作为石太线、北同蒲线等多条干线的货运编组枢纽，中国铁路太原局集团有限公司太原北站成立煤炭保 供专班，借助智能调度系统使运煤列车在站停留时间压缩超30%，日均办理车数提升25%。2025年，该 站累计发运货物1764万吨，其中煤炭运量达975万吨。本报通讯员 姜涛 摄 （来源：工人日报） ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 2026Q1 煤炭供应是否会出现"开门红"？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 过去 5 年，Q1 原煤产量往往同比提升。2026Q1 原煤产量是否会再次出现"开门红"？我们认 为，在"反内卷"政策背景下，供给的"季节性"有望让位于政策的"约束性"，供给的弹性或 被压缩，2026Q1 原煤产量同比增量有望较为有限。考虑到煤价上有顶下有底，因此红利和攻 守兼备标的胜率较高。若需求较好、煤价改善超预期，则可关注目前低估值、筹码少、盈利分 位较低的弹性进攻标的。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 煤炭与消费用燃料 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Ti ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has experienced a decline, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.72 percentage points, with a weekly drop of 3.8% [2] - Recent snowfall in northern coal-producing areas has increased heating demand and affected coal transportation, leading to a short-term decrease in supply and an increase in demand [6][31] - Despite an increase in social inventory, it remains lower than last year, and there is a need to ensure supply while managing production safely [31] Summary by Sections Supply Side - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.51 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 7.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 4% [2] - The average daily coal production was 7.59 million tons, up 8.9% week-on-week but down 1.4% year-on-year [2] - Total coal inventory (including port storage) reached 25.2 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.9% [2][8] Demand Side - Power and chemical industries have seen cumulative coal consumption changes, with power consumption down 2.8% year-on-year and chemical consumption up 13.9% [2] - Iron and steel production has increased by 1.2% year-on-year [2] Price Side - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 703 CNY/ton, down 0.42% week-on-week [3] - The price of coking coal at major ports has seen a decline, with the main coking coal price at 1,650 CNY/ton remaining stable [4] - Chemical product prices have generally decreased, with methanol at 2,133.41 CNY/ton, down 5.91 CNY/ton week-on-week [5] Sentiment Side - The overall sentiment in the coal market remains cautious due to weak downstream demand, despite the resilience in coal prices due to increased heating needs from snowfall [6][31] - The report suggests prioritizing investments in high-dividend thermal coal companies and focusing on companies with improving profit margins in the coking sector [31]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has seen a rise, but it underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 0.77% against the CSI 300's 1.28% [2] - Inventory levels are increasing due to supply policies, while coal prices are declining rapidly. Despite increased production, supply constraints are expected to persist, leading to potential coal shortages in certain regions [6][32] - The report anticipates a rise in the coal price center in the fourth quarter, with current coal asset dividends being reasonable [6][32] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - As of December 5, 2025, the coal sector's performance was 0.77% up, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 0.51 percentage points. A total of 21 stocks rose, while 14 fell, with New Dazhou A showing the highest increase of 14.98% [2] Key Data on Coal Sales and Inventory - The average daily coal sales for monitored enterprises from November 28 to December 4, 2025, were 6.98 million tons, down 5% week-on-week and down 9.5% year-on-year. Total coal inventory was 24.67 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% week-on-week and 20.5% year-on-year [2][30] Price Trends in Coal Types - As of December 5, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) was 706 CNY/ton, up 1.15% week-on-week, while the price of imported thermal coal fell by 4.69% to 874 CNY/ton. Prices for coking coal and anthracite also showed declines [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in high-dividend thermal coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others. For coking coal, companies like Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal are recommended. Additionally, companies with improved profits in the coking sector are highlighted [6][32]

（来源：银河投研黑色与有色） | 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 | | --- | | 第二章 核心逻辑分析 | | 第三章 周度数据追踪 | 焦煤:下周现货价格跌幅有望放缓 4 福河期货 投资逻辑与交易策略 | 银河期货 逻辑分析 ■ 现货面，市场心态仍偏弱，本周焦煤价格普遍下跌，不过有个别煤种探涨；山西个别煤矿因年度生产任务即将完成自行减 产，预计到中下旬此种情况会增多。对于煤炭而言，安全与保供需要平衡，在保供的要求下，会加强煤炭生产组织和运输 保障，但在安全的制约下煤炭产量释放空间有限。后期焦钢企业对于原料还有冬储的需求，叠加年底部分煤矿完成生产任 务会有减产检修，预计盘面继续向下空间有限，可等待盘面出现企稳迹象后逢低轻仓试多远月合约。 交易策略 2 数据来源: Mysteel 银河期货 目录 /银河期货 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 核心逻辑分析 第三章 周度数据追踪 3 ■ 单边:预计盘面继续向下空间有限,可等待盘面出现企稳迹象后逢低轻仓试多远月合约。 ■ 套利: 观望。 ■ 期权: 观望。 ■ (观点仅供参考, 不作为买卖依据) 数据来源: ■ysteel 汾谓能源 银河期货 GALAXY F ...

