Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The 2026 China People's Bank Work Conference emphasized promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, and planned to use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [8][22][28][30]. - Multiple factors drive the copper price to be strong. Supply - side concerns and long - term copper consumption recovery expectations, especially from emerging industries like AI computing centers,新能源 industries, and grid transformation, may lead to a continuous firm or rising copper price [9][10]. - For the Container Freight Index (European Line), the 2602 contract may make up the water price, and the far - month contracts should focus on the water - making up and the fermentation of geopolitical events [11][12][144]. - The silicon iron market is driven by emotions and medium - term expectations, and the price may rise, but the sustainability needs further confirmation [13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: Global geopolitical turmoil raises concerns about copper mine supply. The 2026 Chinese imported copper concentrate long - term TC is $0/ton, lower than in 2025. Some copper mines face potential labor disputes and production changes [9][24][26]. - **Demand - side**: Long - term copper consumption recovery expectations are strong. AI computing centers and other emerging industries, as well as the new energy industry and grid transformation, drive copper demand [9][10]. - **Price trend**: Based on the long - term positive fundamentals, the copper price may remain firm or rise [10]. Zinc - **Market performance**: The zinc price is running strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have also changed [27]. - **News influence**: Policy changes and geopolitical events may affect the zinc market [28]. Lead - **Market situation**: The LME lead inventory decrease supports the lead price. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and open interest have also shown corresponding trends [31]. - **News background**: Geopolitical events and corporate data influence the lead market [31]. Tin - **Market trend**: The tin price is in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures and spot have increased, and the inventory has changed [34]. - **News impact**: Macroeconomic policies and corporate news affect the tin market [35]. Aluminum - **Market performance**: The aluminum price is oscillating strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign aluminum futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have all changed [37]. - **News influence**: Fed policy differences and geopolitical events affect the aluminum market [38]. Platinum and Palladium - **Market trend**: Platinum shows a recovery in sentiment and runs strongly, and palladium follows platinum. The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume, open interest, and inventory have changed [39]. - **News background**: Geopolitical events and corporate news influence the market [42]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: Nickel is in a wide - range oscillation, and stainless steel is affected by the fundamentals and Indonesian policies. The prices, trading volume, and open interest of nickel - related products have changed, and the Indonesian government has introduced relevant policies [43][44][46]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market performance**: The market sentiment of carbonate lithium is strong. The prices of carbonate lithium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have changed [47]. - **News influence**: The price negotiation of lithium iron phosphate and the release of new battery products affect the market [48][49]. Energy and Chemicals Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market trend**: Industrial silicon is affected by news and shows a strong performance, and polysilicon needs to pay attention to market news. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon have changed [50]. - **News background**: The proposed implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi affects the industrial silicon market [51]. Iron Ore - **Market situation**: The iron ore price is fluctuating at a high level. The prices of iron ore futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume, open interest, and inventory have also shown corresponding trends [54][55]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market performance**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by market sentiment and are in a wide - range oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil have changed, and relevant policies have been introduced [58][59][60]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Market trend**: The prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon are oscillating upwards. The prices of futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have changed. The market is affected by potential electricity price increases and other factors [63][64][65]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market situation**: Coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation with accumulating contradictions. The prices of futures and spot, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and inventory, have changed [67]. Logs - **Market performance**: The log price is oscillating at a low level. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of log futures and spot have changed [70][71][73]. p - Xylene, PTA, and MEG - **Market trend**: p - Xylene is in a short - term high - level oscillation, PTA is in a high - level oscillation, and MEG has limited upward space and medium - term pressure. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant products have changed, and market news affects the market [74][75][76]. Rubber - **Market situation**: The rubber price is oscillating strongly. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of rubber futures and spot have changed, and the rubber cost support is strengthening [79][80][81]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market performance**: The short - term center of synthetic rubber moves upwards. