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中美经贸会谈又有新进展 短期焦煤或偏强运行
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-30 06:05
混沌天成期货表示,当前市场反馈主产地收到查超产的文件通知较少,暂时对产量影响有限,并且蒙煤 通关快速恢复,供需缺口修复,在主产区产量未受到较大影响的情况下,供需面不支持焦煤持续暴涨, 当前市场情绪波动巨大,风险很高,建议观望,等待情绪稳定,关注政策执行力度。传明天政治局会议 召开,关注政策变化。 7月30日,国内期市能化板块跌幅居前。其中,焦煤期货主力合约开盘报1121.0元/吨,今日盘中高位震 荡运行;截至发稿,焦煤主力最高触及1172.0元,下方探低1119.0元,涨幅达5.47%附近。 目前来看,焦煤行情呈现震荡上行走势,盘面表现偏强。对于焦煤后市行情将如何运行,相关机构观点 汇总如下: 瑞达期货(002961)分析称,宏观方面,中美经贸会谈又有新进展,根据会谈共识,双方将继续推动已 暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天。供需情况,本期澳巴铁矿石发运量增 加,到港量减少,国内港口库存继续提升,但同比降幅扩大;钢厂高炉开工率持平,铁水产量维持240 万吨上方,需求支撑依存。整体上,会议预期发酵及焦煤重新走高,钢价大涨支撑炉料偏强运行。技术 上,I2509合约1小时MACD指标显示DI ...
供需层面仍然偏宽松 焦煤期货价格窄幅震荡为主
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-23 06:20
Group 1 - The coal futures market in China is showing a predominantly positive trend, with coking coal futures experiencing fluctuations and a current increase of approximately 1.25% [1] - Coking coal production is declining due to safety inspections and environmental checks, leading to a slight increase in spot auction prices and a decrease in terminal inventory [1] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements remains ample, and despite the seasonal downturn in downstream iron and steel production, there is a certain level of optimism in the market [1] Group 2 - Nanhua Futures indicates that the supply-demand imbalance for coking coal is easing, and geopolitical conflicts are providing support for energy commodities, suggesting potential for further upward movement in the short term [2] - However, downstream enterprises lack confidence in future demand, and the current rebound has not significantly improved spot market sentiment, with ongoing pressure from high upstream inventory levels [2] - Zhonghui Futures notes that while domestic coking coal prices have slightly rebounded, the overall supply-demand situation remains loose, and geopolitical disturbances may lead to short-term price fluctuations, but mid-term trends are expected to remain within a range [2]
焦企对原料煤采购有所推迟 焦煤长期偏空趋势未改
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-06 06:01
Group 1 - The main futures contract for coking coal experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 796.0 yuan, with a current price of 778.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.11% [1] - According to Everbright Futures, the short-term outlook for coking coal is expected to be volatile [1] - Guantong Futures indicates that the fundamental outlook remains loose, and the long-term trend for coking coal is still bearish [1] Group 2 - In the spot market, high-sulfur coking coal prices in Shanxi's Linfen region have decreased by 56-70 yuan, now priced at 680-744 yuan per ton [1] - The Inner Mongolia market is showing weak performance, with prices for Mongolian raw coal and refined coal declining by 5 and 7 yuan respectively, leading to a lack of market transactions [1] - On the supply side, safety incidents in some coal mines have led to production halts and restrictions, resulting in a slight increase in procurement in the spot trading segment [1] Group 3 - Demand for coking coal is expected to decrease as major steel mills are reducing coking coal procurement due to falling iron water production [1] - The steel industry is experiencing a high inventory of coking coal, and the average daily production of molten iron is declining, which weakens the demand for coking coal [1] - Overall, while there is a short-term rebound in coking coal prices due to market stimuli, the long-term outlook remains bearish due to a loose fundamental environment [1]