在主题型基金轮番登顶、热门板块快速切换的市场环境下，仍有基金经理始终锚定均衡配置的底层逻 辑，在攻守之间构筑起穿越波动的价值护城河。近日，证券时报记者采访了上银基金权益投研部投资副 总监、基金经理赵治烨。他同时覆盖消费、科技、周期等多个领域，始终以"安全边际"为核心构建组 合。 在赵治烨看来，热点驱动已成为A股的重要特征，投资者更需在攻守之间保持平衡。下半年，他认为顺 周期板块在产能出清和政策加码的推动下具备反转契机；科技领域有望受益于海外AI的正向循环以 及"十五五"规划的催化，迎来阶段性机会；而红利与消费板块将起到防御和平抑组合波动的作用。在他 看来，未来市场将以结构性行情为主，均衡配置才是穿越波动的关键。 坚持均衡型投资 赵治烨拥有14年证券从业经验和超10年的公募基金管理经验，是市场上少数同时覆盖消费、科技、周期 等多领域的灵活配置型主动权益基金经理，擅长在不同板块间动态平衡收益与风险。他在管的产品之一 ——上银新兴价值混合A自2014年5月6日成立以来至2025年6月30日，收益率达236.82%，为同期业绩比 较基准的2倍以上。 毕业于北京大学微电子专业的赵治烨，早期在中国银河证券任职，2014年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in A-shares has led to a rapid increase in the net value of newly established active equity funds, indicating a strong bullish sentiment among fund managers towards technology sectors such as computing power, chips, and semiconductors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Performance of Newly Established Funds - Several newly established active equity funds have shown significant returns, with funds like Xinao Advantage Industry A and China Merchants Technology Smart A achieving returns over 9% in a week [1][4]. - As of August 15, the Wande Mixed Equity Fund Index rose by 9.89% in the past month, with over 30% of mixed equity funds outperforming the average return of their peers [3][4]. - A total of 28 mixed equity funds recorded returns exceeding 25% in the last month, showcasing the effectiveness of their rapid investment strategies [3][4]. Group 2: Fund Manager Strategies - Fund managers are likely employing aggressive building strategies, heavily investing in popular sectors, which has resulted in a rapid increase in net values during the building phase [4][5]. - The strategy of quick building allows funds to capitalize on market momentum, but it also carries risks if market conditions change unexpectedly [5][6]. Group 3: Sector Allocation Trends - Active equity funds are increasing their allocation to technology, new energy, and financial sectors while reducing exposure to underperforming sectors like military, manufacturing, and consumer goods [7][8]. - The focus on technology and new energy sectors is driven by sustained industry growth and supportive policies, particularly in AI computing power and semiconductors [8][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The public funds are expected to maintain a high interest in technology, finance, and "anti-involution" sectors, with analysts suggesting that low-valuation financial sectors may see recovery [8][9]. - There is a recommendation for balanced allocation strategies to mitigate potential volatility and rapid market rotations, especially in crowded trades like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through key levels of 3500, 3600, and 3700 points in recent weeks [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Strategies - Newly established active equity funds have accelerated their investment pace, with some funds achieving returns exceeding 9% in a short period [2][6]. - The Wind data indicates that several newly launched funds, such as Xinao Advantage Industry A and China Merchants Technology Smart A, have reported weekly returns of 9.14% and 9.06%, respectively [9][7]. - Over 30% of mixed equity funds outperformed their peers, with 28 funds achieving returns over 25% in the past month [5][4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Sector Allocation - Active equity funds have increased their overall positions, particularly in the technology sector, reflecting a positive sentiment towards this area [12][13]. - The allocation to technology, new energy, and financial sectors has increased, while traditional sectors like military and consumer goods have seen reductions [12][13]. - The current stock position of active equity funds is at 85.84%, with a slight weekly increase, indicating a bullish market outlook [12]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The focus on technology and financial sectors is expected to remain high, with analysts suggesting that low-valuation financial stocks may see recovery [14][15]. - There is a recommendation for balanced allocation strategies to mitigate potential market volatility, especially in crowded sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals [15][10]. - The ongoing trends in AI and semiconductor industries are anticipated to attract further investment, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of high-performing funds implementing "purchase limits" reflects a shift from scale-oriented strategies to investor return-oriented strategies, aimed at protecting existing fund holders' interests amidst a hot market [1][3]. Group 1: Fund Purchase Limits - Several high-performing funds have recently announced limits on large purchases, including the Caizhong Securities Asset Management's Digital Economy Mixed Fund, which has a return rate of 56.37% year-to-date as of August 18 [1]. - The Great Wall Pharmaceutical Industry Selected Mixed Fund and the CCB Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund have also set purchase limits, with year-to-date return rates of 135.09% and 49.74%, respectively [2]. - The招商成长量化选股 fund has implemented its second purchase limit this year, with a return rate of 29.55% as of August 18 [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Purchase Limits - Fund managers indicate that limiting purchases is necessary to protect performance, as large inflows at high net asset values can dilute returns and lead to inefficient cash