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of synthetic rubber futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by the cost of butadiene [82][83][84]. LLDPE - **Market trend**: The LLDPE price is firm, and the standard product production decreases. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of LLDPE futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by raw material prices and supply - demand relationships [85][86]. PP - **Market situation**: The PP price is weak. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of PP futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by cost and demand [88][89]. Caustic Soda - **Market performance**: Caustic soda is strong in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of caustic soda futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as delivery and supply - demand [90][91][92]. Pulp - **Market trend**: The pulp price is oscillating strongly. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of pulp futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by raw material prices and demand [95][97][98]. Glass - **Market situation**: The glass price is stable. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of glass futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by the holiday atmosphere and demand [100][101]. Methanol - **Market performance**: Methanol is strong in the short - term. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of methanol futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by geopolitical events and supply - demand expectations [103][104][106]. Urea - **Market situation**: The urea price center moves upwards. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of urea futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as demand expectations and inventory [108][109][110]. Styrene - **Market trend**: Styrene is in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of styrene futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as valuation and supply - demand [113][114][115]. Soda Ash - **Market situation**: The soda ash market changes little. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of soda ash futures and spot have changed [117][119]. LPG and Propylene - **Market performance**: The LPG import cost is firm, and propylene demand is stable with a slight price increase. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of LPG and propylene futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [121]. PVC - **Market trend**: PVC is strong in the short - term but has limited upward space. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of PVC futures and spot have changed, and it is affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory [129][130][131]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market situation**: Fuel oil turns strong and is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures and spot have changed [134]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Market performance**: The 2602 contract may make up the water price, and the far - month contracts should focus on the water - making up and geopolitical events. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant contracts have changed, and the shipping capacity and freight rates have also been affected [136][142][143]. Agricultural Products Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Market situation**: Short - fiber and bottle chip are in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures and spot have changed [146][147]. Offset Printing Paper - **Market performance**: It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of offset printing paper futures and spot have changed, and the market demand is weak [149][150][152]. Pure Benzene - **Market situation**: Pure benzene is in a short - term oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of pure benzene futures and spot have changed, and the port inventory has increased [153][154]. Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil - **Market performance**: Palm oil is affected by macro - emotions, soybean oil is in a range - bound operation, and rapeseed oil shows corresponding price changes. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of relevant futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [157][158][159]. Soybean Meal and Soybeans - **Market situation**: Soybean meal may oscillate, and soybeans are in an oscillation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of soybean meal and soybean futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as Chinese purchases and USDA reports [162][163][164]. Corn - **Market performance**: Attention should be paid to the corn spot. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of corn futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as spot prices and import information [165][166][167]. Sugar - **Market situation**: Sugar is in a low - level consolidation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of sugar futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as production and import [169][170][171]. Cotton - **Market performance**: Cotton remains strong. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of cotton futures and spot have changed, and the market is affected by factors such as spot trading and textile enterprise operations [174][175]. Eggs - **Market situation**: The far - month sentiment of eggs weakens. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of egg futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [178]. Hogs - **Market performance**: There is still inventory accumulation for hogs. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of hog futures and spot have changed, and relevant industry data have also been updated [181][183][184]. Peanuts - **Market situation**: Peanuts are in an oscillating operation. The prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory of peanut futures and spot have changed, and the spot market price is relatively stable [187][188].

