021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 日期 2025 年 11 月 25 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：11月24日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2601 | 161 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has seen a decline, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.9 percentage points, with a weekly drop of 5.67% as of November 21, 2025 [2] - Short-term coal consumption is low, leading to an increase in social inventory, but it remains below last year's levels. There is a need to ensure supply while releasing production safely [5][29] - The report anticipates a gradual balance in supply and demand in the fourth quarter, with coal prices expected to rise steadily, targeting 850 CNY/ton [5][29] Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - As of November 21, 2025, the average daily coal sales from monitored enterprises were 7.53 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [2] - The total coal inventory (including port storage) was 24.61 million tons, up 1.3% week-on-week but down 19% year-on-year [2][6] Price Trends - The price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) was stable at 698 CNY/ton, while the imported thermal coal price index was 944 CNY/ton, also unchanged [3] - The price of coking coal at major ports showed a decline, with the main coking coal price at 1,790 CNY/ton, down 2.2% week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in high-dividend thermal coal companies, specifically mentioning China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [5][29] - Focus on coking coal companies such as Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, as well as coking companies with improved profits like Jinneng Technology and others [5][29]

专题报告 2025-11-24 锰硅：行情跟踪 陈张滢 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 近一个月来锰硅盘面价格持续维持震荡，近期宏观方面情绪的退坡以及焦煤价格的显著下跌带 动其价格出现明显弱化。我们认为仅是基本面的情况难以再将价格向下继续砸出太大的跌幅， 除非：1）宏观出现风险事件（"黑天鹅"），带动整体市场情绪继续走弱；2）煤炭端价格再现 今年上半年的崩盘。对此，我们保持乐观态度，认为锰硅当前价格水平线继续下砸的空间相对 有限，但想要扭转价格的颓势，可能也需要一定的时间周期。同时，仍建议保持对于锰矿端情 况的密切关注。 黑色金属研究 | 锰硅 锰硅：来自 2024 年 4 月份商品环境的相似感 自上次我们关于锰硅的专题《锰硅：来自 2024 年 4 月份商品氛围的相似感》发布已过去近一 个月，本篇专题我们想要对当前的锰硅行情进行后续的跟踪。 当前锰硅盘面价格仍旧处在 5600 元/吨-6000 元/吨这一区间内震荡运行，近一周价格出现明显 回落且向下临界 5600 元/吨附近支撑，一度要向下破位， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in coking coal prices is attributed to weakening spot auction prices, significant delivery pressure, reduced downstream production, and widening basis differentials, leading to increased selling pressure in the market [4][5][6]. Supply Side - Supply remains tight with limited increases expected, as some coal mines in Shanxi and other regions are resuming production, but overall recovery is slow [10][12]. - The import of Mongolian coal has increased, but actual supply to China is limited due to low inventories at Mongolian mines [12] [10]. Demand Side - The demand is under pressure due to the current off-season, with steel mills reducing production in response to losses, leading to a decrease in iron and steel output [5][12]. - Steel mills are showing a cautious purchasing strategy, with a noticeable slowdown in procurement of coking coal due to poor profit margins [12][10]. Inventory Situation - Overall inventory levels are decreasing across the supply chain, with coal mine inventories, port inventories, and coking plant inventories all showing declines [12][10]. - Despite the decline in inventories, the market is experiencing pressure from the current demand weakness [12]. Price Dynamics - Coking coal prices have shown resilience despite recent pressures, with the domestic coking coal spot price index reported at 1404.6 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight decrease [12]. - The basis differential has widened significantly, indicating a disconnect between futures and spot prices, which has contributed to increased selling pressure [6][9]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has shifted towards caution, with recent government signals aimed at stabilizing coal prices leading to reduced bullish sentiment among market participants [13][9]. - The overall outlook for coking coal remains mixed, with potential for price stabilization in the long term, but short-term pressures are expected to persist [9][10].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes and supply concerns, with a focus on maintaining energy supply during the heating season [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Prices and Trends - In the Luliang region, the price of primary coking coal has increased by 10 yuan to 1650 yuan/ton [1] - Vietnam's coal imports reached 4.8284 million tons in October 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 21.99% and a year-on-year increase of 11.27% [1] - From January to October 2025, Vietnam's total coal imports amounted to 55.5707 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.33% [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a policy vacuum, weak terminal demand, and concerns over coal supply, leading to a pullback in the double焦盘面 [2] - Despite tight supply conditions for coking coal, demand remains weak, and inventory levels are accumulating but remain low, limiting the downward price adjustment space [3] - The strategy suggests observing for signs of price stabilization and taking advantage of potential buying opportunities during coking coal pullbacks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant drop in coking coal prices, attributing it to a shift in supply expectations following a meeting held by the National Development and Reform Commission regarding energy supply for the heating season in 2025-2026 [4][7]. Market Review - Coking coal prices saw a substantial decline, with the main contract for January 2024 closing at 1213 CNY/ton, down 3.81%, and the May contract at 1272 CNY/ton, down 2.04% [4]. Reasons for Coking Coal Price Drop - The drop in coking coal prices occurred despite strong fundamentals, primarily due to a change in supply expectations after the government meeting emphasized the importance of ensuring energy supply for the heating season [7][9]. Fundamental Conditions - Since June, coal prices have rebounded significantly from below 620 CNY/ton to 817 CNY/ton, driven by tightening supply expectations and a potential cold winter increasing demand [9][12]. - Current market conditions indicate a tight balance in the spot market, with domestic coal production remaining low, although there has been an increase in imported coal from Mongolia [12][15]. Variables to Monitor - The article suggests that while the market has reacted to supply expectation changes, actual coal production has not yet increased, and significant growth in production is unlikely in the fourth quarter due to safety production requirements [15]. - The focus should be on whether the spot market will adjust in response to the futures market's decline [15].