management [2][3]. - Controlling fund size is crucial to avoid operational constraints on portfolio adjustments, especially when the fund size exceeds the manager's capability, which could lead to significant net asset value fluctuations [3]. Group 3: Market Focus and Alternatives - The limited funds primarily focus on popular sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, technology, and military industries, which are currently crowded, suggesting that now may not be the optimal time to invest [3]. - Fund companies are exploring other niche sectors and offering products like "fixed income plus" and FOFs to provide investors with a balanced selection [3][4]. - There is a growing interest in "fixed income plus" products and FOFs, with over 90% of FOFs achieving positive returns this year, making them an attractive option for investors seeking stable returns [4].

Group 1 - The article discusses the current market sentiment, highlighting that a strong performance in the stock market during challenging times can significantly boost investor confidence [1][2] - It identifies two main themes in the market: interest rate cuts and the behavior of capital flows, particularly from southbound funds [3][8] - The article notes that southbound funds sold over 18 billion, marking the third-largest single-day net sell since September of the previous year, while the Hang Seng Index showed a divergence by continuing to rise [3][5] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the global stock market's rebound, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 showing significant gains based on expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7][9] - It explains that the recent strong performance of the US dollar led to a sell-off in Hong Kong dollar assets, prompting the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to intervene by buying HKD [8][9] - The article highlights that the A-share market is primarily driven by sentiment and capital, with a notable recovery in market mood as the Hang Seng Index rose [11][12] Group 3 - The article presents data on margin financing, indicating a pattern of consistent net buying followed by a reversal, suggesting that there is still significant capital waiting to enter the market [15][17] - It discusses the relationship between long-term bonds and the stock market, noting that bond prices acted as a leading indicator for stock movements [18][20] - The article concludes with a recommendation for investors to maintain a diversified and balanced asset allocation strategy in light of global interest rate cut trends [21][22] Group 4 - The article mentions that gold and US Treasuries are benefiting from the interest rate cut narrative, with gold prices rising significantly [25][26] - It highlights the performance of gold ETFs, noting that they are among the few low-fee options available in the market [28] - The article discusses the bond market's current sentiment and the potential for future bond purchases depending on new bond issuance [30][32]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a significant reversal in the afternoon, with all three major indices turning positive, supported by strong performances in the military, precious metals, and robotics sectors [1][5][4] - The total trading volume in the two markets decreased to 1.49 trillion yuan, indicating a potential need for market consolidation after continuous gains [4] - Analysts suggest that the fundamental logic supporting the current rally remains unchanged, and a moderate "cooling" could benefit long-term market stability [4] Group 2 - The reversal in A-shares was influenced by several positive factors, including an increase in the RMB exchange rate and a rise in foreign investment risk appetite following weaker-than-expected U.S. employment data [6][7] - The new tax policy on government bonds has led to increased demand for high-dividend assets, boosting market sentiment [7] - The military sector surged due to significant media coverage of advancements in unmanned combat technology, contributing to its leading position in the market [7] Group 3 - Recent data shows that domestic public and private fund managers have increased their average positions, indicating a positive outlook for the market [8] - Over 62% of large private equity funds are maintaining heavy or fully invested positions, reflecting confidence in future market performance [8] - Historical patterns suggest that the current market phase may align with the transition between five-year plans, potentially signaling the beginning of a bull market [10][13] Group 4 - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in early to mid-August due to earnings disclosures and tariff implementations, but a policy-driven rally could lead to new highs later in the month [16] - Investment strategies should focus on balanced allocation, considering both defensive and offensive positions to navigate increased volatility [29] - Key sectors for investment include technology growth, mechanical and electrical equipment, and high-dividend defensive stocks, which are anticipated to perform well amid market fluctuations [29]