Rebar Steel - The rebar futures contract closed at 3127 CNY/ton, down 9 CNY/ton or 0.29%, with a reduction in open interest by 15,600 contracts [3][12] - The national rebar production increased by 27,100 tons week-on-week to 1,843,900 tons, but decreased by 319,100 tons year-on-year [3][12] - The current supply-demand dynamics are neutral, with strong real demand but expectations of weakening demand as the off-season approaches [3][12] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures contract closed at 778.5 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton or 0.13%, with trading volume of 150,000 contracts and an increase in open interest by 13,000 contracts [4][13] - The total iron ore inventory at 47 ports increased by 3,944,300 tons to 166,199,600 tons, while steel mill inventories rose by 1,360,000 tons to 8,860,000 tons [4][13] - The market is expected to experience volatility due to mixed supply and demand factors, including high furnace maintenance and restarts [4][13] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract closed at 1124 CNY/ton, down 8 CNY/ton or 0.71%, with an increase in open interest by 3,115 contracts [6][14] - A coal mine accident in Yunnan has led to temporary shutdowns, exacerbating supply tightness [6][14] - Demand remains weak as steel mills continue to face profit pressures, leading to cautious purchasing behavior [6][14] Coking Coke - The coking coke futures contract closed at 1739 CNY/ton, down 7 CNY/ton or 0.4%, with an increase in open interest by 330 contracts [7][14] - The market for coking coke remains stable, with no significant price changes reported at major ports [7][14] - Demand is under pressure due to weak consumption in the market, leading to cautious purchasing strategies from steel mills [7][14] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon futures contract closed at 5846 CNY/ton, up 0.48%, with a decrease in open interest by 3,752 contracts [8][15] - Weekly manganese silicon production has decreased to a median level compared to previous years, with some factories reducing output [8][15] - Inventory levels among 63 sample enterprises increased by 2,500 tons to 384,500 tons, indicating limited demand support [8][15] Silicon Iron - The silicon iron futures contract closed at 5692 CNY/ton, up 0.85%, with an increase in open interest by 6,584 contracts [9][16] - Recent production data shows a 6.1% decrease in weekly silicon iron output, with both reductions and restarts occurring [9][16] - Inventory levels among 60 sample enterprises decreased by 1,550 tons to 63,610 tons, suggesting a tightening supply situation [9][16]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, No. 05 Contract of Rapeseed Oil, Benzene Ethylene [1] - Neutral (Oscillation): Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Alumina, Zinc, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, High - Ash Coal, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Steam, PP, PVC, LPG, Shipping [1] Core Views - After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. However, further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. - The macro - sentiment has improved, and the prices of some metals such as copper, aluminum, and nickel are showing upward trends, while the fundamentals of some metals like alumina remain weak [1]. - In the non - ferrous metal industry, the production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, which has an impact on the market [1]. - In the stainless - steel industry, raw material prices are stable, inventory is decreasing, and production cuts are increasing [1]. - In the precious - metal and new - energy sectors, gold has reached a new high, and silver, platinum, and palladium are also bullish, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - In the black - metal industry, the black - metal sector has experienced a resonance decline, but there are signs of stabilization [1]. - In the agricultural - product market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and attention should be paid to various factors such as policies, weather, and inventories [1]. - In the energy - chemical industry, different products are affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, showing different price trends [1]. Summaries by Related Categories Macro - Financial - Stock Index: After the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, the risk appetite of global equity assets is gradually recovering, and the stock index is oscillating and rebounding. Further breakthrough requires volume support, and the market sentiment is expected to be cautious by the end of the year, with the stock index mainly oscillating [1]. - Treasury Bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, and copper prices are running strongly [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drive and improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - Alumina: The domestic fundamentals remain weak, and the price will remain low in the short term [1]. - Zinc: The fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has moved up, but the zinc price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits. Attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1]. - Nickel: The US inflation has slowed down more than expected, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike has warmed the macro - sentiment. The production plan of Indonesian nickel ore in 2026 is expected to be reduced, and the global nickel inventory is still high. The Shanghai nickel has rebounded significantly recently and may run strongly in the short term. The long - term primary nickel market remains in a surplus pattern [1]. - Stainless Steel: The price of raw material nickel - iron has stabilized, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and steel mills have increased production cuts in December. The stainless - steel futures continue to rebound, and short - term long - position operations are recommended, waiting for high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - Tin: The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still tense. The short - term macro - sentiment has improved, and coupled with capital speculation, the tin price has strengthened [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold: Due to loose liquidity and rising geopolitical tensions, the gold price has reached a new high and may run strongly in the short term, but there are risks of volatility [1]. - Silver: Macro - drive, supply - demand imbalance, and ETF position increase are beneficial to silver, but there are risks of short - term sharp fluctuations [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Driven by macro - factors, supply - demand imbalance, and capital sentiment, they may maintain a bullish pattern in the short term, but there are risks of market fluctuations, and investors are advised to participate cautiously [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward opportunities [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The direct demand is weak, the