Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of 26.50 RMB per share based on a 25x PE for 2026E [4][9]. Core Insights - The company has shown sustained growth in the first three quarters, achieving a revenue of 1.70 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.34%. The gross profit margin improved by 1.03 percentage points, and the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 31.90% to 132 million RMB [4][10]. - The third quarter saw impressive growth in recurring net profit attributable to shareholders, with a revenue of 547 million RMB (YoY +18.92%) and a net profit increase of 21.00%. Excluding other income, the recurring net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 86.30% [4][10]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the oats and health foods sector, focusing on quality and innovation while expanding into new product categories such as protein powder and health products [4][10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 1,578 million RMB for 2023, 1,896 million RMB for 2024, 2,263 million RMB for 2025, 2,707 million RMB for 2026, and 3,221 million RMB for 2027, with respective growth rates of 18.9%, 20.2%, 19.3%, 19.6%, and 19.0% [3][6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 115 million RMB in 2023, increasing to 305 million RMB by 2027, with growth rates of 6.1%, 15.4%, 33.6%, 33.0%, and 28.7% respectively [3][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.52 RMB in 2023 to 1.36 RMB in 2027 [3][6].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a decline in sales and brand partner productivity leading up to the global convention in August, but recent activity has shown improvement [4][7] - Year-to-date sales growth for the direct-to-consumer business, HYA, is at 26%, indicating a positive trajectory despite challenges in the third quarter [10] - RiseBAR reported record third-quarter net sales with year-to-date net sales increasing by 169% [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The enhanced compensation plan has led to increased engagement and excitement among brand partners, contributing to improved sales activity and leader productivity [5][7] - The company has seen an increase in inventories due to new product introductions and investments in inventory locations to support tariff mitigation [8] - HYA has faced challenges in top-line growth but is expected to bounce back as operational efficiencies are realized [10][29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Americas and Europe regions performed relatively better than other regions, attributed to the maturity of these markets and the impact of the RiseBAR performance [25][26] - The children's vitamin market, where HYA operates, is competitive, but HYA has been gaining market share through its direct-to-consumer model [42] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a comprehensive commercial strategy that includes an enhanced compensation plan, product innovation, and improved tools for brand partners [5][6] - There is a commitment to diversification, with plans to explore mergers and acquisitions to strengthen the portfolio [46][47] - A global cost reduction process has been initiated, including workforce rightsizing, to support a more agile organization [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth potential of the direct selling business and the diversification strategy with HYA and RiseBAR [13][14] - The company is optimistic about the future, citing renewed excitement among brand partners and positive early indicators from the new compensation plan [4][7] Other Important Information - The company anticipates a one-time charge of $4.7 million in the fourth quarter related to the global cost reduction process [13] - The management is focused on ensuring that the new compensation plan is well understood and embraced by brand partners globally [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you walk us through the trajectory of your business trends from July through October? - Management noted promising trends from the new compensation plan launched in July, with increased engagement and excitement observed in September and early October [17][19] Question: Why did the Americas and Europe region perform better? - The performance was influenced by the global convention and the contribution from RiseBAR, which is a smaller percentage of overall sales [25][26] Question: What incentives are planned for the fourth quarter? - The company plans to provide strategic incentives for brand partners, which are expected to carry over into Q1 of the following year [27] Question: What are the reasons for the decline in active customer count for HYA? - Management indicated that the decline was due to changes in marketing algorithms on platforms like Meta, but they expect a rebound as they adapt [28][29] Question: How will the rightsizing of the organization impact annualized operating cost savings? - Management stated that they are still early in the process and will provide more details on cost savings in February [30][31] Question: Are there opportunities for further acquisitions in the DTC space? - The company is committed to diversification and will explore opportunities for mergers and acquisitions to strengthen its portfolio [46][47]

Group 1 - The stock price of Tongchen Beijian reached 12.36 yuan as of August 15, 2025, with an increase of 0.14 yuan, representing a rise of 1.15% [1] - The trading volume on that day was 239,820 hands, with a total transaction amount of 296 million yuan [1] - Tongchen Beijian operates in the food and beverage industry, specializing in the research, production, and sales of dietary nutritional supplements, including protein powder, vitamins, and minerals [1] Group 2 - On the evening of August 15, Tongchen Beijian announced that neither the company nor its subsidiaries provided guarantees to companies or individuals outside the consolidated financial statements, confirming no violations or overdue guarantees or litigation related to guarantees [1] - On August 15, the net inflow of main funds into Tongchen Beijian was 13.2831 million yuan, accounting for 0.1% of the circulating market value [1] - Over the past five trading days, the cumulative net outflow of main funds was 60.1373 million yuan, representing 0.43% of the circulating market value [1]

Group 1: Product Potential and Innovation - The company is focusing on the development of oatmeal and composite products, which have shown high growth and consumer acceptance [1] - The company plans to continue launching new health-oriented products, including traditional Chinese medicine and wellness items [1] - There is an emphasis on enhancing the leisure attributes of oatmeal products to expand into more casual consumption channels [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company is recognized as the leading oatmeal brand in China, with a strong brand influence and consumer trust [2] - A diversified product matrix is being developed, including innovations in oatmeal milk, protein powder, and oatmeal porridge [2] - The company maintains a comprehensive online and offline sales network, with a strong presence in e-commerce, holding the top position in the oatmeal category [2] Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Outlook - The company expects a 15% year-on-year revenue growth in 2025, supported by a favorable market outlook for the oatmeal industry [2] - The company is actively managing raw material costs and optimizing supply chain efficiency to mitigate cost pressures [3] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 is expected to remain stable compared to the previous year [3] Group 4: Market Position and Industry Trends - The company holds the number one position in the Chinese oatmeal market, with both online and offline sales leading the industry [5] - The breakfast food market in China is valued at approximately 100 billion, with oatmeal showing faster growth [5] - The market share of the top three companies in the oatmeal industry in China is around 51%, indicating room for increased concentration compared to Japan (82%) and the USA (66%) [5]