高盛周末宏观电话会：宏观股市观点、AI 采用信号、油价 地缘政治溢价、新兴市场韧性及全球其他地区跑赢大市 20260228 摘要 特朗普政府关税政策调整频繁，虽声称统一加征 15%关税，但实际执行 可能采取差异化安排，对不同国家和产品实施不同税率，实际关税税率 影响差异仅约 0.1 个百分点。 关税退款问题进展较快，预计退款金额约 1,800 亿美元，但发放速度和 执行周期仍存在不确定性。新关税面临法律挑战，但因 122 条款关税期 限限制，司法程序可能无法在期限内完成裁决。 中期选举中，众议院民主党优势明显，但参议院竞争激烈，民主党面临 艰巨挑战。关注得克萨斯州初选结果，可能影响参议院席位归属。 消费者端 AI 采用率快速提升，已广泛融入日常生活，使用频率大幅提高， 推动算力需求爆炸式增长。企业端 AI 推进缓慢，规模化落地面临数据和 系统层面的障碍。 英伟达财报超预期，但股价未明显上涨，投资者关注 2027 年超大规模 资本开支的能见度、非传统客户的持续支出路径以及技术领先性再确认。 Q&A 近期关税问题重回头条，叠加国情咨文演讲，华盛顿当前最关注的议题是什么， 需要重点关注哪些方面？ 关税问题不确定性仍 ...

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the AI application sector and the semiconductor industry, particularly focusing on companies like Nvidia and domestic Chinese firms. Core Points and Arguments - **AI Application Performance**: The performance of AI applications in the A-share market is under scrutiny, as many AI revenues have not yet materialized. The focus is on Hong Kong stocks, particularly Meitu and Kingdee, which have seen significant declines due to poor earnings reports from US AI software companies [1] - **Impact of Global Events on Computing Power**: Recent global events, such as a 90-day suspension of tariffs and negotiations involving Nvidia's Blackwell chips, have positively impacted overseas computing power. However, there was a sudden downturn in 5G stocks, attributed to government advisories against using WH20 chips for certain applications [2][3] - **Concerns Over Chip Security**: There are significant concerns regarding the security of chips being transferred to unknown countries, especially in the context of potential US-China trade negotiations. The risks associated with remote shutdowns of computing power servers are highlighted, particularly for applications like autonomous driving [4] - **Market Size and Share**: The global market size for computing power chips is estimated at approximately $140 billion, with AMD and Nvidia accounting for two-thirds of this market. The discussion emphasizes the increasing likelihood of domestic companies embracing local AI chips [5] - **AI Application Commercialization**: By 2025, overseas AI applications are expected to show signs of commercial viability, contrasting with the A-share market, where valuations do not seem to correlate with earnings. This indicates that A-share pricing may be based more on perceived probabilities rather than actual performance [6] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Investor Sentiment**: The current investor sentiment appears to be reactive, with funds shifting focus due to the underperformance of AI applications, leading to a need for reallocation within the sector [3] - **Long-term Implications**: The discussions suggest that the long-term implications of these trends could lead to a significant shift in how AI applications are valued in the A-share market compared to their US counterparts [6]