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数据真空笼罩!9月非农料推迟发布,市场疯寻替代数据
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-10-03 03:37
Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of a key labor market report, raising concerns about the reliability of official economic statistics from the Trump era [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not release its monthly data as scheduled, leaving global markets and the Federal Reserve without crucial signals regarding the health of the U.S. economy [1] - The shutdown has intensified the chaos at the BLS, which has faced decades of funding cuts that hinder data collection, and the recent firing of its director after a poor employment report [1] Group 2 - In the absence of official data, the Federal Reserve is relying on alternative sources, including the "Beige Book," which compiles economic conditions through interviews and surveys [2] - The latest Beige Book indicated a weak economic picture, with consumer spending flat to declining and layoffs increasing [2] - Private data providers are gaining attention, with ADP reporting a reduction of 32,000 jobs in September, marking the largest decline in two and a half years [2] Group 3 - Economists suggest that a "stagnant" labor market is contributing to the poor employment data, with layoffs near historical lows and resignation rates at their lowest since the beginning of the year [3] - Uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs and immigration policies has led to a lack of fluidity in the job market, raising concerns among some economists [3] - Investors are also examining data from LinkedIn and Indeed for more clarity on the labor market [3] Group 4 - Indeed's daily job postings index, which tracks recruitment ads on one of the largest job sites, indicates stagnation, with job postings in September falling to the lowest level since February 2021 [4] - The labor market may appear calm on the surface, but underlying it is a lack of vitality, suggesting a cautious approach to hiring [4]
美联储“褐皮书”:美国物价普遍上涨,与加征关税相关
第一财经· 2025-09-04 00:48
Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that price increases related to tariffs have been observed across all Federal Reserve districts in the U.S. from mid-July to the end of August, leading to a stagnation or decline in consumer spending due to rising costs outpacing wage growth [3][4][5]. Economic Impact - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" report, compiled from surveys of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks, highlights significant price increases in inputs, particularly in insurance, utilities, and technology services, with many companies passing these costs onto consumers [3][4]. - The average trade-weighted tariff rate for all products imported into the U.S. has risen sharply to 20.11% as of August 7, compared to just 2.44% at the beginning of the year, reflecting the government's aggressive tariff policies [5]. Labor Market Conditions - Employment levels across 11 Federal Reserve districts have remained largely unchanged, with one district reporting a slight decline in employment. Seven districts noted a reluctance among businesses to hire due to weakened demand or increased uncertainty, while two districts experienced an increase in layoffs [4].
【环球财经】美联储“褐皮书”:美国物价普遍上涨 与加征关税相关
Xin Hua She· 2025-09-03 22:39
新华财经纽约9月3日电(记者徐静)美国联邦储备委员会3日发布的全国经济形势调查报告显示,自7月 中旬到8月底,美国所有联邦储备区物价均出现与加征关税相关的价格上涨。 美联储每年发布8次"褐皮书",通过联邦储备银行对全美经济形势进行摸底。该报告是美联储货币政策 会议的重要参考资料。 今年以来,美国政府不断挥舞关税"大棒",对贸易伙伴征收更高关税。7月31日,美国公布69个贸易伙 伴输美商品适用的关税税率,从10%至41%不等。由世界贸易组织和国际货币基金组织联合开发的关税 跟踪工具显示,截至8月7日,美国对全球所有产品的贸易加权平均关税税率升至20.11%,大幅高于年 初的2.44%。 (文章来源:新华社) 报告说,由于经济不确定性增大和关税税率升高,许多家庭工资增长未能跟上物价上涨的步伐,导致所 有联邦储备区消费者支出持平或下降。 劳动力市场方面,11个联邦储备区整体就业水平几无变化,1个地区就业水平略有下降。由于需求减弱 或不确定性增加,7个联邦储备区企业不愿招聘员工,2个地区裁员人数增多。 根据美国"联邦储备法",美国全国划分为12个联邦储备区,每区设立一家联邦储备银行。该报告根据12 家联邦储备银行的最 ...
美联储“褐皮书”:美国经济不确定性居高位 关税推高物价
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-05 10:11
物价方面,4月下旬以来物价略有上涨。各联邦储备区内对成本和物价今后将以更快速度上涨的预期广 泛存在。一些联邦储备区预计将出现显著或实质性成本增加。所有联邦储备区均报告,关税上调在给成 本和物价带来上涨压力。 根据美国"联邦储备法",美国全国划分为12个联邦储备区,每区设立一家联邦储备银行。该报告根据12 家联邦储备银行的最新调查结果编制而成,也称"褐皮书"。 报告显示,自4月下旬以来,美国经济活动整体出现小幅下降,半数联邦储备区经济活动出现轻微或温 和下降。所有联邦储备区经济和政策不确定性均处于高位,导致企业和家庭决策变得迟疑和谨慎。制造 业活动轻度下降。消费者支出情况混杂不一,大多数联邦储备区出现小幅下降或没有变化,但一些联邦 储备区对预计受关税影响物品的支出增加。 报告说,整体而言,前景展望依然为轻度悲观和不确定,与前一次报告相比相对没有变化。 就业方面,大多联邦储备区就业状况与此前相比变化不大,但所有联邦储备区劳动力需求均有所下降, 体现在工作时间和加班减少、招聘暂停和计划裁员等。 新华社纽约6月4日电(记者刘亚南)美国联邦储备委员会4日发布的全国经济形势调查报告显示,美国 经济和政策的不确定性处于高位 ...