supply is high, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Glass: The supply - demand situation provides support, the valuation is low, and the price fluctuates strongly in the short term due to sentiment [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows the trend of glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the negative news was released, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to whether downstream enterprises will start winter - storage replenishment [1]. - High - Ash Coal: Although high - frequency data have improved, it is difficult to change the expectation of loose supply in the origin, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Affected by the decline of CBOT and other domestic oils, it is running weakly [1]. - Soybean Oil: Affected by the weak performance of related markets, it is running weakly [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The short - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be fully priced, and short - selling the 05 contract is recommended due to the expected high yield in the global main production areas [1]. - Cotton: There is support from the purchase price of seed cotton, and there is rigid replenishment demand in the downstream. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no drive", and attention should be paid to policies, planting area, and demand in the future [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling in the market. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below, but there is a lack of continuous drive in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Wheat and Corn: The market supply - demand tension has eased, but farmers are reluctant to sell, and the inventory is at a low level. There is expected to be some replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, which limits the decline of the price [1]. - Pulp: Affected by weak demand and strong supply expectations, it fluctuates greatly. Unilateral operations are recommended to wait and see, and 1 - 5 reverse spreads can be considered for the spread [1]. - Log: Affected by the decline of external quotes and spot prices, the 01 contract is under pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: It follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, and the supply of raw - material Marey crude oil is sufficient [1]. - Asphalt: The profit is relatively high, and it is affected by factors such as production - demand and cost [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: It is affected by factors such as inventory increase, cost decline, and policy changes [1]. - Short - Fiber: It closely follows the cost fluctuations [1]. - Steam: It is affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and production plans, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the market expectation is weak [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is weak, and the price is oscillating within a range [1]. - LPG: After the price correction, it maintains range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the impact of natural gas on the near - month price and the decline of the far - month spread [1]. - Shipping: The price increase in December was less than expected, the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose, and the market was affected by various factors [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The gold market shows strength with the Fed's expected rate - cut, suggesting a long - position for gold and a wait - and - see approach for silver [1]. - For base metals, different strategies are recommended for each metal based on their market performance, fundamentals, such as buying copper on dips, expecting aluminum to oscillate in the short - term, and predicting alumina to decline with oscillations [2]. - In the black industry, a wait - and - see approach is generally recommended, with attempts to short certain contracts like螺纹2605 and焦煤09 [5]. - In the agricultural products market, various trading strategies are proposed according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as trading South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports for soybeans, and shorting sugar futures [6]. - For energy and chemical products, different trading strategies are given based on the supply - demand balance, including short - term oscillations and long - term improvement for some products, and short - selling for others [7][8]. 3. Summary by Category Gold and Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: International gold prices broke through and strengthened, standing above $4400 per ounce, and domestic gold prices exceeded 1000 yuan. Silver inventories showed different trends in different markets [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Fed officials' statements, geopolitical events, and inventory changes in gold and silver affected the market. For example, the Fed may not cut rates until next spring, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different exchanges and ETFs [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long gold and wait - and - see for silver [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices oscillated [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The implementation time of US refined copper tariffs may be postponed, and the supply of copper mines remained tight [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.16% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect aluminum prices to oscillate in the short - term within the current high - level range [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 0.08% compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Alumina plants' operating capacity remained stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to decline with oscillations [2]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪锌2601 contract increased by 0.09% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: LME zinc inventories increased significantly, and the consumption off - season deepened [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rallies [3]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the沪铅2601 contract increased by 0.27% compared to the previous trading day, and social inventories decreased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of primary lead recovered after maintenance, while the supply of recycled lead decreased significantly. The lead battery start - up rate decreased slightly [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range, with a focus on long - positions at low prices [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 1.09% compared to the previous trading day, and the position increased [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The number of open furnaces decreased, and social inventories decreased. The demand from related industries remained stable [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly in the range of 8000 - 9000, and adopt a wait - and - see approach [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 