来源：中国新闻网 编辑：王永乐 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 11月中国国家铁路累计发送煤炭1.84亿吨 同比增长0.3% 中新社北京12月5日电 (记者 刘文文)中国国家铁路集团有限公司(简称"国铁集团")5日消息，11月份，国 家铁路累计发送煤炭1.84亿吨，同比增长0.3%，其中电煤1.28亿吨，保持高位，有力保障了各地冬季采 暖、发电用煤需求。 截至11月底，全国铁路直供电厂存煤8823万吨，可耗天数35.8天，同比增加1天，其中存煤15天以下的 电厂实现动态清零。 11月份，部分地区出现寒潮大风降温天气，煤炭消耗量持续增加。国铁集团用好大秦、唐包、瓦日、浩 吉等北煤南运、西煤东运铁路主通道，大力开行万吨重载列车和跨铁路局集团公司电煤直达货物列车。 11月份，大秦线运量3722万吨，同比增长1.8%；唐包线运量1149万吨，同比增长22.7%；瓦日线运量 1340万吨，同比增长0.5%；浩吉线运量1043万吨，同比增长11.1%。 为实现点对点精准保供，铁路部门及时掌握重点地区和主要电厂的煤炭消耗、库存情况，针对到京津 冀、山东、河南等地区部分电厂的煤炭运输需求 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - On November 24, the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures J2601 and JM2601 rebounded after hitting lows. The closing price of coke futures rebounded, while that of coking coal futures continued to decline, reaching new lows since September 15 and September 5 respectively [7]. - With the fourth round of price increase of coke spot confirmed, independent coking enterprises turned profitable after five consecutive weeks of losses. However, the coke production of independent coking enterprises has not stabilized and recently reached a new low since late March. Although steel mills and ports continued to reduce coke inventories, the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises increased significantly, recovering the decline since mid - September [12]. - Since October 25, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly. As of November 22, the 10 - day moving average data increased by 50,000 tons or 44.2% compared to October 25. Recently, the coking coal inventory of 230 independent coking plants has declined after reaching a high, and the coking coal inventory at ports has a similar trend [12]. - Currently, the prices of some coking coal spot markets have loosened. Affected by coal supply guarantee policies, the decline of coke and coking coal futures is relatively large. The future downward trend mainly depends on the restocking rhythm of steel mills and power plants. It is expected that the downward space for coke and coking coal futures is limited, and they may enter a volatile market [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On November 24, the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures J2601 and JM2601 fluctuated. The closing price of J2601 was 1,632.5 yuan/ton, up 0.03% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 23,441 lots and a position of 35,231 lots, a decrease of 1,325 lots. The closing price of JM2601 was 1,096.5 yuan/ton, down 1.48% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 750,678 lots and a position of 498,903 lots, an increase of 1,800 lots [5]. - **Spot Market**: On November 24, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1,670 yuan/ton, with no change. The aggregate price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [10]. - **Technical Indicators**: The daily KDJ indicator of the coke J2601 contract formed a golden cross, and the green column of the daily MACD indicator narrowed. The daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal JM2601 contract continued to diverge, with the J and K values rising and the D value falling. The green column of the daily MACD indicator continued to expand slightly [10]. 3.2 Future Outlook - **Policy Aspect**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the heating season from 2025 - 2026, requiring stable energy production and supply, ensuring the performance of medium - and long - term energy contracts, and focusing on meeting the coal demand of northern heating areas, especially in the Northeast [11]. - **Market Aspect**: It is expected that the downward space for coke and coking coal futures is limited, and they may enter a volatile market. Attention should be paid to the implementation of supply guarantee policies and the restocking situation of downstream coal and coke industries [12]. 3.3 Industry News - **Steel Industry**: In mid - November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.71 million tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons or 2.5% from the previous period, showing a continuous downward trend [13]. - **Energy Industry**: From January to October, the cumulative freight volume of national railways reached 3.378 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. As of the end of October, the coal production of Ningxia Coal Industry reached 52.2069 million tons, and the production of coal - to - oil and chemical products reached 10.6252 million tons, with multiple production and operation indicators hitting record highs [13][14]. - **International Market**: In October 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 9.3% month - on - month to 41.737 million tons. The global crude steel production in October was 143 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [14]. 3.4 Data Overview The report presents multiple data charts, including the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, national daily average hot metal production, coke and coking coal inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants, and the basis of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke and Linfen low - sulfur main coking coal [19][20][23].