请务必阅读最后重要事项 ➢ ⚫ ⚫ ⚫ | 1 | | --- | | 1 | | 4 | | 6 | | 8 | | 9 | | 9 | | 9 | | 11 | | 12 | | 13 | | 14 | | 15 | | 15 | | 16 | | 16 | | 17 | | 18 | | 18 | | 19 | | 20 | | 21 | | 22 | | 22 | | 23 | | 24 | | 25 | | 图1：橡胶指数价格行情回顾 2 | | --- | | 图2：橡胶历史大周期行情回顾 2 | | 图3：大类资产价格分位图 3 | | 图4：收盘价:天然橡胶:上海主力合约 3 | | 图5：收盘价:20号胶:上海主力合约 4 | | 图6：上海期货交易所:成交量:当月值 5 | | 图7：持仓量:橡胶指数 5 | | 图8：成交量:橡胶指数 5 | | 图9：持仓量:20号胶指数 5 | | 图10：成交量:20号胶指数 5 | | 图11：仓单数量:天然橡胶:总计 6 | | 图12：仓单数量:20号胶:总计 6 | | 图13：橡胶主力：虚实盘比 6 | | 图14：20号胶主力：虚实盘比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market fluctuated within a range due to geopolitical conflicts. The raw material prices remained firm due to the tense situation between Thailand and Cambodia, while downstream procurement was cautious, and port inventories continued to accumulate. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range in the short term as there is no obvious upward or downward driving force [108]. - Suggested trading strategies include range - bound operations for RU05 within the range of 14,800 - 15,800 yuan/ton, a long - short spread strategy for the 1 - 5 contract, and continued observation for cross - variety trading [109]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In November 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, a new monthly high. From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were close to 1.5 billion units, with exports of 2.315 million units, doubling year - on - year. The full - year automobile exports are expected to reach 7 million units [5]. - In October 2025, Malaysia's natural rubber production decreased by 22.7% year - on - year, while exports increased by 9.9% year - on - year. The domestic consumption increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with latex gloves being the main consumer [6]. - The European electric vehicle market has improved, and European automakers are adjusting their powertrain strategies, using hybrid vehicles as a transition technology while continuing to invest in electric vehicles [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and international rubber markets rebounded, with NR having the largest increase. On December 12, 2025, the closing prices of RU2605, NR2605, Singapore TSR20:2605, and Tokyo RSS3:2605 were 15,230 yuan/ton, 12,345 yuan/ton, 173 cents/kg, and 330.8 yen/kg respectively, with week - on - week increases of 1.10%, 2.45%, 1.23%, and 1.66% [10][12]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Weather in Thailand: The southern part of Thailand has entered the rainy season with more rainfall than last year, while the rainy season in the northeastern part has ended with lower - than - average temperatures [40]. - Weather in China: The rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan have basically ended [42]. - Raw material prices: After the domestic production areas digested the sentiment of production cuts due to the end of the tapping season, the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia affected tapping and factory production, causing raw material prices to rise after a decline [44]. - Raw material spreads: The water - cup spread in Thailand has decreased, while the spread between Hainan's glue going into the concentrated latex factory and the whole - milk factory has increased [48]. - Upstream processing profits: The rubber processing profits in Thailand have generally decreased [51]. - Export data: In October 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly driven by standard rubber and mixed rubber. Exports to China also increased significantly. Indonesia's exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to a significant reduction in standard rubber exports. Vietnam's exports increased month - on - month, with latex having a relatively large increase. In November 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports decreased month - on - month, and exports to China also decreased significantly [62][65][68][74][75]. - Import data: In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) were 5.108 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89%. Imports of Thai standard rubber continued to decline, while imports of Indonesian standard and mixed rubber were at a high level year - on - year, and imports of Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [79]. 3.3.2 Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: During the week, the production of maintenance enterprises gradually resumed, driving up capacity utilization to some extent. However, the overall shipment pace was slow, and most enterprises were in a state of flexible production control. Tire inventories started to accumulate again [84]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In October 2025, semi - steel tire exports continued to decline significantly month - on - month, while full - steel tire exports decreased slightly. Heavy - truck sales increased month - on - month but at a slower pace. In November 2025, passenger car sales continued to grow, but the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates continued to decline [89]. - Road transport turnover: In October 2025, the freight turnover of road transport decreased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover improved month - on - month [90]. 3.3.3 Inventory - Spot inventory: China's natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate, with both dark and light rubber inventories increasing. The inventory accumulation in Qingdao Port has weakened, and the general trade shipment volume has "recovered" compared to the previous period [97]. - Futures inventory: As of December 12, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 57,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25.17%. The 20 - number rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 59,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.87% [105].

