【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属上涨。随着多位美联储官员表态主张12月降息，利率市场隐含降息概率升至80%。 俄乌 相关方围绕美方提出的和平计划展开讨论和博弈。市场不确定性依然较强,贵金属高位震荡等待方 向性突破。 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【铜】 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 隔夜铜价震荡，伦铜尾盘随贵金属走高，另一联储官员表达侧重就业的降息态度，两市铜价暂时在 MA40日均线存在韧性支撑。国内铜精矿加工费长单谈判备受关注。交割换月后,沪粤延续升水,分 别在85、125元，倾向国内现货端有一定看涨情绪，货源较集中。SMM社库减少1.39万吨在18.06万 吨。前期少量高位空单被动止盈位置从8.7万下调到8.65万。 【铝】 (原油) 隔夜国际油价反弹,布伦特01合约涨1.41%。俄乌地缘风险再次陷入制裁现实与和谈预期的纠葛, 一方面上周五美国对俄两油制裁正式生效,印度炼厂进一步规避俄油采购的行为已经发生,另一方 面本周四最后期限前美鸟就和平计划的谈判仍有不确定性。供需方面四季度、明年一季度市场仍面 临更大的累库预期,油价下行驱动仍在,本周重点关注俄乌和平方案谈判进展及委内地缘风险的犹 动。 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name: Commodity Term Structure Simulation Portfolio** - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the roll yield factor to depict the contango and backwardation states of commodities, dynamically going long on commodities with high roll yields and shorting those with low roll yields[23][24] - **Model Construction Process**: - Identify the roll yield factor to determine the contango and backwardation states of commodities - Dynamically adjust the portfolio to go long on commodities with high roll yields and short on those with low roll yields - The portfolio's latest holdings are mainly long agricultural products and industrial metals, and short energy and chemical products[23][24][30] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown strong performance, achieving a new high since 2010[23][28] 2. **Model Name: Commodity Time Series Momentum Simulation Portfolio** - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses multiple technical indicators to depict the medium and long-term trends of domestic commodities, dynamically going long on assets with upward trends and shorting those with downward trends[23][24] - **Model Construction Process**: - Use technical indicators to identify medium and long-term trends in commodities - Dynamically adjust the portfolio to go long on assets with upward trends and short on those with downward trends - The latest holdings are mainly long industrial metals and short energy and agricultural products[33][36] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown mixed performance, with some recent gains but an overall decline for the year[33][34] 3. **Model Name: Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Simulation Portfolio** - **Model Construction Idea**: The model is based on the inventory factor to depict changes in the fundamentals of domestic commodities, dynamically going long on assets with decreasing inventories and shorting those with increasing inventories[23][24] - **Model Construction Process**: - Identify the inventory factor to determine changes in commodity fundamentals - Dynamically adjust the portfolio to go long on assets with decreasing inventories and short on those with increasing inventories - The latest holdings are mainly long industrial metals and agricultural products, and short energy and chemical products[37][40][42] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown strong performance, achieving a new high since 2010[37][38] Model Backtesting Results 1. **Commodity Term Structure Simulation Portfolio** - **Recent Two-Week Return**: 0.90%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 6.44%[28] - **Top Contributors**: Methanol (0.34%), Palm Oil (0.22%), Polypropylene (0.14%)[30] - **Top Detractors**: Copper (-0.09%), Rapeseed Oil (-0.10%), Soybean Meal (-0.20%)[30] 2. **Commodity Time Series Momentum Simulation Portfolio** - **Recent Two-Week Return**: 0.47%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: -2.66%[33] - **Top Contributors**: Methanol (0.29%), Aluminum (0.21%), Palm Oil (0.16%)[33] - **Top Detractors**: PTA (-0.06%), Copper (-0.08%), Hot Rolled Coil (-0.09%)[33] 3. **Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Simulation Portfolio** - **Recent Two-Week Return**: 0.34%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 5.90%[37] - **Top Contributors**: Aluminum (0.30%), Polypropylene (0.29%), Polyethylene (0.28%)[40] - **Top Detractors**: Rubber (-0.18%), Zinc (-0.24%), Methanol (-0.35%)[40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weak oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Range operation [6] - Palm oil: Range operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range operation [6] - Soybean meal: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [8] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Report's Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and black prices are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, and the coal and coke market is affected by policies and supply concerns. The steel market's price stop depends on production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market has inventory pressure and weak demand. The financial market has different trends for various indexes, and the precious metal market is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases and geopolitical risks. The light industry and agricultural product markets have their own supply and demand characteristics, and the soft commodity and polyester markets also face different situations [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The main line is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation." The supply has room for impulse, and the demand is weak due to the low level of real estate new construction. Follow-up attention should be paid to four main lines that may trigger price revaluation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Driven by multiple news, the price has risen. The market is concerned about demand-side policies, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit level of steel mills [2] - Rolled steel: The price is affected by the demand for steel, and the stop of the decline depends on production cuts and policy implementation [2] - Glass: There are contradictions in the market, with weak demand and increasing inventory pressure. The solution depends on reducing the daily melting volume and the support of policies [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: Different indexes have different trends, and the market is