Core Viewpoint - The company has implemented multiple measures to enhance coal inventory for its thermal power plants as the heating season begins in Liaoning Province, ensuring sufficient supply for the winter and spring [1][2]. Group 1: Coal Inventory Management - As of October 31, the company's coal inventory reached 1.55 million tons, with external coal reserves at 956,000 tons, providing 26.1 days of supply at 80% operational load [1]. - The company has developed a comprehensive coal supply guarantee plan for the winter and spring heating season, focusing on monitoring coal mine production capacity and coordinating coal distribution among thermal power enterprises [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain Optimization - The company emphasizes strict control over procurement, transportation, and storage processes to ensure 100% delivery of self-owned coal, utilizing strategies like "storing during off-peak and consuming during peak" and reinforcing long-term coal contracts [2]. - Thermal power enterprises under the company are optimizing coal source reserves by accurately understanding coal types, calorific values, and price trends, while actively purchasing and blending economical coal types to ensure stable supply during emergencies [2]. Group 3: Risk Management and Environmental Control - The company has enhanced its management practices by implementing full-process monitoring of coal unloading and storage to prevent issues such as coal pile deformation and self-ignition, thereby reducing environmental hazards [2]. - Detailed emergency plans have been developed to address potential equipment failures and tight coal inventory situations, along with proactive emergency drills to improve the skills and response capabilities of professional personnel [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the dedication and meticulous efforts of coal miners during the National Day holiday, emphasizing their commitment to ensuring safe and efficient operations in the coal mine despite personal sacrifices [1][6]. Group 1: Mining Operations - The team successfully completed the connection of the 22212 auxiliary transportation roadway, with a minor deviation of 8 millimeters from the standard, which needs to be reduced to within 5 centimeters for the next two 12-meter tunnels [1]. - The miners are focused on the safety and precision of their work, with strict adherence to measurements and support parameters to prevent potential hazards such as collapses [2][3]. Group 2: Equipment Maintenance - A malfunction of the drilling machine's motor was quickly diagnosed and repaired by the maintenance team, ensuring that operations could resume without significant delays [4][6]. - The maintenance crew demonstrated efficiency and expertise in troubleshooting and fixing equipment issues, which is crucial for maintaining continuous production [5][6]. Group 3: Teamwork and Commitment - The article illustrates the strong teamwork among miners, with each member taking responsibility for their tasks, from measuring and marking to equipment handling and repairs [2][3][4]. - The miners' hard work and attention to detail are portrayed as essential elements in achieving operational goals and ensuring safety in the mine [6].

Core Insights - Inner Mongolia's coal production reached 640 million tons in the first half of the year, with approximately 60% directed to major consumption areas in Northeast, North, and East China [1] - The region is focusing on high-standard construction of coal supply guarantee bases, implementing immediate reporting and review for coal mine capacity increases, and promoting the resumption and stable production of coal mines [1] - Inner Mongolia added 11.91 million kilowatts of power generation capacity in the first half of the year, bringing total installed capacity to 270 million kilowatts, with a power generation of 4,167 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - The region exported 165.6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, accounting for over one-sixth of the national cross-province electricity exports, with green electricity making up 29.6%, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous year [1] - Inner Mongolia aims to provide more stable, green, and affordable electricity nationwide, accelerating the construction of existing power projects and controlling unplanned maintenance shutdowns [1] - The region has revised green electricity trading implementation rules, introduced new cross-province green electricity trading mechanisms, and is transitioning the Mongolian West electricity spot market to formal operation [1]

Core Insights - Inner Mongolia's coal production reached 640 million tons in the first half of the year, with approximately 60% directed to major consumption areas in Northeast, North, and East China [1] - The region is focusing on high-standard construction of coal supply guarantee bases, implementing immediate reporting and review for coal mine capacity increases, and promoting the resumption and stable production of coal mines [1] - Inner Mongolia added 11.91 million kilowatts of power generation capacity in the first half of the year, bringing total installed capacity to 270 million kilowatts, with a power generation of 4,167 billion kilowatt-hours [1] - The region exported 165.6 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, accounting for over one-sixth of the national cross-province electricity exports, with green electricity making up 29.6%, a 9 percentage point increase from the same period last year [1] - Inner Mongolia is accelerating the construction of existing power source projects, controlling non-scheduled maintenance, and promoting full operation of existing units to provide stable, green, and affordable electricity nationwide [1] - The region has revised green electricity trading implementation rules, introduced new cross-province green electricity trading mechanisms, and is transitioning the Mongolian West electricity spot market to formal operation while conducting trial settlements in the Mongolian East electricity spot market [1]