摩根大通近日发布研报，聚焦将于下周公布的阿斯麦(ASML.US)2025年第三季度(3Q25)业绩，称业绩发 布后的机遇大于风险，市场焦点大概率将在业绩发布后转向2027财年(FY27)，并重申对阿斯麦"增持"评 级及"首选标的"地位。 01 核心观点与业绩风险提示 自阿斯麦在上次业绩会议中表示"该行仍在为2026年的增长做准备，但目前无法确认增长情况"以来，其 股价已下跌43%。摩根大通认为，此次业绩面临的两大风险的是：2025年第三季度订单量不及预期，或 2026财年(FY26)业绩指引低于市场预期。 由于本季度初阿斯麦表现出的谨慎态度，该行对2025年第三季度订单的预期低于市场共识。不过，随着 关税阻力缓解，该行认为台积电在本季度后半段的订单量可能表现强劲，这意味着阿斯麦实际订单情况 或好于该行预期，但能否达到市场对订单量的共识预期，仍取决于三星的行动。 02 第三季度业绩预测 阿斯麦将于10月15日发布第三季度业绩，摩根大通对核心财务指标的预测如下： 营收：预计达75.68亿欧元，意味着环比下降1.6%、同比增长1.3%。该数值较市场共识预期低1.5%，但 符合阿斯麦自身给出的74亿-79亿欧元指引区 ...

（原标题：小摩唱多阿斯麦(ASML.US)：Q3绩后市场焦点将转向2027财年 建议"逢低买入"） 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通近日发布研报，聚焦将于下周公布的阿斯麦(ASML.US)2025年第三季度 (3Q25)业绩，称业绩发布后的机遇大于风险，市场焦点大概率将在业绩发布后转向2027财年(FY27)，并 重申对阿斯麦"增持"评级及"首选标的"地位。 核心观点与业绩风险提示 该行写道，自阿斯麦在上次业绩会议中表示"该行仍在为2026年的增长做准备，但目前无法确认增长情 况"以来，其股价已下跌43%。因此，此次业绩面临的两大风险的是：2025年第三季度订单量不及预 期，或2026财年(FY26)业绩指引低于市场预期。 由于本季度初阿斯麦表现出的谨慎态度，该行对2025年第三季度订单的预期低于市场共识。不过，随着 关税阻力缓解，该行认为台积电在本季度后半段的订单量可能表现强劲，这意味着阿斯麦实际订单情况 或好于该行预期，但能否达到市场对订单量的共识预期，仍取决于三星的行动。 三星目前一直在推迟为平泽P4工厂(PyeongtackP4fab)采购设备的订单。该公司手中仍有此前推迟的积压 订单，因此无需下达新订单 ...

