Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) with a target price of HKD 515.00, indicating a potential upside of 17% from the current price of HKD 441.2 [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that HKEX achieved record half-year results in H1 2025, with total revenue of HKD 14.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 8.5 billion, up 39% year-on-year [1][5]. - The report emphasizes strong trading activity in both the cash and derivatives markets, contributing to the revenue and profit growth [5][8]. - The report projects continued growth in net profit for HKEX, estimating HKD 16.6 billion, HKD 18.1 billion, and HKD 19.5 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 9%, and 7% respectively [8]. Financial Performance Summary - H1 2025 financial highlights include: - Total revenue: HKD 14.1 billion, +33% YoY - Net profit: HKD 8.5 billion, +39% YoY - EBITDA: HKD 10.9 billion, +43% YoY, with an EBITDA margin of 79%, up 6 percentage points YoY [1][5][8]. - Revenue breakdown by business segment for H1 2025: - Cash market: HKD 6.7 billion, +62% YoY - Equity securities and financial derivatives: HKD 3.55 billion, +15% YoY - Other segments also showed positive growth [5][8]. Market Activity - The report notes that the cash market saw record trading volumes, with average daily turnover (ADT) reaching HKD 222.8 billion, a 122% increase YoY [5][6]. - The primary market experienced a strong momentum with 44 new listings in H1 2025, raising HKD 109.4 billion, which is more than eight times the amount raised in H1 2024 [8][34]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides projected financial metrics for HKEX: - Revenue growth forecast for 2025: HKD 27.8 billion, +24% YoY - Projected PE ratio for 2025: 22.23 [7][33]. - The report indicates a strong return on equity (ROE) of 25.1% and a book value per share of HKD 41.0 [2][7].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) is expected to experience significant profit growth and an upward shift in valuation due to a thriving primary and secondary market, supported by favorable policies, leading to a potential "Davis Double Play" [1][3]. Group 1: Market Position and Strategy - HKEX is a globally leading exchange group, uniquely positioned as the only exchange platform in Hong Kong, encompassing the Stock Exchange, Futures Exchange, and London Metal Exchange, which creates a comprehensive service ecosystem [1]. - The strategic direction of HKEX focuses on connecting China with the world, capital with opportunities, and the present with the future, leveraging its unique regional and regulatory resources to enhance innovation and international expansion [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Business Model - The company's light capital structure ensures high profit margins and return on equity (ROE), with trading fees and system usage fees contributing significantly to revenue, accounting for 53% of total income [2]. - HKEX maintains a net profit margin and EBITDA margin around 58% and 75%, respectively, while the median ROE over the past decade has reached 23% [2]. Group 3: Valuation Drivers - The dual resonance of assets and funds is driving the valuation of HKEX upward, with improved asset structure and favorable policies supporting the listing of A-share companies in Hong Kong [3]. - The influx of southbound funds, driven by the valuation discount of Hong Kong stocks and the anticipated near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to sustain market liquidity and activity [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The projected net profit for HKEX from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at HKD 153 billion, 166 billion, and 178 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +17%, +9%, and +7% respectively [3]. - Given the regional monopoly advantages and high shareholder return attributes, HKEX is assigned a PE valuation of 50 times, with a target price of HKD 515, indicating a potential upside of 23% from current levels [3].