short-term consolidated with increasing bullish sentiment [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market has a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [4] Light Industry - Logs: The supply is increasing seasonally, while the demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Pulp: The cost support is weakening, and the demand is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: There is supply pressure, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oil and Fat - Oils: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The overall is expected to continue range operation [6] - Meal: Supported by trade optimism and the rise of US soybean futures, it is expected to rebound in the short term [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The trading average weight may increase slightly, and the settlement price may rise. The market is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [8] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is improving. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [10] - PX: The trade dispute risk is weakening, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost support is weakened, and the supply and demand are marginally improved. The price follows the cost [10] - MEG: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is worrying. The price is suppressed by the inventory pressure [10] - PR: The market may oscillate weakly [10] - PF: The market may be sorted narrowly [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebound [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Uptrend [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Logs: Weak oscillation [4] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [4] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [4] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [4] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [4] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [4] - Soybean meal: Rebound [4] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [4] - No. 2 soybeans: Rebound [6] - No. 1 soybeans: Rebound [6] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [6] - Rubber: Oscillation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Oscillation [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The Fed's rate cut and Sino-US talks this week help boost risk appetite, with a warm macro atmosphere leading to a rebound in commodity prices at low levels [2][3][4][8] - The iron ore market remains in a pattern of loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation, and the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse [2] - The coking coal and coke market focuses on whether demand-side policies will be introduced, and the core contradiction lies in the extremely low profit level of steel mills [2] - The steel market's price stop depends on the strict implementation of a production cut of over 5% in Q4 2025 and the intensity of anti-"involution" policies [2] - The glass market has a large inventory accumulation pressure, and the demand is weak overall [2] - The stock index market has a short-term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [3] - The Treasury bond market has a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [3] - The gold market is affected by central bank gold purchases, debt issues in the US, and geopolitical risks, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] - The log market has a supply increase and a demand decrease, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4] - The pulp market has a weak cost support and poor demand, and the price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [4] - The edible oil market has a sufficient supply and weak demand, and it is expected to continue range-bound operation [4] - The meal market is boosted by trade optimism and US soybean prices, and it is expected to rebound in the short term [4][6] - The live pig market has a slight increase in the average trading weight, and the price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [6] - The rubber market has a decrease in inventory, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [8] - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets have different supply and demand situations and are affected by factors such as oil prices and costs, with different investment suggestions [8] Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: The main line is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation", and the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse. Follow four main lines to monitor potential price revaluation [2] - Coking coal and coke: The market focuses on demand-side policies, and the core contradiction is the low profit of steel mills. Coke has started the third round of price increases [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: The static valuation is low, and the core lies in steel demand. The price stop depends on production cuts and policy implementation [2] - Glass: There are contradictions in the market, with high inventory accumulation pressure and weak demand. The daily melting volume needs to be reduced to solve the overcapacity [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The market has a short-term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [3] - Treasury bonds: The market has a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [3] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is shifting, and it is affected by central bank purchases, debt issues, and geopolitical risks. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Light Industry - Logs: The supply increases seasonally, and the demand decreases as the downstream enters the off-season. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [4] - Pulp: The cost support is weak, and the demand is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [4] - Double-offset paper: The supply pressure exists, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [4] Oils and Fats - Oils: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue range-bound operation [4] - Meals: The market is boosted by trade optimism and US soybean prices, and it is expected to rebound in the short term [4][6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight increases slightly, and the price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend due to factors such as demand and supply [6] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The inventory decreases, and the price is expected to oscillate widely due to factors such as production and demand [8] Polyester - PX: The supply and demand have pressure, and the price follows oil prices [8] - PTA: The cost support is weakened, and the supply and demand marginally weaken. The price follows costs [8] - MEG: The supply is at a high level, and the future supply and demand are expected to be in surplus. The price is suppressed by inventory pressure [8] - PR: The cost is boosted by macro news, and the price may rise slightly [8] - PF: The market is expected to be sorted warmly due to downstream demand and policy support [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - The short - term outlook for the stock index is expected to be volatile. As the negative factors of trade frictions gradually ease, the stock index is expected to return to the upward channel. Even if short - term macro uncertainties increase, the adjustment space of the stock index is expected to be limited. The strategy is to go long on the stock index when opportunities arise [1]. - Different commodities have different trends. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be strong, and some are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations [1]. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term volatility, expected to return to the upward channel later, with limited adjustment space. Strategy: go long when opportunities arise [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Volatile. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - **Gold**: Short - term wide - range volatility. Geopolitical uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts support the price, but the new round of Sino - US consultations limit the rise [1]. - **Silver**: Volatile in the short - term, and the physical situation in London needs to be monitored [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term price fluctuations are intensified, but with continuous supply disturbances and an increasing Fed rate - cut expectation, it is expected to be strong [1]. - **Alumina**: With production still profitable, domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released, and production and inventory are increasing. The spot price is under pressure, and cost support needs attention [1]. - **Zinc**: After a short - term rebound, the export window closes again. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and changes in domestic and foreign inventories need attention [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term volatility is mainly influenced by the macro situation and may be strong, but high inventory still suppresses the price. Suggestion: short - term low - buying within the range, and there is still pressure from long - term excess of primary nickel [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro situation improves, and the trade friction eases. The stainless steel futures may rebound in the short - term. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices [1]. - **Tin**: Although the short - term impact of the Indonesian ore ban is not significant, the supply risk is high, and there is demand support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices in the long - term [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The industrial driving force is unclear, and the futures valuation is low. Directional trading is not recommended [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contract still has upward potential [1]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Direct demand is good, but supply is high, and inventory is at a high level. The price is under pressure and volatile [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Short - term production profit is poor, but cost support is strengthening, and direct demand is good. The price is expected to be volatile and the downward space is limited [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Follows the glass market, with a large supply - surplus pressure, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the price rebounded to fill the gap, it reached a relatively high level. It may challenge previous highs, but the breakthrough is difficult. It may be in a wide - range volatile market if there is no new policy on "anti - involution" [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia's plan to regulate exports is favorable for the far - month contract. The near - month contract lacks new drivers, and it is advisable to wait for the production area to reduce production and destock [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The pressure from US soybean prices and the support from domestic de - stocking expectations coexist. There is a lack of new drivers, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Canola Oil**: The negotiation on Canadian canola anti - dumping may bring negative news. The domestic canola is in short supply, and the inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and the inter - month positive spread is expected to rise [1]. - **Cotton**: There is uncertainty in new - year cotton demand. The downside space of the futures is limited, but the basis and the futures may be under pressure due to high production [1]. - **Sugar**: In the short - term, sugar prices are seasonally strong due to typhoon impacts and the gap between old and new crops. In the medium - term, the rebound space is limited after new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The current stage still focuses on the selling pressure in November. The C01 contract is expected to be in low - level volatility [1]. - **Methanol**: The MO1 contract is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see or go long in the short - term, and pay attention to Sino - US trade negotiations and South American weather [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is related to the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. With