格隆汇9月17日｜江波龙在电话会议上表示，根据CFM闪存市场预测，随着AI服务器出货规模持续扩 大，下半年服务器NAND市场备货需求升温，手机新品发布将催生新一轮换机需求，叠加存储晶圆原厂 兼顾投入产出比的供应策略影响，四季度存储市场价格将迎来全面上涨。此外截止至7月底，公司主控 芯片全系列产品累计实现超过8000万颗的批量部署，并且部署规模仍在保持快速增长。搭载自研主控的 UFS4.1产品正处于多家Tier1厂商的导入验证阶段，全年来看，自研主控芯片部署规模将实现放量增 长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends and forecasts in the memory market, particularly focusing on NAND and DRAM, highlighting the demand dynamics and inventory levels of major players like Samsung and SK Hynix [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The article references UBS research, indicating that Samsung and SK Hynix expect a modest increase in DRAM shipments for Q2 2025, with Samsung projecting less than 10% growth and SK Hynix over 20% for NAND [2]. - UBS has adjusted its NAND price forecast for Q2 from +5% to +3%, citing resistance from customers against rising SSD prices [2]. Demand and Inventory - As of Q1 2025, DRAM inventory levels are decreasing faster than expected, with smartphone customers holding about 10 weeks of inventory and PC manufacturers around 12 weeks [3]. - For NAND, smartphone manufacturers have approximately 9 weeks of inventory, while SSD inventory stands at 11 weeks [3]. HBM Demand Forecast - UBS has revised its HBM demand forecast for 2025 down from 203 billion Gb to 189 billion Gb, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 105%, and for 2026 from 303 billion Gb to 291 billion Gb, with a growth rate of 54% [3][24]. - The demand for ASICs is expected to outpace GPUs, with ASICs accounting for 54% of total HBM demand by 2026, up from 41% in 2025 [3]. Supplier Insights - Samsung's HBM bit shipments are projected to increase from 5.1 billion Gb in 2024 to 11.2 billion Gb by 2026, representing 8.1% of its total DRAM bits [9]. - SK Hynix is expected to grow its HBM shipments from 6.8 billion Gb in 2024 to 17.4 billion Gb by 2026, which will account for 17% of its total DRAM bits [9]. Production Capacity - Longxin's wafer production capacity is expected to reach 170,000 wafers per month by the end of 2024, with plans to increase to 230,000 wafers per month by the end of 2025 [24]. - Yangtze Memory Technologies Company (YMTC) is also expanding its production capacity, aiming for 160-layer technology despite facing challenges due to U.S. restrictions [25]. Competitive Landscape - The article highlights the competitive dynamics among major players, with Samsung and SK Hynix leading in HBM production, while Micron is also increasing its HBM output significantly [9][24]. - The market share of DRAM suppliers is detailed, showing Samsung at 39.5%, SK Hynix at 28.9%, and Micron at 22.9% for 2025 [27]. Future Outlook - The article concludes with a cautious outlook for the memory market, emphasizing the uncertainty due to tariff issues and potential specification downgrades in NAND demand [2][24].

Core Insights - The white paper highlights significant transformations in the global memory market driven by advancements in AI technology, increasing server storage demands, and upgrades in consumer storage products [19] Group 1: Global Memory Market Changes and Technological Developments - High-density 3D NAND Flash storage is continuously improving, with advancements in read/write performance, power consumption, durability, and cost [2][36] - The complexity of etching and deposition processes increases with the number of layers in NAND Flash, leading to challenges that manufacturers are overcoming through various techniques [2][41] - Major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix are focusing on mass production plans for NAND Flash with over 300 layers, utilizing Wafer-to-Wafer bonding technology [2][41] Group 2: Server NAND and DRAM Application Growth - The expansion of global data center infrastructure and increased investment in AI infrastructure are driving the growth of server storage demand [3][9] - In 2024, the application shares of NAND in servers, mobile devices, and PCs are projected to be 30%, 31%, and 14% respectively, with server NAND application share expected to rise to 30% by 2025 [4][43] - For DRAM applications, the shares in servers, mobile devices, and PCs are expected to be 34%, 32%, and 14% in 2024, with server DRAM application share anticipated to grow to 36% by 2025 [5][47] Group 3: Storage Technology and Application Outlook - QLC NAND is improving in performance and reliability, making it suitable for read-intensive applications, particularly in computing centers [6][51] - The rise of AI PCs is driving the growth of PCIe 4.0/5.0 SSD applications in the consumer market, with an expected penetration rate of 35% by 2025 [7][58] - Manufacturers are actively expanding into overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa, where the SSD market holds significant potential [8][71] Group 4: AI Server Storage Demand - There is a surge in capital expenditure for AI infrastructure, significantly increasing the demand for AI servers [9][72] - The global HBM market is projected to reach $16 billion in 2024 and grow to $30 billion by 2025, accounting for 28% of the global DRAM market [11] - The demand for enterprise-grade PCIe 5.0 SSDs is rapidly increasing, with an expected shipment share of 30% by 2025 [12][50] Group 5: Consumer Storage Product Applications and Developments - Global PC shipments are expected to see a slight increase of 3% in 2025, with AI PC penetration reaching 35% [13][58] - The global smartphone shipment volume is projected to reach approximately 1.184 billion units in 2024, with NAND capacity expected to exceed 220GB by 2025 [15][16] - AI glasses are emerging as a significant consumer electronics product, with shipments expected to rise from 2 million units in 2024 to 10 million units in 2025 [17][18]