1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2605 is "weak in oscillation", and the medium - term view is "oscillation". The report suggests paying attention to the pressure at the MA10 line. The core logic is that significant inventory accumulation during the holiday has put pressure on steel prices [2]. - In the situation of stable supply and weak demand, the industrial contradictions of rebar have continued to accumulate during the holiday, with a significant increase in inventory. The steel price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factors are policy expectations and cost support. It is expected that the trend will continue the weak bottom - seeking situation. Key attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation situation and the resumption rhythm of short - process steel mills after the holiday [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is "weak in oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak in oscillation". The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, and the core logic is significant inventory accumulation during the holiday, which puts pressure on steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - During the holiday, spot trading stagnated, and prices remained stable. The industrial contradictions of rebar continued to accumulate, with a significant increase in inventory. The weekly output of rebar increased by 12,200 tons month - on - month, showing a slight recovery from a low level, and the inventory level was high, so the supply pressure was not relieved. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of short - process steel mills after the holiday [3]. - Affected by the holiday, the demand for rebar was weak. High - frequency demand indicators were at a low level in the same period in recent years, and there was a time lag in recovery. The weak demand pattern remained unchanged, which continued to drag down steel prices. The relatively positive factor was the possible strengthening of policy expectations [3].

Rebar Steel - The rebar market showed weak fluctuations, with the 2605 contract closing at 3050 CNY/ton, down 4 CNY/ton or 0.13% from the previous trading day, and open interest decreased by 34,000 contracts [3][13] - National rebar production decreased by 225,200 tons week-on-week to 1,691,600 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 49,700 tons [3][13] - Social inventory increased by 573,100 tons to 4,232,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 767,400 tons, while factory inventory rose by 99,400 tons to 1,635,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 268,700 tons [3][13] - Rebar demand fell by 457,300 tons to 1,019,100 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 150,000 tons [3][13] - The inventory accumulation in recent weeks has been significantly higher than the same period last year, with a total increase of 1,036,100 tons year-on-year [3][13] - Market sentiment may be affected by the expected inventory accumulation post-holiday, but rebar prices are expected to have limited downward space due to macroeconomic policies and overall strong performance in the commodity market [3][13] Iron Ore - The main iron ore futures contract i2605 closed at 762 CNY/ton, down 0.5 CNY/ton or 0.07% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 110,000 contracts and a decrease in open interest of 9,000 contracts [14][15] - The supply side was impacted by a significant reduction in shipments from Australia due to a hurricane, leading to a global decrease in shipment volumes [14][15] - On the demand side, 8 new blast furnaces were under maintenance while 11 were restarted, resulting in a slight increase in pig iron production by 19,100 tons to 2,304,900 tons [15] - The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports decreased by 1,825,600 tons to 177,320,000 tons, while steel mills' imported ore inventory continued to accumulate by 3,870,000 tons [15] Coking Coal - The coking coal market saw a decline, with the 2605 contract closing at 1,120 CNY/ton, down 3.5 CNY/ton or 0.31%, and open interest decreased by 17,938 contracts [16] - Supply from private coal mines has entered the holiday period, and state-owned mines are limiting supply while ensuring safety [16] - Demand from coking steel enterprises is weakening as most have completed pre-holiday stockpiling, leading to a high level of inventory [16] Coking Coke - The coking coke market also experienced a decline, with the 2605 contract closing at 1,664 CNY/ton, down 3 CNY/ton or 0.18%, while open interest increased by 280 contracts [17] - The spot market for coking coke remained stable, with prices at the port unchanged [17] - Steel mills have completed winter stockpiling, leading to reduced purchasing enthusiasm for coking coke [17] Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices showed a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 5,800 CNY/ton, down 0.45%, and open interest increased by 10,954 contracts to 378,400 contracts [18] - The market price for manganese silicon in various regions ranged from 5,570 to 5,750 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease in some areas [18] - Inventory levels among sample enterprises increased slightly, remaining at historically high levels [18] Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices also declined, with the main contract closing at 5,500 CNY/ton, down 1.47%, and open interest increased by 25,052 contracts to 187,400 contracts [19] - The market price for silicon iron varied between 5,250 and 5,300 CNY/ton, with some regions seeing a price drop [19] - Inventory levels among sample enterprises decreased slightly, remaining at mid-levels compared to historical data [19]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2605 will be in a low - level oscillation, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of oscillation, oscillation, and weak oscillation respectively, due to a weakly stable supply - demand pattern [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating, with an overall outlook of low - level oscillation. The core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern, where steel prices move in an oscillating manner. The supply is at a relatively low level and rising with limited increase, while the demand is weakening [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Supply is rising from a low level but with limited increase and remains at a relatively low position, providing support for steel prices, yet there is an expectation of further increase. Demand is running weakly, with high - frequency demand indicators falling and at the lowest level in recent years. Downstream industries have not improved, and demand will seasonally weaken, putting pressure on steel prices. The steel price in the off - season is under pressure, and the relatively positive factors are policy expectations and cost support, so the subsequent trend will continue to be in low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]

Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3127 CNY/ton, down 9 CNY/ton or 0.29%, with a reduction in open interest by 15,600 contracts [3][12] - The national rebar production increased by 27,100 tons week-on-week to 1,843,900 tons, but decreased by 319,100 tons year-on-year [3][12] - The current supply-demand dynamics are neutral, with strong real demand but expectations of weakening demand as the off-season approaches [3][12] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 778.5 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton or 0.13%, with trading volume of 150,000 contracts and an increase in open interest by 13,000 contracts [4][13] - The total iron ore inventory at 47 ports increased by 3,944,300 tons to 166,199,600 tons, while steel mill inventories rose by 1,360,000 tons to 8,860,000 tons [4][13] - The market is expected to experience volatility due to mixed supply and demand factors, including high furnace maintenance and restarts [4][13] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1124 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton or 0.71%, with an increase in open interest by 3,115 contracts [6][14] - A coal mine accident in Yunnan has led to temporary shutdowns, exacerbating supply tightness [6][14] - Demand remains weak as steel mills continue to face profit pressures, leading to cautious purchasing behavior [6][14] Coking Coke - The coking coke futures contract closed at 1739 CNY/ton, down 7 CNY/ton or 0.4%, with an increase in open interest by 330 contracts [7][14] - The market for coking coke remains stable, with no significant price changes reported at major ports [7][14] - Demand is under pressure due to weak consumption in the market, leading to cautious purchasing strategies from steel mills [7][14] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures contract closed at 5846 CNY/ton, up 0.48%, with a decrease in open interest by 3,752 contracts [8][15] - Weekly manganese silicon production has decreased to a median level compared to previous years, with some factories reducing output [8][15] - Inventory levels among 63 sample enterprises increased by 2,500 tons to 384,500 tons, indicating limited demand support [8][15] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5692 CNY/ton, up 0.85%, with an increase in open interest by 6,584 contracts [9][16] - Recent production data shows a 6.1% decrease in weekly silicon iron output, with both reductions and restarts occurring [9][16] - Inventory levels among 60 sample enterprises decreased by 1,550 tons to 63,610 tons, suggesting a tightening supply situation [9][16]