Core Viewpoint - Public fund institutions are optimistic about the market outlook and advocate for balanced allocation to respond to industry rotation [1] Group 1 - Public fund institutions believe that the market will continue to show positive trends in the near future [1] - The strategy of balanced allocation is recommended to mitigate risks associated with industry rotation [1] - There is an emphasis on the importance of adapting investment strategies in response to changing market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the investment market, focusing on the performance of various sectors and the implications of regulatory changes on investment strategies. Group 1: Insurance and Investment Strategies - The podcast highlights the rapid growth of the insurance sector since 2022 and the underlying logic behind this trend [5] - It discusses the regulatory push to lower the insurance preset interest rates starting in 2024, which is expected to impact investment decisions [6] - The assessment of state-owned insurance companies' evaluation mechanisms is seen as beneficial for the stock market [6] - Recommendations for investment allocation are provided, suggesting diversification and balanced approaches rather than chasing hot stocks [20] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The equity market experienced significant declines, with over 80% of stocks falling and a median drop of approximately 1.45% [10] - External factors, particularly U.S.-China trade negotiations, are influencing market sentiment, with the U.S. gaining a psychological advantage [12] - Internal market dynamics show a cooling of "anti-involution" trading, leading to declines in previously high-performing sectors like steel and coal [14] - Commodity prices have returned to previous levels, indicating a correction in the market [15] Group 3: Specific Stock Insights - The stock of a pharmaceutical company, referred to as "药X," fell by 5.6% following a planned share placement, reflecting market reactions to corporate actions [21] - The article suggests maintaining good relations with company management for better insights into stock movements [22] Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The company advises waiting for upcoming earnings reports from major firms like Apple before making further investment decisions [23] - It notes that some fund companies have relaxed purchase limits on certain products, indicating a shift in market accessibility [24]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the overall risk level in the market is showing a mild improvement, with the risk system score rising to 49.80 from 45.39, reflecting a shift towards a more balanced market sentiment amid economic recovery and policy effects [2][3] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index valuation has increased to 55.08, indicating a rise in the overall valuation center, with certain cyclical industries experiencing higher valuation rebounds compared to consumer sectors [2] - The market expectation score has risen to 56.00, suggesting reduced pressure for stable growth in the second half of the year, while external environment fluctuations are anticipated to impact exports [3] Group 2 - The bond market risk system score stands at 73.3, with GDP growth in the first half of the year meeting market expectations, indicating resilience in the Chinese economy despite complex external conditions [9] - The second quarter's GDP growth was 5.3%, with significant contributions from final consumption and net exports, although internal demand showed signs of pressure [10][11] - The outlook for the second half of the year suggests potential economic slowdown, with external demand risks and limited incremental policies expected to impact growth [12] Group 3 - The black commodity sector's risk system score has increased to 63.6, indicating a medium risk level, driven by domestic factors and significant government infrastructure investments [15] - The recent volatility in the black commodity sector is influenced by supply-side policies and large-scale infrastructure projects, although the balance of supply and demand remains a critical factor for future price stability [15]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a situation where the index is rising, but many investors are not seeing corresponding gains in their portfolios, indicating a disconnect between index performance and individual stock performance [3]. Market Analysis - The index has reached around 3550 points, with a previous prediction that 3674 points would not be the peak for the year proving accurate [3]. - The recent market rally has been primarily driven by the financial sector, particularly bank stocks, which have significantly contributed to the index's rise [3]. - Many retail investors are feeling frustrated as their holdings have not appreciated in value, despite the index climbing [3]. Investment Opportunities - There is a high probability that undervalued sectors, particularly those with solid fundamentals, will gain traction as the banking sector's valuation increases [4]. - The underlying logic of the market rebound is driven by policy support and economic recovery expectations, suggesting that other sectors may also benefit from this trend [4]. - Market dynamics indicate that sectors currently overlooked may become the focus in the future, emphasizing the importance of holding fundamentally sound stocks [4]. Strategic Recommendations - Investors should maintain a balanced portfolio and closely follow the main market trends, particularly those influenced by policy and economic recovery [5]. - Patience is advised, as market cycles will eventually favor different sectors, and staying invested in solid companies may yield returns over time [4][5].