weak downstream demand, it is recommended to do a 11 - 1 reverse spread [1]. - **Logs**: The log fundamentals have declined, and the spot price is firm. It is advisable to wait and see after a sharp decline in the futures [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized, but the futures still have a premium. It is necessary to wait for changes in the slaughter volume and weight, and the short - term trend is volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Influenced by US sanctions on Russia, geopolitical tensions, and the US attitude towards China's tariffs [1]. - **Bitumen**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, following the trend of crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1]. - **SBS Rubber**: Supported by strong raw material costs, decreasing intermediate inventory, and a positive commodity market atmosphere [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost support is weak, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. Attention should be paid to inventory de - stocking [1]. - **PTA**: The price rebounds slightly due to factors such as a decline in domestic production caused by equipment inspections [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory in East China is low, the cost support is strengthening, and the polyester market has not declined significantly [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory equipment is gradually resuming operation, the basis is strengthening, and the price follows the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window to the US is closed, and domestic styrene plant inspections are increasing [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and domestic demand is insufficient. There is an upper limit to the price, but there is support from "anti - involution" and cost [1]. - **PE**: The price is volatile and slightly strong due to a slight downward adjustment in the crude oil price center, weakened inspection efforts, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1]. - **PP**: The inspection support is limited, the downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large, there are many near - month warehouse receipts, and the price is volatile and weak [1]. - **LPG**: There are problems such as planned alumina production in Guangxi, decreasing inspection concentration, and difficult digestion of warehouse receipts. The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic fundamentals are also loose [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Markets**: - Gold: Short - term price is in a volatile phase, with a risk of decline. [14][15] - U.S. Stock Index Futures: Market risk preference is expected to improve, but volatility remains high. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and buy on dips. [21] - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market has strengthened, but risks exist. It is recommended to take a cautious approach in short - term trading. [27][29] - Foreign Exchange Futures (USD Index): The USD is expected to be volatile in the short term. [18][19] - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices. [25] - **Commodity Markets**: - Agricultural Products: - Sugar: ICE raw sugar is not expected to continue to decline significantly. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and excessive short - selling is not recommended. [36][37] - Cotton: The upside of Zhengzhou cotton is limited, and it is under pressure in the short term. [41][42] - Soybean Meal: The price of soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile. [47] - Corn Starch: The price difference between rice and flour may be repaired when approaching delivery. [51] - Red Dates: It is recommended to wait and see before the red dates are harvested and priced. [54] - Corn: The 11 - contract is expected to decline, and the 01 - contract should be approached with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish strategy. [55] - Black Metals: - Rebar/HRC: Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and a volatile approach is recommended. [45][46] - Coking Coal/Coke: The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed. [49][50] - Non - ferrous Metals: - Copper: The price of copper is expected to be volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips for mid - term long positions. [57][58] - Polysilicon: It is expected that the spot price will remain flat in October. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and attention should be paid to buying on dips when the price is at a discount to the spot. [61][62] - Industrial Silicon: It is more cost - effective to buy on dips. [64] - Lead: Unilateral trading should be observed with a volatile perspective, and mid - term positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets can be considered. [65][66] - Zinc: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to mid - term positive spreads for arbitrage. [68] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term trading should be range - bound, and mid - term short - selling opportunities should be considered after the peak demand season. [69][70] - Nickel: It is recommended for the allocation portfolio to buy mid - to long - term long positions on dips, and for the speculative portfolio to consider selling near - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls. [72][73] - Energy Chemicals: - Carbon Emissions: CEA is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term. [74][75] - Crude Oil: The price of crude oil is expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term. [75][76] - Methanol: It is recommended to wait and see. [77][78] - PVC: The price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and the downside space is limited. [80] - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda futures is expected to be weak in the short term. [82] - Bottle Chips: The supply - demand contradiction may accumulate in the fourth quarter, and there is pressure on the processing fee. [85] - Urea: It is not recommended to be overly bearish when the 2601 contract falls below 1600 yuan/ton. [88] - Soda Ash: A mid - term strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended, and attention should be paid to the progress of new capacity. [90] - Float Glass: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of long glass and short soda ash when the spread widens. [92] - Shipping Index: For the 12 - contract, continue to pay attention to low - buying opportunities, and pay attention to risk management due to geopolitical disturbances. [94][95] 3. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - **News**: Trump met with Zelensky, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange raised the margin for precious metals. [13][14] - **Comment**: Gold prices fluctuated sharply on Friday, reaching a new high before falling back. The market's bullish sentiment cooled down, and profit - taking occurred. Short - term gold is overbought, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline. [14] - **Investment Advice**: Gold prices will enter a volatile phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of decline. [15] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - USD Index) - **News**: The Bank of Japan's governor did not disclose whether to raise interest rates before the October policy meeting. The ECB's Lagarde advocated a unified approach to Russian assets. Trump urged Zelensky to accept a cease - fire. [16][17] - **Comment**: Trump pressured Ukraine to end the conflict, but a cease - fire along the current front line faces significant resistance. The USD is expected to be volatile in the short term. [18] - **Investment Advice**: The USD is expected to be volatile in the short term. [19] 1.3 Macro Strategy (U.S. Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Trump signed an executive order to impose tariffs on imported trucks, and Fed's Musalem supported a rate cut in October. [20][21] - **Comment**: With the start of the earnings season, the profit forecast of U.S. stocks has been revised upwards, and the risk of regional banks has not further spread. The Sino - U.S. negotiation situation has improved marginally, which is positive for risk assets. U.S. stocks may continue to recover their previous losses next week. [21] - **Investment Advice**: It is expected that market risk preference will continue to improve, but volatility remains high. A bullish approach should be taken, and buying on dips is recommended. [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Vice - Premier He Lifeng held a video call with U.S. officials, and the Ministry of Finance announced measures to consolidate economic recovery. [22][23] - **Comment**: Tariff escalation has a long - tail effect. Next week, attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - U.S. negotiations and the Fourth Plenary Session. Stock indices are in a high - level volatile pattern. [24][25] - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to allocate evenly among various stock indices. [25] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit, and the central bank conducted 164.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases. [26][27] - **Comment**: The bond market has strengthened as expected, but risks exist. It is recommended to realize the floating profits of some unilateral trading positions next week. [27] - **Investment Advice**: A cautious approach is recommended for short - term trading. [29] 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - **News**: The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 42nd week was 2.1662 million tons, and the expected volume in the 43rd week is 2.3335 million tons. [30] - **Comment**: The palm oil market lacks a clear driver, and the soybean oil market lacks data and policy guidance and continues to fluctuate. [30] - **Investment Advice**: For palm oil, pay attention to production, inventory, and replenishment in India. A long - allocation approach is recommended. Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate, and rapeseed oil is recommended to be observed. [30][31] 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - **News**: The Philippines suspended sugar imports until the end of the 2025/26 season. China's cumulative sugar imports in the 2024/25 season were 4.63 million tons. The number of sugar - carrying ships in Brazilian ports increased to 90. Brazilian sugar production in the second half of September was 3.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.8%. [32][33][34][35] - **Comment**: Brazilian sugar production is strong, but the sugar - making ratio has declined for three consecutive weeks, indicating that sugar mills are more willing to produce ethanol. ICE raw sugar is not expected to continue to decline significantly. [36] - **Investment Advice**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and excessive short - selling is not recommended. [37] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - **News**: The cumulative public inspection of Xinjiang cotton was 560,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 124%. India's cotton production and imports were adjusted. Cotton prices stabilized, and the downstream market was weak. [38][39][40] - **Comment**: The purchase price of Xinjiang seed cotton is stable, which supports Zhengzhou cotton. However, the pressure of hedging and weak downstream demand limit the upside. [41] - **Investment Advice**: The upside of Zhengzhou cotton is limited, and it is under pressure in the short term. [42] 2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/HRC) - **News**: China's shipbuilding indicators ranked first globally in the first three quarters. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 2.4095 million tons. [44][45] - **Comment**: The inventory of five major steel products has declined, but the absolute inventory is still high. The demand for building materials is weak, and the supply pressure of finished steel exists. Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak. [45] - **Investment Advice**: A volatile approach is recommended for steel prices in the short term. [46] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - **News**: The soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills is expected to increase. [47] - **Comment**: The U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of data. The domestic supply of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, and the inventory of soybean meal is high. [47] - **Investment Advice**: The price of soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile. [47] 2.6 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - **News**: The price of coking coal in the Changzhi market is stable. [48][49] - **Comment**: The production of coking coal is normal, and the demand for replenishment exists. The price of coking coal is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed. [49] - **Investment Advice**: The price of coking coal is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the short term, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed. [50] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - **News**: The operating rate of starch sugar products has increased slightly after the holiday. [51] - **Comment**: The theoretical profit of starch enterprises has improved, and the operating rate has increased, and the inventory has accumulated seasonally. The price difference between rice and flour may be repaired when approaching delivery. [51] - **Investment Advice**: The price difference between rice and flour may be repaired when approaching delivery. [51] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - **News**: The price of red dates in the Hebei Cuierzhuang market fluctuated slightly. [52] - **Comment**: The futures price of red dates rose, and the supply is about to enter the harvesting period, while the demand is weak. [53][54] - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to wait and see before the red dates are harvested and priced. [54] 2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn) - **News**: The inventory of major corn processing enterprises increased by 5.48%. [55] - **Comment**: The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has entered the seasonal increase stage. The spot price is expected to be weak and volatile, and the futures price is expected to follow the decline. [55] - **Investment Advice**: The 11 - contract is expected to decline, and the 01 - contract should be approached with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish strategy. [55] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: Codelco raised the copper premium in Europe in 2026 to a record high. Zijin Mining's net profit in the third quarter increased by 52.25% year - on - year. [56][57] - **Comment**: The market will focus on Sino - U.S. trade negotiations and U.S. inflation data. The macro factors may cause short - term fluctuations in copper prices. The domestic and LME inventories show different trends. The price of copper is expected to be volatile. [57][58] - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips for mid - term long positions. Arbitrage should be observed. [58] 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - **News**: Hebei plans to adjust the time - of - use electricity price. The price of polysilicon products is stable, and the demand is weakening at the end of October. [59][60][61] - **Comment**: The price of polysilicon is expected to be flat. Although there are many negative factors in the fundamentals, the upstream has no obvious inventory pressure, and production restrictions and sales restrictions are still being implemented. [61] - **Investment Advice**: It is expected that the spot price will remain flat in October. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and attention should be paid to buying on dips when the price is at a discount to the spot. [62] 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - **News**: The operating rate of silicon enterprises in Xinjiang has increased, while that in the south has decreased. The social inventory has increased. [63][64] - **Comment**: The fundamentals are weakening, and the price is under pressure. However, the price needs to break through 10,000 yuan/ton to increase supply significantly. Buying on dips is more cost - effective. [64] - **Investment Advice**: Buying on dips is more cost - effective. [64] 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: The LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $44.99/ton on October 16. [65] - **Comment**: The prices of domestic and LME lead showed different trends last week. The supply of primary and secondary lead is expected to recover. The inventory of lead ingots has increased, but the short - term supply - demand mismatch may continue. The internal - external price ratio is expected to return. [65] - **Investment Advice**: Unilateral trading should be observed with a volatile perspective, and mid - term positive spreads between domestic and foreign markets can be considered. [66] 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $137.2/ton on October 16. Bolivia's zinc concentrate production decreased in 2025, while Peru's increased in August. [67][68] - **Comment**: The high premium of LME zinc has stimulated a small amount of overseas warehousing, and the zinc ingot export window has opened briefly. The global low - inventory situation is difficult to improve. The price of Shanghai zinc is expected to be volatile, and the price difference may turn positive. [68] - **Investment Advice**: It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to mid - term positive spreads for arbitrage. Positive - spread positions should be closed in batches on dips. [68] 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, reached the standard. [69] - **Comment**: The inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased, which supports the price. The price may be supported by the de - stocking in the peak season, but further upward momentum depends on supply disruptions. [69] - **Investment Advice**: Short - term trading should be range - bound, and mid - term short - selling opportunities should be considered after the peak demand season. [70] 2

