1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2605 will be in a low - level oscillation, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of oscillation, oscillation, and weak oscillation respectively, due to a weakly stable supply - demand pattern [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating, with an overall outlook of low - level oscillation. The core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern, where steel prices move in an oscillating manner. The supply is at a relatively low level and rising with limited increase, while the demand is weakening [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Supply is rising from a low level but with limited increase and remains at a relatively low position, providing support for steel prices, yet there is an expectation of further increase. Demand is running weakly, with high - frequency demand indicators falling and at the lowest level in recent years. Downstream industries have not improved, and demand will seasonally weaken, putting pressure on steel prices. The steel price in the off - season is under pressure, and the relatively positive factors are policy expectations and cost support, so the subsequent trend will continue to be in low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]

Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3127 CNY/ton, down 9 CNY/ton or 0.29%, with a reduction in open interest by 15,600 contracts [3][12] - The national rebar production increased by 27,100 tons week-on-week to 1,843,900 tons, but decreased by 319,100 tons year-on-year [3][12] - The current supply-demand dynamics are neutral, with strong real demand but expectations of weakening demand as the off-season approaches [3][12] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 778.5 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton or 0.13%, with trading volume of 150,000 contracts and an increase in open interest by 13,000 contracts [4][13] - The total iron ore inventory at 47 ports increased by 3,944,300 tons to 166,199,600 tons, while steel mill inventories rose by 1,360,000 tons to 8,860,000 tons [4][13] - The market is expected to experience volatility due to mixed supply and demand factors, including high furnace maintenance and restarts [4][13] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1124 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton or 0.71%, with an increase in open interest by 3,115 contracts [6][14] - A coal mine accident in Yunnan has led to temporary shutdowns, exacerbating supply tightness [6][14] - Demand remains weak as steel mills continue to face profit pressures, leading to cautious purchasing behavior [6][14] Coking Coke - The coking coke futures contract closed at 1739 CNY/ton, down 7 CNY/ton or 0.4%, with an increase in open interest by 330 contracts [7][14] - The market for coking coke remains stable, with no significant price changes reported at major ports [7][14] - Demand is under pressure due to weak consumption in the market, leading to cautious purchasing strategies from steel mills [7][14] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures contract closed at 5846 CNY/ton, up 0.48%, with a decrease in open interest by 3,752 contracts [8][15] - Weekly manganese silicon production has decreased to a median level compared to previous years, with some factories reducing output [8][15] - Inventory levels among 63 sample enterprises increased by 2,500 tons to 384,500 tons, indicating limited demand support [8][15] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5692 CNY/ton, up 0.85%, with an increase in open interest by 6,584 contracts [9][16] - Recent production data shows a 6.1% decrease in weekly silicon iron output, with both reductions and restarts occurring [9][16] - Inventory levels among 60 sample enterprises decreased by 1,550 tons to 63,610 tons, suggesting a tightening supply situation [9][16]