silver's supply is increasingly influenced by by-products from copper and lead-zinc mining, with a notable portion of silver production coming from these sources [13][17] - The demand for silver is categorized into industrial, jewelry, and investment needs, with industrial demand expected to grow by about 4% in 2024, particularly driven by the solar energy sector [19][20] Group 3 - Speculative demand plays a crucial role in the pricing of precious metals, with gold being favored over silver during times of economic uncertainty [28][30] - The inflow of funds into gold ETFs often correlates with significant price increases, highlighting the impact of speculative trading on gold prices [30] - The Basel III regulations have enhanced the status of physical gold as a reserve asset for central banks, contributing to increased gold purchases and further supporting its price [32][33]
有机硅行业专题报告:产能快速扩张期已近尾声,行业供需格局有望改善
Dongguan Securities· 2025-03-27 08:59
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the organic silicon industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The rapid expansion phase of production capacity in the organic silicon industry is nearing its end, and the supply-demand balance is expected to improve [3] - The demand for organic silicon materials is anticipated to maintain a growth rate of over 10% due to emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and electronics [60] - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top three companies holding a market share of 45.93% and the top six companies holding approximately 69.19% [34] Summary by Sections 1. Wide Application of Organic Silicon Products - Organic silicon is widely used in various fields including aerospace, electronics, construction, transportation, chemicals, textiles, food, light industry, and medical applications [14] - The market share of organic silicon deep-processing products in China includes RTV (37.0%), HTV (29.4%), silicone oil (28.3%), LSR (3.6%), and silicone resin (1.8%) [18] 2. Supply Side: End of Rapid Capacity Expansion - As of 2024, China's organic silicon intermediate capacity is 3.44 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.82% from 2019 to 2024 [25] - The industry is currently experiencing losses due to previous overcapacity, and new capacity additions are expected to be limited, with only 100,000 tons planned for 2025 [34] 3. Demand Side: Strong Growth in Emerging Applications - The apparent consumption of organic silicon intermediates in China is projected to grow from 1.0615 million tons in 2019 to 1.8164 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.34% [39] - The demand for organic silicon in the new energy vehicle sector is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 16.40% from 2024 to 2030 [45] 4. Key Companies - Hoshine Silicon Industry (合盛硅业) focuses on the research, production, and sales of silicon-based new materials, with an organic silicon monomer production capacity of 1.73 million tons as of June 2024 [63]
永杰新材(603271):国内领先的锂电池铝材供应商,多领域共同发力
策 略 研 究 新股申购 2025 年 02 月 24 日 永杰新材:国内领先的锂电池铝材供 应商,多领域共同发力 ——注册制新股纵览 20250224 本期投资提示: 相关研究 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 胡巧云 A0230520080005 huqy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 申 购 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 证 研究支持 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱敏 (8621)23297818× zhumin@swsresearch.com 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ AHP 得分——剔除流动性溢价因素后,永杰新材 1.72 分,位于总分的 23.1%分位。永杰 新材于 2025 年 2 月 20 日招股,将在主板上市。剔除流动性溢价因素后,我们测算永杰新 材 AHP 得分为 1.72 分,位于非科创体系 AHP 模型总分 2 ...