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for some commodities are as follows: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks [1]. - Gold is supported to remain at a high level due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade uncertainty, and the Fed's expected rate cut in October, but short - term high - level volatility risks should be noted. Silver price has risen and then fallen again, with increased short - term high - level volatility risks [1]. - Although global trade frictions suppress copper prices, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to ongoing disturbances in copper mine supply and improved domestic and foreign macro - liquidity [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and its price is expected to fluctuate. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and its fundamentals are weak, pressuring the spot price [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces correction risks due to Sino - US trade frictions. Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, nickel prices are affected by macro factors in the short term, and stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, policies, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends of fluctuation [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are also affected by multiple factors including production, trade policies, and market demand, with different price trends [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong - side fluctuation, beware of tariff policy changes, focus on the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank reminds of interest - rate risks [1] - Gold: Supported at a high level, short - term high - level volatility risks [1] - Silver: Short - term high - level volatility risks increased, expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1] - Electrolytic aluminum: Mixed fundamentals, price to fluctuate [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, price under pressure, focus on cost support [1] - Zinc: Short - term pressure, support if export window opens [1] - Nickel: Short - term macro - driven fluctuation, high - inventory suppression exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term fluctuation, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1] - Tin: Long - term low - buying opportunities, short - term facing callback risks [1] - Industrial silicon: Southwest in the wet season, northwest resuming production [1] - Polysilicon: Production increase in October, supply - demand imbalance [1] - Lithium carbonate: High demand in new energy fields [1] Black metals - Rebar: Lack of clear industrial drivers, low valuation, not recommended for directional trading [1] - Iron ore: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - Glass: Supply surplus, price under pressure [1] - Soda ash: Follow glass, price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: Price bottom - finding not over, temporarily wait and see [1] - Coke: Similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Near - month contracts lack new drivers, wait for production - reduction and inventory - clearance cycle [1] - Soybean oil: Cost pressure and de - inventory expectation coexist, wait and see [1] - Rapeseed oil: Possible negative speculation, unilateral wait - and - see, inter - month positive spread expected to rise [1] - Cotton: Short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term pressure with new cotton listing [1] - Sugar: High sugar - making ratio may be adjusted, limited upside space [1] - Corn: Short - term limited rebound, pay attention to grain sales [1] - Ethanol: Tax - included ethanol close to raw sugar price, sugar - making advantage weakened [1] - Logs: Fundamentals declined, wait and see [1] - Live pigs: Supply increase, price outlook weak [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and demand decline [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish, follow crude oil in the short term [1] - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, demand may be over - estimated [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by trade policies and supply increase [1] - BR rubber: Supply is loose, downstream demand is weak [1] - PTA: Production decline due to plant maintenance [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory, but price under pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices returning, price - related changes in delivery willingness [1] - Urea: Limited upside space, cost - end support [1] - PVC: Supply pressure, price to fluctuate weakly [1] - Alumina: Short - term price bearish, medium - term bullish [1] - LPG: Suppressed by supply and demand factors [1] - Container shipping: Possible low - level rebound [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US officially imposed restrictions such as port fees on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors. China strongly opposed this and announced counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd., highlighting China's determination to counter in key areas [7]. - For LPG, the price of domestic propane at the cost of arrival (tax - included) is basically below 4,000 yuan/ton. The demand has increased significantly, but it has not rebounded under speculative demand. The short - term pattern of strong domestic and weak foreign is clear, which is bullish for the long - short spread on the futures market, but the impact of Sino - US trade disputes and crude oil price trends should be noted [9][10]. - For cotton, the short - term trend is stable. Before mid - November, attention should be paid to the development of international economic and trade situations. The short - term trend of cotton futures is expected to be weakly volatile [11]. - For the container shipping index (European line), it will be volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to the change in shipping capacity in November. The recent sharp rise was affected by China's counter - measures against Hanwha Ocean, but it has no substantial impact on the European line. The fundamentals show that most shipping companies are expected to be fully loaded in week 43, and the no - show rate needs further observation [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Products - **Gold**: Continues to reach new highs. The Fed Chairman Powell hinted at another interest rate cut and that the balance - sheet reduction is nearing the end, which is favorable for gold prices [21]. - **Silver**: The contradiction in the spot market has eased, and the price