宁证期货分析称，供应端，主产地部分前期停产煤矿陆续恢复生产，但山西吕梁、临汾等地仍有新增停 产矿井，国内供应依旧偏紧。进口端，受蒙古国节日及恶劣天气影响，蒙煤通关稍减，海运煤到港量仍 持高位，持续补充国内供应。需求端，焦炭产量回升，但中下游采购情绪较差。整体上，当前现货情绪 不佳，基本面边际小幅恶化，期现延续承压，但盘面当前估值水平过低，且国内煤矿低产量状态将延 续，后续中下游冬储补库预期较强，现货价格底部支撑仍在，预计盘面震荡运行。 中辉期货表示，国内原煤产量环比下降，山西地区部分煤矿因发生事故集体停产，供应端扰动仍存在不 确定性，预计短期产量仍将维持偏低水平。中蒙口岸已恢复正常通行，近期蒙煤成交清淡，产地煤价格 承压跟跌，短期阶段性需求释放后补库意愿下降，矿山库存环比回升。价格接近区间下沿，短期或有反 复，谨慎操作。 瑞达期货（002961）指出，宏观面，国家发改委政策研究室副主任、新闻发言人李超11月27日在新闻发 布会上表示，今年供暖季能源供需总体是平衡的，资源供应有保障。基本面，本期矿山产能利用率回 落，矿端及洗煤厂精煤库存连续4周增加，库存中性，总库存有季节性回升趋势。技术方面，日K位于 20和6 ...

Group 1 - The Indonesian government has announced an increase in all grades of coal benchmark prices (HBA) for the second half of October, with high calorific value coal (GAR 6322 kcal/kg) set at $109.74 per ton FOB, a rise of 2.62% compared to the first half of the month [1] - The benchmark price for medium calorific value coal (GAR 5300 kcal) has been raised to $67.76 per ton, reflecting an increase of over 4%, while low calorific value coal (GAR 4100 kcal) saw a slight increase of 1% to $43.71 per ton [1] - On October 21, the online auction prices for coking coal in the Lüliang market increased, with high-sulfur coking coal starting at 1200 CNY per ton and closing at 1265 CNY per ton, while low-sulfur coking coal had an average transaction price of 1573 CNY per ton, up 103 CNY from the previous auction [1] Group 2 - According to research from Everbright Futures, the supply side is experiencing a reduction due to stricter environmental and safety regulations leading to some coal mines in the Uihai region being temporarily shut down, resulting in a decrease in overall operating rates [2] - Demand remains stable as downstream coking enterprises maintain their operating rates, but some steel companies are facing profit pressures, leading to varying degrees of production cuts or maintenance, which may impact the demand for raw coal [2] - Huawen Futures indicates that the market is experiencing a tug-of-war between constrained terminal demand and support from the industry, with concerns about steel demand recovery and profit shrinkage in steel mills, while coking enterprises maintain high operating levels, leading to a short-term oscillation in coking coal prices [2]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals saw a significant decline, with coking coal futures experiencing a fluctuation, reaching a high of 1172.0 CNY/ton and a low of 1119.0 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of approximately 5.47% [1] - According to Ruida Futures, macroeconomic developments from the China-US trade talks suggest a potential extension of the 24% tariffs and countermeasures for 90 days, which may influence coking coal prices positively [1] - The supply-demand situation indicates an increase in iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, while domestic port inventories are rising, although the year-on-year decline is expanding, supporting the demand for coking coal [1] Group 2 - Duyue Futures noted that steel prices are stabilizing with a slight increase, and the fourth round of coking coal price hikes has been fully implemented, leading to expectations of continued inventory replenishment in the downstream market [2] - Chaos Tiancheng Futures highlighted that the main production areas have received fewer notifications regarding overproduction, suggesting limited immediate impact on output, while the rapid recovery of coal imports from Mongolia may help balance supply and demand [2] - The market sentiment is currently volatile, with high risks, prompting a recommendation to observe and wait for stabilization before making further decisions, especially with the upcoming political bureau meeting [2]

Group 1 - The coal futures market in China is showing a predominantly positive trend, with coking coal futures experiencing fluctuations and a current increase of approximately 1.25% [1] - Coking coal production is declining due to safety inspections and environmental checks, leading to a slight increase in spot auction prices and a decrease in terminal inventory [1] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements remains ample, and despite the seasonal downturn in downstream iron and steel production, there is a certain level of optimism in the market [1] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures indicates that the supply-demand imbalance for coking coal is easing, and geopolitical conflicts are providing support for energy commodities, suggesting potential for further upward movement in the short term [2] - However, downstream enterprises lack confidence in future demand, and the current rebound has not significantly improved spot market sentiment, with ongoing pressure from high upstream inventory levels [2] - Zhonghui Futures notes that while domestic coking coal prices have slightly rebounded, the overall supply-demand situation remains loose, and geopolitical disturbances may lead to short-term price fluctuations, but mid-term trends are expected to remain within a range [2]

Group 1 - The main futures contract for coking coal experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 796.0 yuan, with a current price of 778.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.11% [1] - According to Everbright Futures, the short-term outlook for coking coal is expected to be volatile [1] - Guantong Futures indicates that the fundamental outlook remains loose, and the long-term trend for coking coal is still bearish [1] Group 2 - In the spot market, high-sulfur coking coal prices in Shanxi's Linfen region have decreased by 56-70 yuan, now priced at 680-744 yuan per ton [1] - The Inner Mongolia market is showing weak performance, with prices for Mongolian raw coal and refined coal declining by 5 and 7 yuan respectively, leading to a lack of market transactions [1] - On the supply side, safety incidents in some coal mines have led to production halts and restrictions, resulting in a slight increase in procurement in the spot trading segment [1] Group 3 - Demand for coking coal is expected to decrease as major steel mills are reducing coking coal procurement due to falling iron water production [1] - The steel industry is experiencing a high inventory of coking coal, and the average daily production of molten iron is declining, which weakens the demand for coking coal [1] - Overall, while there is a short-term rebound in coking coal prices due to market stimuli, the long-term outlook remains bearish due to a loose fundamental environment [1]