Core Insights - The export of China's rubber hose and belt products is steadily increasing, while imports are gradually decreasing, indicating a strong domestic market expansion and improved domestic substitution capabilities [1][2] - From 2020 to the first half of 2025, the export scale of China's rubber hose and belt industry is significantly larger than that of imports, with the total export value of conveyor belts, hoses, and drive belts being approximately 3.5 times the import value and the total export volume about 15.4 times the import volume [1] Industry Performance - The conveyor belt sector shows strong self-sufficiency and significant export potential, although it faces anti-dumping investigations; the hose industry has been growing steadily, leading in export value among the three product categories, but still relies heavily on imports for high-value-added products; the drive belt sector has seen an increase in added value, with narrowing price gaps compared to foreign products, yet it remains less competitive internationally [1][2] Pricing Dynamics - Despite the growth in export scale, the industry continues to face a "low-price export, high-price import" situation, with the average export prices of all three product categories being lower than their import prices, indicating that exports are primarily mid-to-low-end products while high-value-added products are still imported [2] Strategic Recommendations - The industry should abandon low-quality, low-price competition and focus on mid-to-high-end markets to enhance core competitiveness and achieve qualitative and quantitative growth [2] - Increased R&D investment is necessary to align with trends in green low-carbon and new productivity, aiming for differentiated development and customized services [2] - The industry must be vigilant against global economic uncertainties and trade barriers, leveraging policy benefits such as "timely interest rate cuts" and "support for technological innovation" [2] - While maintaining traditional partnerships, the industry should capitalize on opportunities from initiatives like the "Belt and Road" and RCEP agreements to explore emerging markets and uncover export potential [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced strong fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing a 10-year high, while the Hong Kong market showed weakness, particularly in technology stocks [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.13% at 3771.1 points, while the Shenzhen Component fell 0.06% to 11919.76 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped 0.47% to 2595.47 points [2]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 246.08 billion yuan, a slight increase from the previous day [2]. - Over 3000 stocks in the market were in the red, with the semiconductor sector declining significantly, including Dongxin Co., which fell over 12% [2][4]. Sector Highlights - The domestic software sector saw a strong rally, with stocks like Beixin Source hitting a 20% limit up, and ZTE Corporation also performing well with a rise of over 6% [4][6]. - Resource stocks, including oil, electricity, coal, and gas, experienced a collective surge, with companies like Zhun Oil and Anyuan Coal reaching their daily limit [2]. AI Industry Trends - The AI industry chain stocks faced a downturn, with companies like Huaguang New Material and Tongfei Co. dropping over 10%, and several others hitting the daily limit down [9][10]. - The rapid growth in AI applications is highlighted by a significant increase in daily Token consumption, which rose from 1 trillion to over 30 trillion in just 1.5 years, indicating a booming AI application scale [6][7]. Notable Stock Movements - Jishi Media experienced a dramatic trading session, initially hitting a limit down before rebounding to close at a limit up, marking its eighth limit up in 14 trading days [13][12]. - Jin Tian Co. and Tenglong Co. issued warnings about their stock performance, indicating that their recent price increases may not reflect fundamental changes in their business [11][15].