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has seen a decline, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.9 percentage points, with a weekly drop of 5.67% as of November 21, 2025 [2] - Short-term coal consumption is low, leading to an increase in social inventory, but it remains below last year's levels. There is a need to ensure supply while releasing production safely [5][29] - The report anticipates a gradual balance in supply and demand in the fourth quarter, with coal prices expected to rise steadily, targeting 850 CNY/ton [5][29] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises were 7.53 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [2] - The total coal inventory (including port storage) was 24.61 million tons, up 1.3% week-on-week but down 19% year-on-year [2][6] Price Trends - The price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) was stable at 698 CNY/ton, while the imported thermal coal price index was 944 CNY/ton, also unchanged [3] - The price of coking coal at major ports showed a decline, with the main coking coal price at 1,790 CNY/ton, down 2.2% week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in high-dividend thermal coal companies, specifically mentioning China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [5][29] - Focus on coking coal companies such as Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, as well as coking companies with improved profits like Jinneng Technology and others [5][29]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current price of manganese - silicon has limited room to decline further, but it may take some time to reverse the downward trend. It is still recommended to closely monitor the situation of the manganese ore end [2][10][11] Group 3: Summary According to the Content Current Market Situation of Manganese - Silicon - The current manganese - silicon futures price is still oscillating in the range of 5,600 - 6,000 yuan/ton. In the past week, the price has significantly dropped and approached the support level near 5,600 yuan/ton, showing obvious weakness [4] Factors Causing the Price Change - In the November macro - vacuum period, the overseas expectation of a December interest rate cut has significantly weakened, and the market's concern about the "AI narrative" bubble has increased, leading to a significant decline in the prices of US stocks, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals, which in turn has weakened the overall sentiment in the domestic A - share and commodity markets [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission's statement on suspected coal "supply guarantee" during the heating season has led to concerns about the relaxation of coal supply. Coupled with short - term unfalsifiable expectations such as Mongolian coal rushing to meet the quota in the fourth quarter and "poor - quality" coking coal warehouse receipts, funds have significantly increased short positions in coking coal, causing the coking coal price to drop by more than 14% in the past month, suppressing the risk appetite of the entire black metal sector [4] Fundamental Analysis - Although the supply of manganese - silicon has been continuously decreasing recently, the demand remains sluggish, the overall supply - demand structure remains loose, and the inventory of sample factories has continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period in history [8] - The current cost of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia is close to 5,800 yuan/ton according to Steel Union statistics and close to 5,700 yuan/ton according to Ferro - Alloys Online statistics. The current futures price of around 5,600 yuan/ton has already reflected the loose fundamentals [8] Outlook for the Future - It is difficult for the current fundamentals to drive the price down significantly. A significant decline would require a macro "black swan" event or a collapse in coal prices similar to that in the first half of this year [2][10] - There is relatively limited room for the current price of manganese - silicon to decline further, but it may take some time to reverse the downward trend [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in coking coal prices is attributed to weakening spot auction prices, significant delivery pressure, reduced downstream production, and widening basis differentials, leading to increased selling pressure in the market [4][5][6]. Supply Side - Supply remains tight with limited increases expected, as some coal mines in Shanxi and other regions are resuming production, but overall recovery is slow [10][12]. - The import of Mongolian coal has increased, but actual supply to China is limited due to low inventories at Mongolian mines [12] [10]. Demand Side - The demand is under pressure due to the current off-season, with steel mills reducing production in response to losses, leading to a decrease in iron and steel output [5][12]. - Steel mills are showing a cautious purchasing strategy, with a noticeable slowdown in procurement of coking coal due to poor profit margins [12][10]. Inventory Situation - Overall inventory levels are decreasing across the supply chain, with coal mine inventories, port inventories, and coking plant inventories all showing declines [12][10]. - Despite the decline in inventories, the market is experiencing pressure from the current demand weakness [12]. Price Dynamics - Coking coal prices have shown resilience despite recent pressures, with the domestic coking coal spot price index reported at 1404.6 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight decrease [12]. - The basis differential has widened significantly, indicating a disconnect between futures and spot prices, which has contributed to increased selling pressure [6][9]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has shifted towards caution, with recent government signals aimed at stabilizing coal prices leading to reduced bullish sentiment among market participants [13][9]. - The overall outlook for coking coal remains mixed, with potential for price stabilization in the long term, but short-term pressures are expected to persist [9][10].