事实上，伊朗战争冲突这种级别的事件，站在年初，谁也预料不到（包括川宝本人，也已经有无数证据表明，这是一个心血来潮、缺乏推演的临 时决策），而你对一季度的收益是否满意，可能取决于两点，一是你在持仓上是否为不同的场景做好了提前的准备，二是你是否在年初就保持了 相对合理的预期。 大家周日晚上好，一季度很快要结束了，先看一张截图，来自咱们年度展望《 2026年金融市场的十大预测 》中的开篇，下图。 怎么样？看完是否有一种隐隐的痛？ | 2024年 2022年 2022年 2021年 2020年 2019年 2018年 2017年 2016年 2015年 2014年 2013年 2012年 2017年 2010年 2005年 2008年 2007年 2005 | 2025年 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全球股票 21.57% 15.73% 20.00% -19.80% 16.80% 14.33% 24.05% -11.18% 21.62% | | | 5.63% | | -4.26% 2.10% 20.25% 13.43% -9.41% 10.42 ...

Market Overview - The market today showed poor profitability, with 90% of A-shares declining and only the communication sector rising [2] - Hong Kong stocks fell across the board, with innovative drug stocks dropping nearly 5% [2] - Convertible bonds, which had been performing well this year, plummeted over 3%, indicating significant institutional selling [2] Key Stock Movements - The stock price of Cambrian (寒武纪) surpassed 1400 yuan, briefly exceeding that of Moutai (茅台) and reaching a peak of 1465 yuan, marking a significant milestone in A-shares [4] - Cambrian's stock has surged from around 200 yuan since September last year, reflecting a strong market interest [4] - Moutai's stock fell over 2%, trading around 1450 yuan, allowing Cambrian to claim the title of "highest stock price" in A-shares [4][6] Technology Sector Insights - The extreme bull market in technology stocks is driven by both fundamental and speculative logic, with light modules rising over 7% today and doubling in annual returns [8][9] - The performance of Nvidia and A-share light modules from 2022 to present shows a clear trend of high growth, particularly since the emergence of AI technologies [9][11] - The current bull market in technology stocks is supported by strong profit growth across various companies, indicating a solid underlying logic [11] Investment Strategy Recommendations - A balanced investment approach is recommended over chasing hot stocks, especially for those less familiar with the industry [11] - Maintaining a balanced portfolio can yield satisfactory returns even without capitalizing on structural opportunities [11][14] - The Shanghai Composite Index, which includes stock dividends, has shown competitive performance compared to bond indices, suggesting that a balanced stock-bond allocation can be effective [14] Convertible Bonds and Small Cap Stocks - Convertible bonds experienced their first significant correction since April 7, with a drop exceeding 3% [18][20] - Small-cap stocks also fell over 2%, indicating a shift in investment focus among rational institutional investors towards safer assets with fundamental support [20][22] - The supply-demand imbalance in the convertible bond market has driven prices to extreme levels, raising questions about when this trend will reverse [22][23] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market pressure may shift towards small-cap stocks as core assets begin to show sustained profitability [26] - Historical patterns suggest that as core assets perform well, liquidity may be drawn away from smaller stocks, impacting their performance [26] - Investors are advised to consider their risk tolerance and investment capabilities, with recommendations for diversified and balanced asset allocation strategies [29][30]

今晚加更一篇，聊一下基金投顾的事情，明晚也准备再加更一篇，主要是聊下昨天晚上，金融监管总局发布的，关于允许保险公司调整万能险产 品最低保证利率的重磅通知，兹事体大。 聊基金投顾，是因为 从去年4月开始跟投表韭系列组合以来 ，正好满1年了，做个总结和复盘，对个人投资者朋友而言，可以看下跟投思路，对 同业小伙伴而言，也和大家分享一些肤浅的感悟。 不知道从何聊起，就写成一篇流水账了，一条一条往下聊，聊到哪儿算哪儿。 文章最后，有抽奖环节 ，奖品由主理人平台国联证券提供，大家记得看到最后。 ...... 所以，跟投基金投顾这个事情，于我个人而言，肯定不是1年或2年的事情，假设能活到中国人的平均寿命，那毛估估， 至少投个30-40年，应该 没问题 。 所以，这个周年的回顾，打算每年写一篇，到时候写满30年的时候，就能自费出一本书了，《"基"荡三十年》。 2、组合业绩观察。 投资这件事上，大家最关心的，莫过于业绩——虽然，实际上，从长期收益的角度来看，同"资产配置"、"仓位选择"相比，底层具体标的的表现 差异，其实关系没有想象的那么大。 不过，还是帮大家跟踪一下吧，以下数据，均来自于天天基金app，截至今天。 整体来看， ...