increased by 2.7% [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased, production increased, and demand decreased in some sectors. December saw inventory reduction [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect short - term price increase with oscillations [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract decreased by 2.32% compared to the previous trading day, and the position decreased [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remained stable, demand decreased, and inventories increased slightly [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider long - positions on dips after the price returns to the spot trading range [4]. Black Industry Steel - **Market Performance**: The螺纹2605 contract increased by 25 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills continued to make losses, production might decline marginally, and the futures were at a large discount [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short螺纹2605 [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The铁矿2605 contract decreased by 1.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Iron ore supply and demand were weak, and the port inventory increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The焦煤2605 contract increased by 19 yuan/ton compared to the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal supply and demand were weak, and the futures were at a premium [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and attempt to short焦煤09 [5]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The CBOT soybean rebounded overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Global soybean supply - demand is expected to be loose, with strong US soybean crushing and slow exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Trade South American soybean bumper harvest expectations and weak exports, and the domestic market is driven down by cost in the short - term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices are weak, and spot prices slightly declined [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The grain - selling progress slowed down, and downstream demand decreased [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose in the short - term [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is in seasonal decline but with year - on - year growth, and demand shows an increase in exports [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oils and fats may enter an oscillation phase with product differentiation [6]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The郑糖05 contract increased by 0.41% [6]. - **Fundamentals**: International sugar prices rebounded slightly, and the domestic market followed with a smaller increase. The long - term global sugar production is expected to increase [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short sugar futures and sell call options [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices are weak, and spot prices increased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The inventory of laying hens decreased, and demand is affected by price changes [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices oscillate, and spot prices show a north - up and south - down pattern [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is still abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate [6]. Energy and Chemical Products LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The LLDPE main contract continued to decline slightly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eases, and demand weakens in the agricultural film sector [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: V05 decreased by 1.7% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and inventory is at a high level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell or use reverse spreads [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PX and PTA prices are at certain levels with a specific basis [7]. - **Fundamentals**: PX supply is high, and PTA has short - term supply decline and medium - term inventory accumulation pressure [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - position PX in the medium - term and look for opportunities to long PTA processing margins in 05 [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: fg05 decreased by 1.5% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Glass prices decline, and inventory accumulates. Supply and demand are both weak [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP main contract continued to decline slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases, demand weakens, and the export window opens [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for far - month contracts [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: MEG has a certain spot price and basis [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is high, inventory accumulates, and demand weakens in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profit in the short - term and look for inventory reduction opportunities in the medium - term for 05 [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Oil prices rose due to short - term supply reduction [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is large, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell crude oil on rallies [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract rebounded slightly [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is weak in the short - term, and demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term oscillation with a downward trend, and long - positions on dips for styrene and related spreads in the second quarter [8]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: sa05 decreased by 0.8% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply increases with new device production, and demand from photovoltaic glass is weak with high inventory [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Use reverse spreads [9].

