螺纹 2510
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宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250715
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 01:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is dominated by expectations, and steel prices have stabilized during the off - season. For the rebar 2510, in the short - term, it is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend; in the medium - term, it will oscillate; and intraday, it will be oscillating with a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. Although production has declined and demand is weak, the low inventory situation limits industrial contradictions, the strong raw materials provide cost support, and the policy利好 expectations are fermenting. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel prices will continue the oscillating and stabilizing trend, and the implementation of policies should be closely monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the rebar 2510, the short - term trend is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating with a slight downward trend. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that expectations dominate the steel market and steel prices stabilize during the off - season [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, and rebar production has declined again, but the decline is limited and the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the supply pressure relief is limited. The rebar demand is seasonally weakening, with weekly performance decreasing month - on - month and high - frequency transactions also shrinking, remaining at a low level in recent years. The downstream industries have not improved, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged, still putting pressure on steel prices [3]. - Currently, although the rebar fundamentals are seasonally weak and steel prices are still prone to pressure during the off - season, the low inventory situation limits industrial contradictions. The strong raw materials provide cost support, and the policy利好 expectations are fermenting. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel prices will continue the oscillating and stabilizing trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [3].
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250625
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 02:16
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation shows seasonal weakness, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is operating weakly. Supply has increased slightly while demand continues its seasonal weakness. The supply - demand situation has not improved. Steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. With relatively low inventory and minor real - world contradictions, the price trend is expected to remain in a volatile bottom - seeking state, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [3]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are judged as volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the fundamental seasonal weakness causing steel prices to be under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Construction steel mills have increased production, and rebar output has risen again, but the increase is not large. Demand remains weak, with the weekly apparent demand slightly decreasing and high - frequency transactions remaining sluggish. The supply - demand situation has not improved, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively low inventory means minor real - world contradictions, and the price is expected to be in a volatile bottom - seeking state, with demand performance being a key factor [3].
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250529
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 13:26
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of Rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are running weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Rebar 2510, short - term: weak oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: weak oscillation. The view is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic of accumulated fundamental contradictions and weak steel price operation. The calculation of price change amplitude is based on the closing price of night trading (for varieties with night trading) or yesterday's closing price (for varieties without night trading) as the starting price and the closing price of the day's daytime session as the ending price. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% a weak oscillation, a rise of 0 - 1% a strong oscillation, and a rise of more than 1% an increase. Strong/weak oscillation only applies to intraday views [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar are weak. Construction steel mills are actively producing, and supply has continued to rise and is at a high level this year. Demand has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing month - on - month, high - frequency transactions being sluggish, and the seasonal weakening expectation remaining unchanged. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamental contradictions of rebar are accumulating, and steel prices will still be under pressure. Coupled with weak market sentiment, steel prices will maintain a weak operation trend. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3].
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250523
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 01:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed. With increasing supply and weakening demand, the fundamental contradiction of rebar is accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure. However, the continuous reduction of low - level inventory is a positive factor. Under the game of long and short factors, steel prices continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened, and steel prices are oscillating to find the bottom [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply of rebar has continued to rise and reached a high level this year as construction steel mills are actively producing. In contrast, the weekly apparent demand has declined again and is at a low level in the same period in recent years, and it will seasonally weaken in the future. The demand is relatively weak. Under the situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, the fundamental contradiction of rebar is accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure. The positive factor is that the low - level inventory is continuously being destocked [3].
