今日没有特别需要关注的数据，受圣诞节假期影响，全球多个主要金融市场休市。 美元指数 美元指数昨日震荡盘整，日线微幅收涨，现汇价交投于97.90附近。清淡的节假日市场交投氛围中，除 空头回补对汇价构成了一定的支撑外，时段内美国公布的初请失业金数据表现良好是支撑汇价反弹的主 要原因。不过，美联储的降息预期升温限制了汇价的反弹空间。今日关注98.50附近的压力情况，下方 支撑在97.50附近。 欧元/美元 欧元昨日震荡下行，日线小幅收跌，现汇价交投于1.1780附近。除获利回吐和1.1800关口附近所形成的 技术面卖盘对汇价构成了一定的打压外，美元指数在良好初请失业金数据的支撑下止跌企稳也对欧元构 成了一定的打压。不过，对欧洲央行降息周期或已接近尾声的预期限制了汇价的回调空间。今日关注 1.1850附近的压力情况，下方支撑在1.1700附近。 英镑/美元 英镑昨日震荡盘整，日线小幅收跌，现汇价交投于1.3500附近。除获利回吐对汇价构成了一定的打压 外，美元指数在空头回补和良好经济数据的支撑下止跌企稳也对英镑构成了一定的打压。不过，美联储 的降息预期升温和英国央行降息接近尾声的预期限制了汇价的回调空间。今日关注1. ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of a key labor market report, raising concerns about the reliability of official economic statistics from the Trump era [1] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will not release its monthly data as scheduled, leaving global markets and the Federal Reserve without crucial signals regarding the health of the U.S. economy [1] - The shutdown has intensified the chaos at the BLS, which has faced decades of funding cuts that hinder data collection, and the recent firing of its director after a poor employment report [1] Group 2 - In the absence of official data, the Federal Reserve is relying on alternative sources, including the "Beige Book," which compiles economic conditions through interviews and surveys [2] - The latest Beige Book indicated a weak economic picture, with consumer spending flat to declining and layoffs increasing [2] - Private data providers are gaining attention, with ADP reporting a reduction of 32,000 jobs in September, marking the largest decline in two and a half years [2] Group 3 - Economists suggest that a "stagnant" labor market is contributing to the poor employment data, with layoffs near historical lows and resignation rates at their lowest since the beginning of the year [3] - Uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariffs and immigration policies has led to a lack of fluidity in the job market, raising concerns among some economists [3] - Investors are also examining data from LinkedIn and Indeed for more clarity on the labor market [3] Group 4 - Indeed's daily job postings index, which tracks recruitment ads on one of the largest job sites, indicates stagnation, with job postings in September falling to the lowest level since February 2021 [4] - The labor market may appear calm on the surface, but underlying it is a lack of vitality, suggesting a cautious approach to hiring [4]

Group 1 - In September, U.S. employers announced layoffs of 54,064, a decrease of 37% from August and a 26% drop from the same month last year [1] - Year-to-date layoffs reached 946,426, the highest since the pandemic in 2020, and the fifth highest in the company's 36-year history [1] - Year-to-date layoffs increased by 55% compared to the same period last year and are 24% higher than the total for 2024 [1] Group 2 - The services sector announced the most layoffs in September, totaling 6,290, a significant rise from 1,862 in August and 2,996 in September 2024 [1] - Year-to-date layoffs in the services sector reached 61,590, reflecting a 64% increase year-on-year [1] - The energy sector reported 5,807 layoffs in September, bringing the year-to-date total to 14,811 [1] Group 3 - Major reasons for layoffs include DOGE behavior, market and economic conditions, and technological updates, with 293,753 layoffs attributed to DOGE behavior and 208,227 to market conditions [2] - Employers plan to add 204,939 new positions this year, a 58% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to fewer seasonal hiring plans [2] - The number of seasonal hiring plans tracked last month was 100,800, significantly lower than 401,850 at the beginning of October 2024 [2]

Core Insights - U.S. employers reported a decrease in layoffs in September, indicating a potential stabilization in the labor market [1] - However, hiring plans for the year are at their lowest level since 2009, suggesting a slowdown in job creation [1] - The labor market is experiencing a standstill due to declining demand and supply of workers, influenced by policy changes and technological advancements [1] Employment Trends - Layoffs announced by U.S. employers in September were fewer compared to previous months, reflecting a more stable employment environment [1] - The current hiring plans are the lowest since 2009, highlighting a significant reduction in workforce expansion efforts [1] Labor Market Dynamics - The balance between labor demand and supply is shifting, with both factors declining [1] - The changes in the labor market are attributed to advancements in technology and evolving policy frameworks [1]

Economic Data Summary - The latest ADP report indicates an addition of +54K new private-sector jobs in August, missing expectations by 20K [1] - The four-month average for private-sector job growth is +55K, a significant decline from the previous average of +102K [2] - Large corporations added only +18K jobs, while medium-sized companies contributed +25K and small firms added +12K [3] Industry Performance - The Leisure/Hospitality sector saw the highest job growth with +50K new jobs, followed by Construction at +16K and Professional/Business Services at +15K [4] - The Trade/Transportation/Utilities sector experienced the largest decline with -17K jobs, along with Education/Healthcare losing -12K jobs [4][5] Labor Market Insights - Job Stayers experienced an average earnings gain of +4.4%, while Job Changers saw a +7.1% increase, indicating a stagnant labor market [6] - Initial Jobless Claims rose to +237K, the highest since June, while Continuing Jobless Claims decreased to 1.940 million [6][7] Productivity and Labor Costs - Q2 Productivity increased to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of +3.3%, the strongest since Q3 2024, while Unit Labor Costs rose by only +1.0% [7] Trade Deficit - The U.S. Trade Deficit widened to -$78.3 billion in July, a significant increase from the previous month's -$59.1 billion [8]

Core Viewpoint - The non-farm payroll report indicates a significant downward revision of previous data, suggesting a stagnation in the labor market, which may lead to a reconsideration of the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [1] Group 1 - Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist at Annex Wealth Management, suggests that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had anticipated the current non-farm data, he might have opposed the decision to keep rates unchanged [1] - The non-farm employment report shows a stark reality with no embellishments, highlighting the challenges in the labor market [1] - Historical patterns indicate that the Federal Reserve made a mistake last year by not lowering rates in July, which led to an urgent rate cut in the following month [1] Group 2 - There is a concern that the Federal Reserve may repeat past mistakes by failing to adjust rates in response to the current labor market conditions [1]