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: BR Rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Industrial Silicon, Palm Oil [1] - **Neutral (Oscillation)**: Bonds, Agricultural Products, Alumina, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals (Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium), Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Soybeans, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Bitumen, Ethylene Glycol, Benzene - Naphtha, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue its weak trend, but the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of the stock index next year [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks [1] - The market sentiment is volatile, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels for some products [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Short - term weak operation, long - term upward potential. Investors can gradually establish long positions during the adjustment period [1] - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum**: High - level wide - range oscillation due to limited industrial drive and fluctuating macro sentiment [1] - **Alumina**: Weak domestic fundamentals, short - term price rebound but limited upward drive [1] - **Zinc**: Fundamentals improved, cost center shifted up, but price is under pressure. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - **Nickel**: After a sharp decline, there is a demand for position - reduction repair. Short - term trading is recommended, and the long - term supply of primary nickel is in surplus [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading is recommended, waiting for opportunities to sell on rallies [1] - **Tin**: Short - term oscillation, long - term bullish. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities during corrections [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the cooling of the US CPI in November, but short - term volatility risks need to be vigilant [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Bearish due to increased production in the northwest, reduced production in the southwest, and decreased production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, marginal improvement in terminal installation in the fourth quarter, and strong price - holding and low - delivery willingness of large enterprises [1] - **Lithium**: In the traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, with strong energy - storage demand, increased production on the supply side, and the potential to break through previous highs [1] Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Roll over and take profits on cash - and - carry positions. Valuation is not high, and short - selling is not recommended [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Manganese Ore and Ferrosilicon**: Prices are under pressure due to weak direct demand, high supply, and inventory accumulation [1] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Supply and demand provide support, valuation is low, but short - term price fluctuations are strong [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a decline, there are signs of stabilization. Pay attention to winter - storage replenishment by downstream enterprises this week [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Short - term short - selling is recommended due to continuous negative high - frequency data and high pressure on the origin [1] - **Soybeans**: Pay attention to the negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is recommended to short the 05 contract as the near - term raw - material shortage theme is expected to be exhausted [1] - **Cotton**: The market is currently supported but lacks a driving force. Pay attention to relevant policies and market conditions in the future [1] - **Sugar**: There is a consensus on short - selling, but there is strong cost support below. Pay attention to changes in the capital side [1] - **Wheat and Corn**: The short - term decline is limited by farmers' price - holding sentiment and downstream stocking demand before the Spring Festival [1] - **Pulp**: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait and see, and consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] - **Logs**: The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly as it approaches the delivery month [1] - **Live Pigs**: Production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Affected by OPEC+ production - suspension, the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports [1] - **Bitumen**: Follows crude oil in the short term, with high profit and possible falsification of the 14th - Five - Year Plan's rush - demand [1] - **BR Rubber**: Bullish due to improved cost - side support, increased sales, and high operating rates [1] - **PTA and Short - Fiber**: The PTA device operates at a high load, and short - fiber prices follow costs closely [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Prices decline due to inventory accumulation and weakening cost support [1] - **Benzene - Naphtha**: There is slight cost - side support, but overall production economy is negative, and inventory is high [1] - **Urea, Propylene, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: Prices oscillate due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance, cost changes, and reduced anti - involution sentiment [1] - **LPG**: The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and prices oscillate after a decline. Pay attention to the impact of natural gas on near - month prices [1] Other - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The price increase in December was less than expected, and the supply of shipping capacity was relatively loose [1]

Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate [1] - Bearish: Fuel Oil [1] - Volatile: Equity Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum Oxide, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Ore, Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Black Metal, Soda Ash, Glass, Jiao Coal, Palm Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Soybean, Pulp, Log, Live Pig, Crude Oil, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Styrene, Urea, Propylene, PVC, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] Core Viewpoints - The market divergence is expected to gradually be digested during the index's volatile adjustment, and the index is expected to rise further with the emergence of new mainlines. The market adjustment provides an opportunity to lay out for the index's further upward movement next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned about interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as macro - economic conditions, supply - demand relationships, and cost supports, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [1]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial - Equity Index: Market divergence will be digested during adjustment, with potential for further upward movement. Central Huijin's support limits downside risk. Market adjustment provides a layout opportunity, and traders can build long positions during the adjustment and use the stock - index futures' discount structure to increase the probability of long - term investment success [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned by the central bank, suppressing the upward space [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: There is a risk of price decline after the digestion of short - term positive sentiment [1]. - Aluminum Oxide: Domestic production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and prices are under downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the price changes at the mine end [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - positive factors and with oversupply, there is a risk of price decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - Nickel: Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has risen, and the macro sentiment has improved. Indonesia's restrictions on nickel - related smelting projects