行 业 及 产 业 证券分析师 吕昌 A0230516010001 lvchang@swsresearch.com 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 联系人 王子昂 A0230525040003 wangza@swsresearch.com 高端酒批价回落 关注需求承接 食品饮料 2025 年 12 月 06 日 相关研究 《茅台股东会传递务实信号 月度金股推荐 泸州老窖 ——食品饮料行业周报 20251124-20251128》 2025/11/30 《市场大幅调整 板块相对跑赢 ——食品 饮料行业周报 20251117-20251121》 2025/11/22 《黎明前夕，曙光将至——2026 年食品 ⚫ 风险提示：食品安全问题，经济下行影响白酒及大众品需求。 证 券 研 究 报 看好 ——食品饮料行业周报 20251201-20251205 本期投资提示： 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(res ...

当茅台散瓶批发价跌破1600元心理关口时，整个白酒行业听到了冰川断裂的脆响。北京某烟酒店老板老李盯着库存表苦笑："现在卖一瓶亏200元，不卖亏得 更多。"这绝非个案——2025年行业数据显示，全国超3000家白酒专营店关停，存活下来的店铺正上演着教科书级的生存进化。 区域深耕：做透三公里生意经 在山东潍坊，陈老板的店铺活得比省会同行滋润——他专攻婚宴市场，掌握着当地80%婚庆公司的用酒渠道。2025年数据显示，区域深耕型经销商库存周转 速度比广撒网式经营快2.3倍。广州荔湾区的黄总更绝，他把茅台陈列柜变成"名酒博物馆"，每周举办品鉴会培养街坊消费习惯，复购率做到行业均值4倍。 轻资产：从"囤货赌涨"到"零库存快周转" 曾经动辄囤货上千万的经销商们，如今把库房面积压缩了八成。河南酒商周姐的账本揭示残酷现实：茅台1935库存周转天数高达128天，意味着每瓶酒要占 用资金四个月。而转型成功的长沙经销商王总，采用"T+7"模式：客户下单后七天内从厂家直发，库存周转压缩到行业平均水平的1/5。这种"卖多少进多 少"的轻资产策略，让他的现金流比同行健康三倍。 多元化：便利店思维拯救白酒铺 走进北京朝阳区某存活下来的烟酒店 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, indicating that it has entered a strategic allocation period for quality companies [4][8]. Core Views - Despite the need for patience regarding fundamental improvements, the report highlights significant revenue declines for major liquor companies, with a focus on finding a balance between volume and price [4][8]. - The report emphasizes that long-term investors can start pricing quality companies as the market approaches a predictable bottom [4][8]. - Key recommendations include premium liquor brands such as Luzhou Laojiao, Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, along with consumer staples like Yili, Qingdao Beer, and Anjuke Food [4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Perspective on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.56% last week, with liquor down 0.84%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.64 percentage points [7]. - The top gainers included Anji Food (+13.87%), Huifa Food (+13.07%), and Babi Food (+11.32%) [7]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report notes that the food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 1.20 percentage points from November 3 to November 7, 2025 [45]. - Sub-sectors such as food processing and leisure foods outperformed the index, while liquor categories, including white liquor and other alcoholic beverages, lagged behind [45]. 3. Industry Events and Updates - Kweichow Moutai announced a stock buyback plan of between 1.5 billion and 3 billion yuan and a cash dividend distribution of 30 billion yuan [2][9]. - The report indicates that Moutai's revenue growth slowed to 0.35% year-on-year in Q3 2025, while Wuliangye's revenue fell by 53% [9]. 4. Valuation Table - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE is reported at 20.22x, with a premium rate of 23%, while the liquor sector's dynamic PE stands at 18.93x, with a premium rate of 15% [33].