曾因押注美国次贷危机而名声大噪的《大空头》原型人物、投资人迈克尔·伯里(Michael Burry)，近日再度掀起波澜，将火力对准了美股最 炙手可热的人工智能(AI)赛道。 他指责美国几家最大的科技公司通过激进的会计操作，在AI热潮中"虚增"盈利。 与此同时，华尔街大型投 行高管及知名做空者频频发出警告，认为美股可能出现回调。 伯里当地时间周一在社交平台X上发文称，那些所谓的"超大规模算力服务商"，正在通过延长芯片折旧年限、压低折旧费用，人为放大AI热 潮带来的账面利润。 周一，英伟达股价在上周下跌7%后反弹近6%；Palantir则在上周大跌11%后回升约9%。不过，英伟达和Palantir周二股价再度走低。 伯里最后还表示，他将在11月25日公布更多细节，并让关注者拭目以待。 与此同时，日本软银集团作出了一项令人意外的举动：清仓了"AI芯片霸主"英伟达股份，套现58亿美元，加剧了外界对AI热潮或已触顶的担 忧。 他写道： "通过延长资产的使用年限来低估折旧支出，从而虚增利润，是现代财报中最常见的把戏之一。在以英伟达芯片和服务器为代表、 产品周期仅两三年的情况下，大规模增加资本开支并不应成为企业延长计算设备 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends and forecasts in the memory market, particularly focusing on NAND and DRAM, highlighting the demand dynamics and inventory levels of major players like Samsung and SK Hynix [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The article references UBS research, indicating that Samsung and SK Hynix expect a modest increase in DRAM shipments for Q2 2025, with Samsung projecting less than 10% growth and SK Hynix over 20% for NAND [2]. - UBS has adjusted its NAND price forecast for Q2 from +5% to +3%, citing resistance from customers against rising SSD prices [2]. Demand and Inventory - As of Q1 2025, DRAM inventory levels are decreasing faster than expected, with smartphone customers holding about 10 weeks of inventory and PC manufacturers around 12 weeks [3]. - For NAND, smartphone manufacturers have approximately 9 weeks of inventory, while SSD inventory stands at 11 weeks [3]. HBM Demand Forecast - UBS has revised its HBM demand forecast for 2025 down from 203 billion Gb to 189 billion Gb, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 105%, and for 2026 from 303 billion Gb to 291 billion Gb, with a growth rate of 54% [3][24]. - The demand for ASICs is expected to outpace GPUs, with ASICs accounting for 54% of total HBM demand by 2026, up from 41% in 2025 [3]. Supplier Insights - Samsung's HBM bit shipments are projected to increase from 5.1 billion Gb in 2024 to 11.2 billion Gb by 2026, representing 8.1% of its total DRAM bits [9]. - SK Hynix is expected to grow its HBM shipments from 6.8 billion Gb in 2024 to 17.4 billion Gb by 2026, which will account for 17% of its total DRAM bits [9]. Production Capacity - Longxin's wafer production capacity is expected to reach 170,000 wafers per month by the end of 2024, with plans to increase to 230,000 wafers per month by the end of 2025 [24]. - Yangtze Memory Technologies Company (YMTC) is also expanding its production capacity, aiming for 160-layer technology despite facing challenges due to U.S. restrictions [25]. Competitive Landscape - The article highlights the competitive dynamics among major players, with Samsung and SK Hynix leading in HBM production, while Micron is also increasing its HBM output significantly [9][24]. - The market share of DRAM suppliers is detailed, showing Samsung at 39.5%, SK Hynix at 28.9%, and Micron at 22.9% for 2025 [27]. Future Outlook - The article concludes with a cautious outlook for the memory market, emphasizing the uncertainty due to tariff issues and potential specification downgrades in NAND demand [2][24].