has risen and then fallen [21]. - **Copper**: The market is cautious, and the price is volatile. The production of Codelco in Chile has decreased, and China's copper imports in September have shown different trends [25][27]. - **Zinc**: The trend is weakly volatile. The Fed's attitude towards interest rates affects the market, and inventory and price data show certain changes [28]. - **Lead**: The inventory has increased, and the price is under pressure. The Fed's interest - rate policy also has an impact on the lead market [31]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to the macro - impact. The price of tin has declined, and inventory and price differences have changed [34]. - **Aluminum**: Ranges within a certain interval. Alumina's price center moves down, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed [38]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has turned bearish, and the nickel price is oscillating at a low level. Stainless steel is under pressure from both the macro - environment and the actual situation, but the cost limits the downward space [41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is improving, and the warehouse receipts are being cleared. The short - term trend is relatively strong [44]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand pattern is weak [47]. - **Polysilicon**: Meetings are being held this week, and the futures market is expected to rise [48]. 3.2 Building Materials and Energy - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuates widely. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed, and relevant policies have an impact on the market [52]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The current situation is weak, and the expectation has also weakened. Steel prices may decline slightly [54]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: The quotations in the main production areas are unstable, and the prices fluctuate widely. The prices of manganese ore at ports have moved down [58]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The expectations are fluctuating, and the prices fluctuate widely. Market data such as inventory and price differences have changed [61][62]. - **Log**: The price oscillates repeatedly [64]. 3.3 Chemical Products - **Para - Xylene and PTA**: The medium - term trend remains weak [17]. - **MEG**: The spread between January and May contracts is in a reverse - arbitrage situation [17]. - **Rubber**: The price oscillates [17]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The trend is weak [17]. - **Asphalt**: The price has declined following the oil price [17]. - **LLDPE and PP**: The trends are weak [17]. - **Caustic Soda**: Do not short in the short term [17]. - **Pulp**: The price oscillates [17]. - **Glass**: The price of raw glass is stable [17]. - **Methanol**: The price is under pressure and oscillates [17]. - **Urea**: The short - term trend is oscillating, and the medium - term trend is under pressure [17]. - **Styrene**: Stop loss on short positions [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has not changed much [17]. 3.4 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The driving force from the origin is limited. Attention should be paid to the support at the lower level [20]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price moves within a certain range. Attention should be paid to Sino - US economic and trade relations [20]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: The trade concerns have resurfaced, and the prices may rebound and oscillate [20]. - **Corn**: The price has rebounded [20]. - **Sugar**: The price oscillates within a certain range [20]. - **Egg**: The price oscillates [20]. - **Live Pig**: The bottom of the spot price has not been reached [20]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward indicators in various sectors, including consumer behavior, production, and trade dynamics, while also addressing the impact of external factors such as tariffs and commodity prices [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Durable goods consumption shows a recovery in retail sales of passenger cars, with a year-on-year growth of 6% in September compared to 3% in August [2][15]. - The OECD composite leading indicator for G7 countries rose to 100.49 in September, indicating a continued recovery in external demand [3][24]. - The macroeconomic activity index from Huachuang Securities declined to 6.26% as of October 5, down from 6.65% the previous week [3][9]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The real estate market is experiencing a significant decline, with a 33% year-on-year drop in residential property sales in 67 cities during the first ten days of October, compared to a 1.2% decline in September [3][15]. - Non-durable goods consumption growth has slowed, with express delivery volume growth dropping to 4.5% as of October 5, down from 12% in the previous month [3][15]. - Service consumption, particularly subway ridership, has turned negative, with a 4.8% decline in the first ten days of October compared to a 3.8% increase in September [3][13]. Group 3: Production and Trade - The apparent consumption of rebar remains weaker than the previous year, with a 10% year-on-year decline as of October 9 [3][17]. - The OECD leading indicator for external demand continues to rise, suggesting potential improvements in trade dynamics, although direct trade with the U.S. is showing signs of decline [3][24]. - The prices of gold and copper have increased, with gold reaching $3986.2 per ounce (up 2.7%) and copper at $10,765 per ton (up 1.9%) [4][38]. Group 4: Policy and Financial Environment - Long-term bond yields have decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.8206%, down 3.99 basis points from September 30 [5][57]. - Recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations indicate an escalation in tariff tensions, with a proposed 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting November 1 [4][26]. - New policy measures are being implemented to support various industries, particularly in the non-ferrous sector, with recommendations for price adjustments to alleviate industry losses [4][22].