have limited impact. Short - term nickel prices may fluctuate with the macro situation. It is recommended to go long at low levels in the short - term range, and the medium - to - long - term supply of nickel will remain in surplus [1]. - Stainless Steel: The macro sentiment has improved, and raw materials have stopped falling. The stainless - steel futures will fluctuate and rebound in the short term. Pay attention to the actual production situation of steel mills [1]. - Tin: After the digestion of macro - positive sentiment, due to the tense situation in Congo and the short - term supply not being restored, tin prices have strengthened. However, beware of the risk of short - term over - rise and fall. The medium - to - long - term outlook is bullish [1]. - Precious Metals: Gold may fluctuate within a range. Silver's short - term price will continue to fluctuate sharply. Platinum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. For palladium, the short - term strategy is to short at high levels, and the medium - term [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be held [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production is increasing while Southwest production is decreasing. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December are decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the medium - to - long - term. Terminal installations are increasing marginally in the fourth quarter. Large manufacturers are reluctant to sell and are strong in price support [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy - storage demand is strong. The supply side is resuming production and increasing output [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: The macro - driving force is increasing in December, providing some rebound momentum. After the futures price rises, it is beneficial for basis positive - arbitrage positions to enter. Do not chase high in single - side trading [1]. - Iron Ore: Direct demand is okay, with cost support, but supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound space is limited [1]. - Manganese Ore and Silicomanganese: The short - term production profit is poor, with cost support, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Supply and demand provide support, and the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and price fluctuations are strong [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, but with average supply and demand, there is great resistance to price increase [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the decline is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment may start around mid - December. For now, use a short - term strategy for single - side trading and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The impact of floods on production is limited, and the near - month inventory pressure is large. The domestic arrival in December is expected to be large, and the basis is expected to be weak [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to policies, planting intentions, weather, and demand in the peak season [1]. - Sugar: There is a consensus on short - selling due to global surplus and increased domestic supply. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short - term fundamentals [1]. - Soybean: China's purchases support the US market. Brazilian weather lacks obvious speculation themes, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - Pulp: There are cancellations of old warehouse receipts and registrations of new ones. The recovery of demand remains to be verified, and the short - term price will fluctuate [1]. - Log: The fundamental situation has weakened but has been priced in the market. The risk - reward ratio of short - selling after a sharp decline is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live Pig: The spot price is stabilizing, with demand support, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC + has suspended production increase until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is postponed, and the US has increased sanctions on Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC + policies, the Russia - Ukraine situation, and US sanctions [1]. - Asphalt: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The demand during the 14th Five - Year Plan may be falsified, and supply is sufficient. The profit is high [1]. - BR Rubber: The price support of butadiene is limited. Refinery overhauls may bring a positive expectation. High inventory restricts price increase, but the synthetic valuation is low [1]. - PTA: OPEC's production increase has slowed down, and there are positive factors such as domestic PTA export improvement [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory is increasing, prices are falling, and cost support is weakening [1]. - Short Fiber: The price follows cost closely, and the basis has strengthened [1]. - Styrene: The cost support is weakening due to factors such as weak Asian benzene prices and reduced US gasoline demand [1]. - Urea: There is limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from cost and anti - dumping [1]. - Propylene: Supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, but cost support is strong [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weakening [1]. - Caustic Soda: There are factors such as delivery from Guangxi alumina plants, high - load operation, and potential squeezing risks [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas market returns to a loose fundamental situation. The CP/FEI has rebounded. The price will fluctuate within a range after a decline [1].

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 01 contract rising 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. Supply and demand face greater inventory accumulation expectations in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains. Focus on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuelan geopolitical risk [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals rose. As several Fed officials advocated a December rate cut, the implied rate cut probability in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated. LME copper rose with precious metals at the end of the session. The domestic spot market has a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 0.8 million tons on Monday. The aluminum price may continue to adjust, with support around 21,100 yuan [4] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It will operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it will continue to follow the aluminum price, with the possibility of a narrowing spread with AL [6] Zinc - Domestic and overseas mine TC continued to decline. SHFE zinc oscillated in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The external demand supports zinc consumption, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken [7] Lead - SHFE lead oscillated in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded, and stainless steel inventory decreased. However, the short-term contradiction lies