Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the increasing gold-silver ratio, indicating that gold retains its monetary attributes more strongly than silver, which has a more pronounced commodity nature [1][5][6] - The gold-silver ratio has historically fluctuated, with significant increases observed during economic downturns, particularly in the 1980s and post-2008 financial crisis [2][3][6] - The recent rise in the gold-silver ratio is attributed to concerns over a potential U.S. economic recession, alongside the stronger monetary characteristics of gold compared to silver [5][6] Group 2 - The global silver supply is projected to be approximately 31,574 tons in 2024, with an expected increase of around 480 tons in 2025, primarily driven by mining output [11] - Silver's supply is increasingly influenced by by-products from copper and lead-zinc mining, with a notable portion of silver production coming from these sources [13][17] - The demand for silver is categorized into industrial, jewelry, and investment needs, with industrial demand expected to grow by about 4% in 2024, particularly driven by the solar energy sector [19][20] Group 3 - Speculative demand plays a crucial role in the pricing of precious metals, with gold being favored over silver during times of economic uncertainty [28][30] - The inflow of funds into gold ETFs often correlates with significant price increases, highlighting the impact of speculative trading on gold prices [30] - The Basel III regulations have enhanced the status of physical gold as a reserve asset for central banks, contributing to increased gold purchases and further supporting its price [32][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the organic silicon industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The rapid expansion phase of production capacity in the organic silicon industry is nearing its end, and the supply-demand balance is expected to improve [3] - The demand for organic silicon materials is anticipated to maintain a growth rate of over 10% due to emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and electronics [60] - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with the top three companies holding a market share of 45.93% and the top six companies holding approximately 69.19% [34] Summary by Sections 1. Wide Application of Organic Silicon Products - Organic silicon is widely used in various fields including aerospace, electronics, construction, transportation, chemicals, textiles, food, light industry, and medical applications [14] - The market share of organic silicon deep-processing products in China includes RTV (37.0%), HTV (29.4%), silicone oil (28.3%), LSR (3.6%), and silicone resin (1.8%) [18] 2. Supply Side: End of Rapid Capacity Expansion - As of 2024, China's organic silicon intermediate capacity is 3.44 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.82% from 2019 to 2024 [25] - The industry is currently experiencing losses due to previous overcapacity, and new capacity additions are expected to be limited, with only 100,000 tons planned for 2025 [34] 3. Demand Side: Strong Growth in Emerging Applications - The apparent consumption of organic silicon intermediates in China is projected to grow from 1.0615 million tons in 2019 to 1.8164 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.34% [39] - The demand for organic silicon in the new energy vehicle sector is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 16.40% from 2024 to 2030 [45] 4. Key Companies - Hoshine Silicon Industry (合盛硅业) focuses on the research, production, and sales of silicon-based new materials, with an organic silicon monomer production capacity of 1.73 million tons as of June 2024 [63]

策 略 研 究 新股申购 2025 年 02 月 24 日 永杰新材：国内领先的锂电池铝材供 应商，多领域共同发力 ——注册制新股纵览 20250224 本期投资提示： 相关研究 证券分析师 彭文玉 A0230517080001 pengwy@swsresearch.com 胡巧云 A0230520080005 huqy@swsresearch.com 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 申 购 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 证 研究支持 朱敏 A0230524050004 zhumin@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱敏 (8621)23297818× zhumin@swsresearch.com 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ AHP 得分——剔除流动性溢价因素后，永杰新材 1.72 分，位于总分的 23.1%分位。永杰 新材于 2025 年 2 月 20 日招股，将在主板上市。剔除流动性溢价因素后，我们测算永杰新 材 AHP 得分为 1.72 分，位于非科创体系 AHP 模型总分 2 ...