Group 1 - The liquid cooling server concept experienced a decline on the 21st, with companies such as Tenglong Co. and Jintian Co. hitting the daily limit down, while Feilong Co. dropped over 9% [1] - Jintian Co. had previously achieved 5 limit-up days in the last 6 trading days, and the company indicated that its stock's short-term increase exceeded the industry and Shanghai Composite Index, suggesting an overheated market sentiment [1] - Jintian Co. primarily engages in non-ferrous metal processing, with main products including copper products and rare earth permanent magnet materials, which are used in various sectors such as power, electronics, construction materials, air conditioning, and new energy vehicles [1] Group 2 - Tenglong Co. also noted that its stock had increased by 67.34% over the past 6 trading days, compared to a 6.76% increase in the automotive parts industry index, indicating a significant short-term rise [1] - The trading volume for Tenglong Co. reached a cumulative turnover rate of 119.35% over 6 days, with an average daily turnover rate of 19.89%, which is significantly higher than usual [1] - The company confirmed that there had been no major changes in its fundamentals during this period [1] Group 3 - The company has noted recent market interest in data center/server liquid cooling and energy storage liquid cooling, and currently has small batch products supplied to domestic customers for these applications [2] - In the first half of 2025, the sales revenue from electronic water pump products for server liquid cooling is approximately 800,000 yuan, and revenue from hoses for energy storage liquid cooling is about 970,000 yuan, which is a small proportion of the company's total revenue [2] - The business development in these areas presents significant uncertainty, and the company advises investors to be cautious and make rational decisions [2]

Summary of Daya Shares Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Daya Shares - **Industry**: Tire skeleton materials Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Daya Shares achieved a turnaround to profitability, with sales of various steel wires reaching 420,300 tons, an increase of 5.26% year-on-year [3] - Sales revenue decreased by 4.19% to 2.521 billion yuan [2][3] - Export steel wire accounted for 27% of total sales, with 94,200 tons exported [3] Market Position and Strategy - Daya Shares holds a global market share of approximately 20% and nearly 40% in the domestic market, indicating significant scale advantages [2][7] - The company is focused on optimizing product structure and production processes to enhance operational efficiency and maintain market leadership [2][6] Industry Challenges - The tire skeleton materials industry is facing severe internal competition, leading to aggressive price competition [6] - High capital investment and depreciation costs contribute to slow industry clearing, with many companies maintaining positive cash flow despite low profits [8][9] Product Development and Innovation - Daya Shares is investing in high-end product development, including UT FT products, and has made progress in customer certification to increase market share [2][10] - The company is collaborating with universities to explore new functionalities and strengthen its competitive edge [4][16] Green Transformation Initiatives - Significant efforts have been made towards green transformation, including obtaining EU certifications, which are expected to boost sales in the EU market starting in 2026 [4][14] - Projects such as a 20 MW wind power and biomass cogeneration are anticipated to reduce production costs and enhance profitability [4][15] Financial Health and Debt Management - The current debt-to-asset ratio is approximately 74%, primarily due to investments in wind and biomass projects [4][17] - The company has secured 928 million yuan in financing with a 15-year term and aims to optimize its financial structure to maintain a stable debt ratio [17] Future Outlook - Daya Shares is optimistic about future growth, particularly in technology control, product quality, and R&D capabilities [5] - The establishment of a production base in Morocco is expected to lower export tax rates and improve profitability, with construction anticipated to begin in early 2026 [10][12] Cost Management - Despite higher labor costs overseas, overall production costs are expected to remain controllable due to optimized production processes [12][13] - The company plans to continue reducing excess capacity to improve market competitiveness and enhance gross margins [7] Impact of Raw Material Prices - Rising steel prices have a limited impact on profitability, as the company can quickly adjust sales prices in response to raw material cost increases [21] Robotics Business Development - In the first half of 2025, Daya Shares received small batch orders for robots, with plans for further engagement with potential clients [20] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting Daya Shares' performance, strategies, challenges, and future outlook in the tire skeleton materials industry.