in the macro level, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9] Tin - LME tin closed higher, and SHFE tin oscillated at high levels. It is still advisable to short, and at the same time, match with out-of-the-money call options to hedge risks [10] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower. The market is highly divergent, and risk control should be prioritized [11] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak. The futures price will maintain an oscillating pattern [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. It will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly overnight. The fundamentals are marginally looser, and the price is expected to oscillate [15] Coke - The coke price oscillated. It may oscillate weakly [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated weakly. It may oscillate weakly [17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated. The bottom support is expected to move down [18] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22] Group 2: Chemicals Urea - Urea supply remains sufficient. The market may return to a stalemate [23] Methanol - The methanol futures rose sharply. It is advisable to try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices [24] Pure Benzene - It is advisable to continue the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [25] Styrene - The supply and demand of styrene are in a tight balance, but the support from the cost and demand sides is questionable [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market lacks guidance. Polyethylene supply pressure increases, and polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may follow the cost. Caustic soda will operate weakly [28] PX and PTA - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production. PTA is driven by cost [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has a short-term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip is cost-driven [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Niña on South American soybean production [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate in the short term. Palm oil is weaker [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on Australian seeds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [37] Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38] Corn - The corn futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39] Live Hogs - The far-month hog futures rose, and the near-month is weak. The price may form a double bottom [40] Eggs - The number of newly laid hens is expected to decrease in December. Pay attention to the spot price [41] Cotton - The cotton futures may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [42] Sugar - The international sugar supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the production in India, Thailand, and Guangxi [43] Apples - The apple futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory removal [44] Wood - The wood futures oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see [45] Pulp - The pulp futures fell slightly. It is advisable to wait and see [46] Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - A-shares rose in a shrinking volume. The short-term macro liquidity is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [47] Treasury Bond Futures - The treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly [48] Group 5: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European route index rose sharply. The 02 contract may maintain a discount [20]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name: Commodity Term Structure Simulation Portfolio** - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the roll yield factor to depict the contango and backwardation states of commodities, dynamically going long on commodities with high roll yields and shorting those with low roll yields[23][24] - **Model Construction Process**: - Identify the roll yield factor to determine the contango and backwardation states of commodities - Dynamically adjust the portfolio to go long on commodities with high roll yields and short on those with low roll yields - The portfolio's latest holdings are mainly long agricultural products and industrial metals, and short energy and chemical products[23][24][30] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown strong performance, achieving a new high since 2010[23][28] 2. **Model Name: Commodity Time Series Momentum Simulation Portfolio** - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses multiple technical indicators to depict the medium and long-term trends of domestic commodities, dynamically going long on assets with upward trends and shorting those with downward trends[23][24] - **Model Construction Process**: - Use technical indicators to identify medium and long-term trends in commodities - Dynamically adjust the portfolio to go long on assets with upward trends and short on those with downward trends - The latest holdings are mainly long industrial metals and short energy and agricultural products[33][36] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown mixed performance, with some recent gains but an overall decline for the year[33][34] 3. **Model Name: Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Simulation Portfolio** - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the inventory factor to depict changes in the fundamentals of domestic commodities, dynamically going long on assets with decreasing inventories and shorting those with increasing inventories[23][24] - **Model Construction Process**: - Identify the inventory factor to determine changes in commodity fundamentals - Dynamically adjust the portfolio to go long on assets with decreasing inventories and short on those with increasing inventories - The latest holdings are mainly long industrial metals and agricultural products, and short energy and chemical products[37][40][42] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown strong performance, achieving a new high since 2010[37][38] Model Backtesting Results 1. **Commodity Term Structure Simulation Portfolio** - **Recent Two-Week Return**: 0.90%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 6.44%[28] - **Top Contributors**: Methanol (0.34%), Palm Oil (0.22%), Polypropylene (0.14%)[30] - **Top Detractors**: Copper (-0.09%), Rapeseed Oil (-0.10%), Soybean Meal (-0.20%)[30] 2. **Commodity Time Series Momentum Simulation Portfolio** - **Recent Two-Week Return**: 0.47%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: -2.66%[33] - **Top Contributors**: Methanol (0.29%), Aluminum (0.21%), Palm Oil (0.16%)[33] - **Top Detractors**: PTA (-0.06%), Copper (-0.08%), Hot Rolled Coil (-0.09%)[33] 3. **Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Simulation Portfolio** - **Recent Two-Week Return**: 0.34%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 5.90%[37] - **Top Contributors**: Aluminum (0.30%), Polypropylene (0.29%), Polyethylene (0.28%)[40] - **Top Detractors**: Rubber (-0.18%), Zinc (-0.24%), Methanol (-0.35%)[40]