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250519
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 01:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively, with attention on the pressure at the MA20 line due to the weak and stable fundamentals and low - level oscillation of steel prices [2] - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is acceptable thanks to the demand recovery, but the demand is facing seasonal weakness. Under high supply, the fundamental contradictions of rebar will accumulate, and steel prices are still prone to downward pressure. The low inventory is a positive factor. Under the game of long and short factors, steel prices will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. The reference is to focus on the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is the weak and stable operation of the fundamentals and the low - level oscillation of steel prices [2] Market Driving Logic - The spot steel prices declined slightly over the weekend with average trading volume. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is acceptable due to demand recovery, but the demand is seasonally weakening. Under high supply, fundamental contradictions will accumulate, and steel prices are under pressure. The low inventory is a positive factor. Steel prices will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand [3]
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250514
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 01:59
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "weak oscillation" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is stable, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2] - The steel futures price oscillates and rebounds with the warming of the commodity market sentiment. The supply - demand pattern of rebar runs stably, with the output decreasing month - on - month and demand weakening significantly under the influence of holidays. The fundamentals of rebar are difficult to improve substantially, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "weak oscillation" respectively. The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the stable supply - demand pattern and low - level oscillation of steel prices [2] Market Driving Logic - The sentiment in the commodity market has warmed up, leading to an oscillating rebound in steel futures prices. The supply of rebar has contracted with a month - on - month decrease in output, but its sustainability needs to be tracked. The demand has weakened significantly due to holiday factors and is expected to continue the seasonal decline. The fundamentals of rebar are difficult to improve substantially, and steel prices are under pressure. With low inventory and weak market sentiment, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and the demand performance should be monitored [3]
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250513
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 01:37
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2510 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that macro - level benefits have been realized, and steel prices are oscillating [2]. - The steel price is under pressure due to the weakening supply - demand pattern of rebar. Although the supply has contracted, it lacks sustainability, and the demand has weakened more significantly. Under the game of long and short factors, the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, in the short - term (within one week), medium - term (two weeks to one month), and intraday, the views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively. The reference is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, based on the fact that macro - level benefits have been realized and steel prices are oscillating [2]. Market Driving Logic - The Sino - US trade negotiation has made substantial progress, and market sentiment has improved, leading to a collective rebound of ferrous metals. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakening. Supply contraction lacks sustainability, demand is weakening more significantly, and inventory has started to accumulate. The demand for rebar will seasonally decline, and the fundamentals are difficult to improve substantially, so the steel price is under pressure and will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the demand situation [3].
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250512
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 02:32
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2510 are shock, shock, and shock - biased upward respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have stabilized in shock [2]. - The supply of rebar has contracted with a decline in production, but the demand has weakened more significantly, and the inventory has started to accumulate. The downstream industries have not improved, and the rebar demand is prone to seasonal weakening, which continues to drag down the fundamentals of rebar. However, the substantial progress in Sino - US trade negotiations has warmed up the market sentiment, and steel prices are expected to stabilize in shock in the short - term under the support of positive sentiment. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is shock - biased upward. The reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that market sentiment has warmed up and steel prices have stabilized in shock. The calculation of price changes and the definitions of shock - biased upward/downward are also provided [2]. Market Driving Logic - The spot price of steel remained stable over the weekend. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has weakened, with a decline in production and more obvious weakening in demand, and inventory accumulation. The downstream industries have not improved, and the rebar demand is prone to seasonal weakening, which continues to drag down the fundamentals of rebar and put pressure on steel prices. The positive factor is the substantial progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, which has warmed up the market sentiment, and steel prices are expected to stabilize in shock in the short - term [3].
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250508
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-08 02:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The steel price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level due to the unimproved supply - demand pattern of rebar, with the supply remaining at a relatively high level and the demand having limited sustainability [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating with a slight upward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, leading to the low - level oscillation of steel prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Although there are positive domestic and foreign macro factors, the futures price of steel products has fallen after rising. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. The pre - holiday restocking led to a significant increase in weekly apparent demand, but the situation of major downstream industries has not improved, and the demand is not sustainable. On the contrary, the supply remains at a relatively high level, and the improvement of the fundamentals is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the production and sales data of rebar released by SteelHome today [3]
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250506
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-06 03:33
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory with a slight upward bias respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is stable and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2]. - The steel prices are under pressure due to the high supply pressure and the poor sustainability of demand improvement, but are supported by the expectation of crude steel reduction policies. Therefore, rebar prices will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to demand changes [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward bias. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the stable supply - demand pattern and low - level oscillation of steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - During the holiday, steel spot prices remained stable. Before the holiday, the supply of rebar increased and remained at a high level for the year, while the demand increased due to downstream replenishment, but the improvement in demand was not sustainable. The supply pressure remained high, and the fundamentals of rebar did not improve substantially. The positive factor is the expectation of crude steel reduction policies, so rebar prices will continue to oscillate at a low level [3].